***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

937,235 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Farmer1906
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Another option long gone.

Prosperdick
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Big Al 1992 said:

Verlander is 43 wins away from 300 sitting at 257. May be the last one with a realistic shot at it for the foreseeable future. If - and huge if - he can stay healthy enough to get one last 17-18 win season it should be doable to scramble a couple of 12-14 win final seasons. Would need at least 15 Ws this year to still be a discussion. Would love to see it in an Astro uniform.
With the 5 and 6 man rotations nowadays along with starters getting pulled early (which greatly hurts their chance at qualifying wins) I can't foresee any pitcher ever getting to 300 wins again.

Of course anything can happen but I'd put money on Justin being the last one IF he's able to get there.

Just checked the leaders and Grienke and Mad Max aren't getting there and Kershaw is going to be 36 when this season starts and still needs 90 more wins which means 15 wins a year for the next 6 years. I guess that's possible but certainy not likely.
AgLA06
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The Porkchop Express said:

I do not think Pena is a good player. I think he did not bother to work on his skill set after 2022 and it showed across the board in 2023.
Sorry. Maybe it was someone else. There's just enough people that post highly analytical stuff that it's difficult to remember who posted what a month or 2 back. And way too many posts to go back through them and try and figure it out.

I'm not saying Farmer's opinion was wrong. I just thought it was funny considering the effort some put in to showing Pina was actually above average at the plate in a perceived highly disappointing year. And then knocking someone who did it for 2.5 decades at a time when there was perceived to be less offense.
The Porkchop Express
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He struck out 6 fewer times in 66 fewer at-bats. That's not better.

Walked more, overall, but 21 of the 43 walks came while batting 6th-8th, which means he was getting walked so that they could get Jake Myers to hit into a double play or Maldonado to strike out

He had a really nice August, but hits June/July OPS was .595/.531,

More to the point, he only had 10 HR and 13 SB, getting caught 9 times. Those are some suck-ass numbers for someone who is 25 and played 150 games.
The Porkchop Express
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No problem, I'm nt a big analytical guy. I've accepted OPS but I still can't get into WAR. when someone posts a stat about spin rate or likelihood of a hit, I just say "huh" and move on.
AgLA06
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The Porkchop Express said:

No problem, I'm nt a big analytical guy. I've accepted OPS but I still can't get into WAR. when someone posts a stat about spin rate or likelihood of a hit, I just say "huh" and move on.
I'm with you to a point. Likey anything else, stat's don't always show the real story even thought that's the exact reason they exist.

A bench player drawing a full count, 2 out walk in a pivotal moment in the playoffs so a homerun can follow to win the game is a lot more meaningful than a grand slam in a loss. Yet, stat's can't determine that.......yet.
3B Paul 97
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Like a value add to wins? Quality at bat (QAB) in close and late games?
AgLA06
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I can only wish all teams would move into this.
AgLA06
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3B Paul 97 said:

Like a value add to wins? Quality at bat (QAB) in close and late games?
Like I don't want another highly complex stat and there's a reason front offices have people managing things instead of Watson.
htxag09
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But how long until prime is $30+ a month??
AgLA06
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I imagine it would be a tiered system, no?

One price for those that pay for Prime.

Another for those only paying for Prime TV.

The goal is to use this as a loss leader to continue to add to the full Prime memberships / sales. So it's possible it might not go up very much or at all for Prime members.

Prime's advantage is it would no longer be just a regional thing. You could watch any of the games. Which should equal more viewership.
RED AG 98
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This is what think happens as well. Something like:

Prime (shipping only)
Prime TV (delayed, VOD only)
Prive TV+ (live TV and VOD)

htxag09
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For sure, and maybe it turns out great for viewers....but recent history has shown that all these things that seem like a good move for viewers just end up ****ing us in different ways....
iamtheglove
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AgLA06 said:

I imagine it would be a tiered system, no?

One price for those that pay for Prime.

Another for those only paying for Prime TV.

The goal is to use this as a loss leader to continue to add to the full Prime memberships / sales. So it's possible it might not go up very much or at all for Prime members.

Prime's advantage is it would no longer be just a regional thing. You could watch any of the games. Which should equal more viewership.


A team's game will still be only available in the teams regional territory. That won't change as it would impact the national rights deals that MLB, NBA and NHL have.
Farmer1906
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The Porkchop Express said:

He struck out 6 fewer times in 66 fewer at-bats. That's not better.

Walked more, overall, but 21 of the 43 walks came while batting 6th-8th, which means he was getting walked so that they could get Jake Myers to hit into a double play or Maldonado to strike out

He had a really nice August, but hits June/July OPS was .595/.531,

More to the point, he only had 10 HR and 13 SB, getting caught 9 times. Those are some suck-ass numbers for someone who is 25 and played 150 games.
His ABs were down because his Walks were up. His K% dropped from 24.2% to 20.3%. That is a significant drop.

Again, walks up from 3.9% to 6.8%. That is a solid jump whether you make excuses for it or not.

Chase - 37.8% to 36%
Whiff% - 29.7% to 28.3%

He clearly, made the improvements to adjust for his biggest issues as a rookie. That is why his wOBA & xwOBA went up even though his power bottomed out. Did it fix everything? Nope. By focusing on his weaknesses he hurt his ability to elevate and do damage to the fastball. His goal for year 3 should be to regain the power without sacrificing the progress he made year 2.

For a guy who puts in a ton of work on his body and defensive acumen, to say he didn't work on his skills seems pretty silly.
cc10106
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After finally getting to watch Pena more up close last year he clearly stood out among the rest especially with how hard he hit the ball. That was early in the season, but I think he bounces back this year.
Farmer1906
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Farmer1906 said:

Another option long gone.




This seems like a really reasonable deal for a young guy that projects to be somewhere between a back in starter or high leverage reliever.



This feels like a deal we make. Why didn't we do this?

This also puts TOR ahead of us in CBT payroll. I wonder if this shuts them down from any further signings.
bearkatag15
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Because of the 4th year I bet
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:

Because of the 4th year I bet


Maybe. But it's about the same as the Montero deal for a lower AAV. Even if he's a back end starter, he becomes a value arm. 8 M a year is more like the rate for a 7th inning guy. TOR gets his age 26-29 seasons. This screams low to medium risk with high upside.
AgLA06
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Farmer1906 said:

bearkatag15 said:

Because of the 4th year I bet


Maybe. But it's about the same as the Montero deal for a lower AAV.

Maybe. Big transition to Cuba to USA and Cuban league to MLB.

This screams low to medium risk with high upside.

It's a lower risk when you don't have as much money tied up in bullpen arms on the sideline as we have. My guess is if they're going to splurge, it's got to be for someone deemed less risky because they can't afford to miss if they spend the money to go over the tax threshold.
Beau Holder
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Farmer1906 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Another option long gone.




This seems like a really reasonable deal for a young guy that projects to be somewhere between a back in starter or high leverage reliever.



This feels like a deal we make. Why didn't we do this?

This also puts TOR ahead of us in CBT payroll. I wonder if this shuts them down from any further signings.

We don't make deals anymore.
tjack16
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I get the 4th year issue but he's also 26. It's not like he's in his 30s like Montero or Jose Abreu.

I'm good with giving a younger guy that type of deal
bearkatag15
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Yeah don't think we go that high
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Mr.Bond
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Holy **** balls
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Ag_07
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Tweet must've been deleted

What did it say?
Mr.Bond
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Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Ag_07
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EastCoastAgNc
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It's easy, AAV of $1M with $1M deferred for each of the next 47 years
JDUB08AG
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Where is the breaking point? These contracts seem to be outpacing the ability of teams to increase spending.
bearkatag15
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less than a month away
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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Mr.Bond said:





I don't believe that for a minute. Makes zero sense.
bearkatag15
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Farmer1906 said:

Mr.Bond said:





I don't believe that for a minute. Makes zero sense.
I mean, he can seek that all he wants... doubt anyone pays him that though
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Mr.Bond said:





I don't believe that for a minute. Makes zero sense.
I mean, he can seek that all he wants... doubt anyone pays him that though


I don't even believe he's asking for that. That would put him at a higher AAV and total money than what Jansen, Pressly, Nick Martinez, Kimbrel, Montero, Hicks, Rogers, Lopez, etc. only Edwin Diaz and likely Josh Hader would top him. He knows he's not going to sniff that at age 35 coming off a great year as the 7th inning guy.
n_touch
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JDUB08AG said:

Where is the breaking point? These contracts seem to be outpacing the ability of teams to increase spending.
Already past it. Now it is just time sit back and watch the craziness until it resets.
bearkatag15
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should be Yordan easily
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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