***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

971,222 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
JYDog90
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

$20 against that


Yeah, I want in on that too.
Formerly Willy Wonka
tjack16
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For Pena, If you pair the 2022 power (slugging) and the 2023 on base percentage/walks, you get a really solid offensive player.

You'd be looking at .263/.324/.426 with 22 HR.

If he improves on any of those numbers then you have an all star. I'm hoping his OBP keeps trending up and we get the power back


Farmer1906
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Farmer1906 said:

Pena is above average offensively for a SS (slightly) and well above avg defensively. #s back that up.
The #s to back it up.

League Avg SS 2023 / Pena
94 wRC+ / 96 wRC+
.311 OBP / .324 OBP
.401 SLG / .381 SLG

League Avg SS 2022 / Pena
96 wRC+ / 102 wRC+
.306 OBP / .289 OBP
.386 SLG / .426 SLG

50 players in 2023 had at least 100 PA as a SS. #25 (in wRC+) is Elvis Andrus - 89 wRC+, .301 wOBA. Pena is #21. Only 43 in 2022 and once again, Pena is #20 (higher than the median). If you combine those years and bump the min to 150 PA, there are 57. Pena is #25. Again, above the median. If you switch to WAR he jumps up to 11th. That is because he plays good defense and runs the bases well.

Pena is a young controllable player who brings value to this team. He's not an All-Star. He's not making any All-MLB teams. And he doesn't have to when you've built the team around him that we have.




Marvin
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Buck Compton said:


Gotta insulate this place from the mob mentality bull**** on the football and premium boards. They're unreadable.



Amen, and amen. Please do not bring that crap over here. I'm really close to dropping Premium after over a decade of membership because it is nothing but insults and arrogant responses. The best part of this thread is not the Astros content but the discussion with you guys... even the ones who argue with brick walls. (haha)

Farmer1906
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Brown is someone who is poised to have a nice bounce-back year. If you look at his expected # numbers vs. actual, he's near the top of the league in unfavorable outcomes.

Min 500 PA against
ERA vs xERA - 6th
wOBA vs xwOBA - 6th
SLG vs xSLG - 8th
BA vs xBA - 4th

If you flip that around guys like Framber & France were more lucky last year. Snell has an argument for luckiest with all those base runners he's allowed. Maybe that explains why his market isn't on fire after such a big year.

EastCoastAgNc
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Astros let him walk this offseason
Farmer1906
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After looking around the expected stats leaderboards, I have decided Dana Brown needs to go get AJ Puk from the Marlins. Huge lefty with nasty stuff. He's about to hit year 1 of arbitration and the Marlins have lefty Tanner Scott (the best closer not everyone knows yet) and lefty Andrew Nardi ahead of him for high leverage.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Marvin said:

Buck Compton said:


Gotta insulate this place from the mob mentality bull**** on the football and premium boards. They're unreadable.



Amen, and amen. Please do not bring that crap over here. I'm really close to dropping Premium after over a decade of membership because it is nothing but insults and arrogant responses. The best part of this thread is not the Astros content but the discussion with you guys... even the ones who argue with brick walls. (haha)


I didn't even know what the U everyone was starting to sport because I mainly stay on here and the outdoors board.

I hate everything cfb is becoming and how I believe it's ruining my Alma mater so I'd never dream of donating to buy players (rant over)

Also sometimes the brick wall deserves it.
3B Paul 97
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EastCoastAgNc said:


Astros let him walk this offseason

Some journalist will use "Record signing for the Rays" to get clicks.
agproducer
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RE: Hunter Brown -- I think he is poised for a bounce back year. Last year was his first full year in the big league, and I think he hit a wall.

Maybe a full year of JV will also help him. He looks up to JV and if he can get a little mentorship, that could also be good for him.

I'm not really worried about Brown. I'm more concerned about Framber returning to form, what we will get from LMJ and how well LuAce recovers.
Farmer1906
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All I do is Nguyen
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100 days until opening day!!!
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Lonestar_Ag09
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Brice Mathews…is he for sure a SS or could he be our answer to third , after Bregman
Farmer1906
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I think he could transition. But Dezenzo is probably more of a 3B and Wagner could play there too. They're ahead of Matthews for now.
tjack16
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I mean Bregman was a SS in college so I don't see why Matthews couldn't also make the transition
3B Paul 97
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A SS has the talent to play 3B, but it is more about the mindset. Balls get on you quick over there.
texasaggie2015
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If Matthews doesn't stick at SS, he'll likely end up in the outfield. He still has a ways to go before sniffing the bigs though.
Farmer1906
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Interesting. Midzee mentioned that too in his writeup from Sept.

Quote:


Defensively, Matthews has all the physical tools to stick at shortstop except for the requisite smooth glovework at present. By range, athleticism, and arm grades alone he should be able to handle the position at the highest level but is still somewhat unpolished in the infield, and inconsistent in securing sharp ground balls. Only 21 and with multiple years of defensive reps ahead of him, Matthews has the physical foundation to transform himself into an asset at the 6. If not, he has reasonable fallback options in moving to CF, where he projects well, or perhaps could take a stumble down the defensive spectrum to settle in as an offensively-inclined 2B.
Maybe he's Altuve's replacement and not Bregman's.
Beat40
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I'm excited for Brown next year. Really hoping for a bit of a turn around year for him.
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

After looking around the expected stats leaderboards, I have decided Dana Brown needs to go get AJ Puk from the Marlins. Huge lefty with nasty stuff. He's about to hit year 1 of arbitration and the Marlins have lefty Tanner Scott (the best closer not everyone knows yet) and lefty Andrew Nardi ahead of him for high leverage.


I've wanted either Puk or Diekman for a while. Lean toward Puk because of age.
The Porkchop Express
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All I do is Nguyen said:

100 days until opening day!!!
I need a new countdown. The jersey one was so fun last year. Maybe a season by season when we get to 62 days
Beat40
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The Porkchop Express said:

All I do is Nguyen said:

100 days until opening day!!!
I need a new countdown. The jersey one was so fun last year. Maybe a season by season when we get to 62 days


Maybe a count down by a stat of an Astros player the same as the number of days?

For example - 100 as either RBI or runs scored for an Astro.
Farmer1906
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In the least shocking news ever, everything team their a great fit to trade for Framber.



And for a fun thought exercise, here are my ass-pull attempts to make a trade for each team.

Giants - they give us their MLB-ready top 20 overall lefty starter, solid (ideal platoon) corner OF in Yaz with 2 more years of control, and their top high-leverage lefty who slightly overpaid so they the chip in 4 M a year on the 12 M salary.



Dodgers - they give us their MLB-ready top 50 INF (Bregman / Altuve replacement), MLB-ready top 5 system SP, plus lefty reliever rental, and their #1 pick from the 23 draft out of Atascocita.



Reds - they give us their MLB-ready top 5 system SP, Corner INF with 6 year of control in Encarnacion-Strand, & a solid lefty reliever with 4 years of control.


Orioles - they give us almost MLB-ready top 30 corner INF (Bregman replacement) & lefty corner OF slugger in Santander.


The Porkchop Express
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Beat40 said:

The Porkchop Express said:

All I do is Nguyen said:

100 days until opening day!!!
I need a new countdown. The jersey one was so fun last year. Maybe a season by season when we get to 62 days


Maybe a count down by a stat of an Astros player the same as the number of days?

For example - 100 as either RBI or runs scored for an Astro.
That's cool, although I'm a little unprepared right now I'll think of something. Having baseball busy work is a fun deal for me.
Farmer1906
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Beat40 said:

The Porkchop Express said:

All I do is Nguyen said:

100 days until opening day!!!
I need a new countdown. The jersey one was so fun last year. Maybe a season by season when we get to 62 days


Maybe a count down by a stat of an Astros player the same as the number of days?

For example - 100 as either RBI or runs scored for an Astro.
Career WAR as an Astros

There are only 2 really high ones in Bagwell & Biggio, but once you get to the low 50s you should have someone most days.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&season1=1871&ind=0&rost=0&players=0&team=21

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&season1=1871&ind=0&rost=0&players=0&team=21
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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MaxPower
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Rather have Sal Stewart from the Reds. At least a decent chance he can be a 3B. If you can find a way to get Marte from them that's ideal.
bearkatag15
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Check out RF
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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Sal just turned 20. He has 137 PA in high A. No way he's ready to replace Breggy any time soon. The evaluator says Framber > Sal & Noelvi but I think it's understating Noelvi. He's the Reds #1 prospect and starting 3rd baseman. He looked good in his debut last year.
BadAggie
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Hate to deal Framber as odds are rather good he'll get it together after an offseason of rest and he has shown he has elite stuff.

Sure if someone wants to overpay you have to consider that.

redline248
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Would be nice
Farmer1906
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We can't trade someone with his own minivan concert venue.


Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

We can't trade someone with his own minivan concert venue.





He's a match for Houston. Latina SLAB.
MaxPower
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bearkatag15 said:



Check out RF
I still believe! That rotation looks highly suspect and I'm not buying most of those new guys in the lineup. Looks like an 80 win team.
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