linkdude said:

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Real news

The Astros are hiring former Arizona Diamondbacks and Kansas City Royals scouting director Deric Ladnier as their new senior director of amateur scouting, source tells @TheAthletic. Ladnier oversaw drafts that produced Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 29, 2023

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This is another step away from what Luhnow built. I like Dana, but between him and most of his hires, it is scouting focused. We keep losing our nerds and bringing in "baseball guys". I really hope they have some magic in them because I think the direction we're moving is less likely to keep the window open the longest.

Last post of the morning. We can all have a good laugh.

According to MLB radio, Bellinger is looking for a contract around 12 years, $252M, just figured I’d share

— Cease2SD (@SotoPlsResign) November 29, 2023

That's gonna buy a lot of marijuana

Farmer1906 said:

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Last post of the morning. We can all have a good laugh.

According to MLB radio, Bellinger is looking for a contract around 12 years, $252M, just figured I’d share

— Cease2SD (@SotoPlsResign) November 29, 2023

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Farmer1906 said:

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iBrad said:

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If we just lose Bregman? No. If we trade for Luis Robert in addition to trading Bregman, I think we could see the end result be an overall upgrade to the big league roster both this season and beyond.

We know that the key to winning titles is keeping the window open and making the postseason as often as possible, so you can't get too caught up on 2024 alone.

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If Bregman nets you prospect the land Lubob, then I can get on board. Especially, if it saves Brown or McCormick from being in the package.

But we have a real window that will be closing on certain guys. Verlander is about to age out. Altuve isn't going to keep up his superstar pace hitting his mid-30s. Tucker & Valdez have 2 years left as an Astro. Pressly has 1 to 2 more years. We really need to get a title in '24 or '25. After that, we might need to go thru some type of rebuild. Or at least a very new-look team.

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You, me and most of us have been operating for a while under the "window runs through 2025" assumption. And with good reasons (mainly the ones you laid out). But just for offseason fun, I've been thinking about it from a slightly different perspective over the last week or two.

What if we push up our "rebuild" year to 2024 and make moves now to set ourselves up for a 2025-2027 run. I would hesitate to even call 2024 a "rebuild" year in this scenario because it could end up looking like 2020.

But while there's plenty of reasons to try and maximize our 2024-25 run and figure out the rest later, there's one big reason to make sure we're maximizing our chances through 2027: we have the best hitter in baseball locked in on a team friendly deal.

What would that look like? Very debatable. But a few ideas that could be consistent with this philosophy.

1) Do what it takes to land LuBob. That locks in Yordan/LuBob hitting 3-4 in the order through 2027 at an extreme value price.

2) Get what you can via trade for Bregman, Tucker, and Framber. It doesn't sound like there's much chance of them sticking around for Yordan's window. I'd be open to dealing JV and Pressly in this scenario too if a team is willing to give us a nice return. Basically, re-stock the cupboard with high-end MLB ready, controllable players across the board.

3) Sign a big-name free agent bat to replace Bregman or Tucker (either this offseason or next). Someone more willing to play on a 4-5 year deal. Keep the middle of the order solidified with this player + Yordan + LuBob.

4) Use the first half of 2024 as "pitcher tryouts" year like we did in 2020. Let guys like Blanco, Arrighetti, France + whoever we get in the aforementioned trades carry the load early in the year and see what they've got. Give Javier a little rest. Retain flexibility to let LMJ/Garcia take their time in returning from their injury. By the end of the year, we should have a good idea of what how much pitching we need to bring in next offseason. As unappealing as this sounds, I think we're going to have to do this in 2024 or 2026 either way.

5) Altuve doesn't mesh great with this plan but he's an Astro for life. Keep tacking on deals for him. Given his commitment to fitness, I wouldn't be shocked to see him continue to be productive into his mid 30s anyway.

I doubt we'll go this route. Just toying with the idea for offseason fun. Been super busy lately with a new job but hope everyone is doing well.

I agree. If we add it needs to be a top end arm, not another innings eater unless we're trading away guys like Brown, France, Urquidy. Then we could just use another body. But that's a different conversation.

Here is how I see it.
1. Ride with who we have.
2. Go get a top end arm, trade away a few bodies. (Very unlikely IMO)
3. Trade away young arms, go get inning eater to backfill. (This is the LuBob scenario)

Farmer1906 said:

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Last post of the morning. We can all have a good laugh.

According to MLB radio, Bellinger is looking for a contract around 12 years, $252M, just figured I’d share

— Cease2SD (@SotoPlsResign) November 29, 2023

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When there is a 4 paragraph section on your wikipedia page labeled Injuries and Regression, you don't get to ask for 12 years lol

Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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iBrad said:

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If we just lose Bregman? No. If we trade for Luis Robert in addition to trading Bregman, I think we could see the end result be an overall upgrade to the big league roster both this season and beyond.

We know that the key to winning titles is keeping the window open and making the postseason as often as possible, so you can't get too caught up on 2024 alone.

---

If Bregman nets you prospect the land Lubob, then I can get on board. Especially, if it saves Brown or McCormick from being in the package.

But we have a real window that will be closing on certain guys. Verlander is about to age out. Altuve isn't going to keep up his superstar pace hitting his mid-30s. Tucker & Valdez have 2 years left as an Astro. Pressly has 1 to 2 more years. We really need to get a title in '24 or '25. After that, we might need to go thru some type of rebuild. Or at least a very new-look team.

---

You, me and most of us have been operating for a while under the "window runs through 2025" assumption. And with good reasons (mainly the ones you laid out). But just for offseason fun, I've been thinking about it from a slightly different perspective over the last week or two.

What if we push up our "rebuild" year to 2024 and make moves now to set ourselves up for a 2025-2027 run. I would hesitate to even call 2024 a "rebuild" year in this scenario because it could end up looking like 2020.

But while there's plenty of reasons to try and maximize our 2024-25 run and figure out the rest later, there's one big reason to make sure we're maximizing our chances through 2027: we have the best hitter in baseball locked in on a team friendly deal.

What would that look like? Very debatable. But a few ideas that could be consistent with this philosophy.

1) Do what it takes to land LuBob. That locks in Yordan/LuBob hitting 3-4 in the order through 2027 at an extreme value price.

2) Get what you can via trade for Bregman, Tucker, and Framber. It doesn't sound like there's much chance of them sticking around for Yordan's window. I'd be open to dealing JV and Pressly in this scenario too if a team is willing to give us a nice return. Basically, re-stock the cupboard with high-end MLB ready, controllable players across the board.

3) Sign a big-name free agent bat to replace Bregman or Tucker (either this offseason or next). Someone more willing to play on a 4-5 year deal. Keep the middle of the order solidified with this player + Yordan + LuBob.

4) Use the first half of 2024 as "pitcher tryouts" year like we did in 2020. Let guys like Blanco, Arrighetti, France + whoever we get in the aforementioned trades carry the load early in the year and see what they've got. Give Javier a little rest. Retain flexibility to let LMJ/Garcia take their time in returning from their injury. By the end of the year, we should have a good idea of what how much pitching we need to bring in next offseason. As unappealing as this sounds, I think we're going to have to do this in 2024 or 2026 either way.

5) Altuve doesn't mesh great with this plan but he's an Astro for life. Keep tacking on deals for him. Given his commitment to fitness, I wouldn't be shocked to see him continue to be productive into his mid 30s anyway.

I doubt we'll go this route. Just toying with the idea for offseason fun. Been super busy lately with a new job but hope everyone is doing well.

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Congrats on the new job!

I like the idea. My hope is that the Astros do not attempt to straddle the fence. Either go all in for the third title or go all in for down the road. Don't pull a Mariners and shoot for some average winning percentage with low deviation.

Of course, there are no guarantees either way. Ask the Braves/Dodgers/Astros/etc. Or the Tigers/White Sox/etc.

texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm also confident enough to throw Randy Arozorena and Bo Bichette out there as other names we've asked about. I can't speak to how in-depth these discussions have been, but we've had conversations with Tampa and Toronto about those guys.

We've also asked about a ton of pitchers across the league. If you think of a name that makes sense, we've very likely asked about them.

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Big news regarding the outfielder market: The Rays are shopping OF Randy Arozarena, and there’s a good chance that he is moved, sources tell @MLBNerds.

— Jack Azoulay-Haron (@AzoulayHaron) November 29, 2023

tjack16 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm also confident enough to throw Randy Arozorena and Bo Bichette out there as other names we've asked about. I can't speak to how in-depth these discussions have been, but we've had conversations with Tampa and Toronto about those guys.

We've also asked about a ton of pitchers across the league. If you think of a name that makes sense, we've very likely asked about them.

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Big news regarding the outfielder market: The Rays are shopping OF Randy Arozarena, and there’s a good chance that he is moved, sources tell @MLBNerds.

— Jack Azoulay-Haron (@AzoulayHaron) November 29, 2023

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Any chance we can get a Time Machine and bring 2020 postseason Arozorena

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He just needs a personal chef making nothing but chicken and rice 24/7.

Mathguy64 said:

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tjack16 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm also confident enough to throw Randy Arozorena and Bo Bichette out there as other names we've asked about. I can't speak to how in-depth these discussions have been, but we've had conversations with Tampa and Toronto about those guys.

We've also asked about a ton of pitchers across the league. If you think of a name that makes sense, we've very likely asked about them.

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Big news regarding the outfielder market: The Rays are shopping OF Randy Arozarena, and there’s a good chance that he is moved, sources tell @MLBNerds.

— Jack Azoulay-Haron (@AzoulayHaron) November 29, 2023

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Any chance we can get a Time Machine and bring 2020 postseason Arozorena

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He just needs a personal chef making nothing but chicken and rice 24/7.

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Before we trade for him, we should demand a steroid test

This supposed insider might know a thing or two

Farmer1906 said:

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Last post of the morning. We can all have a good laugh.

According to MLB radio, Bellinger is looking for a contract around 12 years, $252M, just figured I’d share

— Cease2SD (@SotoPlsResign) November 29, 2023

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I wish we had a prospect we wanted to extend.

Farmer1906 said:

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I wish we had a prospect we wanted to extend.

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Well we keep dragging Whitley along, that's the same thing right?