Proposition Joe said:
DallasAg 94 said:
Great... looking for your commentary, opinions, and application of information. Other than... "Pitcher A has a X.YZ ERA and therefore that is what he is."
I mean we could just look at career ERAs and deem a pitcher as such.
Will a SP in Colorado have exactly the same ERA if he moves from Colorado to Texas? Probably. According to you.
Will a SP that has never thrown over 100 IP be solid at 170-180 IP? Apparently so.
Thanks.
The most basic of application would be that large sample sizes trump small sample sizes and that while you can point out specific sub-sets that can be explained (say, "pitching in Colorado" or "his first season"), when you start stacking those sub-sets it's cherry-picking. Additionally when you don't apply those same "explanations" to the players you are comparing them to.
I did want to come back to this post. I wanted to address a couple points. 1st
Proposition Joe has posted in this Forum for as long as I can remember. He used a different moniker, if he is whom I believe he is. I do have respect for his opinion and believe him to be a very strong advocate for the Rangers and much to my chagrin, has a more balanced perspective year-in and year-out.
He often criticizes what he considers my cherry-picking of stats. I don't see it that way, and so... it is.
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For Gray alone... "take out his first season", "pitch selection since leaving Colorado", "blister on his finger".
The "take out his first season was specifically (and noted) to determine his GS/Yr. He was an August callup in his 1st season, and I also did not include this incomplete season. It would be normal to exclude partial seasons like that. An injury season would be (and was) included. It wasn't to cherry-pick, it was to exclude things not related to his performance.
Gray's reason coming to Texas, per Gray, was that the Rangers approached him about some things that they felt could make him a better overall pitcher. Gray indicated in the PC announcing his arrival, that the Rangers saw the same things he had concluded and felt that with the Rangers seeing the same things, it was a good match. About a month ago, Gray was asked about his pitch selection. He said that while he was in Colorado, he quit throwing a pitch (I don't recall which one and looked but couldn't find the info I vaguely referenced it). That was the perspective of the Rangers and Gray... not mine. Gray indicated that the pitch wasn't effective in the thin air of Colorado and when he went on the road, it was too hard to use it because it took time to get the feel back. So, he adopted his pitch selection from Colorado to use on the road. They didn't outright say that was what they both saw, but if you watch the presser, it seems pretty clear. Nick Martinez had a similar struggle adapting from Spring Training in Arizona, to the the heat and humidity in Texas. Nick had other issues like getting through the lineup a 2nd and 3rd time.
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Yet when talking about Javier for Houston you reference his 2022 breakout season, but that his June ERA of 4.19 this year should be sounding alarms to Houston fans... But fail to mention that in the 2022 breakout season you mentioned he put up a 4.56 ERA in July (followed by a 2.53 August, 0.40 Sept and 0.71 Postseason).
My point on Javier was less about his splits and more about the fact he has never pitched more than 150 IP in a season. His work load should be concerning as it is will all pitchers. That is why I reference 150 IP when mentioning SPs from Texas or other teams. To think workload is irrelevant is naive, IMO.
Let's look at the Sept/Oct 0.71 numbers. His pitched Aug 31, then Sept: 7, 14, 20, 25, Oct 1.
Days of Rest: 6, 6, 6, 5, 5
He had a 2.19 ERA with 6+ days of rest. We frequently talk about giving pitchers an extra day of rest for that very reason.
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Ultimately you could pick near any over 0.500 team in baseball and dissect their rotation down to small sample size statistics that show either a positive future or a negative future prognosis. Hell, you can do it with an entire roster.
Semien - 654 June OPS, alarm bells ringing that he's falling off a cliff?
Seager - can he stay healthy?
Jung - how will he fare now that the league has a book on him?
Gray - pitching 1.5 runs over his career ERA, will he revert to norm?
Dunning - pitching 1.5 runs over his career ERA, will he revert to norm?
To do that in a positive way for one team but a negative way for others is all very "statistically dishonest".
All legitimate questions that I think worth asking.
I think the H/A Splits for Perez are the type of things managers look at. Are they a strict indicator of future success? I don't know, but I'm going to feel much more confident having Perez pitch at home.
