***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

991,230 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
texasaggie2015
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tjack16 said:

McCullers as a 2024 bullpen option sounds better each day. Our pen is going to be rough this year if our starters don't stay healthy and they get taxed like last year
Garcia will most likely come out of the bullpen.
Farmer1906
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Recap on where we stand payroll wise.

Projected Payroll
1. NYM - 305
2. NYY - 294
3. LAD - 289
4. PHI - 238
5. ATL - 229
6. HOU - 221
7. TOR - 221
8. TEX - 211
9. CHC - 191
10. STL - 178
...
14. LAA - 154
...
18. SEA - 130
...
30. OAK - 41


Luxury Tax Payroll
1. NYM - 318
2. NYY - 305
3. LAD - 301
--60% Surcharge 297
--42.5% Surcharge 277 (45% for each consecutive year)
4. ATL - 271
--12% Surcharge 257
5. PHI - 253
--Competitive Balance Tax 237 (20% year 1, 30% year 2, 50% year 3)
6. HOU - 236
7. TEX - 232
8. TOR - 231
9. SDP - 212
10. SFG - 208
...
15. LAA - 169
...
18. SEA - 150
...
30. OAK - 30


Astros Breakdown
80.3% Guaranteed% (9th)
15.2% Arbitration% (17th)
4.5% Pre-Arb (23rd)

65 M - 2025 Commitments (17th)
  • I estimate 55 M in Arb & 10 M in Pre Arb - 130 M before you get into potential Verlander & Pressly options.
  • That would mean 111 M to play with if we want to go up to the CBT.

66 M - 2026 Commitments (15th)
  • I estimate <40 M in Arb & 10 M in Pre Arb
  • That would mean 129 M to play with if we want to go up to the CBT

48 M - 2017 Commitments (14th)
  • This is only Alvarez & Javier.
  • Pena, Meyers, Brown, & Diaz will still be in Arb.


My thoughts on the Astros:
  • We're going to pay someone, right? Even if JV vests, Pressly & the Astros agree on the mutual option (rare), and we extend Atluve at 25 M, we'd be 54 M under the CBT for 2025.
  • 54 M = 35 to Tucker, 10 M to a star reliever, & 9 M to spare. (just using this as an example of the kind of space we'll have next year)
  • I hope Crane bites the bullet this year and makes the medium-sized signings (Yariel? Moore? Stephenson?) to give us the best shot this year.
  • The downside to that is the qualifying offer compensation draft pick drafts a few spots (after the 4th round) when Bregman leaves.
  • As long as we get under in 2025, the compensation for Framber & Tucker will be higher.

My thoughts on the rest of FA:
  • Who has room to add 20+ M players? I don't think anyone who is currently over the CBT will want to take on a Belli, Snell, Monty, Hader, or Chapman. That leaves TOR (it'll push them into the tax), TEX (into the tax + doubt they do much with the RSN issues), SFG, & CHC. Everyone else wants to stay or cut payroll.
  • Who the hell is going to get all these FAs? I wonder if the bottom falls out and we get another Corra situation where he takes on a short-term deal.
  • No insider info, but I keep thinking about getting Chapman on the cheap. Fangraphs valued his last 3 seasons at 32.6 M, 33.6 M, & 27.6 M. The defense is that good and the offense has another level potentially.
tjack16
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texasaggie2015 said:

tjack16 said:

McCullers as a 2024 bullpen option sounds better each day. Our pen is going to be rough this year if our starters don't stay healthy and they get taxed like last year
Garcia will most likely come out of the bullpen.


That works for me too. I just think with Lance's injury issues getting him an inning or 2 at a time would be best. Plus his stuff plays well for the pen
The Porkchop Express
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EastCoastAgNc said:


I was right where Max Stassi was 12 years ago when our twins were born 4-1/2 months early weighing 1 lb 8 oz and 1 lb 4 oz. They spent 126 and 141 days in the NICU before coming home. Work was just a means to an end for those months, and I spent every other waking moment at the hospital. Good on you, Max for prioritizing the big picture.
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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12 televised games in spring training
Farmer1906
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33 days!
AggiEE
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Bregxit said:

Montero was bad for half of 23. From July 1 through the end of the season he threw 34 innings with a 2.91 ERA. That's not "no production at all".

Feel like some of this was pure luck.

He felt shaky in many of those games, despite the good outcome. Never felt comfortable with him on the mound.
iBrad
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Bregxit said:

Montero was bad for half of 23. From July 1 through the end of the season he threw 34 innings with a 2.91 ERA. That's not "no production at all".

The "no production at all" was in reference to Lance. Being better off with no production was in reference to Montero, who has a negative WAR for the season. We paid him a lot of money and you can argue we would have been better without him.
ChipFTAC01
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Crazy story about Roy O I'd never heard. As told by Berkman

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0H-cKhuFHf/?igsh=MzFvaDl5ZnRub3Zo
Pahdz
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Oh yeah that story I thought was pretty well known.

That one and the one about Billy Wagner teaching himself to throw left handed at a young age when he broke his right arm are pretty amazing.
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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Heard Morosi mention Kyle Finnegan the other day. He'd be a nice Stanek/Neris replacement. Makes just over 5 M. Closes for the Nats but not really a closer. Throws hard and relies heavily on the splitter. Has another year of control.
EastCoastAgNc
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What would it take to get him?
Farmer1906
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I'd guess a prospect in the 7-12 range.
Lonestar_Ag09
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How about a Montero and his contract…?
Farmer1906
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We would probably need to throw in 2-3 prospects then.
PoppaB05
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Call me crazy, but I think throwing resources at trying to have an elite bullpen usually turns out poorly. Relief pitchers, outside the absolute elite top 10-15 arms are unpredictable from year to year. Luckily we have 2 elite guys. I think we have enough options that someone will step up. If not, go get someone at the deadline.
EastCoastAgNc
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PoppaB05 said:

Call me crazy, but I think throwing resources at trying to have an elite bullpen usually turns out poorly. Relief pitchers, outside the absolute elite top 10-15 arms are unpredictable from year to year. Luckily we have 2 elite guys. I think we have enough options that someone will step up. If not, go get someone at the deadline.

The question always comes back to what we are going to trade that has value and will beat offers from other teams?
tjack16
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Who would have thought they most fun playoff game I'd attend in 2023 would have been the Texans
EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16 said:

Who would have thought they most fun playoff game I'd attend in 2023 would have been the Texans
Sequester whatever clothing you wore and use it for Astros games this year
Sea Speed
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tjack16 said:

Who would have thought they most fun playoff game I'd attend in 2023 would have been the Texans


Check your calendar buddy.
tjack16
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Sea Speed said:

tjack16 said:

Who would have thought they most fun playoff game I'd attend in 2023 would have been the Texans


Check your calendar buddy.


2023 season I should say*
Baseball Is Life
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I was mowing the yard before the great freeze hits tomorrow. My earphones broke, so it was just mowing, drinking and peaceful thinking.

You know what pisses me off? Multiple times per season, the sign stealing stuff still gets brought up during games, articles, etc. You never hear anything about the Yankees, BoSox, etc. but.. What makes it worse, is that you never really heard anything during the Michigan game. The Patriots don't continuously get talked about for spygate and inflategate. PedoU doesn't get mentioned, anymore. I could go on and on. A lot of this stuff was far more egregious, and with Michigan, much more recent.

I love sports, but there is/always will be cheating and scandals. It's just sad that we're the only one that gets brought up year after year.

/end rant
Ag4life80
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The cheating scandal is what the liberal elite media uses to show their moral authority.
Baseball Is Life
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Ag4life80 said:

The cheating scandal is what the liberal elite media uses to show their moral authority.

But why? Houston is a liberal (I hate libs, but that is irrelevant to this post) hotbed. Why doesn't the media show their moral authority to these other teams? Is it solely based on the Astros' destroying their East Coast darlings? Houston is a massive city and not some podunk, small market team. Outside of being against a team that has dominated the Yankees or just being against Texans in general -- I don't understand it.
Farmer1906
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EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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King Tuck has a Queen.



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PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Hey not everyone gets prego that quick. Cough Brennan cough
Mathguy64
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Is that Myles on his left?
Faustus
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EastCoastAgNc said:

Farmer1906 said:

But taking on basically anyone at the deadline puts us over.

Yeah but that's been the pattern of what Crane is willing to do. Start cheap, go over later if it's worth it. It just puts an extra drain on the farm system to go that way.


The Astros have exceeded the CBT once in their history (and 12 years under Crane's ownership), and it was in 2020 when the luxury tax was suspended.

Crane pretty much treats it like a salary cap. It certainly could be a lot worse. At least he spends up to the cap even if he's not in the same league as the well to do teams/owners.

https://theathletic.com/5132744/2023/12/13/astros-luxury-tax-offseason-free-agents/?amp=1

https://orangefire.substack.com/p/how-much-luxury-tax-will-jim-crane

Beat40
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Mathguy64 said:

Is that Myles on his left?


Yup.
Project Gemini
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Where's Dusty? Everyone loves Dusty.
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