All due respect but Dunning and Perez aren't in even in the same ballpark as Keller. Keller has ace potential and would easily slide into the 2 or 3 spot imo.

DallasAg 94 said:

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I've said all along the Rangers need to remain healthy. For sure.

I've looked at the Rangers. Texas has used 7 SP. 7. And that includes deGrom.

My point is not to say this is a World Series rotation... it is to say that our Rotation is better and more stable than any other in the AL. Any question you have about Injuries or "returning to career norms" with the Rangers... applies to everyone else.

Some of the differences are that other teams have lost far more of their 2023 rotation, so far.
We have lost deGrom. Best AL pitcher. We replaced him with Dunning who likely was in the 2023 rotation if we didn't acquire deGrom or Heaney.
Gray has had a Blister.
We lost Odorizzi, but he was always a question mark.
Many teams are relying on players that have not gone deep into the season.


Eovaldi (33): 16GS, 2.82 ERA, 105.1 IP
Career 4.05 ERA, 182.1 IP (3.75) in '21, 109.1 (3.87) in '22. His IP in 2023 are about what he did last year.
4.08 ERA over last 5 yrs with 103 IP/Yr. If you take out 2020 shortened season, he avg 117 IP each yr. He has pitched over 150 IP 3 times. He is probably a 3.80 SP. Pitching well above his career.
He went 94GS with a 4.05 ERA over the past 5 seasons in Boston.

Gray (31): 14GS, 2.89 ERA, 81.0 IP
Career 4.38 ERA over 9 yrs and 189 GS. Take out his 1st yr and incomplete 2023, he avg 23.7 GS/Yr. He has 172.1, 168.0, 150.0, and 140 IP in his 4 heaviest seasons. His splits are 4.37 (H) and 4.39 (A). So, pitching in Colorado hasn't shown to hurt his numbers statiscally.
Why has his number been better pitching for Texas. If you look at his pitch selection (per Gray's comments)... he quit throwing his Sinker in Colorado... and last year he abandoned his Slider in Texas. Per Gray, his pitch selection while in Colorado was influenced by the altitude. As a result, he threw what was effective in Colorado the same on the road. Moving to Texas, he has changed up his pitch selection and been more effective, as a result. Is it true? Will it continue? Don't know, but it might explain his increased success last year (3.96) and this year (2.89)
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jon-gray-592351?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His June ERA is 3.09. A bump up from his 2.81 ERA. Was that in part the blister? Have teams figured him out? Which way will he go? His line for June: 7.0, 0ER; 9.0 1ER, 2.1 IP 6 ER; 5.0 1ER.

Heaney (32): 15GS, 3.98 ERA, 72.1 IP
Heaney is a concern. He has 72.1 IP about what he pitched in 2022 (72.2). Career 4.50 ERA... a bit higher. While he has pitched 180.0 (2018) and in 2021 went 129.2. Heaney is an injury risk, but so far has been relatively consistent. His June numbers are 4.67, above his career numbers. Will that be him the rest of the season? We'll see.

Perez (32): 15GS, 4.38 ERA, 84.1 IP
Perez had a phenom season in 2022 with 196.1 IP and a 2.89 ERA. If he has been anything... he has been durable. In the past 7seasons, he has avg 143.7 IP with a 4.50 ERA. About what he has done this season. June has him at 4.24 ERA. The bulk of those at TB (3.1 IP, 7 ER). The other 3GS (20IP, 4 ER). A Jekyll and Hyde pitcher with a 1.71 ERA @Home... and a 5.98 ERA on the Road. 3.34 ERA on Turf and a 5.11 ERA on Grass. Are those anomalies or opportunities?

Dunning (28): 9GS, 3.16 ERA, 51.1 IP
His overall ERA for 2023 is 2.76 showing when he comes out of the BP, he seems to benefit. He has a career 4.11 ERA, so pitching better than he has shown. He threw 153.1 IP in 2022 and 117.2 in 2021. His numbers have trended to the positive.

Bradford (25): 3GS, 5.65 ERA, 14.1 IP
Mainly a filler that could get spot-starts to rest the rotation. After getting blown up in his debut, he has gone 9.1 IP, 3 ER for a 2.89 ERA in his last 2 GS. What does he offer? Right now, just a foot note.

deGrom (35): 6GS, 2.67 ERA, <- 60IL TJ
Odorizzi <- Out

I know this is tl dr.
Last point... there are 2 ways to look at the rotation. 1st is, can the rotation get you to the playoffs without chewing up your BP. 2nd is, do you have the star SPs to win in the playoffs once you get there.

You need mid and back of the rotation guys to get you through the season. I'm fine considering Perez and Dunning as Innings guys. If they get you 5-6 IP and a 4.50 ERA... great. You take Heaney and Bradford for what they can do to protect the BP.
You need minimum of 3 SPs in the playoffs. Who are the matchups? Right now if we go Eovaldi-Gray as our 1-2... what are the other team's 1-2?!

Our 1-2 matches up with anyone else. Then, we have 3 guys who... if they remain healthy can be sorted out as a #3.

We could use a ToTR SP for a 1-2-3... but if you can't give me a 1-2-3 on another team that is better than Eovaldi-Gray-(Perez/Dunning/Heaney)... then our SP is fine.

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Thanks for the update. Helps to put things into perspective for the Rangers as well regarding some potential red flags. We will need to make a move or two for fortify the staff, will be interesting as always to see how it shakes out.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Great... looking for your commentary, opinions, and application of information. Other than... "Pitcher A has a X.YZ ERA and therefore that is what he is."

I mean we could just look at career ERAs and deem a pitcher as such.

Will a SP in Colorado have exactly the same ERA if he moves from Colorado to Texas? Probably. According to you.

Will a SP that has never thrown over 100 IP be solid at 170-180 IP? Apparently so.

Thanks.

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The most basic of application would be that large sample sizes trump small sample sizes and that while you can point out specific sub-sets that can be explained (say, "pitching in Colorado" or "his first season"), when you start stacking those sub-sets it's cherry-picking. Additionally when you don't apply those same "explanations" to the players you are comparing them to.

For Gray alone... "take out his first season", "pitch selection since leaving Colorado", "blister on his finger".

Yet when talking about Javier for Houston you reference his 2022 breakout season, but that his June ERA of 4.19 this year should be sounding alarms to Houston fans... But fail to mention that in the 2022 breakout season you mentioned he put up a 4.56 ERA in July (followed by a 2.53 August, 0.40 Sept and 0.71 Postseason).

Ultimately you could pick near any over 0.500 team in baseball and dissect their rotation down to small sample size statistics that show either a positive future or a negative future prognosis. Hell, you can do it with an entire roster.

Semien - 654 June OPS, alarm bells ringing that he's falling off a cliff?
Seager - can he stay healthy?
Jung - how will he fare now that the league has a book on him?
Gray - pitching 1.5 runs over his career ERA, will he revert to norm?
Dunning - pitching 1.5 runs over his career ERA, will he revert to norm?


To do that in a positive way for one team but a negative way for others is all very "statistically dishonest".

I didn't ask you to analyze my critique. I want YOUR critique of the rotations.

Just like you cherry picking your criticism of me... you are doing exactly what you complain that I've done.

Tell me about YOUR view of TB's rotation and Houston's rotation and compare them to our situation.

I've asked... compare the 3 teams' 1-2-3. You should be really good at it because you recognize the flaws in my comparisons. You should be able to help teach me.

I'm running out of popcorn.

gigem1223 said:

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All due respect but Dunning and Perez aren't in even in the same ballpark as Keller. Keller has ace potential and would easily slide into the 2 or 3 spot imo.

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I haven't followed him which is why I asked. What is it that makes him better?

I'm on notice that a guy with a career 4.64 ERA who has a 2023 ERA of 3.46 is in fact... a 4.64 ERA pitcher and will resort back to his average. /sarcasm.

My concern about him is that he only has 2 additional years of team control left and if he and Dunning are similar pitchers, does he improve upon what we have.

Keller (27): 4.64 ERA in 84 GS; 3.45 ERA in 16 GS <- 428.1 Career IP
Dunning (28): Career: 4.11 ERA in 70 GS; 2023: 2.76 in 9GS (17G) <- 342.2 Career IP

If Keller is really a 2024-25 guy, I'd hate to give up someone like Owen White or Leiter in hopes Keller becomes a ToTR guy.

Need to take care of business against the lowly tigers. Especially tonight, win this evening and we gain ground on pretty much everyone.

Mitch Keller has better stuff than Dunning in almost every way. His fastball average is 95.6, while Dunnings is 90.6 (just one of the many differences). Mitch Keller on top, Dunning on bottom.

Tksymm7 said:

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Mitch Keller has better stuff than Dunning in almost every way. His fastball average is 95.6, while Dunnings is 90.6 (just one of the many differences). Mitch Keller on top, Dunning on bottom.

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Besides this he's also one of the best strike out pitchers in baseball and has one of the highest WARs (higher than Gray, Perez, Dunning, and Heaney)

Rangers GM Chris Young just on @gbagnation on @1053thefan. "I saw there was a rumor out there today regarding an offensive player that literally we've had zero contact with that team so where that rumor came from, it really is amazing to me that those things get floated like that https://t.co/hlbNRvPdI1

— Gavin Spittle (@gjspittle) June 26, 2023

In all fairness, CY and JD before him were pretty stealth about trades and such. CY will do something because he knows we have a very good chance to go far in the playoffs.

As far as the All-star game, honestly, I could care less about so many Rangers to get in. I would prefer them to rest for the stretch run. We have a real shot and an exhibition game means nothing to me.

Sounds like the deal is imminent.

Wyatt Langford is making a real case for the best college hitter going into the 2023 draft. It's likely still Crews because of his total body of work, but wow is Langford a stud too.

Tksymm7 said:

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Wyatt Langford is making a real case for the best college hitter going into the 2023 draft. It's likely still Crews because of his total body of work, but wow is Langford a stud too.

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Langford or Skenes are who I'm hoping falls to us

If the Pirates pull some shenanigans we could get Langford. I would love Skenes too, but I just don't see Washington passing on him.

Walker Jenkins is awesome too. Not sure we can miss.

Langford is my favorite

FYI....from Bleacher Report's most recent mock...

"It looks like the Rangers will be picking between high school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins, with Clark offering a more well-rounded game and five-tool potential, while Jenkins has a higher floor and a more polished offensive game. There is also an outside chance the Rangers could try to cut a below-slot deal here since their next pick is not until the fourth round and they could try for an above-slot signing there."

Yeah I think we're just speculating and doing some wishful thinking about being able to get Skenes or Langford. I full expect it to be a 1-2-3 of Crews, Skenes and Langford. I suspect it will be Walker, which is also completely fine with me, but I wonder if they did the "sign for less, have for me later approach" who it would be?

Lead off bomb for Semien!

Atta baby Marcus!

That doesn't look good for Boyd.

Brad Miller is in the dugout? Thought he was in AAA?

Yeah that is unfortunate. Really weird turn of events. Gotta respect the catcher for recognizing and stepping in like that.

Well… injuries suck, but unfortunately are part of the game. Would be nice to take advantage, get into their bullpen and tire it out. At least blow this game open.

We really to go 6-2 or 5-3 on this homestand.

Too bad for Boyd.

Dang, he's been in the bugs for 8 years. He was part of the David Price trade to Toronto in 2015.

What happened to Boyd? I just turned the game on

Looks like he hurt his elbow.

Something with his throwing arm.

That was ugly Zeke

Some of the swing and miss numbers are pretty wild with a few guys.

Wow another pitcher down?