I'm honestly not sure. A seems to be best in terms of xFIP. B is best in terms of giving up hard hit balls/barrels. C is best in terms of strike outs.
***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***
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I don't think there is an obvious answer. I think agproducer is spot on about them being borderline #1/#2 types.
So who are they?
A
B
C
Or as I like to call them, the best 1 thru 3 in baseball.
Stats are 2021-22 combined.
B
C
Or as I like to call them, the best 1 thru 3 in baseball.
Stats are 2021-22 combined.
Good stuff. That's who I originally thought they were but I couldn't tie out their stats. I was only looking at 2022 though.
Is LuAce our clear #4 heading into the year? Or is it close between him and Urquidy?
(Assuming we rev up Brown gradually this year)
Is LuAce our clear #4 heading into the year? Or is it close between him and Urquidy?
(Assuming we rev up Brown gradually this year)
Let's go!!!!!!
See you tomorrow, @Ballpark_PB!#AstrosST pic.twitter.com/v9O0w8oD47
— Houston Astros (@astros) February 14, 2023
I think LuAce is the clear #4 (which is incredible), Brown and Urquidy as 5/6 until, as you said, Brown gets into it.Deluxe said:
Good stuff. That's who I originally thought they were but I couldn't tie out their stats. I was only looking at 2022 though.
Is LuAce our clear #4 heading into the year? Or is it close between him and Urquidy?
(Assuming we rev up Brown gradually this year)
That's how I'd start the year and reassess at the All-Star break.
I think it's pretty clear Garica has surpassed Urquidy. The cutter is nasty and I think he's got the potential to unlock another level.Deluxe said:
Good stuff. That's who I originally thought they were but I couldn't tie out their stats. I was only looking at 2022 though.
Is LuAce our clear #4 heading into the year? Or is it close between him and Urquidy?
(Assuming we rev up Brown gradually this year)
One way is to figure out how to keep the 4 seam velo up over longer stretches. In his 6 innings vs Seattle, his avg fastball was 96.8, topping out at 98.2. The same thing happened in 2021 vs the Red Sox. Avg 4 seam was 96 and it topped out at 97.8. Over the last 2 regular seasons, his fastballs have only been 93.3 and 94.0 on avg. Or you go the opposite direction and use it less and less because a mid to low 90s heater for him isn't super effective.
One of Garcia's weaknesses is getting lefties out. He's gotten better each year he's been in the bigs. His pitch selection has moved more to the cutter and curveball vs lefties.
I don't know the answer, but I think our nerds and pitching gurus will continue to give him the tools to improve. He only had just over 200 minor league innings before getting thrown in the fire in 2020. he's 26 and should be entering his prime now.
I'm not down on Urquidy. I think he's just more of a back-end of the rotation guy. His fastball is great (Javierlike with the rise) but I think he leaves it over the middle too often/its easier to pick up and doesn't have the secondary stuff that pays as well. He had more time in the minors and got called up a year earlier than Garica so one would think he's less likely to figure something out to make the next jump.
Agreed.
I've wondered if it's possible that LuAce has another gear that could push him into fringe Framber/LMJ/Javier territory. He won his last 7 decisions last year and looked filthy dominant against the Mariners in game 3. With another offseason under his belt and entering his age 26 season, you never know.
But I'm not sure if anything in his advanced stats suggests he's a breakout candidate.
I've wondered if it's possible that LuAce has another gear that could push him into fringe Framber/LMJ/Javier territory. He won his last 7 decisions last year and looked filthy dominant against the Mariners in game 3. With another offseason under his belt and entering his age 26 season, you never know.
But I'm not sure if anything in his advanced stats suggests he's a breakout candidate.
Good stuff, thanksFarmer1906 said:
I think it's pretty clear Garica has surpassed Urquidy. The cutter is nasty and I think he's got the potential to unlock another level.
One way is to figure out how to keep the 4 seam velo up over longer stretches. In his 6 innings vs Seattle, his avg fastball was 96.8, topping out at 98.2. The same thing happened in 2021 vs the Red Sox. Avg 4 seam was 96 and it topped out at 97.8. Over the last 2 regular seasons, his fastballs have only been 93.3 and 94.0 on avg. Or you go the opposite direction and use it less and less because a mid to low 90s heater for him isn't super effective.
One of Garcia's weaknesses is getting lefties out. He's gotten better each year he's been in the bigs. His pitch selection has moved more to the cutter and curveball vs lefties.
I don't know the answer, but I think our nerds and pitching gurus will continue to give him the tools to improve. He only had just over 200 minor league innings before getting thrown in the fire in 2020. he's 26 and should be entering his prime now.
I'm not down on Urquidy. I think he's just more of a back-end of the rotation guy. His fastball is great (Javierlike with the rise) but I think he leaves it over the middle too often/its easier to pick up and doesn't have the secondary stuff that pays as well. He had more time in the minors and got called up a year earlier than Garica so one would think he's less likely to figure something out to make the next jump.
Framber has got to be the #1 just based on his workload--dude has been the anchor of the rotation for the last 3 years.
Lance would be my #2--dude's a bulldog and has good/great stuff. Durability is a concern with him, though. He's had a tough break with injuries. A healthy LMJ is absolutely a top-end-of-the-rotation guy.
Javier I'd say is my #3. He has the potential to be the staff ace. Just needs to log the innings and prove it.
Lance would be my #2--dude's a bulldog and has good/great stuff. Durability is a concern with him, though. He's had a tough break with injuries. A healthy LMJ is absolutely a top-end-of-the-rotation guy.
Javier I'd say is my #3. He has the potential to be the staff ace. Just needs to log the innings and prove it.
Am I missing something here? What's this talk of 'until Brown gets into it'?
MFer better be on the roster and in the rotation. Given some unforeseen set back in ST give him the spot and LFG. It's his time.
What else does he have to prove?
MFer better be on the roster and in the rotation. Given some unforeseen set back in ST give him the spot and LFG. It's his time.
What else does he have to prove?
I think that is sound logic, but you can probably make a case for any order. I think way too many writers and fangraph dorks are sleeping on this rotation.
It's more about full season innings management than him having something to prove. He's gonna be a big part of the rotation next year, but I don't think we want him throwing more than 150 innings.Ag_07 said:
Am I missing something here? What's this talk of 'until Brown gets into it'?
MFer better be on the roster and in the rotation. Given some unforeseen set back in ST give him the spot and LFG. It's his time.
What else does he have to prove?
I think they'll use the 6 man rotation less this year. There are more off days this season compared to 2022 thanks to the mini-lockout.Ag_07 said:
Am I missing something here? What's this talk of 'until Brown gets into it'?
MFer better be on the roster and in the rotation. Given some unforeseen set back in ST give him the spot and LFG. It's his time.
What else does he have to prove?
Brown threw ~100 innings in 2021, ~130 in 2022, and I'd guess they'll want to ramp him up to ~140-150 in the regular season. The goal is to get everyone healthy and fresh to October.
I mostly agree. Let's not jerk him around by leaving him in AAA or making him some kind of swing reliever/starter like they did Javier. I think an opportunity will present itself and he'll become a mainstay in the rotation by June.
Starting on April 14, our schedule is setup perfect for a 6 man rotation. We go 6 games on, 1 day off for 7 straight weeks.
I was thinking the opposite. The consistent days off means 5 man rotation should work. Once you get into June/July/Aug the off days get fewer and less regular. Then in Sept the weekly Thur off day returns.Deluxe said:
Starting on April 14, our schedule is setup perfect for a 6 man rotation. We go 6 games on, 1 day off for 7 straight weeks.
My discussion of it is less if he's on roster and in the rotation, but more on him ramping up innings and his stuff against consistently facing MLB hitters.Ag_07 said:
Am I missing something here? What's this talk of 'until Brown gets into it'?
MFer better be on the roster and in the rotation. Given some unforeseen set back in ST give him the spot and LFG. It's his time.
What else does he have to prove?
I was saying I would start him at #5 and as he gets into the season reevaluate.
The size difference in the two bases going into play pic.twitter.com/2VJI1Iv90Z
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 14, 2023
There's usually one or two bang/bang plays at first every game for those new bases to make a difference isn't there? I know it won't make as much of a difference as banning the shift but maybe it's going to add a few points to some batting averages?
At first I didn't think that the extra inches would make that much of a difference (that's what she said), but after seeing how many plays went to instant replay where the difference was almost literally a fingernail, it would seem like this is going to significantly increase the number of stolen bases.EastCoastAgNc said:The size difference in the two bases going into play pic.twitter.com/2VJI1Iv90Z
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 14, 2023
The 6 man rotation is the way to go, beyond any shadow of a doubt. JV might not have liked it, but his results flly i the face of his opinion of it. Brown learned from JV to pitch and locate at 95, and leave 98 in the tank when needed. I think Garcia has the ability to do the same.
EastCoastAgNc said:The size difference in the two bases going into play pic.twitter.com/2VJI1Iv90Z
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 14, 2023
What was their justification for doing this again? It just seems like a solution in search of a problem
I think it's going to make a difference in more steals, as well. Hard to say how many more, though.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35660530/mlb-plans-emphasize-enforcement-balks-changes-kick-in
This says that umpires are going to be calling more balks and will cause some pitchers to change their windups and uses Garcia's rock-a-by baby delivery as an example. But he's never done that with runners on has he? If he did a runner could steal a base on him without even running, almost.
I really wish he would stop doing it, it bugs me in a way I guess I can't explain. But will he be effected like the article says?
This says that umpires are going to be calling more balks and will cause some pitchers to change their windups and uses Garcia's rock-a-by baby delivery as an example. But he's never done that with runners on has he? If he did a runner could steal a base on him without even running, almost.
I really wish he would stop doing it, it bugs me in a way I guess I can't explain. But will he be effected like the article says?
He did it with guys on 3rd. One runner attempted a steal of home and he cut down the salsa step to throw home. Other team wanted a balk, but didn't get it. Not sure if new directives would result in a balk, but imo changing your delivery like Garcia did on this play isn't illegal.
Here's the big about Garcia
Still, it wouldn't be a balk with no one on base, but might award a ball to the batter...
2nd edit - If he does pitch out of wind up with guy on 3rd, which is common in baseball, the salsa step could be a problem
That specifically calls out the windup. I guess the new rules explicitly state he won't be able to step all over the place anymore?Quote:
In the cases of Garcia and Clevinger, their potential violations come from the windup, in which they have significant movement, with Garcia rocking his arms and taking two side-steps before throwing and Clevinger looking like he's dancing with his foot movement. Clock operators are supposed to turn off the pitch timer when a pitcher starts his delivery and, accordingly, umpires have been told that a pitcher is allowed one step to the back or side before moving toward the plate to throw.
Still, it wouldn't be a balk with no one on base, but might award a ball to the batter...
2nd edit - If he does pitch out of wind up with guy on 3rd, which is common in baseball, the salsa step could be a problem
redline248 said:
Here's the big about GarciaThat specifically calls out the windup. I guess the new rules explicitly state he won't be able to step all over the place anymore?Quote:
In the cases of Garcia and Clevinger, their potential violations come from the windup, in which they have significant movement, with Garcia rocking his arms and taking two side-steps before throwing and Clevinger looking like he's dancing with his foot movement. Clock operators are supposed to turn off the pitch timer when a pitcher starts his delivery and, accordingly, umpires have been told that a pitcher is allowed one step to the back or side before moving toward the plate to throw.
Still, it wouldn't be a balk with no one on base, but might award a ball to the batter...
2nd edit - If he does pitch out of wind up with guy on 3rd, which is common in baseball, the salsa step could be a problem
Got it, that does make sense. The article made it sound like he could be called for a balk.
I remember reading some time ago, I think it was in "Men at Work" by George Will about how perfectly baseball had its diamond laid out. Move the bases a foot or so closer or farther away, same with the pitcher's mound, and it would change the nature of the game way more than proportionally.
Has anyone read why they're making the bases larger? Is it supported to reduce injuries?
Of course, why would we want any players to have unique quriks? Making Luis stop the dance is yet another example of Rob overreaching.
If Garcia's windup and alteration of the chacha is a problem then Johnny cueto won't be able to pitch at all.
McInnis said:
Has anyone read why they're making the bases larger? Is it supported to reduce injuries?
I think it was player safety (wider target reduces # of collisions between batters/runners and fielders. I can't remember if they explicitly cited it, but I believe it was also done to increase offense. Casual and non-baseball fans always want more offense and more runners and steals will inevitably lead to more runs.
McInnis said:
Has anyone read why they're making the bases larger? Is it supported to reduce injuries?
Per CNBC
MLB is also increasing the size of bases from 15 inches square to 18 inches square. This gives infielders more distance between themselves and baserunners, in a bid to decrease collisions.
The change also decreases base-to-base distance by 4.5 inches.
Life is better with a beagle
It will be interesting to see how this impacts the internal clock most infielders have in terms of ground ball outs. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite an uptick in infield hits.The Porkchop Express said:McInnis said:
Has anyone read why they're making the bases larger? Is it supported to reduce injuries?
Per CNBC
MLB is also increasing the size of bases from 15 inches square to 18 inches square. This gives infielders more distance between themselves and baserunners, in a bid to decrease collisions.
The change also decreases base-to-base distance by 4.5 inches.
The Athletic said:
In particular, one of the game's most unique deliveries technically runs afoul of the rule. Astros right-hander Luis Garcia famously "rocks the baby," swinging his arms and taking steps forward and backward before raising his leg and moving down the mound, mechanics he favors (and that he developed on his own) purely for their repeatability. Now, he will have to adjust or face being frequently called for an automatic ball.
Would a Garcia who doesn't rock the baby be as fun to watch? Could this be an instance of MLB needlessly legislating out the very idiosyncrasies that make the game rich and textured? Sword said the league has tried to keep that question in mind. There are plenty of funky deliveries those favored by Nestor Cortes Jr. and Johnny Cueto come to mind that are legal despite their wackiness, he said. As for those that aren't?
"We just encourage funky pitchers to be funky," Sword said, "within the rules."Much well-trod territory was covered at today's new rules demonstration. But something else caught my attention.
— Zach Buchanan (@ZHBuchanan) February 15, 2023
Luis Garcia's wonderfully quirky delivery now is (and technically always was) illegal.
On MLB's renewed focus on balks and illegal pitches: https://t.co/qpazqgilF9 pic.twitter.com/dHiCR5TP7I
As someone who plays MLB the Show, I can't trade Luis Garcia away from my team fast enough.
His windup is painful and any game with him takes about 30% longer to get through.
His windup is painful and any game with him takes about 30% longer to get through.
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