If we win the next two and Seattle wins the next two against the Astros, then we clinch the division.

This is the way

We would have a 4 game lead with 4 to play and we have the tiebreaker.

One other "magic number" to keep in mind...clinching the first round bye IF we hold on to the division.

TEX 88-68 .564 6 Games Remaining (2 @ LAA, 4 @ SEA)
MIN 83-73 .532 6 Games Remaining (3 vs OAK, 3 @COL)

Since the Twins have the tiebreaker over us, our magic number to avoid the Wild Card round is 2

May be tuff sledding tonight. Detmers has had our number this season for whatever reason. We also are giving Bradford the start, who has had a pretty rough few weeks.

If the division is clinched by Sunday, does management give Heaney a shot at 150?

Detective Jake Peralta said:

---

One other "magic number" to keep in mind...clinching the first round bye IF we hold on to the division.

TEX 88-68 .564 6 Games Remaining (2 @ LAA, 4 @ SEA)
MIN 83-73 .532 6 Games Remaining (3 vs OAK, 3 @COL)

Since the Twins have the tiebreaker over us, our magic number to avoid the Wild Card round is 3

---

If we lose 5 out of the next 6 games we're not winning the division.

I think there's maybe one slight scenario where it couldn't happen, but if we lost 5 out of the next 6 either the Mariners have overtaken us, or the Astros have tied/surpassed us and they have the tiebreaker.

Detective Jake Peralta said:

---

One other "magic number" to keep in mind...clinching the first round bye IF we hold on to the division.

TEX 88-68 .564 6 Games Remaining (2 @ LAA, 4 @ SEA)
MIN 83-73 .532 6 Games Remaining (3 vs OAK, 3 @COL)

Since the Twins have the tiebreaker over us, our magic number to avoid the Wild Card round is 3

---

I'm confused, how is the magic number there not 2? We have a 5 game lead on them currently with 6 to play. If we win two games, that would put us at 90 wins which means Minnesota has no chance of catching us their highest win total achievable is 89.

Proposition Joe said:

---

Detective Jake Peralta said:

---

One other "magic number" to keep in mind...clinching the first round bye IF we hold on to the division.

TEX 88-68 .564 6 Games Remaining (2 @ LAA, 4 @ SEA)
MIN 83-73 .532 6 Games Remaining (3 vs OAK, 3 @COL)

Since the Twins have the tiebreaker over us, our magic number to avoid the Wild Card round is 3

---

If we lose 5 out of the next 7 games we're not winning the division.

---

I see what you're saying, but it all depends on if the Mariners can beat Houston over the next two. If that happens, we can clinch the division with just two wins no matter who they come against.

You're right, not a math major

Detective Jake Peralta said:

---

You're right, not a math major

---

I did not include the MIN Magic Number because it would be an epic collapse and SEA or HOU would win the Division and the 2 seed. In other words, due tot he way that the teams play each other, I don't think it is possible for MIN to win the 2-seed.

I agree it would be wild for it to come into play but...

If we split in LA and are sitting at 89.
HOU/SEA split and are sitting at 87/85 respectively
SEA sweeps us to get to 89
HOU gets swept or only gets 1/3 @ ARI to sit at 87/88
MIN wins out against a soft schedule to get to 89

Then all of a sudden we're the 3 seed in the WC round playing Seattle again in Arlington.


Likely? Of course not.
Possible, especially with the talk of throwing the Seattle series earlier in the thread? I guess.

caleblyn said:

---

I did not include the MIN Magic Number because it would be an epic collapse and SEA or HOU would win the Division and the 2 seed. In other words, due tot he way that the teams play each other, I don't think it is possible for MIN to win the 2-seed.

---

Yeah I think it's very very unlikely, let me work it out.

If Minnesota wins out that would put them at 89 wins.
For them to get the two seed we can only win one more.
Min has the tiebreaker over Houston so that means Houston can only get to 89 wins.
Sea has the tiebreaker over Min so that means they can only get 88.

Seattle can only top out at 90, so that means they need to go 4-2
Rangers have to go 1-5
Astros have to go 3-3.

So if the Astros and Mariners split, and then the Mariners take 3 of 4 against us and Houston doesn't sweep AZ, and then we lose both games to the Angels then Minnesota would finish in the two seed.

The only other scenario where Minnesota can finish ahead of every AL West team is if we lose out, Houston sweeps the Seattle and then loses the series to AZ. In this scenario Minnesota can afford one loss as well.

Here is my breakdown of possible outcomes only relating to the Rangers:

6-0: Division Secured after the 4th game (possibly sooner depending on Houston results)
5-1: Division Secured after the 5th game (possibly sooner depending on Houston results)
4-2: Division Secured after the 6th game (possible sooner depending on Houston results)
3-3: Division Secured if Houston goes 4-1 or worse
2-4: Wildcard Secured via Tiebreaker with Seattle, Division secured if Houston goes 3-2
1-5: Wildcard Secured via Tiebreaker with Seattle if Seattle goes 5-1, division possible if HOU goes 2-3
0-6: Wildcard Secured via Tiebreaker with Seattle if Seattle gets swept by Houston. Division impossible.

Made some slight changes cause I still had it in my mind that Houston had 6 games left and not 5.

Sweeping Seattle was great for our division champion goals. It was very bad for avoiding Houston in the ALDS. We're going to have to play those schmucks again, aren't we.

We need Seattle to take these next two, then hope Arizona finishes them off.

Just win baby

So speaking of Heaney,

He has a PLAYER option for next year of $13 MM guarantied - which escalates to $20 MM if he hits 150 IP.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/andrew-heaney-15790/

Point is - if he does NOT hit 150 IP, he can decline the #13 MM and shop himself. Would he?

Well, this year, $13 MM guys are Max Fried, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana. Can Heaney get better? With this years numbers, I doubt it. So he's back next year no matter what.

He needs 8 innings. Talk about a dude willing to go on short rest.

Do playoff innings count towards that number or just regular season?

Legal Custodian said:

---

Do playoff innings count towards that number or just regular season?

---

The $7 MM question. Cannot find details.

Easiest breakdown I've seen

Good morning!

The FIRST PLACE TEXAS RANGERS lead the AL West by 2.5 games.

MAGIC NUMBER UPDATE

To clinch a playoff spot: 3
To clinch the AL West: 4 pic.twitter.com/9IJY2mXDPh

— Jared Sandler (@JaredSandler) September 26, 2023

Except he's incorrect because the magic number to clinch a playoff spot is only 2. He's correct on 4 games needed to clinch the division however.

Legal Custodian said:

---

Except he's incorrect because the magic number to clinch a playoff spot is only 2. He's correct on 4 games needed to clinch the division however.

---

Yeah, we can go "dormie" with a win tonight and a loss by Seattle.

Baseball Prospectus generally has the best info on contracts. Interestingly, Heaney has already earned some bonuses for this year.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/player/99874/andrew-heaney/

Quote:

---

2 years/$25M (2023-24), including player option.
Signed by Texas as a free agent 12/7/22. 23:$12M, 24:$13M player option ($500,000 buyout).

2024 player option increases to $20M if Heaney: 1) pitches 150 innings in 2023, and 2) does not have an injury that would prevent him from being on the active roster within 60 days of Opening Day 2024.

2023 performance bonuses: $750,000 for 100 innings pitched. $1.25M for 120 IP. $1.5M each for 140, 160 IP.

2024 performance bonuses at 2023 values and thresholds if Heaney exercises his 2024 player option at $13M.

Heaney to donate $50,000 annually to club charity.

---

So golly - I think he post seson is included. One would think if post season was excluded, the wording would be more precise.

Oh, only if sports writers would ask such pertinent questions.

rocky_ag said:

---

Nope. Magic number is three because a three-way tie is still possible for the division and we would be the odd man out on that three way tie.

---

Oh damn! I've been so confident about 2 being the magic number that I didn't even think about a 3 way tie for the division. That is my bad and I can't believe I didn't think about that.

rocky_ag said:

---

Nope. Magic number is three because a three-way tie is still possible for the division and we would be the odd man out on that three way tie.

---

Wait, that's not right. If we win two, that means Seattle would have to win out to tie us. Which would mean Houston gets two losses and even if they sweep the Diamondbacks their win total is maxed at 89 while we're sitting at 90. So a 3 way tie isn't possible for the division if we win 2 games.

EDIT: I guess if we go 1-5 with the one win coming against SEA and then Seattle beats Houston twice to finish 5-1 and Houston sweeps Arizona we would all finish 89-73. So you are correct that the magic number is 3. But that is the only scenario in which 3 is the magic number. My mistake again. Gawlee it's hard to think of every possibility.