Farmer1906 said:

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Beat40 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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If you'd give anybody the 10 year deal it's Tucker.

It just makes too much sense but Crane won't do it

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12. You gotta get the AAV as low as possible.

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I think 25M for AAV would be good for both parties. That would be the 12/300 deal.

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25 AAV seems too low for Tucker.

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You could go 10/300 and get the AAV up but it helps the team so much more to do the longer deal.

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I understand. I'm just saying I think 25per or 30per seems to low for Tucker, who's been at the top of the AL these past few years.

Betts has a 12/365, which brings his AAV to around 30.

I guess I think Tucker is closer to 27-30per for 12 years and 32-35 per for 10 years.

Beat40 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Beat40 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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If you'd give anybody the 10 year deal it's Tucker.

It just makes too much sense but Crane won't do it

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12. You gotta get the AAV as low as possible.

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I think 25M for AAV would be good for both parties. That would be the 12/300 deal.

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25 AAV seems too low for Tucker.

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You could go 10/300 and get the AAV up but it helps the team so much more to do the longer deal.

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I understand. I'm just saying I think 25per or 30per seems to low for Tucker, who's been at the top of the AL these past few years.

Betts has a 12/365, which brings his AAV to around 30.

I guess I think Tucker is closer to 27-30per for 12 years and 32-35 per for 10 years.

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13/325 then

I was with yall at 12/300, 25 per....if that isnt good enough for him and he wants to walk and possible never contend for another ring...(insert Tombstone well bye gif)

spadilly said:

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Aaron Boone's still managing in NY.
I'm not worried.

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Eventually talent can outplay bad management.

linkdude said:

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Definitely fishing for engagement, but I'll still hold out hope until the end lol

FWIW, I have heard that Kyle Tucker’s agent has expressed to the club that he would like to stay in Houston long term…I haven’t heard anything else other than that. Nothing about any negotiations. Just simply that Tucker has expressed the desire to stay in Houston. That’s all.

— Bonda (@BenOndaTop) December 7, 2023

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This freaking guy. Yeah... there's no truth to this. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but there's a LONG way to go.

spadilly said:

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Aaron Boone's still managing in NY.
I'm not worried.

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I was surprised to see his name in a Tweet about all of this I genuinely thought the Yankees fired him last season.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Congratulations and thank you for your time in Montgomery!@MorganEnsberg has been promoted to manage AAA with the @durhambulls! #ButterUp 🧈 pic.twitter.com/awlJgOpEpU

— Montgomery Biscuits (@BiscuitBaseball) December 7, 2023

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Always one of the crew growing up I have fond memories of. Seemed like a really good dude.

Mr.Bond said:

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Bregxit said:

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Morgan is a grizzly lookin mofo now!

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What a WILD flash in the pan player he was man.

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He played like 7 or 8 seasons if I remember correctly and his career went downhill after we traded him to the Padres. Pretty sure he was an all-star and silver slugger during our run to get shilacked by the white socks.

Dude knew nothing, but winning and had a championship at like every level of baseball, except the world series.

Of the topic, but I'm pretty sure he was a rising star manager in our organization for while, but apparently moved over the Rays organization. Anyone know why we'd let him go to them for a lateral move when he was supposedly named Best Managerial Prospect in the Carolina League by Baseball America?

AgLA06 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Bregxit said:

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Morgan is a grizzly lookin mofo now!

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What a WILD flash in the pan player he was man.

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He played like 7 or 8 seasons if I remember correctly and his career went downhill after we traded him to the Padres. Pretty sure he was an all-star and silver slugger during our run to get shilacked by the white socks.

Dude knew nothing, but winning and had a championship at like every level of baseball, except the world series.

Of the topic, but I'm pretty sure he was a rising star manager in our organization for while, but apparently moved over the Rays organization. Anyone know why we'd let him go to them for a lateral move when he was supposedly named Best Managerial Prospect in the Carolina League by Baseball America?

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He was a bit up and down in his stint with the Astros, but not overall bad. Had a heck of a 2005.

Not sure on the managerial switch. He left in 2019 to take an AA managerial spot, so maybe he wanted a promotion and the Astros just didn't have the spot or didn't want to.

Beat40 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Bregxit said:

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Morgan is a grizzly lookin mofo now!

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What a WILD flash in the pan player he was man.

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He played like 7 or 8 seasons if I remember correctly and his career went downhill after we traded him to the Padres. Pretty sure he was an all-star and silver slugger during our run to get shilacked by the white socks.

Dude knew nothing, but winning and had a championship at like every level of baseball, except the world series.

Of the topic, but I'm pretty sure he was a rising star manager in our organization for while, but apparently moved over the Rays organization. Anyone know why we'd let him go to them for a lateral move when he was supposedly named Best Managerial Prospect in the Carolina League by Baseball America?

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He was a bit up and down in his stint with the Astros, but not overall bad. Had a heck of a 2005.

Not sure on the managerial switch. He left in 2019 to take an AA managerial spot, so maybe he wanted a promotion and the Astros just didn't have the spot or didn't want to.

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He almost certainly had help in 2005. Of course half the league did. And by half I mean everyone.

The #Yankees have expressed interest in free-agent RHP Jordan Hicks, per @ChrisKirschner and @BrendanKutyNJ pic.twitter.com/wp3c5iUjXL

— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) December 7, 2023

Deluxe said:

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Interesting article on Hicks. I could go either way on him. Depends on how much additional juice we think our nerds can squeeze out of him.

At a high level, if we're going to give out big $$ to a reliever, my inclination is to give it to someone who's nasty and has some margin for error to cover for some inconsistency as opposed to a "coming off career year" guy who has solid stuff but needs to be on to be effective (ie Montero, Will Harris types).

Is Hicks that guy? I'm not sure.

https://baseballcloud.blog/2022/08/29/the-jordan-hicks-dilemma-a-quantitative-analysis-of-pitch-tunneling-arsenal-coherence-and-stuff-based-evaluation/

Quote:

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To exemplify my point about wiffle-ball-esque pitches, I will point to a pitcher whose stuff on paper appears to be fresh out of a video game. Jordan Hicks of the St. Louis Cardinals might possess the single-most nasty two-pitch mix in MLB history. He is known for having touched 105mph on his sinker. That sinker runs 16 inches, and his slider sweeps 12 inches. A 28-inch horizontal movement differential combined with historical velocity must make Hicks unhittable. Right?

Somehow, the results don't seem to agree. This is Hicks' second straight season with an ERA above 5.00. He only strikes out 23% of hitters while walking 16%. Ah! There it is! Hicks must be another example of a flame-thrower with generational stuff who is plagued by an inability to throw strikes. Except… he's not. This season, Hicks has thrown 42% of his pitches in the strike zone. Out of 587 pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings in 2022, Hicks ranks 270th in zone rate. His ability to throw strikes is quite literally average. How does a pitcher with an average zone rate have a walk rate that ranks in the 1st percentile? The answer is simple. Jordan Hicks cannot generate strikes on pitches out of the strike zone.

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I just went back and read more of this article. I found it very interesting. The point he semi-makes is that guys like Hicks are too nasty. His 2 main pitches look so different that it's easier for batters to split on the slider and hunt the 100+ MPH sinker.

The 2 biggest takeaways:

Quote:

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To form an ideal tunnel, fastballs and breaking balls should be separated by 16-26 inches of vertical drop. 20 is the number to strive for.

Ideally, a breaking ball should possess between 6-16 inches of horizontal break differential from its corresponding fastball.

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Let's see how this works for a few guys, starting with JV

2023 Justin Verlander
4 Seam - 12.2" Drop, 8.0" Break
Slider - 32.4" Drop, 4.4" Break

Vertical - 20.2" difference
Horizontal - 3.6" difference

2022 Justin Verlander
4 Seam - 11.4" Drop, 9.5" Break
Slider - 31.0" Drop, 4.0" Break

Vertical - 19.6" difference
Horizontal - 5.5" difference

2019 Justin Verlander
4 Seam - 10.7" Drop, 10.1" Break
Slider - 30.2" Drop, 4.1" Break

Vertical - 19.5" difference
Horizontal - 6.0" difference

Vertical Drop
The 4 seamer seems to have dropped a little more each year as he aged. That kind of tracks with the loss or spyder tack and less spin on the ball. But the slider seems to match it to maintain that ~20" difference. I wonder if that was intentional or just age. More drop usually comes from less velo in a lot of cases.

Horizontal Break
This is where 2023 JV looks different from Cy Young JV in 19 and 22. Both CY seasons it was close to the 6" (bottom of the range) needed to fit the criteria. Could this be a key factor in when 4 Seamer didn't play as well?It didn't look different enough vertically from the slider?


Someone who went from elite to below avg - Dylan Cease

2023 Dylan Cease
4 Seam - 11.1" Drop, 3.2" Break
Slider - 34.7" Drop, 2.5" Break

Vertical - 23.6" difference
Horizontal - 0.7" difference

2022 Dylan Cease
4 Seam - 10.3" Drop, 3.0" Break
Slider - 35.0" Drop, 4.0" Break

Vertical - 24.7" difference
Horizontal - 1.0" difference

In both seasons the Horizontal Break doesn't exactly fit. I would say the drop-in play doesn't link to this at all.

I am going to play with this on a bigger scale. Looks like the writer of that article joined the Phillies R&D temporarily and is now at some D3 school as an assistant coach.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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They're gonna completely blow it out for one year, and it's gonna be hilarious to watch them fall on their faces yet again

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If they pull off the hicks move, I'd say they're positioning themselves for a really good 2024 season. Given they're healthy and their young guys progress a bit

AggieJ2002 said:

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Always loved Morgan Ensberg, and every time I hear about him I think about his crazy story of being robbed at gunpoint and getting tied up with 5 other minor leaguers.

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I did about 15 minutes of googling his career since he retired as a player and it gets a little crazier. He had to deal with the family of one of his players being murdered (wife, son, MIL) in 2022. It sounded like he got promoted last year to be the manager of the AAA Durham Bulls (TB), but I didn't see anything other than the announcement. Now it appears he's coaching in something called the AFL after working his way all the way up through the minors as a manager.

"With the Arizona Fall League, managers, coaches, scouts and league officials can be under direct guidance of league and club personnel in league-affiliated ballparks and premier training facilities. The AFL is designed to serve as the 'finishing school' of the minor leagues for players, coaches, umpires and aspiring employees."

Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein is in talks to acquire Major League Baseball’s Baltimore Orioles, according to people with knowledge of the matter https://t.co/3CIuT849mX

— Bloomberg Pursuits (@luxury) December 7, 2023

Orioles being sold?

Juan Soto had 35 home runs in 2023, so the short porch in the Bronx should add plenty more, right? Statcast says: maybe not --> https://t.co/wh1DqxqAaK pic.twitter.com/NBNDIoz8tc

— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) December 7, 2023

The Yankees have interest in Jordan Hicks, per source, though they are not focused on the bullpen market at this time. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the priority, but if they don’t sign him, the Yanks could pivot & load up the bullpen to shorten games, w/Hicks near the top of their list.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 7, 2023

So basically he hits the ball so far the short porch doesn't really make that big a difference.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Juan Soto had 35 home runs in 2023, so the short porch in the Bronx should add plenty more, right? Statcast says: maybe not --> https://t.co/wh1DqxqAaK pic.twitter.com/NBNDIoz8tc

— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) December 7, 2023

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I think the short porch thoguht is overrated... how many right handed guys have we signed thinking MMP short left would be beneficial and turns out hasnt been?

Ag_07 said:

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So basically he hits the ball so far the short porch doesn't really make that big a difference.

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That jet stream in the power alley is a real thing.

Bet Yankees offer Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9-$243M

$27M Per Yr

Requires Additional $38.325M Posting Fee

Under Contract through 2032 / his Age 33 Season

If money is equal (or close), Yamamoto will pick Yankees over Mets / Red Sox / Giants

Does Steve Cohen do something absurd?

— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) December 7, 2023

If you add Soto & Yamamoto plus get healthy, then the Yankees become a potential problem.

Ag_07 said:

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So basically he hits the ball so far the short porch doesn't really make that big a difference.

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Am I correct that the video only shows his 2023 HRs? The text suggests it, but the video maybe includes other deep flys to right? I can't tell if it included all his fly outs to right field