***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

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Farmer1906
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 1:46p, 12/18/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


Who would hit at DH when Yordan is in LF (which he should be majority of the time)?


If Yordan is in LF then Jake is on the bench. If a RHP is throwing, I go Singleton. If a LHP then I'm probably not playing Yordan in LF because it makes more sense to get Jake and/or Doobie in the field. Both hit lefties well and are clear upgrades to Yordan defensively. My rule of thumb is Yordan plays LF vs RHP only.
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tjack16
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 1:47p, 12/18/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


Who would hit at DH when Yordan is in LF (which he should be majority of the time)?


If we get 2022 Pena, healthy Abreu and Chas/Diaz progress then it's a top 6 lineup in baseball.

My worry is if we pretty much need 3/4 of those to click and can't afford any injuries
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to tjack16 • 1:50p, 12/18/23
AG
tjack16 said:
bearkatag15 said:


Who would hit at DH when Yordan is in LF (which he should be majority of the time)?


If we get 2022 Pena, healthy Abreu and Chas/Diaz progress then it's a top 6 lineup in baseball.

My worry is if we pretty much need 3/4 of those to click and can't afford any injuries


None of those are stretches though. It's entirely possible.
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Farmer1906
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1:52p, 12/18/23
AG
My general thoughts on the offense…

Keep in mind our offense was 5th in wRC+ in 23. That's with injuries, Dusty doing his lineup BS, and Maldy. We were a very close second to the Braves during the 2nd half when Yordan & Altuve were healthy. I'd say should expect a top 4 offense, maybe higher.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 1:52p, 12/18/23
tjack16 said:
AgLA06 said:
tjack16 said:


I'm just genuinely curious as to what has changed since this video
I guess you're going to have to define what changed.

Because he's tripled our payroll since he bought the club. He's provided the resources to go from a bottom 3 payroll team to a top 6 payroll team. And next year is no different.


I wasn't point to his mentality changing I was asking about the money. The consensus in this video from him was we would spend and spend to keep the window open but now the rumors are we are out of money.

That wasn't a shot at crane or the sky is falling I was just asking is it a combo of aging guys making more money, tv deals or just lack of revenue.
Apparently, people think the "willing to spend to keep the window open" comment means he's willing to self-impose additional money via luxury tax.

He has over and over again show he's willing to spend. What I don't understand is why the expectation is for him to spend and spend and spend over the luxury tax, which would penalize his team further.

In short, not much has changed with Crane's willingness to spend. What has changed is fan expectations of what Crane should spend because it's not their money.

The only thing I think you could make an argument with Crane is not as willing to pay out big deals, but even the ones the fans wanted him to shell out big bucks on, Crane has proven to be right on not to spend.
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tjack16
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1:58p, 12/18/23
AG
Where I think we've improved this offseason
1. Cut Maldy and Dusty, upgraded both of those roles with Diaz and Espada
2. Guys should be healthier going into next season.


Where we can still improve this offseason
1. Re-sign Neris, and add another good bullpen arm
2. Add a quality bench bat for depth or potential outfield/first platoon if necessary
3. Re-sign one of Altuve/Bregman/Tucker to an extension. Not only does it keep the window open longer but it would be good to get some excitement going for the fanbase
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Beat40
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:58p, 12/18/23
AgLA06 said:
Ok. That makes sense and was what I thought.

But that dude kept saying losing money (instead of revenue) and I was trying to figure out how it was a greater than $80MM hit. (actually losing money).
Yeah - I didn't read it as they were taking annual loses, just that net income has reduced as a result of the regional channel's failure and having to buy it out.

Crane is a smart businessman. If he actually is willing to sell the team, it may be because he doesn't want to deal with the headache of TV and doing what it takes to return to a similar profitability they had under AT&T with the cable companies.

It's why I think the TV part of the game is quickly become a spot MLB needs to focus on correcting, before it's too big of a whole to get out of, rather than just changing rules in order to grow the game.

You can't grow if you can't find a way to get more eyes on the produt.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 2:03p, 12/18/23
tjack16 said:
Where I think we've improved this offseason
1. Cut Maldy and Dusty, upgraded both of those roles with Diaz and Espada
2. Guys should be healthier going into next season.


Where we can still improve this offseason
1. Re-sign Neris, and add another good bullpen arm. In short, too freaking expensive. I honestly do not want an expensive bullpen. They are too up and down for me to commit a lot of money to them. Find another Neris/Maton another way.
2. Add a quality bench bat for depth or potential outfield/first platoon if necessary. I do agree some bench depth is required. Probably the team's biggest hole right now.
3. Re-sign one of Altuve/Bregman/Tucker to an extension to get some excitement going for the fanbase. If Crane is thinking he needs to sign one of these guys to excite a fanbase whose team has gone to the ALCS 7 straight years in a row, I want him to sell the team right now. If Dana is thinking the same thing, I hope Crane fires him today.
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tjack16
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In reply to Beat40 • 2:11p, 12/18/23
AG
You misinterpreted me saying extend one of them to get excitement going as the only reason to re-sign them. I was saying it not only improves the team, but also brings some excitement to the fanbase
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 2:17p, 12/18/23
tjack16 said:
You misinterpreted me saying extend one of them to get excitement going as the only reason to re-sign them. I was saying it not only improves the team, but also brings some excitement to the fanbase

To be fair, your wording does read you think they should sign one of those guys to excite the fanbase, but I knew that's not what you meant.

I was saying that if that is the reason they are resigning any of those guys, I want Crane to sell the team or Dana to be fired.

I believe they sign guys for making the team better, so I'm not worried about it. Just saying, if they ever sign a guy just to excite the fanbase, I'll know it's past their time, and I'll be concerned if the team will be consistently good for long periods of time under their leadership.
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Farmer1906
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2:28p, 12/18/23
AG
How would the board feel about trading Urquidy for a mid tier reliever with 2-3 years of control?

I am willing to guess he probably the odd man out in the rotation if it's a 5 man. 1-4 are set with the 5th spot for the 1st half between France, Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and Arighetti. Then at the deadline we get back McCullers & Garcia.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:30p, 12/18/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
How would the board feel about trading Urquidy for a mid tier reliever with 2-3 years of control?

I am willing to guess he probably the odd man out in the rotation if it's a 5 man. 1-4 are set with the 5th spot for the 1st half between France, Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and Arighetti. Then at the deadline we get back McCullers & Garcia.


I'd be okay with it but would also see if said team would throw in an infield prospect (mainly 3rd base)

I'm sure there's a team out there that sees Urquidy as a valuable asset given his postseason success and years of control
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MaxPower
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In reply to tjack16 • 2:36p, 12/18/23
tjack16 said:
Farmer1906 said:
How would the board feel about trading Urquidy for a mid tier reliever with 2-3 years of control?

I am willing to guess he probably the odd man out in the rotation if it's a 5 man. 1-4 are set with the 5th spot for the 1st half between France, Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and Arighetti. Then at the deadline we get back McCullers & Garcia.


I'd be okay with it but would also see if said team would throw in an infield prospect (mainly 3rd base)

I'm sure there's a team out there that sees Urquidy as a valuable asset given his postseason success and years of control
Love to find a way to get Sal Stewart from the Reds. He seems like the odd man out in an org loaded with young IF prospects.
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Project Gemini
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2:42p, 12/18/23
AG
2021-2022 form Urquidy is a heck of a 5th guy. The rest all carry more risk. I personally think France has potential to fill that Maton role for us.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:37p, 12/18/23
Farmer1906 said:
How would the board feel about trading Urquidy for a mid tier reliever with 2-3 years of control?

I am willing to guess he probably the odd man out in the rotation if it's a 5 man. 1-4 are set with the 5th spot for the 1st half between France, Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and Arighetti. Then at the deadline we get back McCullers & Garcia.
I'd be willing to do it if he fills that type of weakness, a reliver with 2-3 years control. His '21 and '22 numbers have him as a high 4 in my opinion. Obviously '23 was worse, but he was trying to integrate the sinker a lot of the first part of the year before the arm fatigue. 5.

Why do you think he's the odd man out in a 5-man rotation? Once he dropped trying to work the sinker in, it felt like he was closer to '21 and '22. At the very least, his second half of '23 seemed to be better.

I don't think Bielak should a part of the rotation at all. I'm not sold on Blanco. I'm not sure Arighetti makes it into the rotation out of spring training to be a help in the first half.

To me the 5th spot is between Urquidy and France. France feels like a ticking time bomb to me.

My point: I'm willing to trade Urquidy because I think trading him helps get you guys you need. He's easily the one out of the guys you listed other teams would want. I don't agree he should be the guy left out of a 5 man ration in favor of any of the guys you listed with the exception of a discussion about France. I do agree with you that it's just a 5 position, so getting rid of Urquidy and one of those guys pitching in the 5 spot the first half of the year is not an issue.
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texasaggie2015
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3:37p, 12/18/23
AG
Asked a couple folks about Crane selling the team.

"Would be the first I've heard of it" was pretty much the response from both
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:05p, 12/18/23
AG
Beat40 said:
Farmer1906 said:
How would the board feel about trading Urquidy for a mid tier reliever with 2-3 years of control?

I am willing to guess he probably the odd man out in the rotation if it's a 5 man. 1-4 are set with the 5th spot for the 1st half between France, Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and Arighetti. Then at the deadline we get back McCullers & Garcia.
I'd be willing to do it if he fills that type of weakness, a reliver with 2-3 years control. His '21 and '22 numbers have him as a high 4 in my opinion. Obviously '23 was worse, but he was trying to integrate the sinker a lot of the first part of the year before the arm fatigue. 5.

Why do you think he's the odd man out in a 5-man rotation? Once he dropped trying to work the sinker in, it felt like he was closer to '21 and '22. At the very least, his second half of '23 seemed to be better.

I don't think Bielak should a part of the rotation at all. I'm not sold on Blanco. I'm not sure Arighetti makes it into the rotation out of spring training to be a help in the first half.

To me the 5th spot is between Urquidy and France. France feels like a ticking time bomb to me.

My point: I'm willing to trade Urquidy because I think trading him helps get you guys you need. He's easily the one out of the guys you listed other teams would want. I don't agree he should be the guy left out of a 5 man ration in favor of any of the guys you listed with the exception of a discussion about France. I do agree with you that it's just a 5 position, so getting rid of Urquidy and one of those guys pitching in the 5 spot the first half of the year is not an issue.
Why Urquidy?

1. I think he makes sense trade-wise because he makes the most (of the low-end arms) and has the least control. He's projected to make 3.5 M and is a FA after the 2025 season.

2. I don't think he brings anything to the table that sets him apart from the others.

Look at the stats below. Who stands out? (2022-23)
ARonel Blanco - 22.9% K%, 12.4% BB%, 4.78 ERA, 5.91 FIP, 5.12 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, 99 Stuff+ (overall), 95/104 Stuff+ (top 2 pitches)
BJose Urquidy- 18.7% K%, 6.6% BB%, 4.32 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.48 SIERA, 105 Stuff+, 109/92 (top 2 pitches)
CBrandon Bielak - 18.2% K%, 9.8% BB%, 3.80 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 4.87 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA, 85 Stuff+, 74/91 (top 2 pitches)
DJP France - 17.4% K%, 8.1% BB%, 3.83 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.80 xFIP, 4.96 SIERA, 103 Stuff+, 101/116 Stuff+ (top 2 pitches)

A is the worst, but B, C, & D are all pretty close. Very slight edge to D IMO.

Just FYI, after he came back from injury last year - 5.35 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 5.66 xFIP.

3. Urquidy is injury prone. He's averaging 111.1 IP, 19 starts, & 22 games)per season over the last 3.

My overall point is he's kind of just a guy and we have similar types we can replace him with. He has a 4.1 WAR in his career over 5 seasons. If we can get under the tax & add a cheap controllable arm to the BP, I would do it.
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Project Gemini
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:08p, 12/18/23
AG
But he has a pet pig
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EastCoastAgNc
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4:13p, 12/18/23
AG
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tylhair
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4:15p, 12/18/23
AG
I thought they dropped Eugenio, Teoscar, and Kelenic bc they were too strikeout prone?
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bearkatag15
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4:30p, 12/18/23
AG


no thanks on that one... wow
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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Mr.Bond
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 4:31p, 12/18/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


no thanks on that one... wow




Lmao! Vaya Con Dios
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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tjack16
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 4:31p, 12/18/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


no thanks on that one... wow


That's what I think of when I think of overpaying relievers. Anything more than 3 years and 15M for AAV is a lot.

But doing a 2-3 year deal for a younger relief guy (Jordan Hicks) makes more sense than overpaying for a Montero or Hader deal
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SECcess12
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:53p, 12/18/23
EastCoastAgNc said:
Thought this was one we might go after.

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Farmer1906
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4:55p, 12/18/23
AG
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tjack16
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5:10p, 12/18/23
AG


Shocked there has been virtually no news on Blake Snell. Reigning cy young winner and still young without a team or front runner
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Farmer1906
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In reply to tjack16 • 5:14p, 12/18/23
AG
Latest news said SFG were the favorites.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:15p, 12/18/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Latest news said SFG were the favorites.


I'd rather him go there than Seattle or New York
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Ag_07
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5:25p, 12/18/23
AG
It's still pretty early in the free agency timeline.

I think a lot of folks are used to NBA and NFL free agency that happens before it really starts and over in 2 weeks as opposed to MLB free agency that is a slow burn.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 12:04a, 12/19/23
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Asked a couple folks about Crane selling the team.

"Would be the first I've heard of it" was pretty much the response from both
Exactly. But we have some people on this board melting down about selling the team because that moron bonda said so. And whining we're not spending enough. And comparing the Stros to the Aggies.



The rest of this post is not for 2015, but the rest of you. Buck up.

Gotta insulate this place from the mob mentality bull**** on the football and premium boards. They're unreadable. Just because a few starters transferred out of the football program doesn't mean the world is ending.

Positives for this year:
- more Diaz, no Maldy
- no Dusty
- more Chas
- no stupid WBC bull****, so hopefully less injury
- hopefully some positive non-zero contribution from LMJ
- full season of JV
- more experienced France and Brown, learning to throw more innings
- potential ASB/trade deadline boost from Garcia
- hopefully a healthy Abreu
- renewed hunger after being close and seeing your ****head neighbors win one
- rest of division took a step back

Negatives:
- light on bench bats (just like last year)
- weaker bullpen (as of now)
- little to no salary cap flexibility
- another year older

I'm sure I missed something, what else is there? Or do this… how many teams (either in our division or in the AL) would trade infields with us? Would trade outfields with us? Starting rotations? Bullpens? Many would trade em all straight-up.

IF: Diaz, Bregs, Pena, Altuve, Healthy Abreu is top 3 in the AL no doubt, argument for #1/2, but TBR and TEX both great. Hard to see me taking anyone else's IF. Maybe BAL.
OF: Tucker, Chas, Alvarez is #2 behind the yanks now that it's verdugo/soto/judge.
SP: Deeper in case of injury than most. Definitely top 5, maybe top 3. (SEA, TOR both probably better… who else are you swapping with?)
RP: only big question I have and it's only about depth, not the end of the game. Hell, Arlington just won with a dreadful pen. Also easiest to address at deadline.

But notice how it's never the same team we're behind for the top spot? We are damn good and window is still open in 2024.
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The Porkchop Express
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7:32a, 12/19/23
AG
My biggest worry for '24 is Hunter Brown. From 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA near the end of May to an 11-13 finish with a 5.09 ERA.

My second biggest worry is Pena. Is '23 who he really is? 10 HR .263, 13 SB, but 9 CS? I need Ozzie Smith over there if he can't hit or approach 20 HR or slug .400.
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AustinCountyAg
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 8:01a, 12/19/23
The Porkchop Express said:
My biggest worry for '24 is Hunter Brown. From 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA near the end of May to an 11-13 finish with a 5.09 ERA.

My second biggest worry is Pena. Is '23 who he really is? 10 HR .263, 13 SB, but 9 CS? I need Ozzie Smith over there if he can't hit or approach 20 HR or slug .400.
get ready for everyone to post about how great his defense is and how he's an avg to good hitter in the league. #'s be damned I am giving it the ole Dusty Baker eye test and as it currently sits I think Pena is a below average MLB short stop who got hot at a perfect time in the playoffs two years ago and that is all anyone remembers. Hopefully he figures it out and turns into something special, but personally I think he is what he is. He's never been a great hitter at any level in his life. ever. Hitting isn't something you just "figure out" especially at the MLB level.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AustinCountyAg • 8:38a, 12/19/23
AG
Pena is above average offensively for a SS (slightly) and well above avg defensively. #s back that up.
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cc10106
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8:45a, 12/19/23
Pena will hit a dinger on Opening Day.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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In reply to cc10106 • 8:45a, 12/19/23
AG
$20 against that
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