You think you can put together a good list of possible pitching help with stats we can look at?

I think I will just go ahead an make the argument for a TORP (not disagreeing with how good Eovaldi and Dunning have been up to this point DallasAg). I am coming at this from a historical perspective on what prior WS winning teams have trotted out to the mound in the last five years. I am only going to put names and ERA+ because theres way to much information to break these down.

2022: Houston Astros
1 SP Framber Valdez - 135
2 SP Justin Verlander - 218 (absurd)
3 SP Jos Urquidy - 97 (don't remember him pitching much in the playoffs)
4 SP Luis Garcia - 103
5 SP Cristian Javier - 150

2021: Atlanta Braves
1 SP Charlie Morton - 130
2 SP Max Fried - 143
3 SP Ian Anderson - 121
4 SP Drew Smyly - 97
5 SP Huascar Ynoa - 107

2020: Los Angeles Dodgers
1 SP Clayton Kershaw - 202 (absurd)
2 SP Dustin May - 170
3 SP Julio Uras - 134
4 SP Tony Gonsolin - 189
5 SP Walker Buehler - 128
6 SP Ross Stripling - 78 (I want to say that he pitched lights out in the playoffs that year)

2019: Washington Nationals
1 SP Stephen Strasburg - 135
2 SP Patrick Corbin - 138
3 SP Max Scherzer - 154
4 SP Anbal Snchez - 117
5 SP Erick Fedde - 100

2018: Boston Red Sox
1 SP Rick Porcello - 103
2 SP David Price - 123
3 SP Chris Sale - 209 (absurd)
4 SP Eduardo Rodriguez - 116
5 SP Nathan Eovaldi - 133 (was freaking nail in the playoffs

2023 Current Rangers
1 SP Nathan Eovaldi - 161
2 SP Jon Gray - 131
3 SP Dane Dunning - 154
4 SP Martn Prez - 90
5 SP Andrew Heaney - 98

Now, I am very impressed with what Eovaldi, Gray, and Dunning have done up to this point and you can argue for just sticking with them and seeing what happens, but there are a few things I want to point out/mention.

1. Those teams above all had something that I don't think we do, which is at least one bona fide, badass, mf'ing stud who you knew was going to go out and do his job game after game. I like Eovaldi a ton and what he has brought to us, but lets not get crazy and say he's on the same level as Strasburg, Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Fried, Valdez or Verlander. All of these guys imo were next level pitchers, and something we currently don't have.

2. All of those teams went about four deep with good, reliable guys they could count on someway shape or form, where as we can really only say we are three deep at this point, and I think that's very debatable with how Gray has pitched recently.

3. Gray has really struggled now for about a month, has never pitched in the playoffs in big games, and can be wildly inconsistent. Dunning has been a revelation this season and all the credit to him, but I also have zero clue as to what I am going to get from him in a playoff scenario in a big game. Plus, guys with his profile I just struggle to trust in big spots without having seen it first.

I understand that we likely aren't getting a Sale, Strasburg, Scherzer, Verlander, etc. level of pitcher, but I truly do believe that we need someone else to fit into a top three, but likely a top two. What we have now just doesn't profile enough to winning a WS in my opinion.

MrCoachEricTaylor said:

---

You think you can put together a good list of possible pitching help with stats we can look at?

---

Probably.

Agreed. We don't need a TORP to make the playoffs or even win the division series. But once you get into CS and WS if you don't have a guy that gives you a significant advantage on the bump at least 2 games in a series you're just asking a whole lot from your team.

This is why I want either Scherzer or Ohtani. Have them pitch once a week and have them ready for October.

MrCoachEricTaylor said:

---

Kennedi Landry came up with this trade proposal.. way too much

---

Acuna and Foscue are blocked at the MLB level, they're likely to be moved at some point. If you're going to move on from Leiter, now is the time to do it. That's too much for a rental but if the deal came with a contract extension then I'd have to think about it.

I personally think Acuna is a game changing talent. Could be perfect to slide in to shortstop in a couple of years is/when Seager gets moved to DH, but he could also go the Duran route and play an outfield or utility spot.

Good info. The obvious response is that none of those rotations are likely to be of concern in 2023.

I'll respond to your premise. I think it is a good one, in that we all look at what it has taken. Regular season projections are good... Kershaw as someone considered elite (3 CYoungs) in the regular season was considered a post-season failure up until 2020.

The question is, what are we going to face this year. But, let's look to see how the WS teams won on Pitching.

I've added my numbers below, but the message actually is... you can get by with 2 Great SPs that can get you 5.0 IP and a helluva BP to win the WS.

2022 Houston Playoff SP performance:
Valdez: 4GS, 1.44 ERA, 25.0 IP
Verlander: 4GS, 5.85, 20.0 IP
Urquidy: 0GS, 1G, 0.00, 3.0 IP
Garcia: 0GS, 2G, 1.59 ERA, 5.2 IP
Javier: 2GS, 3G, 0.71 ERA, 12.2 IP

Big Deal:
Abreu: 10G, 0.00 ERA, 11.1 IP
Pressley: 10G, 0.00 ERA, 11.0 IP
Montero: 10G, 1.93 ERA, 9.1 IP

Whom you missed:
McCullers: 3GS, 5.87 ERA, 15.1 IP

Summary:
SP: 13 GS with 7 GS to the tune of 5.86 ERA (Verlander and McCullers): 35.1 IP, 26 ERs
BP: 30 Appearances from Abreu, Montero, Pressley, and Neris: 37.2 IP, 3 ER for 0.72 ERA

Narrative (TL DR):
Verlander with an "absurd" ERA+ crapped the playoff bed. 4 P rotation 2 were lights out and 2 were crappy
Of the 117 IP during their 13GS, 37.2 (32%) were handled by 4 Bullpen guys that gave up 3 ER (0.72 ERA)

2021 Atlanta Playoff SP performance:
Morton: 4GS, 3.24, 16.2 <- Didn't avg 5.0 IP
Fried: 5GS, 4.23, 27.2 IP
Anderson: 4GS, 1.59, 17.0 <- Didn't avg 5.0 IP
Smyly: 0GS, 3G, 6.14, 7.1 IP
Ynoa: 0GS, 1G, 18.00, 1.0 IP

Who also got a GS:
Jesse Chavez: 1GS, 7G, 0.00, 6.1IP <- Worth noting as a RP he went: 6G, 0.00 ERA, 5.1 IP
Davidson: 1GS, 9.00, 2.0 IP
Lee: 1GS, 3G, 6.00, 3.0 IP

Big Deal:
Will Smith: 11G, 0.00 ERA, 11.0 IP
Matzek: 13G, 1.72 ERA, 15.2 IP
Chris Martin: 5G, 2.08 ERA, 4.1 IP

Misses:
Luke Jackson: 11G, 5.19 ERA, 8.2 IP

Narrative (TL DR):
Mostly pedestrian SP. 3 P rotation that avg less than 5.0 IP/GS. 3GS by others that went 3.1 IP combined.
Of the 144 IP during their 16GS, 37.2 (26%) were handled by 3 Bullpen guys (Matzek, Minter, Smith) that gave up 7 ER (1.67 ERA)


2020 Dodgers Playoff SP performance:
Kershaw: 5GS, 2.93 ERA, 30.2 IP
May: 3GS, 7G, 4.22 ERA, 10.2 IP
Urias: 2GS, 6G, 1.17 ERA, 23.0 IP
Gonsolin: 3GS, 4G, 8.68 ERA, 9.1 IP
Buehler: 5GS, 1.80 ERA, 25.0 IP
Stripling: DNP

In May's 3 GS in the playoffs, he went 4.0 IP and a 4.50 ERA. That's 4 Outs per GS.a
In Urias 2 GS in the playoffs, he went 9.2 IP and a 2.79 ERA.


Narrative (TL DR):
Buehler and Kershaw combined for 10 GS, 55.2 IP, 15 ER (2.43 ERA)
Urias as a SP: 2 GS, 2.79 ERA, 9.2 IP
Gonsolin and May combined for 6 GS, 9 ER in 11.1 IP for a 7.16 ER

MrCoachEricTaylor said:

---

KT 90 said:

---

DallasAg 94 said:

---

MrCoachEricTaylor said:

---

You think you can put together a good list of possible pitching help with stats we can look at?

---

Probably.

---

Pretty sure DallasAg just canceled all his afternoon meetings and closed the office door

---

More important things going on

---

I think I'll wait on this one until after the weekend. It was kinda what I had in mind. I think we need to see where teams are really at and this weekend has the opportunity to really change things.

Additionally, I'll comment on this, which should give an indication of the flux we're in.

Tampa went from being interested in Ohtani, to Stroman (CHC), to Lorenzen (Det).
Houston went from Ohtani, to Cease, to Stroman, to Lorenzen

Ohtani: 18GS, 3.50
Stroman: 21GS, 3.09
Cease: 20 GS, 4.18
Lorenzen: 17GS, 3.49

Those are probably near the top of what's available, but it speaks tons that Buyers are downgrading their expectations. If Tampa or Houston strike and land someone like Lorenzen, I think we'll see a couple more responses and then the bottom falls out of SP and teams focus on RP.

Yeah, I think be next weekend we'll see a lot more of those borderline teams separate. Definitely think we need to pull back from Ohtani and lean more towards Cease, Scherzer, Flaherty/Montgomery. I've been pulling for a Flaherty and Hicks deal. Be interested in seeing how Speas looks leading up to the deadline. That would be one less spot we have to get filled.

Now, to look at the Rangers and compare to what I've picked at above.

Quest:
2 SP that can give you 4-5 GS, at least 5.0 IP, and a sub 3.00 ERA
4 RP that will go 10-11 App and give up about a 2.00 ERA.

For a non-WC team that goes:
ALDS: 2-2-1
ALCS: 2-3-2
WS: 2-3-2

You need 11 Ws out of 19G. 99 IP of 0.00 ERA.

The formula above would give you:
SP at the low end 8 GS, 40 IP and 13ER -> 2.925 ERA
RP at the low end 40 App, 40 IP and 9ER -> 2.025 ERA

Current Post Season Experience
Eovaldi: 6GS, 11G, 3.14 ERA in 43.0 IP. 2 seasons of Playoffs ('18, '21)
Heaney: 1G, 3.00 ERA, 3.0 IP. 1 season of Playoffs ('22)
Gray: 1G, 27.00 ERA, 1.1 IP ('17)
Perez: 5G, 9.00 ERA, 8.0 IP ('15, '21)
Dunning: 1GS, 0.00 ERA, 0.2 IP ('20)

Will Smith: 20G, 1.47 ERA, 18.1 IP, 6 Saves. 4 seasons of Playoffs ('16, '20, '21, '22)
Chapman: 35G, 2.40 ERA, 41.1 IP, 10 Saves. 7 seasons ('10, '12, '16-20)

I think with Eovaldi, Smith, and Chapman, I'd be comfortable saying we're solid on half those 6 positions.

One thing that helps a SP is a "Closer" type coming in once you start to struggle and keeping Inherited Runners from scoring.
Gray and Dunning are as good an unproven option as anyone else we might get.
Heaney and Perez are both Lefty's so, one of them likely makes the rotation.
All of our SP has at least been in a Playoff game.

Smith and Chapman are both Lefty's so, our big need is a RH RP. That would give us 3 RPs.

Leclerc, Speas, other homegrown option.. Sborz was cruising until he wasn't.

Now, let's do Offense.

DallasAg 94 said:

---

Now, let's do Offense.

---

Rangers:
1B: Lowe - .280 (3rd AL), .367 OBP (3rd AL)
2B: AL All Star
3B: AL All Star
SS: AL All Star
LF: <Platoon or upgrade>
CF: Taveras - .288 (4th in AL among all OF)
RF: AL All Star
C: AL All Star
DH: <Platoon or upgrade>

This is where you say, "Wow... Ohtani as your #4 SP and plug-in to DH."

Lineup today
M Semien (R) 2B
C Seager (L) SS
N Lowe (L) 1B
A Garca (R) RF
J Jung (R) 3B
J Heim (S) C
T Jankowski (L) LF
E Duran (R) DH
L Taveras (S) CF

Love that Bochy continues to ride Janko's hot bat. On that note, when does this become more than a fluke? He's at 59 GP and 173 ABs with a 136 ops+. Who had that on their bingo card to start the year?

I've really enjoyed watching his handling of the team. It makes such an enormous difference

gigem1223 said:

---

MrGigem, could you please shoot me your email address. I'd like to inquire on season tickets for next season. Thanks!

---

jchance@texasrangers.com

You guys are soft. I grew up in the outfield bleachers of Arlington Stadium. Nothing like the smell of hammies frying on aluminum during an August BP.

AgBQ-00 said:

---

I've really enjoyed watching his handling of the team. It makes such an enormous difference

---

He's way better than any manager we've ever had.

I really need someone to volunteer to go Chris Sale on these uniforms.

Californians everywhere

Heaney looks sharp

Yeah, that was a nice first inning.

Old Tom Morris said:

---

94chem said:

---

You guys are soft. I grew up in the outfield bleachers of Arlington Stadium. Nothing like the smell of hammies frying on aluminum during an August BP.

---

Saw some epic fights out there on busy nights. Nothing like $2 tickets and masses of poors drinking large amounts of alcohol to get things rolling

---

You must've been a right field fan. I'm sure things have changed, but old school baseball people knew that RF was for drinking and carousing, and LF was for watching the game. Was definitely true at Arlington Stadium.

Semien gets it going by showing his moral objection to walking. Then Seager shows him how to do it.

Lol Lowe with the excuse me homer

How'd that stay fair?

Did someone say Lowe couldn't hit a fast ball?