Matt Gage vs. Jose Altuve pic.twitter.com/QiSZ0bbALU

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) February 23, 2023

Matt Gage is someone to keep an eye on. I've heard the organization is extremely high on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up playing a key role this year.

Farmer1906 said:

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Prosperdick said:

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astros4545 said:

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The Astros knew Verlander would get his rightful deal, McCullers might take time, but besides rotation Brown, they rejected several serious inquiries for Bryan Abreu, who many from the pitching and international side believe can be a top three starter.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) February 23, 2023

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I'm too lazy to look it up but last year I talked about Abreu potentially as a starter. It's intriguing to think about and would really bolster our starting rotation but obviously it's not going to happen anytime soon (unless we start to have major issues/injuries pile up).

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Obviously, it would be better if he could start, but how do you even begin that process? He hasn't thrown more than 2.1 IP in his major league career. It was back in 2019 in AA where he was a starter. ~90% of his pitches are fastball or slider. He'd have to really develop that curve more. Does he lose some of that velo moving to start? If so, does he downgrade how good he is? By doing this transition, do you risk screwing up a very good thing you have now?

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It certainly would be a risk but it's not unprecedented. Is Abreu motivated to be a starter? I'm not sure but if he is it's certainly something you work on in the off-season with different types of workouts and like you mentioned, working on improving his secondary pitches.

I think he could make more money as a big-time starter but he seems well on his way to eventually becoming a big-time closer, which also will make him more money. Anyway, something interesting to follow with his career.

Prosperdick said:

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astros4545 said:

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The Astros knew Verlander would get his rightful deal, McCullers might take time, but besides rotation Brown, they rejected several serious inquiries for Bryan Abreu, who many from the pitching and international side believe can be a top three starter.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) February 23, 2023

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I'm too lazy to look it up but last year I talked about Abreu potentially as a starter. It's intriguing to think about and would really bolster our starting rotation but obviously it's not going to happen anytime soon (unless we start to have major issues/injuries pile up).

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I think it was a few days after the World Series. Someone mentioned he may get some starts this season.

Shane is from my dad's home town. My grandmother taught Shane's mother in elementary school. He lived in Sugar Land while playing for the Astros and when I was in high school one year I would work out after school at the country club at the same time as him. Played catch with him a handful of times. Really nice guy in my obviously very limited interaction.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Matt Gage vs. Jose Altuve pic.twitter.com/QiSZ0bbALU

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) February 23, 2023

Matt Gage is someone to keep an eye on. I've heard the organization is extremely high on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up playing a key role this year.

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I wonder why. Nothing really jumps off the page. Not a high-spin guy. Predominantly throws 4seam and cutter. No crazy movement. His story is nice. He's persevered and seems like a team player (no ego). An effective LHP can't hurt so hopefully he's it.

If we're going to move Abreu to SP, we'd probly need to start working on that transition ASAP this spring. That doesn't seem like a move you make mid-season.

I remember Strom talked about as an eventual SP when he first came up and I've heard rumors that's where Abreu wants to be as well. I'm admittedly intrigued by the idea.

But I'd leave him in the pen for 2023. Even if you could de-risk the idea and assume he'd be just as effective as a SP, I think our optimal roster construction keeps him in the same role he finished 2022 with.

With that said, I'd give the idea of moving him to SP an honest assessment next offseason based on how our roster looks at that time.

Will Martinez or Gage emerge as a leverage option? Who are we gonna keep out of Maton/Stanek/Neris? Will Whitley, Dubin or someone else step up and give us additional rotation length/depth?

The scenario where it might make sense to move Abreu next year would be if 1) the back-end of our bullpen is otherwise solidified and 2) concerns emerge this year over the quality and length of the rotation (ie LMJ arm conerns, maybe H Brown doesn't perform as advertised, etc). I don't see that playing out sitting here today but you never know.

Pretty good article about Shane Reynolds and his son with some nice stuff about Strom…

https://therunnersports.com/former-astros-pitcher-shane-reynolds-cheers-son/

Brent Strom said:

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He was my favorite pitcher I ever worked with. I've never had a pitcher who took the information that I gave, and not really knowing him well then as I do now, I never had a pitcher take the information and work as hard.

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Agree. It with would need to be the plan at the end of a season so he could work on it all offseason, spring, etc.

If we're projecting the 2024 rotation, we still have Framber, Javier, McCullers, Garica, Urquidy, Brown plus anyone that emerges (Whitley). Guess what? All 6 are under control for 2025 too. Assuming no more extensions, we only lose Framber & Urquidy in 2026. Something would have to go really wrong or the org would really believe in Abreu to translate into an ace-level guy. If the ceiling is a Spencer Strider type, how could we not? We have Abreu for '23, '24, '25, and '26.

Farmer1906 said:

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Agree. It with would need to be the plan at the end of a season so he could work on it all offseason, spring, etc.

If we're projecting the 2024 rotation, we still have Framber, Javier, McCullers, Garica, Urquidy, Brown plus anyone that emerges (Whitley). Guess what? All 6 are under control for 2025 too. Assuming no more extensions, we only lose Framber & Urquidy in 2026. Something would have to go really wrong or the org would really believe in Abreu to translate into an ace-level guy. If the ceiling is a Spencer Strider type, how could we not? We have Abreu for '23, '24, '25, and '26.

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Yea. It seems like we've got more question marks in the bullpen going into 2024 than the rotation. That could potentially change, but as of today, keeping Abreu in the pen 2024+ will likely continue to make sense from a roster construction standpoint.

Like you said, the other aspect to this is how good we think he could be as a SP. Even if roster construction favors keeping him as a RP, he could still potentially add more "value" to the team as a starter. If we project him as a Strider, might make sense to try him in the rotation. If we project him as Luis Garcia, keep him in the bullpen. The fact that neither is guaranteed makes me continue to lean toward keeping him the pen. Interesting offseason fodder though.

we've discussed Click's ledger -- the positive and the negative...

the decision to hang onto Urquidy at the deadline last year...is a big one on the positive side

Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Lance having a "minor" injury seems as inevitable as taxes at this point. Has there been a year where he has been fully healthy through the playoffs since 2017-2018?

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2020

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That one doesn't count. 1/3 of a season

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Lance having a "minor" injury seems as inevitable as taxes at this point. Has there been a year where he has been fully healthy through the playoffs since 2017-2018?

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2020

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That one doesn't count. 1/3 of a season

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It's a year and he was fully healthy.

keeping Urquidy was a positive.

on the flipside...Click gave Lance the 5-year extension after the 2020 season...and that one keeps waffling back and forth

Astros Manager Dusty Baker talks about who may need to step up with McCullers out for now. @karbachbrewing @Astros pic.twitter.com/hzUvZltqyZ

— SportsTalk 790 (@SportsTalk790) February 23, 2023

W said:

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keeping Urquidy was a positive.

on the flipside...Click gave Lance the 5-year extension after the 2020 season...and that one keeps waffling back and forth

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Yeah but say he had waited until after 2021. Lance pitched 162 innings with a 3.16 ERA and finished 7 in CY voting.

He would've gotten it then and it could've been more.

It's easy to say he should've waited until a full year after his TJ especially being under team control but looking back it's not that cut and dry.

Ag_07 said:

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W said:

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keeping Urquidy was a positive.

on the flipside...Click gave Lance the 5-year extension after the 2020 season...and that one keeps waffling back and forth

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Yeah but say he had waited until after 2021. Lance pitched 162 innings with a 3.16 ERA and finished 7 in CY voting.

He would've gotten it then and it could've been more.

It's easy to say he should've waited until a full year after his TJ especially being under team control but looking back it's not that cut and dry.

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All about timing. Astros would have needed to go closer to 100 M, maybe more in Sept of 2021. Then if he hits FA he wouldn't have gotten much at all because in doubt he would have been able to pass a physical. It would have been more like a 1 year prove it with an option for year two.

bigjag19 said:

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Jackal99 said:

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Just announced. I don't know when the playoffs start and I'm too tired to google all that. Odds this gets the Elton John treatment?

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Don't forget Elton was only a problem because of the lockout.

Anyone have presale?

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Use code ASTROS at checkout and get your tickets today!

Yeah when it happened I thought it was a win-win deal.

It was doing Lance a favor doing it so close to his TJ and he did the team a favor by accepting 5/85.

I ain't mad at it

Confirmation

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Confirmation

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Switch hitters but get both then

Pretty dumb to have the thumbnail be Luis but they don't talk about him. But they do have some horribly bad and comical takes about the recent cheating discussions.

Farmer1906 said:

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I have been reading up on the farm and I have officially talked myself into believing in the following guys:

• Brown (duh)
• Hensley (don't know where he projects but he's a big leaguer)
• Diaz (his bat, not catching skills)
• Dubin (as a reliever)
• Blanco (ready to contribute)
• Gilbert (stud)
• Barber (my pick to make it to the bigs before Gilbert and Melton)
• Melton (go out on a limb and say highest ceiling of the 4 top OFers)
• Leon (tools for days, just gotta put it together... somewhat worried)
• Arrighetti (next LMJ? he's got the flow and the slider to match)
• Whitley (picked a random 2022 start and he had 5 pitches above 99, 10 above 98, and spin for days.)
• Taylor (low 90s fast with high spin.... where have we heard that before?)
• Murray (Click's last move that we'll be thankful for down the road)

I think the writers were wrong about our farm system for the last 4 years and I think they're still wrong.

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Good stuff.

We've got a few top tier guys that I'm expecting good things from, some mainstays who we need to see something from this year, and then we've got some strength in numbers P/OF (where we've got like 5-7 guys who could emerge and only need like 1-2 to actually emerge).

H Brown - Gimme this year

Gilbert - Gimme next year

Leon - The idea that he's going to bust onto the scene like we hoped for a few years ago is probably gone, but could still be a valuable utility player. I'm hoping for Aledmys with more athleticism/speed and less bat. Thinking super long term, if he can make incremental progress the next 4-5 years, I could see him taking over 2B when Altuve retires or has to DH.

Blanco - Agreed. He's a 2023 breakout candidate.

Whitley/Hensley/Y Diaz - Ready to see what they can do in the show this year.

OF numbers (Barber, Melton, Daniels, Dirden, Clifford) - Just need 1-2 of them to emerge

P numbers (Murray, Arrighetti, Tamarez, Taylor, Dubin, Santos) - Just need 1-2 of them to emerge

Farmer1906 said:

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I think the writers were wrong about our farm system for the last 4 years and I think they're still wrong.

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Of course they are. Seems like half our current MLB starters were $15,000 international signings and were never high on prospect lists.

Writers don't actually rank prospects. They adjust prospects from their original draft position based on performance and those rankings are sticky, but someone killing it in the minors out of nowhere isn't just going to become a top prospect until they're doing it in AA or AAA and even then they won't be considered a top prospect.

Forrest Whitley was still our top ranked prospect above Tucker and Alvarez in 2018/2019. Javier stayed a lower tier prospect until called up. So did Framber. Urquidy wasn't in our top 20 at the start of the 2019 season and ended up pitching effectively for us in the World Series. Chas wasn't considered as a prospect that even really had a shot to make the majors in 2020 (our 45th ranked prospect). Pena still wasn't a Top 100 prospect at the end of the 2021 season.

They're consistently wrong about our ability to scout and develop talent, so I mostly ignore their prospect lists now.

Buck Compton said:

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Writers don't actually rank prospects. They adjust prospects from their original draft position based on performance and those rankings are sticky, but someone killing it in the minors out of nowhere isn't just going to become a top prospect until they're doing it in AA or AAA and even then they won't be considered a top prospect.

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Yep. That's pretty much exactly what they do.

I think we've been able to take advantage of those rankings in some of our trades too. I wouldn't be surprised if we knew relatively quickly that guys like Daz Cameron, Seth Beer and JB Bukauskas were going to struggle at the big league level, so we dealt them while they were still "ranked" high.

Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Lance having a "minor" injury seems as inevitable as taxes at this point. Has there been a year where he has been fully healthy through the playoffs since 2017-2018?

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2020

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That one doesn't count. 1/3 of a season

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It's a year and he was fully healthy.

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Let me rephrase the question. Has there been a full 162 game season where he has been healthy from start through playoffs since 2017-2018

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Lance having a "minor" injury seems as inevitable as taxes at this point. Has there been a year where he has been fully healthy through the playoffs since 2017-2018?

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2020

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That one doesn't count. 1/3 of a season

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It's a year and he was fully healthy.

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Let me rephrase the question. Has there been a full 162 game season where he has been healthy from start through playoffs since 2017-2018

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Are you asking if he was healthy is 21 or 22? Do you need that answered?