Minesweeper!
***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***
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Last: 1 yr ago by Beat40
Wabs said:Twoston #astros pic.twitter.com/Tv2PNnTo7N
— D-Texan (@dtexanz) February 1, 2023
Maybe I'm missing something. That looks like the '17 Uni with a new cap. I was hoping for something unique.
Good point. He's a lock. Would be cool if they waive the five year rule for him. Not sure what precedent there is for that though.McInnis said:
There's no way Dusty doesn't make it is there? I know his credentials as a player aren't close and probably not as a manager either. But his combined career is pretty special and I doubt if there's even many sportswriters who don't like him.
Would they waive the five year rule for him to get on the ballot or would that be too much common sense?
Only been done 3 times. Gehrig, Ruth, and Clemente
I doubt if Dusty gets that respect.
I doubt if Dusty gets that respect.
The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But, it's still on the list.
Jerry Dipoto on M's goals for 2023: "We feel we got meaningfully better this offseason. … Our goal is to win the division, and we feel we realistically can."
— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) February 1, 2023
He's gotta say it. But did they get meaningfully better? Or even better at all?EastCoastAgNc said:Jerry Dipoto on M's goals for 2023: "We feel we got meaningfully better this offseason. … Our goal is to win the division, and we feel we realistically can."
— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) February 1, 2023
Added to the listEastCoastAgNc said:Jerry Dipoto on M's goals for 2023: "We feel we got meaningfully better this offseason. … Our goal is to win the division, and we feel we realistically can."
— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) February 1, 2023
Managers over 65 have to be retired for 6 months at which point they are eligible. Under 65 and you have to wait 5 years.
1. Tell Dusty to retire.
2. Elect him.
3. Do a LaRussa and unretire.
4. Profit.
1. Tell Dusty to retire.
2. Elect him.
3. Do a LaRussa and unretire.
4. Profit.
Who from this dynasty makes the HOF?
JV - Lock
Altuve - Probably
Alvarez - I think he's older than he claims. If he stays healthy 10 more years of course, but man I don't see it.
Tucker - He's too good and too young to say he doesn't have a chance, but when you look up Berkman's numbers and realize he's not in it's pretty daunting. But like Yordan, if he puts up 10 more years like he just did…
Hard no on everyone else.
So many players are great in their 20s and then fall off a cliff, so it's pretty useless to speculate on anyone that's got much less than 10 years in the league.
JV - Lock
Altuve - Probably
Alvarez - I think he's older than he claims. If he stays healthy 10 more years of course, but man I don't see it.
Tucker - He's too good and too young to say he doesn't have a chance, but when you look up Berkman's numbers and realize he's not in it's pretty daunting. But like Yordan, if he puts up 10 more years like he just did…
Hard no on everyone else.
So many players are great in their 20s and then fall off a cliff, so it's pretty useless to speculate on anyone that's got much less than 10 years in the league.
Very nice! I remember when I thought my Nolan Ryan Tuxedo card would bring me fame and fortune.
Looking at payrollsFarmer1906 said:
Free Agency Recap
Top Total $
1. Judge - 360 M
2. Truner - 300 M
3. Bogaerts - 280 M
4. Correa - 200 M
5. deGrom - 185 M
6. Swanson - 177 M
7. Rodon - 162 M
7. Nimmo - 162 M
9. Diaz - 102 M
10. Yoshida - 90 M
Top AAV
1. Verlander - 43.33 M
2. Judge - 40.00 M
3. deGrom - 37.00 M
4. Correa - 33.33 M
5. Turner - 27.27 M
6. Rodon - 27.00 M
7. Bogaerts - 25.45 M
8. Bassitt - 21.00 M
9. Nimmo - 20.25 M
10. Kershaw - 20.00 M
Team Spending
1. Yankees - 573.5 M
2. Mets - 498.2 M
3. Phillies - 399.0 M
4. Padres - 381.0 M
5. Cubs - 305.5 M
6. Rangers - 263.7 M
7. Twins - 241.0 M
8. Giants - 193.7 M
9. Red Sox - 176.2 M
10. Astros - 105.0 M
Spotrac has us at No. 11 at $172 million,
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
while Fangraphs has us at No. 10 at $195 million, and a projected luxury tax number of $210 million (which slots in at No. 13).
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll
While the positioning is similar, those numbers are pretty far apart between Fangraphs and Spotrac. Also I'm not sure why we jump $15 million for the luxury tax number since we are well under the 2023 CBT threshold of $233 million.
ETA:
Answered my own question as far as the CBT total - it also includes player benefits, minor league contracts, pre-arbitration bonus pool contribution, and estimated arbitration aav/payroll in addition to the active aav/payroll.
Regardless we should have room to operate without Crane having to break into the tax like the major markets. According to Spotrac we are just shy of $45 million under the CBT (No. 13 in the league).
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
Just so I'm clear my numbers were dollars committed to FA during this offseason.
I would learn towards using Fangraphs for payroll #s. They seem to be more detailed than spotrac. Regardless, we have money to spend if we need to take on salary. I wouldn't expect any extension would impact us much this season either. Usually the money is deferred until the years these guys would have hit FA.
I would learn towards using Fangraphs for payroll #s. They seem to be more detailed than spotrac. Regardless, we have money to spend if we need to take on salary. I wouldn't expect any extension would impact us much this season either. Usually the money is deferred until the years these guys would have hit FA.
that's why so many players -- perhaps almost all of them -- turned to steroids in the mid-to-late 90's.
and of course that's one of the tell-tale signs of a 'roider hitter. Still doing amazing things at ages 34, 35, 36, 37, etc..,
only a handful of guys can continue to hit in their 30's like they did in their 20's...without help
and of course that's one of the tell-tale signs of a 'roider hitter. Still doing amazing things at ages 34, 35, 36, 37, etc..,
only a handful of guys can continue to hit in their 30's like they did in their 20's...without help
100% right. Steroids have a residual effect too and that's why even former users like A-Rod, Beltre & Nelson Cruz were able to stay huge and keep mashing into their late 30s.W said:
that's why so many players -- perhaps almost all of them -- turned to steroids in the mid-to-late 90's.
and of course that's one of the tell-tale signs of a 'roider hitter. Still doing amazing things at ages 34, 35, 36, 37, etc..,
only a handful of guys can continue to hit in their 30's like they did in their 20's...without help
It's funny how despite advanced nutrition and weight training, without Roids body sizes and career arcs have for the most part shifted back to pre-90s norms. Because without roids no one mashes 50 dingers in their late 30s or looks like a WWE wrestler.
Not a lot changed but it didn't really need to. They have a lot of good young players and great depth in both the rotation and pen. Ultimately it will come down to health and some of those young talents taking a step forward.
Hall of Fame
JV - lock
Altuve - yes but he needs to get as close to 3,000 hits as he can or eclipse that mark
Alvarez - if he keeps at current pace and healthy, probably
Bregman - likely not. Astros HoF but not MLB
Too early on anybody else but Tucker has a shot if he puts together a 16+ year career at his current pace
JV - lock
Altuve - yes but he needs to get as close to 3,000 hits as he can or eclipse that mark
Alvarez - if he keeps at current pace and healthy, probably
Bregman - likely not. Astros HoF but not MLB
Too early on anybody else but Tucker has a shot if he puts together a 16+ year career at his current pace
Highest projected wRC+ in 2023 via ZiPS:
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) February 1, 2023
1. Yordan Alvarez 177 wRC+
2. Aaron Judge 171
3. Mike Trout 168
4. Juan Soto 164
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. 156
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 148
T-7. Freddie Freeman 147
T-7. Alex Bregman 147
9. Bryce Harper 146
10. Byron Buxton 145
Thoughts?
If you could guarantee Tucker & Yordan would have Berkman's career totals or roll the dice and see what happens, which one would you do?
Tucker yes, Yordan I roll it. I think he's got a ceiling that could rival the best of the best.Harry Dunne said:
If you could guarantee Tucker & Yordan would have Berkman's career totals or roll the dice and see what happens, which one would you do?
I guess Altuve is projected to have a big step back.bearkatag15 said:Highest projected wRC+ in 2023 via ZiPS:
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) February 1, 2023
1. Yordan Alvarez 177 wRC+
2. Aaron Judge 171
3. Mike Trout 168
4. Juan Soto 164
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. 156
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 148
T-7. Freddie Freeman 147
T-7. Alex Bregman 147
9. Bryce Harper 146
10. Byron Buxton 145
Thoughts?
Surprising answer from you!
I take Berkman's career for both. I think both of them might be more talented than he was, but longevity is a big deal… especially for Yordan, who I don't see aging well physically
I take Berkman's career for both. I think both of them might be more talented than he was, but longevity is a big deal… especially for Yordan, who I don't see aging well physically
He had a career .943 OPS. Lock that **** in.
I agree, but that's the first time I have heard you say anything about TED that was anything other than level 10 support.
We created some alternate MLB The Show 23 covers 🎮⚾️ pic.twitter.com/gb0sjLEwQT
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) February 2, 2023
— Reid Landry (@reidman32) February 1, 2023
who is this guy and why is he misspelling "below?"
Farmer1906 said:I guess Altuve is projected to have a big step back.bearkatag15 said:Highest projected wRC+ in 2023 via ZiPS:
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) February 1, 2023
1. Yordan Alvarez 177 wRC+
2. Aaron Judge 171
3. Mike Trout 168
4. Juan Soto 164
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. 156
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 148
T-7. Freddie Freeman 147
T-7. Alex Bregman 147
9. Bryce Harper 146
10. Byron Buxton 145
Thoughts?
And Tatis Jr at 156? Without help? Yeah I don't buy that.
I do. I think Tatis will be great again.
Farmer1906 said:Tucker yes, Yordan I roll it. I think he's got a ceiling that could rival the best of the best.Harry Dunne said:
If you could guarantee Tucker & Yordan would have Berkman's career totals or roll the dice and see what happens, which one would you do?
Would you take Bagwell's career totals or roll the dice with Yordan?
Farmer1906 said:
I do. I think Tatis will be great again.
I'll believe it when I see it. Until he can show it he's a busted PED user and anything he did before is now suspect.
The cynic in me just kicks in for stuff like this.
Gotta take Bags don't you?
That's a tough really good question.
That's a tough really good question.
Ag_07 said:
Gotta take Bags don't you?
That's a tough really good question.
Agreed. Harry's original question was a good one.
I'd probly lean Bags too but very tempting to roll dice with Yordan.
Thanks. I came up with it while looking at Yordan's BR page and noticing that Berkman was in his top 10 similar batters through age 25...
1. Mark Teixeira (926.1)
2. Willie McCovey (923.0) *
3. Todd Helton (920.6)
4. Paul Goldschmidt (918.6)
5. Ryan Braun (912.7)
6. Ryan Klesko (910.8)
7. Fred McGriff (909.5) *
8. Lance Berkman (905.8)
9. Justin Morneau (905.8)
10. Geoff Jenkins (904.8)
(* - Signifies Hall of Famer)
HOFers, HOVGers and a couple of guys who looked like HOFers until their late 20s and the wheels fell off.
Tucker's is a little more bizarre:
1. Pat Burrell (966.3)
2. Frank Howard (959.4)
3. Michael Conforto (953.3)
4. Wally Post (951.1)
5. Willie Stargell (950.3) *
6. Wily Mo Peña (949.4)
7. Jesse Barfield (949.0)
8. Franmil Reyes (948.8)
9. Larry Walker (948.7) *
10. George Bell (948.3)
It's just an interesting case study in how no matter how hot their start, a career can go in so many different directions after age 25.
Anyway here's to hopefully the next Willie McCovey & Larry Walker (and NOT the next Geoff Jenkins and Willy Mo Peña)!
1. Mark Teixeira (926.1)
2. Willie McCovey (923.0) *
3. Todd Helton (920.6)
4. Paul Goldschmidt (918.6)
5. Ryan Braun (912.7)
6. Ryan Klesko (910.8)
7. Fred McGriff (909.5) *
8. Lance Berkman (905.8)
9. Justin Morneau (905.8)
10. Geoff Jenkins (904.8)
(* - Signifies Hall of Famer)
HOFers, HOVGers and a couple of guys who looked like HOFers until their late 20s and the wheels fell off.
Tucker's is a little more bizarre:
1. Pat Burrell (966.3)
2. Frank Howard (959.4)
3. Michael Conforto (953.3)
4. Wally Post (951.1)
5. Willie Stargell (950.3) *
6. Wily Mo Peña (949.4)
7. Jesse Barfield (949.0)
8. Franmil Reyes (948.8)
9. Larry Walker (948.7) *
10. George Bell (948.3)
It's just an interesting case study in how no matter how hot their start, a career can go in so many different directions after age 25.
Anyway here's to hopefully the next Willie McCovey & Larry Walker (and NOT the next Geoff Jenkins and Willy Mo Peña)!
I can't imagine Yordan approaching Bagwell's numbers unless he plays a really long time. Bagwell had 6 seasons with 39+ home runs and 7 seasons with 111+ RBi. Those RBI #s aren't approachable in today's game unless there's a huge shift back to massive offense. There have only been 5 130+ RBI seasons for the whole sport since 2015. Bagwell had three of them in a five-year stretch in his prime.
Yordan has 98 HR right now. Bags finished with 449. Yordan would need to average 35 HR a year for 10 straight years to get to Baggie's total. I think that's an easily attainable number for a healthy year, but I will be shocked if Yordan plays 10 healthy seasons in a row. RBI wise, Bagwell finished with 1,529. Yordan's at 283. If he averaged 100 a year for the next 12 years he'd still be short.
Yordan has 98 HR right now. Bags finished with 449. Yordan would need to average 35 HR a year for 10 straight years to get to Baggie's total. I think that's an easily attainable number for a healthy year, but I will be shocked if Yordan plays 10 healthy seasons in a row. RBI wise, Bagwell finished with 1,529. Yordan's at 283. If he averaged 100 a year for the next 12 years he'd still be short.
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