***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

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Farmer1906
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In reply to redline248 • 7:30p, 2/12/24
AG
Just because he's not a 300 M player (maybe he would be if he hit the market at 29, not 31) doesn't means he's top a great player. I just think his ceiling is lower than some of the top top tier.

I've said this before and I think it'll stick with it. Pretty much any order for Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, & Tucker works. They just need to be in the top 4. I'd probably go Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Tucker if I'm setting the lineup tonight.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to iBrad • 7:31p, 2/12/24
AG
Check who the Braves or Dodgers stick in their 9 hole before saying that.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 7:43p, 2/12/24
AG
The configuration of the top 4 is one with which you can go around and around (and I have).

As much as I want to stick Yordan in that primo 2-spot in the order for volume outcome, there is one thing that keeps bringing me back to Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker in the 2-3-4: Bregman's collapsed splits against LHP.

Despite the insanity of it, managers keep going to LHP against Yordan and Tucker late in games. If you put Bregman between them, the Bregman gets more close and late ABs in a severe platoon diaadvantage (assuming the last 2 seasons are not a fluke but a developing trend).

Despite this factor, you never see managers go to the LHP when Bregman hits in front of those guys. So I would rather Bregman give tough ABs and draw walks in the 2 hole and let Yordan and Tuck punish managers late in games when they bring inferior LHRPs against our big boys with ducks on the pond.

This same reason occasionally makes me ponder putting Chas in the 5 spot behind Yordan and Tucker. Then again by the tine LHRPs get to their third batter, the damage is usually already done.
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iBrad
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 7:50p, 2/12/24
AG
I did say arguably. Also, if Meyers gets going and Pena continues to lack power, we could see Pena at the bottom of the lineup.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to iBrad • 7:56p, 2/12/24
AG
Regardless, I think Outman/Lux & Kelenic/Arcia are both better than Pena/Meyers.
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The Porkchop Express
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8:31p, 2/12/24
AG
Still think there is some major brake tapping that should happen in the fandom about what to expect from Yanier Diaz in 2024. He's never played more than 104 games in any season major or minor and never caught more than 60 games. What does it look like when he as the first nagging injury? The first prolonged slump when teams find a real weak point and keep throwing right at it? He certainly has the potential to be an All-Star and all that, but the guy also had just 11 walks in 377 plate appearances last season.

Excited as heck to see him get the starting gig, but the disappointment of '23 Pena is still fresh on my mind.
Life is better with a beagle
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Farmer1906
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 8:34p, 2/12/24
AG
Yup. Diaz is far from a lock. That's why I mentioned the other end of the spectrum (Baez).

But Yainer has a better hit and power tool than Pena. He also had a better rookie season on the whole.

I'm bullish on Pena having a nice year 3 where to takes a solid step forward to above avg. Maybe like a 2021-22 Chas.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:30p, 2/12/24
Farmer1906 said:
If he plays anything like the last 2 seasons, he'll crush this projection.


Yeahh, I thought a projection of .819 OPS was way too low for 'Tuve.

He's one of those guys who I just believe can do whatever he wants. He's on record saying an OPS of .900 is the new BA of .300, and barring injury, I think he'll do it easily. He's hit OPS>.900 5 times of the last 8 years. One of those was COVID year and another was knee issue year.
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Farmer1906
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10:30p, 2/12/24
AG
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redline248
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:41a, 2/13/24
AG
Here's to that track staying straight and free of debris
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EastCoastAgNc
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4:48a, 2/13/24
AG
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Dirty Mike and the Boys
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5:52a, 2/13/24
AG
Sidenote, that retro Marlins uni looks so good.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 6:27a, 2/13/24
AG
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Wabs
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 6:28a, 2/13/24
AG
Nevermind.....Farmer found it. 3 Years at 42 sounds like a decent deal for the Giants....
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tjack16
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6:29a, 2/13/24
AG
3/42 seems kinda high for him.

I would have been okay with 3 years but not for 14 AAV.
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EastCoastAgNc
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7:18a, 2/13/24
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 7:18a, 2/13/24
AG
Guess that means they're out on Chapman.
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All I do is Nguyen
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7:35a, 2/13/24
Pitchers and catcher report tomorrow!!
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
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EastCoastAgNc
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8:16a, 2/13/24
AG
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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8:41a, 2/13/24
AG
Anyone know when single game tix go on sale?
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gambochaman
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8:53a, 2/13/24
AG
March 1st I believe
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EastCoastAgNc
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9:10a, 2/13/24
AG
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tjack16
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In reply to gambochaman • 9:32a, 2/13/24
AG
gambochaman said:
March 1st I believe


Wonder why ours is so late? Most other teams have their single games on sale already
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Farmer1906
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In reply to tjack16 • 9:42a, 2/13/24
AG
tjack16 said:
gambochaman said:
March 1st I believe


Wonder why ours is so late? Most other teams have their single games on sale already


Trying to sell as many season tickets, maybe? I know I've been getting emails and emails on partial plans. Crane said we sold a record # of season tickets (over 22k). 22k per game is more than what the White Sox, Tigers, Pirates, Rays, Royals, Marlins, & As averaged.
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Farmer1906
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9:55a, 2/13/24
AG


The closer we get, the more I am starting to think the answer is Framber. I think Tucker is the best of the bunch, but I don't really love our SP pipeline.
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Sher Thing
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10:09a, 2/13/24
AG
I think it has to be Tucker. 27 years old and has some of his best years ahead of him. Not sure you could say that about the other two.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Sher Thing • 10:19a, 2/13/24
AG
Sher Thing said:
I think it has to be Tucker. 27 years old and has some of his best years ahead of him. Not sure you could say that about the other two.
Framber is too inconsistent. It'll be interesting to see how he does without Maldy who has pretty much been his security blanket these last few years. +1 on Tucker.
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Farmer1906
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10:44a, 2/13/24
AG
Framber will hit the market at 32. One year older than Snell & Monty. I think what they get will be about the market Framber gets. If we feel like he can keep pumping out 3+ WAR seasons then 5/115 type deal seems like something we'd be willing to do. I don't think Crane is willing to meet what Tucker is going to demand on the open market.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:46a, 2/13/24
I'm not trusting meathead Framber into his mid 30's. I'd be more likely to trade him than extend him. Not sure it matters much, all 3 seem interested in market prices and that isn't typically the type of deal we make, at least not in that price range.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:48a, 2/13/24
Farmer1906 said:
Framber will hit the market at 32. One year older than Snell & Monty. I think what they get will be about the market Framber gets. If we feel like he can keep pumping out 3+ WAR seasons then 5/115 type deal seems like something we'd be willing to do. I don't think Crane is willing to meet what Tucker is going to demand on the open market.
I will also say this, the advantage to signing Monty or Snell is then I can turn around and trade Framber for a bounty. Monty for 5/$125-150 + what I get in a Framber trade is greater than Framber for 5/115.
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Marvin
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10:52a, 2/13/24
AG
Mrs. Marvin and I watched that discussion last night while we were searching for a baseball fix. A valid point was that, of those three, Bregman would likely be the cheapest even if he might also be third in importance. Interesting puzzle to solve.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 11:00a, 2/13/24
AG
MaxPower said:
Farmer1906 said:
Framber will hit the market at 32. One year older than Snell & Monty. I think what they get will be about the market Framber gets. If we feel like he can keep pumping out 3+ WAR seasons then 5/115 type deal seems like something we'd be willing to do. I don't think Crane is willing to meet what Tucker is going to demand on the open market.
I will also say this, the advantage to signing Monty or Snell is then I can turn around and trade Framber for a bounty. Monty for 5/$125-150 + what I get in a Framber trade is greater than Framber for 5/115.
I get what you're saying, but you get Framber for more like 7/145 from age 30-36 since he's under control for 2 more seasons. He also has a track record of excellence while Monty just had a peak season. ZIPS has Monty at 7.2 WAR over the next 3 vs Framber at 8.4 WAR.

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texasaggie2015
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11:14a, 2/13/24
AG
I will say.. it's interesting that out of the folks I talk to that are close to the organization, nobody has expressed any concern whatsoever about Framber. Now obviously they don't tell me everything. But they seem to think last year was just a rough patch and that he'll get back on track just fine. I know he had a nagging injury of some sort.
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Eso si, Que es
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11:17a, 2/13/24
Finances aside, it is Tucker everyday of the week, he is the standout player.
Financially, I think Framber gives you the most WAR per $ based on potential deal values.

However, for the culture of the Astros, I think it is Bregman. He is part of the core that has created the culture that has put us in 7 consecutive ALCS. If you keep the culture, you keep the team consistent and cohesive. I can't count the number of MLB stars who have said the culture is just different here, and it has endured through Hinch, Lunhow, Dusty, Click, Brown and now Espada. Some recent comments about our culture have come from JV during his return, Correa during the ALCS in 22, Hader during his announcement, Big Papi every time he has a mic.

I am not saying Tucker or Framber haven't bought into the culture, but it seems Altuve and Bregman have driven the culture more than others. It is the team culture that has endured the departure of Springer, Correa, JV, Cole, Keuchel, Morton, and Yuli. It felt like Yuli, Springer, and probably Correa helped create the culture along with Altuve and Bregman, but if it comes down to just Altuve carrying the culture it could fall apart.

The great teams have always been about culture versus the individual pieces. Sure, there are great players on great teams, but the culture shines through in the toughest moments.
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Marvin
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11:22a, 2/13/24
AG
How would you guys rank them with consideration given to payroll and replacement options. I'd say:

1. Framber- he's a TORP when right.
2. Bregman- maybe not as expensive and still a good player.
3. Tucker- maybe the most expensive and it's a position in which we have at least some talent in the pipeline.
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