***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:25p, 1/25/24
AG
IIRC, he had elbow issues on top of his location issues
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Farmer1906
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3:27p, 1/25/24
AG
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linkdude
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3:27p, 1/25/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:52p, 1/25/24
AG
D-bag to D-backs...perfect.
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TarponChaser
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In reply to linkdude • 4:00p, 1/25/24
linkdude said:

Man, Pederson got fat since I last remember seeing him play in the World Series for the Braves vs. the Astros.
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Ag_07
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4:10p, 1/25/24
AG
There are no redeeming qualities in a man who wears a pearl necklace.
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redline248
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4:22p, 1/25/24
AG
Regarding Yordan's splits as a DH vs LF...

There is probably some sample size significance, as he has 800 more PA at DH in his career.

His career OPS as a DH (0.932) would have ranked 8th among all hitters last year, 2 spots lower than were he actually landed in 2023.

His career OPS as LF (1.076) would have ranked him 1st, above Ohtani. That's amazing, but it's probably not reality over a full season.

For comparison, in 2023 his splits were 0.968 DH and 1.028 LF. Not quite as drastic. He's still elite AF in the box, regardless of playing the field or not.

When you add in his defense (-3 OOA) and his injury history, I can live with his production only being top 8
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linkdude
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5:56p, 1/25/24
AG
Didn't realize, but Misael Tamarez is pitching in the LIDOM finals today.
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Marvin
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In reply to linkdude • 6:58p, 1/25/24
AG
Am I the only one who had to look him up?
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tjack16
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In reply to Marvin • 7:01p, 1/25/24
AG
Marvin said:
Am I the only one who had to look him up?


Me too… zero idea who he is
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Marvin • 7:04p, 1/25/24
AG
Marvin said:
Am I the only one who had to look him up?
How do you not remember our bargain bin signing from 2019 who's now listed as our #30 prospect? His 5+ ERA and almost 1.5 WHIP with the Space Cowboys didn't make an impression?
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 7:11p, 1/25/24
AG
Last year we were hearing many great things about him and his live arm.

Sparky was very high on him
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EastCoastAgNc
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8:05p, 1/25/24
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 8:07p, 1/25/24
AG
That's a solid signing. I believe they are now in the tax. Getting Monty would mean second level tax.
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EastCoastAgNc
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9:52p, 1/25/24
AG

Some things never change
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linkdude
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:59p, 1/25/24
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:23a, 1/26/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
That's a solid signing. I believe they are now in the tax. Getting Monty would mean second level tax.
Before this signing, the Rangers CBT payroll was 231.1 M. As long as this deal is 5.9 M or more (reported at 10-12 M, nothing final) then they will be north of the 237 M limit. That means any additional contract north of ~16 M would put them in the next tax bracket.

We face the same issue after the Hader deal. We'll both pay 20% on overages for being in the tax for the first time. If we go 20 M over (257+) will be another 12.5%.

If we were to go sign Soler for 15 M a year or if they get Monty for 25 M a year, here is the impact:

Astros
254 M + 15 M = 269

269 - 237 = 32 M
269 - 257 = 12 M
32 M * 20% + 12 M * 12.5% = 7.9 M in taxes

Rangers
242 (estimated with Robertson) + 25 M = 267 M

267 - 237 = 30 M
267 - 257 = 10 M

30 M * 20% + 10 M * 12.5% = 7.25 M in taxes

7 to 8 M in taxes doesn't seem like a huge number, but this would be in addition to a record payroll as things stand now.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:24a, 1/26/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Farmer1906 said:
That's a solid signing. I believe they are now in the tax. Getting Monty would mean second level tax.
Before this signing, the Rangers CBT payroll was 231.1 M. As long as this deal is 5.9 M or more (reported at 10-12 M, nothing final) then they will be north of the 237 M limit. That means any additional contract north of ~16 M would put them in the next tax bracket.

We face the same issue after the Hader deal. We'll both pay 20% on overages for being in the tax for the first time. If we go 20 M over (257+) will be another 12.5%.

If we were to go sign Soler for 15 M a year or if they get Monty for 25 M a year, here is the impact:

Astros
254 M + 15 M = 269

269 - 237 = 32 M
269 - 257 = 12 M
32 M * 20% + 12 M * 12.5% = 7.9 M in taxes

Rangers
242 (estimated with Robertson) + 25 M = 267 M

267 - 237 = 30 M
267 - 257 = 10 M

30 M * 20% + 10 M * 12.5% = 7.25 M in taxes

7 to 8 M in taxes doesn't seem like a huge number, but this would be in addition to a record payroll as things stand now.
Don't the draft penalties escalate for going over each level? No doubt we'll give Bregman the QO, and no doubt he won't accept it. The compensatory pick would suffer, right?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 8:34a, 1/26/24
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
Farmer1906 said:
Farmer1906 said:
That's a solid signing. I believe they are now in the tax. Getting Monty would mean second level tax.
Before this signing, the Rangers CBT payroll was 231.1 M. As long as this deal is 5.9 M or more (reported at 10-12 M, nothing final) then they will be north of the 237 M limit. That means any additional contract north of ~16 M would put them in the next tax bracket.

We face the same issue after the Hader deal. We'll both pay 20% on overages for being in the tax for the first time. If we go 20 M over (257+) will be another 12.5%.

If we were to go sign Soler for 15 M a year or if they get Monty for 25 M a year, here is the impact:

Astros
254 M + 15 M = 269

269 - 237 = 32 M
269 - 257 = 12 M
32 M * 20% + 12 M * 12.5% = 7.9 M in taxes

Rangers
242 (estimated with Robertson) + 25 M = 267 M

267 - 237 = 30 M
267 - 257 = 10 M

30 M * 20% + 10 M * 12.5% = 7.25 M in taxes

7 to 8 M in taxes doesn't seem like a huge number, but this would be in addition to a record payroll as things stand now.
Don't the draft penalties escalate for going over each level? No doubt we'll give Bregman the QO, and no doubt he won't accept it. The compensatory pick would suffer, right?
Yes, but, I believe, that is true whether we're 1 M over or 50 M over. Our QO draft compensation moves from the 2nd to the 4th.

The other draft penalties are for those more than 40 M over.

10-Spot Drop of 1st RD Pick (2nd RD if Top 6)

Somewhat related but we lose a draft pick for signing Hader too.
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Taxman90
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8:35a, 1/26/24
AG
Correct. 4th round pick compensation instead of 2nd.
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EastCoastAgNc
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9:10a, 1/26/24
AG
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linkdude
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11:08a, 1/26/24
AG
Well, well, well.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to linkdude • 11:28a, 1/26/24
AG
Good for him
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EastCoastAgNc
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11:45a, 1/26/24
AG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_James_(baseball)

Reading through this, Josh and his family have had a rough few years. Last time he was with the Astros was in 2022, and he had to get flexor tendon surgery (based on Lance's timeline, he couldn't have pitched last year). He got non-tendered in November of 2022. In October of 2022, he and his wife had twins, but one passed away at 23 days old. Just awful.

Hopefully he and his family are doing well now and he can find success on the field going forward.
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tylhair
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11:56a, 1/26/24
AG
@texasaggie2015(dude who claims to know things)

Got any move rumors, real or fake? I'll take either.
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Beat40
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In reply to tylhair • 11:58a, 1/26/24
tylhair said:
@texasaggie2015(dude who claims to know things)

Got any move rumors, real or fake? I'll take either.
We're getting Bryce Harper!
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tylhair
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12:06p, 1/26/24
Farmer1906
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In reply to Beat40 • 12:14p, 1/26/24
AG
Beat40 said:
tylhair said:
@texasaggie2015(dude who claims to know things)

Got any move rumors, real or fake? I'll take either.
We're getting Bryce Harper!


I hope he enjoys backing up Abreu.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 12:17p, 1/26/24
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:

Quote:
Neither should be required to reprise the role in his sophomore season. Justin Verlander is slated to pitch a full season for the Houston Astros after his deadline acquisition last August. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jos Urquidy slot ahead of them in the rotation hierarchy. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. should, too, when they return from elbow surgery.
I do not agree with this, Chandler.

But I really like this:


Quote:
Brown is at his best when inducing ground-ball contact early in counts, something that became impossible with those problems locating his fastball. That there is so little velocity variance between his four-seam fastball and cutter/slider hybrid only exacerbated the problem.

To remedy it, pitching coaches Josh Miller and Bill Murphy are working with Brown to develop a new, lower-velocity slider. He will continue to throw the aforementioned hybrid pitch but solely as a cutter. Brown tried to experiment with a sweeper slider during last season but found it difficult to keep a pitch with so much break around the strike zone.

"We're going for something that, really, the biggest thing is the velocity change that we're shooting for," Brown said.

France intimated that he, too, is adding a new pitch to his arsenal, but preferred to keep it "on the low down" before eventually debuting it in spring training next month.

...We're tweaking some stuff right now and just getting ready to go to spring training and hit the ground running."

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Terminus Est
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:35p, 1/26/24
Farmer1906 said:
EastCoastAgNc said:

Quote:
Neither should be required to reprise the role in his sophomore season. Justin Verlander is slated to pitch a full season for the Houston Astros after his deadline acquisition last August. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jos Urquidy slot ahead of them in the rotation hierarchy. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. should, too, when they return from elbow surgery.
I do not agree with this, Chandler.

But I really like this:


Quote:
Brown is at his best when inducing ground-ball contact early in counts, something that became impossible with those problems locating his fastball. That there is so little velocity variance between his four-seam fastball and cutter/slider hybrid only exacerbated the problem.

To remedy it, pitching coaches Josh Miller and Bill Murphy are working with Brown to develop a new, lower-velocity slider. He will continue to throw the aforementioned hybrid pitch but solely as a cutter. Brown tried to experiment with a sweeper slider during last season but found it difficult to keep a pitch with so much break around the strike zone.

"We're going for something that, really, the biggest thing is the velocity change that we're shooting for," Brown said.

France intimated that he, too, is adding a new pitch to his arsenal, but preferred to keep it "on the low down" before eventually debuting it in spring training next month.

...We're tweaking some stuff right now and just getting ready to go to spring training and hit the ground running."

As long as he doesn't start naming his pitches something like "The Eliminator"
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Terminus Est • 12:40p, 1/26/24
AG
Bravo sir.

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Mr.Bond
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 12:41p, 1/26/24
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
Bravo sir.

Makes the women here in Cleveland puke
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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W
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1:07p, 1/26/24
AG
good article on H.B.

a velocity delta between (or among) pitches is important

one reason for Michael Wacha's renewed success...his fastball-change-up delta is around 12 mph
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 1:11p, 1/26/24
AG
Yes, there was an article posted a few weeks back covering that.
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redline248
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:01p, 1/26/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Yes, there was an article posted a few weeks back covering that.
According to statcast Brown's fastball averaged 95.7 and his slider 91.7. Those nerd articles you reference demonstrated that a -4 velocity difference was the worst performing in terms of run value (they didn't go down to -2, that I can find).

However, this is where I'm unclear...they also so that a harder thrown off speed is better than a slower thrown off speed. I have mush brain at this particular moment in the day, so I can't tell if 91 mph slider at -4 is still better than an 88/89 mph slider at around -6 mph. Basically, will it be that beneficial to drop down to, say, 88 on his slider?

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