Wabs said:

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What was the Astros offer that CC declined?

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NM, Farmer answered.

I assume the Astros knew fully about all of this ankle stuff, since it happened under their watch?

Especially for an infielder…. Carlos may just have to play the rest of his career on 4ish year deals. Honestly, besides the fact you're not guaranteed money for a decade he could go from team to team and rack up some good playoff numbers by going to contending teams each contract.

HarryRocket said:

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And correa is a perfect addition to our team. He's a rotating utility. If everyone is healthy in the playoffs he plays 2B and Altuve is DH.

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He's probably still going to end up getting more per year than anyone on our team. You can't have your highest paid player being a backup.

Even if he signed for a "bargain" (let's say 4/$120), because of the emergence of Peña it's still not worth it. You're spending a lot of money on overlapping players when you still have areas of need elsewhere.

It's not in a million years going to happen and there's definitely a number low enough that you say "eff it, let's sign him and make it work"...but there's no chance the bidding drops that low. The Twins or someone else will overpay just to get an emotional W.

Mathguy64 said:

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Their GM was in our org starting in 2011 and was an Asst GM in 2019. He knew. I think their owner got cold feet over the money.

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What a mess

Harry Dunne said:

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Do you really think they fully knew?

I find it hard to believe that they would get themselves into that mess and burn so many bridges if they knew they weren't going to honor their offer.

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Pete Putila worked his way up the Astros org from intern to Assistant GM from 2011 to 2019. He, along with maybe the Os staff, knew as well as anyone else in baseball outside of the Astros.

Now, what is there to know? Who the hell knows because it's not public info?

I know both SF and NY have been somewhat irresponsible with how they've handled things based on the info we have at the moment. You shouldn't agree to these terms, comment about it (NYM), schedule a presser (SF), etc while having knowledge of what the injury was and how it was repaired, and then completely back away. I would assume whatever is up with the ankle was always a possibility based on the injury/repair.

Let me say know a few more times.

If you look at the last 3 years, Correa's wRC+ is 130. He's 30% above the avg player and ranked 26th in baseball in this window. +/- 2 he's right there with Austin Riley, Will Smith, Rafael Devers, Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Olson, & Kyle Schwarber. He's ahead of some big names like Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, Bryan Reynolds, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, JT Realmuto. If you shrink the window from 3 to 2 years, he jumps to 19th. I think it's safe to say he's more than just an "avg slugger" if you ignore position.

Speaking of Justin Turner...

Off to the Red Sox on a 1 year/$8.3mm deal

No one looks at baseball like you are.

Ag_07 said:

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Speaking of Justin Turner...

Off to the Red Sox on a 1 year/$8.3mm deal

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It's a tricky contract. If I am reading it (comments on Twitter) correctly, year 2 is a player option for 13.4 M with a 6.7 M opt-out. Basically, it is either a 1-year 15 M or a 2-year 21.7 M deal with incentives for another 1 M based on PA. If he good he'll leave after year 1 and 15 M to sign a bigger deal. If he's not then he can opt-in and still get another year over 10 M. Not too shabby for the 38-year-old.

NM.

Farmer1906 said:

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No one looks at baseball like you are.

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No one?

Harry Dunne said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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JDUB08AG said:

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I will root for Yuli more than any other former Astro if he lands somewhere else. I absolutely love that guy and he has quietly become one of my favorite Astros of all time.

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If Yuli the greatest non All Star in Astros history?

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Richard Hidalgo.

RIDICULOUS that he didn't make the team with seasons of 5.7 & 6.3 WAR. His 2000 season is probably among the best ever non-all star seasons.

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Not quite as good, but JR Richards only made All Star once, and in his non-all star seasons he had WAR of
1976 - 3.6
1977 - 4.9
1978 - 4.1
1979 - 5.6

The season he did make All Star
1980 - 2.8

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaj.01.shtml

It took me a bit a year or two ago looking at historical seasons to realize that All Star means how well you did in your first semester, not how well you did on the year/season, which renders it somewhat meaningless as measure of how well a player played in a given season.

I couldn't think of the right word, so I went with slimy. I still don't think it's the right word.

I get your analogy and don't disagree with it overall.

The giants were willing to pay Judge 9 years at 31 when most players start breaking down as they get closer to 40. The Mets paid JV 2 years at 41 one year removed from TJ and after coming off a year in a 6-man rotation with no history how a guy that hold will fair after TJ at his age. Do I think there is something with Carlos? Probably so. However, I think these teams feel they have some sort of actual basis for trying to negotiate Carlos down where they couldn't with those other guys because there isn't really a leg to stand on.

I agree with Farmer that SF knew Carlos' history and the owner got shy about the money. I think the Mets are trying to take advantage of a situation to pay less, which makes sense.

These reports about the Mets being frustrated with Carlos and Boras give me no sympathy for them based on what I think above.

So the word is business I suppose, but I do think the Mets are being somewhat slimy. I believe they think they can get Carlos to agree to a lesser deal. Echo the reports out to San Fran, which I think was a cover for the cold feet, to solidify that narrative and out leverage Carlos. They know Carlos will get much less if he walks away. It's why I don't think the Mets have cut ties with Carlos yet - their moves have given them all the cards.

Cohen's hedge fund was essentially built off insider trading and he made his people give him plausible deniability so he couldn't get caught. I firmly believe Cohen is taking complete advantage of the situation.

And hey, I guess that's business. I would still be pissed if I was Carlos. Couldn't have worked out worse for him in comparison to his peers.

Still, he should accept a 5-6 year high AAV deal, ball out and prove everyone wrong.

Farmer1906 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Do you really think they fully knew?

I find it hard to believe that they would get themselves into that mess and burn so many bridges if they knew they weren't going to honor their offer.

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Pete Putila worked his way up the Astros org from intern to Assistant GM from 2011 to 2019. He, along with maybe the Os staff, knew as well as anyone else in baseball outside of the Astros.

Now, what is there to know? Who the hell knows because it's not public info?

I know both SF and NY have been somewhat irresponsible with how they've handled things based on the info we have at the moment. You shouldn't agree to these terms, comment about it (NYM), schedule a presser (SF), etc while having knowledge of what the injury was and how it was repaired, and then completely back away. I would assume whatever is up with the ankle was always a possibility based on the injury/repair.

Let me say know a few more times.

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This is how I feel. I think SF just got cold feet and backed out. I think the Mets are essentially being a little slimy or underhanded. They are taking full advantage of the situation to out leverage Carlos. Maybe it's just business, but it doesn't have a good feel to it.

Feels like those companies coming in slashing prices to run small businesses out of business.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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No one looks at baseball like you are.

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No one?

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I know he's far, far more than average when he plays, but I don't even think I'd even call a guy who hasn't hit 30 home runs in 8 seasons a "slugger" at all.

Correa averages more home runs per 162 games (28) than he has ever hit in a season.

That's pretty funny, right? Try to find another full-time player 8 years into his career that is true of. It's hard!

Yordan Alvarez averages 43 per 162 games. 37 is his best season, so far.

Bobcat-Ag said:

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Yordan Alvarez averages 43 per 162 games. 37 is his best season, so far.

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TED is 30 per 162 and best of 30. He hit 30 in 21 and 30 in 22.

Yes I found both those guys and that's why I said 8 years into his career.

It's easy to have averages higher than your totals when you've only played a couple of full seasons. Which is also the point I'm trying to make with Carlos:

It's a sign of good things to come for Ted & Yordan. They are going to put up numbers bigger than their averages eventually when they put together their talent + experience + a full season of baseball.

I guess the same can be said of Carlos, but he's getting a little long in the tooth to still be saying that about him and IMO he isn't a much better hitter today than he was his first year in the league.

Farmer1906 said:

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Bobcat-Ag said:

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Yordan Alvarez averages 43 per 162 games. 37 is his best season, so far.

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TED is 30 per 162 and best of 30. He hit 30 in 21 and 30 in 22.

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I'd take that + GG RF all decade long, but he's just scratching the surface.

What am I missing? Without looking I would have bet good money that most players 162 game projected total would always be higher than their individual actual season averages. No one is playing 162 and most players not Judge don't have extreme aberrations in HR totals.

Mathguy64 said:

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What am I missing? Without looking I would have bet good money that most players 162 game projected total would always be higher than their individual actual season averages. No one is playing 162 and most players not Judge don't have extreme aberrations in HR totals.

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We're talking about career highs, not season averages.

Most players have a "peak". If you look at any retired player (or active player by the time they have reached their prime), they are going to have a couple of seasons where they exceed their 162 game average (which includes their early days when they were just figuring it out + their twilight years if they are retired).

Try it. Even Trout who came into the league hitting like Mickey Mantle. Even Joey Gallo!

Harry Dunne said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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What am I missing? Without looking I would have bet good money that most players 162 game projected total would always be higher than their individual actual season averages. No one is playing 162 and most players not Judge don't have extreme aberrations in HR totals.

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We're talking about career highs, not season averages.

Most players have a "peak". If you look at any retired player (or active player by the time they have reached their prime), they are going to have a couple of seasons where they exceed their 162 game average (which includes their early days when they were just figuring it out + their twilight years if they are retired).

Try it. Even Trout who came into the league hitting like Mickey Mantle. Even Joey Gallo!

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I think it speaks to how he's been consistently pretty good and consistently played shorter seasons. Sure, he's had injuries galore, but 1/4 of his career in a shortened 2020 & June rookie call-up.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Are you riding with these WAY too early predictions 🤔 pic.twitter.com/8BLzLJT1nm

— The Game Day MLB (@TheGameDayMLB) January 6, 2023

Are we really doing this again? Mariners?

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Picking the Rangers to finish third is like picking any other team to go 150-12.