***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

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Mr.Bond
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2:40p, 3/1/23
AG
I vividly remember having discussions with buddies who was going to he the star between Ward and Berkman.


Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to bigjag19 • 2:46p, 3/1/23
AG
bigjag19 said:
Including today, isn't opening day in 30 days?
I'll try again next year
Life is better with a beagle
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:01p, 3/1/23
AG
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Keeper of The Spirits
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3:28p, 3/1/23
AG
Valdez and Javier, should be a good one
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bullard21k
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3:43p, 3/1/23
AG
Ward had such a pretty swing too
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Farmer1906
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4:12p, 3/1/23
AG
It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:15p, 3/1/23
AG
Pena
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 4:22p, 3/1/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
Pena
Its pretty much in line with Michael Harris who got 8/72. Not far off from Strider or Murphy either. Pena is the worst player out of that group of 4.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:23p, 3/1/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
Pena saw what Julio got in Seattle. There's no way he's taking something that low.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:25p, 3/1/23
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
Farmer1906 said:
It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
Pena saw what Julio got in Seattle. There's no way he's taking something that low.
What makes you think Julio and Pena are similar?

.284
.345
.509
.853
147

vs

.253
.289
.426
.715
101

I wouldn't be mad if they incentived it like Julio though.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:27p, 3/1/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
Farmer1906 said:
It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
Pena saw what Julio got in Seattle. There's no way he's taking something that low.
What makes you think Julio and Pena are similar?

.284
.345
.509
.853
147

vs

.253
.289
.426
.715
101
One is a world series MVP. The other is a rookie of the year. He's not taking a cheap deal. I think it would be taken as an insult if he was offered something that low.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:29p, 3/1/23
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
Farmer1906 said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
Farmer1906 said:
It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
Pena saw what Julio got in Seattle. There's no way he's taking something that low.
What makes you think Julio and Pena are similar?

.284
.345
.509
.853
147

vs

.253
.289
.426
.715
101
One is a world series MVP. The other is a rookie of the year. He's not taking a cheap deal. I think it would be taken as an insult if he was offered something that low.
Do you mean a deal similar to what a much more proven player like Javier just took? That is an insult?

Look at the similar players based on his 2022 season.

[ol]
  • Khalil Greene (968.4)
  • Bobby Crosby (965.9)
  • Russ Adams (965.0)
  • Stephen Drew (960.9)
  • Josh Rutledge (959.3)
  • Ian Desmond (958.4)
  • Orlando Cabrera (949.6)
  • William Contreras (948.8)
  • Brad Miller (945.3)
  • Milt Bolling (941.7)
    • [/ol]
    That doesn't scream 200 M player to me.
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    ChAg1799
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    In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 4:32p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Lonestar_Ag09 said:
    I bought a pair of Trout cleats for my son. Even sized up a half and they fit like crap so I returned them and just got regular under armor


    You mean they were over priced AND overrated? Seems right to me.
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    Ag_07
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    4:38p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Classic Farmer...Ask our opinion then argue when it's not what he thinks.

    And FWIW I don't think you can compare Pena and Javier simply due to their backstories and where they come from.

    Javier was a international signee who came out of nowhere from nothing. Pena is a college player who was drafted and was a top prospect who's dad was a MLB player. Totally different situations that I'm sure play a part into what each one is willing to take.
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    Harry Dunne
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    In reply to Ag_07 • 4:45p, 3/1/23
    Ag_07 said:
    Classic Farmer...Ask our opinion then argue when it's not what he thinks.

    And FWIW I don't think you can compare Pena and Javier simply due to their backstories and where they come from.

    Javier was a international signee who came out of nowhere from nothing. Pena is a college player who was drafted and was a top prospect who's dad was a MLB player. Totally different situations that I'm sure play a part into what each one is willing to take.
    Good post.

    Also re: Comparing Peña to Julio, obviously no one is saying they are the same player or are going to get the same money...but I think it's fair to say that Peña would want/deserve/expect 75% of what Julio is getting.
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    Farmer1906
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    In reply to Ag_07 • 4:45p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Ag_07 said:
    Classic Farmer...Ask our opinion then argue when it's not what he thinks.

    And FWIW I don't think you can compare Pena and Javier simply due to their backstories and where they come from.

    Javier was a international signee who came out of nowhere from nothing. Pena is a college player who was drafted and was a top prospect who's dad was a MLB player. Totally different situations that I'm sure play a part into what each one is willing to take.
    Maybe. What do you think is a better deal for everyone? Lets see some reasoning behind it.
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    Farmer1906
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    In reply to Harry Dunne • 4:52p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Y'all are crazy if you think he's getting 150 M at 25 with 5 years left of team control.
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    Harry Dunne
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    In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:01p, 3/1/23
    I don't think he's getting anything. I'm talking about what I think would be fair.

    I just think there's no way he takes 7/60, which seems like a no-brainer for the Astros. Meaning it's probably not a no-brainer for Peña.

    It's really hard to say what's "fair". He didn't exactly come out of nowhere but he was what, the #70something prospect in baseball last year so there is some fear IMO that he will crash back down to earth and be "just" a great defensive SS with some pop but who never stops chasing too much.

    At the same time if you look at this list of "greatest rookie seasons ever by a SS" (tempered greatly by the fact that Aledmys is on it), you'll see JP had a higher rookie WAR than Correa or Lindor or Tatis Jr...and if they updated this list he would certainly be on it.

    https://thebaseballscholar.com/2020/04/12/the-greatest-rookie-seasons-by-a-shortstop/

    My guess is that they are going to wait and see what 2023 turns out like for him.
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    W
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    5:05p, 3/1/23
    AG
    yes, it's one of those tricky things for a front office.

    when a player has an average or good regular season...and then a great postseason.

    cannot overreact to that
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    Lonestar_Ag09
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    5:10p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Not saying they're the same.

    But compare Pena's numbers to say Tatis including defense.

    I think the only way you buy out 4-5 years of control is if you're going 4-5 past it.
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    Farmer1906
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    In reply to Harry Dunne • 5:12p, 3/1/23
    AG
    You might want to check your article. I checked the WAR on baseball reference & Fangraphs and Correa's isn't matching either. And as WAR is somewhat of a counting stat it's kind of silly to compare someone who played a full season vs other who played shorter ones. Tatis Jr, Correa, Seager, etc all hot at a very high level. A level that would get you into the HOF over a career. Pena only did that for short bursts mixed with really low lows.
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    redline248
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    In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:12p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Farmer1906 said:
    Y'all are crazy if you think he's getting 150 M at 25 with 5 years left of team control.
    Only one who brought up extending him was you
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    Ag_07
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    In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:17p, 3/1/23
    AG
    I don't have the time or the inclination to pull up pages of stats and contract comps.

    I just know Pena has played 1 year and his trophy case is stocked. GG, ALCS, and WS MVP

    He'd be nuts to take anything right now unless it's astronomical which the Astros aren't gonna do.

    Let's let it play out and see if he can improve on things and keep progressing. That's the smart play for both sides.
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    Harry Dunne
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    In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:23p, 3/1/23
    Farmer1906 said:
    You might want to check your article. I checked the WAR on baseball reference & Fangraphs and Correa's isn't matching either. And as WAR is somewhat of a counting stat it's kind of silly to compare someone who played a full season vs other who played shorter ones. Tatis Jr, Correa, Seager, etc all hot at a very high level. A level that would get you into the HOF over a career. Pena only did that for short bursts mixed with really low lows.
    I'm sure you're right on the WAR but like the others have said, I have no desire to spend a bunch of time running comps and don't need to in order to know that:

    • Peña is pretty damn good and had a historic rookie SS season
    • He would never take something like what you initially put out there

    BTW if Peña kept this up for 15 years he'd have a higher career WAR than Jeter.

    No, I'm not saying he's going to be the next Jeter or get a Jeter contract. I'm just stating a fact.
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    Deluxe
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    5:32p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Tend to agree that Peña would probly bet on himself if the offer is 7/$60.

    I think we probly need a nine figure headline offer to get him to seriously consider. Say 8/$100. So 3 year tack on.

    It remains to be seen if he's going to bust down the door and emerge as a perennial all star caliber player, but IMO his floor is high enough to justify a commitment that's above market comp.

    He's gonna play GG caliber short stop. He's not afraid of the big stage. He's gonna hit 20+ dingers. All that without taking his upside cases into account.
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    MaxPower
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    In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 7:47p, 3/1/23
    EastCoastAgNc said:
    Farmer1906 said:
    EastCoastAgNc said:
    Farmer1906 said:
    It's been just over 2 weeks since the Javier extension. I am ready for the next one. Let's give Pena 7/60 M. Who says no?
    Pena saw what Julio got in Seattle. There's no way he's taking something that low.
    What makes you think Julio and Pena are similar?

    .284
    .345
    .509
    .853
    147

    vs

    .253
    .289
    .426
    .715
    101
    One is a world series MVP. The other is a rookie of the year. He's not taking a cheap deal. I think it would be taken as an insult if he was offered something that low.
    You giving Bucky Dent $200M?
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    Lonestar_Ag09
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    In reply to Deluxe • 7:55p, 3/1/23
    AG
    Deluxe said:
    Tend to agree that Peña would probly bet on himself if the offer is 7/$60.

    I think we probly need a nine figure headline offer to get him to seriously consider. Say 8/$100. So 3 year tack on.

    It remains to be seen if he's going to bust down the door and emerge as a perennial all star caliber player, but IMO his floor is high enough to justify a commitment that's above market comp.

    He's gonna play GG caliber short stop. He's not afraid of the big stage. He's gonna hit 20+ dingers. All that without taking his upside cases into account.
    If I'm him I don't take that either. He isn't a youngster, we have control until he is 30, if we buy that extra 3 that means he hits FA to be able to finally make big money at 33 and he has only made 12.5/year . Why would he not want to gamble on himself?

    Now if you maybe go at him with a 10/150 number and maybe add some incentives then he might be willing to consider a lower yearly total for the extra years. At that point he is 35 still able to get a larger contract possibly but if he has started to have heath issues he has now been under contract long enough to qualify for a lifetime MLB pension (10yr in the league)
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    astros4545
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    8:13p, 3/1/23
    AG
    I don't know why y'all act like he would be an idiot to take a guaranteed $75M and never have to get another hit in his life
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    Deluxe
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    In reply to astros4545 • 8:28p, 3/1/23
    AG
    astros4545 said:
    I don't know why y'all act like he would be an idiot to take a guaranteed $75M and never have to get another hit in his life

    It's not an unfair take. Locking in $75 mil after one year in the bigs puts you in high class company.

    I think it will take more, but the wide range of opinions on this thread are evidence of what I'm guessing is a wide bid/ask between the two parties at this juncture.
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    JB!98
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    9:05p, 3/1/23
    AG
    I am getting ready to roll with this Astros season. While disappointed in how the Ags have started the year, I am still in. It is disconcerting to me the lack of "rally boobs" on the Aggie baseball threads. Someone please assure me that we are still going to do that here without persecution. I am an old and the simple things seem to add value.

    Thanks in advance.
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    Harry Dunne
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    In reply to JB!98 • 9:15p, 3/1/23
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    Lonestar_Ag09
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    9:30p, 3/1/23
    AG
    https://instagr.am/p/CpLD5PhOeUA

    https://instagr.am/p/CoIMFbmpqSt

    https://instagr.am/p/CmxlzLJrEoX
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    Harry Dunne
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    In reply to astros4545 • 9:33p, 3/1/23
    astros4545 said:
    I don't know why y'all act like he would be an idiot to take a guaranteed $75M and never have to get another hit in his life
    I wouldn't call him an idiot. That's a lot of money.

    I just think if he lets it play out he's probably going to get more $ than that and rarely do you see someone go safe & pass on the opportunity to make more.

    On the Singleton deal I wonder how much of it was the team truly thinking they were getting a bargain deal on a future star vs him having a savvy agent who knew he was about to smoke his career away and grabbed for him what $ he could while he still had a chance.
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    The Porkchop Express
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    In reply to ChAg1799 • 9:36p, 3/1/23
    AG
    ChAg1799 said:
    Lonestar_Ag09 said:
    I bought a pair of Trout cleats for my son. Even sized up a half and they fit like crap so I returned them and just got regular under armor


    You mean they were over priced AND overrated? Seems right to me.
    Plus by the time September and October rolled around they were totally worn out.
    Life is better with a beagle
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    Lonestar_Ag09
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    9:36p, 3/1/23
    AG
    https://instagr.am/p/Ckm2VFWOk3S
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