The Dodgers have until tomorrow to decide to keep or cut Trevor Bauer after an arbitrator reduced his suspension to 194 games. The hearing over his punishment was confidential, but hours before the reduction we pubbed an article full of new details...🧵 https://t.co/qNDVQSs7xU

— Gus Garcia-Roberts (@ggarciaroberts) January 5, 2023

I'm not gonna post the whole thread because it's really long and I don't want to pollute the thread, so go read it for yourself. This guy is a POS and if anyone signs him, that franchise should be shut down.

Farmer1906 said:

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The way the Astros and most(?) other teams I have seen give extensions if you basically set the arbitration years somewhat close to what those #s would be then add on years at a high number.

I think its safe to say any extensions will keep to this "rule". It is more about how many add-on years and how much the AAV is for those years.

Framber is a curious case. He can basically say, I'm never seeing FA when I'm at the top of my game. Pay me for the rest of my prime and sweeten the deal a little with a signing bonus or divide my arb money evenly like Bregman. Or he say, no way. now how. Hitting the market at 32 is my one shot to get paid bigly. I wouldn't blame him either way. If he's comfortable here and Crane is willing, I would extend him 3 years without batting an eye. I think age 32, 33, and 34 Framber is still going to be very good.

I agree with what you said about Javier's variance. He may be a Cy Young winner or he may end up a 2/3 type and be as valuable as the Chris Bassits of the world. I think the more likely scenario for him if he gets an extension is just 1, maybe 2 add-on years. That way he can lock in money now and hit the market in his prime.

I really hope we find a way to get at least 1 done. Both would be ideal. Outside of Brown, I don't love our pitching prospects. I probably said the same in 2020 when we have no idea who Garvia or Javier were and we were not sold on Framber & Urquidy yet. I think it's more likely the cupboard is empty than we strike gold with 4 hidden gems again.

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To your first point, I agree that's how the contracts are likely to be structured. I was thinking about it more from a lux tax/cap standpoint... but looking at it that way negates some of the player incentive to sign up today. Given that we're guiding a decent amount under the tax atm, I could see us ponying up a bit more in 2023 in exchange for discount later. Directionally you're right though.

It's almost hard to analyze the Framber/Javier extensions because there's so many variables. I think they will require some "give" on behalf of the two pitchers. Neither HAS to do an extension. Both could easily bet on themselves and win. Crane isn't going to pay out their upside cases today. So how much of their future ceilings are they willing to cash in today for security? Locking in something in the high eight figures feels about right.

To your last point, I sometimes catch myself thinking, "damn, I'm not sure I like how our staff is shaping up in 2027". Then I'm like, "damn, I'm so spoiled if my biggest concern is our 2027 rotation" haha.

With that said, it's a fair concern all jokes aside. We have two pitching prospects in our current top 10. Brown who's already arrived and Whitley who is a total wild card. Beyond that, we have a bunch of guys in the 11-25 range that I know virtually nothing about.

For that reason alone, it would be nice to get at least one of Javier/Framber locked in long term and maybe Abreu or Urquidy too. But I also think we've got a plan. We've rebuilt the pitching staff on the fly before and (hopefully) we can do it again. We've also been hyper-focused on drafting position players the last few years. If we were super concerned about the pitching long term, we'd probably allocate more draft capital toward pitchers.

I bet we've got 2-3 nasty dudes no one has heard of developing in the lower level minors right now that will emerge by 2025-26.

Deluxe said:

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For that reason alone, it would be nice to get at least one of Javier/Framber locked in long term and maybe Abreu or Urquidy too. But I also think we've got a plan. We've rebuilt the pitching staff on the fly before and (hopefully) we can do it again. We've also been hyper-focused on drafting position players the last few years. If we were super concerned about the pitching long term, we'd probably allocate more draft capital toward pitchers.

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I wouldn't be shocked to see us look at more pitchers in the next draft. We identified OF as a weakness before the last draft and ended up with Gilbert & Melton with our first 2 picks and 2 more OFers in rounds 10 and 11.

Looking at it now, we had a bit of a run on pitchers too. 2ndC (Taylor), 3rd (Knorr), 4th (Dombroski), 5th (DeVos), 7th (BlueBaugh), 8th (Guilfoil), 9th (Gillis).

Of the top 10
64% Pitchers
27% Outfielders
9% Catcher

We do it again next year and we'll have some volume to see who shakes out for 2027. Kind of like how the Angels did an entire draft of arms last year.

Quote:

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To your last point, I sometimes catch myself thinking, "damn, I'm not sure I like how our staff is shaping up in 2027". Then I'm like, "damn, I'm so spoiled if my biggest concern is our 2027 rotation" haha.

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Gotta keep the window wide ass open. The dynasty that never ends.

Farmer1906 said:

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I wouldn't be shocked to see us look at more pitchers in the next draft. We identified OF as a weakness before the last draft and ended up with Gilbert & Melton with our first 2 picks and 2 more OFers in rounds 10 and 11.

Looking at it now, we had a bit of a run on pitchers too. 2ndC (Taylor), 3rd (Knorr), 4th (Dombroski), 5th (DeVos), 7th (BlueBaugh), 8th (Guilfoil), 9th (Gillis).

Of the top 10
64% Pitchers
27% Outfielders
9% Catcher

We do it again next year and we'll have some volume to see who shakes out for 2027. Kind of like how the Angels did an entire draft of arms last year.

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Yea. After I wrote that, I went and looked it up and you're right. While the majority of our headlines picks have been position players, we've devoted plenty of round 3-10 picks to pitchers over the past few years. Generally speaking, we shouldn't really be targeting a specific position in rounds 1-2 anyway. Best player available. If there's a tie, then go with the position of need.

Hopefully we've got a nice stash of $10k signing bonus Dominicans too.

I've been very bored at work today

Ag_07 said:

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I just don't bother with dissecting stuff like that because Farmer will just come right behind me and tell me why it's all wrong and completely off base.

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But isn't it good to have someone tell you when you're wrong so you can be right going forward?

Check out the rest of the Woodforest National Bank #TrophyTour stops at https://t.co/le2ygoJFQo. pic.twitter.com/YuwcAUnYqc

— Houston Astros (@astros) January 5, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

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Keep in mind Fisher had elite speed. I want to say he was ~ 30 f/s on this particular play.

He's almost 1/3 of the way down when the ball is being released.


He beats the ball by a mile. Even a perfect throw may not have been good enough.

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I can't find average OF velo for '17 but in 2022 it's 87.4mph and I wouldn't assume much deviation over those years. That's 128fps and a throw that only had to go about 170-180'. Even with Fisher's speed at 30fps he's maybe 20' off 3rd there when the ball is released. At 128fps it would take 1.41 seconds to get the throw home while it would take Fisher 2.67 seconds at 30fps to make it the rest of the way home. That full second would have him out by a mile. Even if Fisher were only 60 feet from home then that's 2 seconds, a closer play but still out by a good by a step or two.

Farmer1906 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Keep in mind Fisher had elite speed. I want to say he was ~ 30 f/s on this particular play.

He's almost 1/3 of the way down when the ball is being released.


He beats the ball by a mile. Even a perfect throw may not have been good enough.

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I can't find average OF velo for '17 but in 2022 it's 87.4mph and I wouldn't assume much deviation over those years. That's 128fps and a throw that only had to go about 170-180'. Even with Fisher's speed at 30fps he's maybe 20' off 3rd there when the ball is released. At 128fps it would take 1.41 seconds to get the throw home while it would take Fisher 2.67 seconds at 30fps to make it the rest of the way home. That full second would have him out by a mile. Even if Fisher were only 60 feet from home then that's 2 seconds, a closer play but still out by a good by a step or two.

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This assumes the ball travels 87 MPH the entire time.

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Just as much as 30fps of running speed because there's a definite drop when rounding the corner.

The play may not have been close but for a MLB outfielder to make a throw that was MAYBE 70-75mph from short left with significant arc on the throw when the game is on the line is pitiful. My 12-year old has an OF velocity of 70. It was every bit as bad, as Barry Bonds failing to throw out noted speedster (#sarcasm) Sid Bream shortstop in the '92 NLCS.

We agree the throw sucked.

And now some bad(?) potential news.

There is a certain speculation that the #RedSox have signed former Astros’ WS champ 1B Yuli Gurriel

This rumor hasn’t been confirmed nor denied, but as far as speculation goes it makes sense

RH backup 1B to compliment Casas plus a Dalbec replacement (trade inbound?)

Pic via IG pic.twitter.com/uttaqoFMzs

— GG (@ggeiss24) January 5, 2023

🚨 UPON FURTHER EVALUATION:

The deal is still unconfirmed, but I’m getting the sense that the #RedSox and Yuli Gurriel are in agreement with a contract.

The person who originally reported the signing (via IG) is followed back by Yuli himself.

Strap in Sox Nation 👀 pic.twitter.com/Mikn7HbCFt

— GG (@ggeiss24) January 5, 2023

TarponChaser said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Keep in mind Fisher had elite speed. I want to say he was ~ 30 f/s on this particular play.

He's almost 1/3 of the way down when the ball is being released.


He beats the ball by a mile. Even a perfect throw may not have been good enough.

---

I can't find average OF velo for '17 but in 2022 it's 87.4mph and I wouldn't assume much deviation over those years. That's 128fps and a throw that only had to go about 170-180'. Even with Fisher's speed at 30fps he's maybe 20' off 3rd there when the ball is released. At 128fps it would take 1.41 seconds to get the throw home while it would take Fisher 2.67 seconds at 30fps to make it the rest of the way home. That full second would have him out by a mile. Even if Fisher were only 60 feet from home then that's 2 seconds, a closer play but still out by a good by a step or two.

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This assumes the ball travels 87 MPH the entire time.

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Just as much as 30fps of running speed because there's a definite drop when rounding the corner.

The play may not have been close but for a MLB outfielder to make a throw that was MAYBE 70-75mph from short left with significant arc on the throw when the game is on the line is pitiful. My 12-year old has an OF velocity of 70. It was every bit as bad, as Barry Bonds failing to throw out noted speedster (#sarcasm) Sid Bream shortstop in the '92 NLCS.

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The Braves technically owed the Astros a share of the 1992 NL Pennant. The only reason Francisco Cabrera was on the Braves to deliver the game winning hit against Pittsburgh is because Ken Caminiti broke Greg Olsen's leg in the last series of the regular season while sliding into home plate. Cabrera was his replacement on the playoff roster.

Farmer1906 said:

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We agree the throw sucked.

And now some bad(?) potential news.

There is a certain speculation that the #RedSox have signed former Astros’ WS champ 1B Yuli Gurriel

This rumor hasn’t been confirmed nor denied, but as far as speculation goes it makes sense

RH backup 1B to compliment Casas plus a Dalbec replacement (trade inbound?)

Pic via IG pic.twitter.com/uttaqoFMzs

— GG (@ggeiss24) January 5, 2023

🚨 UPON FURTHER EVALUATION:

The deal is still unconfirmed, but I’m getting the sense that the #RedSox and Yuli Gurriel are in agreement with a contract.

The person who originally reported the signing (via IG) is followed back by Yuli himself.

Strap in Sox Nation 👀 pic.twitter.com/Mikn7HbCFt

— GG (@ggeiss24) January 5, 2023

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Dude has 350 followers. Meh

1100 for the guy actually saying it. It's obviously Not a major outlet.

As the World Turns…

Updated Correa story: Carlos’ camp in contact with at least one other team for the first time in 2 weeks as negotiations with the Mets regarding contract language are a bit stickyhttps://t.co/jhho6HaY2k

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 6, 2023

Source: The Minnesota Twins have been a team monitoring Correa’s market in recent weeks. Important to note that just like the Mets and Giants, if they were to come to an agreement with Correa, they’d also want an extensive look done into his flagged lower-leg injury. https://t.co/GRojaiyEua

— Michael Marino (@MarinoMLB) January 6, 2023

JDUB08AG said:

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I will root for Yuli more than any other former Astro if he lands somewhere else. I absolutely love that guy and he has quietly become one of my favorite Astros of all time.

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If Yuli the greatest non All Star in Astros history?

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Check out the rest of the Woodforest National Bank #TrophyTour stops at https://t.co/le2ygoJFQo. pic.twitter.com/YuwcAUnYqc

— Houston Astros (@astros) January 5, 2023

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Advertises over 100 stops, lists 11

I know I missed a few, since this is a tough one to look up, but here is my all-time Astro non-ASG team starting lineup:

C Turd Ferguson 77
1b Bagwell 00
2b Biggio 99
3b Breggy 22
SS Correa 16
OF Hidalgo 00
OF Steve Finley 92
OF Jim Wynn 69
SP JR Richard 79

Joe

I was holding out hope they'd sign Yuli. This really makes me sad.