I agree with you about our local crew. Sorry, I should mentioned that before I went off on my anti-MLB and media rant.
***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***
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Last: 1 yr ago by Beat40
now those are two I'd not be mad about not doing games anymore. Eschenfelder is brutalWilly Wonka said:What's the matter? You don't want 162 games of Kevin Eschenfelder and Mike Stanton?n_touch said:Blum has been with the team for over 10 years now. He is a fan favorite and I do not see him or Kalas going anywhere. I *hope* that this is them working on a longer than a one year deal that they got last year.WES2006AG said:
https://www.si.com/mlb/astros/news/houston-astros-broadcasters-todd-kalas-geoff-blum-unsigned-next-season
No way the Astros screw this up right?
He had a down year, by his standards, but I'm looking at the big picture. JV had a very mediocre 2-year stretch towards the end of his DET tenure. And I'm not talking about #9 in CYA - JV was barely above replacement level there for a full season. It happens.Deluxe said:
Hard to believe but he was the 34th ranked SP by fWAR last year. Behind Javier who pitched 50 fewer innings. He's still very good but not an ace on a team that's trying to win the WS.
I define "ace" not only as a guy with the goods, but also someone that consistently goes out there and eats innings. We've got a lot of talent, but if we take the stros goggles off and look at the numbers:
- Framber has been an ace for all of one season.
- Javier broke out in a big way but he has 44 total career regular season starts
- Lance has ace stuff, but he's never made 30 starts in a season and has gone over 130 IP just once in 7 MLB seasons (8 if you count the one he sat).
Cole has made 30 or more starts in 6 of his last 7 full seasons and made all of his starts the covid year. He's the definition of a horse. Also again:
- #9 in CYA last year.
- Finished 2, 4, 2 and 5 the prior 4 years.
Our ace Framber is 28 and had a great year, but Cole had an even better year at 28 where he led the league in ERA and Ks and at that point had already finished in the top 5 in CYA votes 3 times.
I wouldn't trade any of our top guys for Cole (not even and maybe especially Hunter B), especially when you consider salaries and I wouldn't trade their futures for his, but let's be real: Cole has been an absolute monster prior to last season.
I don't think we disagree on much except our subjective classifications of what level of ace he is.
Even though he'll likely get the ball on opening day, he's arguably not the ace of his current staff. Rodon had a much much better 2022 season.
Definitely agree that he's a workhorse. Very reliable for 200+ innings, which is valuable in today's game.
Not sure JV's down years in Detroit are the best comparison for Cole last year. We totally remade him when he came to Houston. Can Cole remake himself with the Yankees? I guess we'll see.
I suppose part of my bias against Cole as a top tier ace goes back to g3 of the ALCS last year. He went up against our #4 starter and no one who's been paying attention should have been surprised that Javier outdueled him. That shouldn't happen to an ace on a WS aspiring staff.
Just my two cents. Maybe he'll bounce back this year.
Even though he'll likely get the ball on opening day, he's arguably not the ace of his current staff. Rodon had a much much better 2022 season.
Definitely agree that he's a workhorse. Very reliable for 200+ innings, which is valuable in today's game.
Not sure JV's down years in Detroit are the best comparison for Cole last year. We totally remade him when he came to Houston. Can Cole remake himself with the Yankees? I guess we'll see.
I suppose part of my bias against Cole as a top tier ace goes back to g3 of the ALCS last year. He went up against our #4 starter and no one who's been paying attention should have been surprised that Javier outdueled him. That shouldn't happen to an ace on a WS aspiring staff.
Just my two cents. Maybe he'll bounce back this year.
JV got out pitched on the reg in the postseason.
So by your thinking he's wasn't our ace.
So by your thinking he's wasn't our ace.
No. You're missing the point.Ag_07 said:
JV got out pitched on the reg in the postseason.
So by your thinking he's wasn't our ace.
Any pitcher can outduel any other pitcher any given game. Upsets happen in baseball. The difference is that Javier outdueling Cole was the probable outcome that game. That's what was supposed to happen that day in the Bronx... and it did.
I agree - a lot of the opinions about Cole on here are based on what we have seen against us. But I think it's a mistake to judge on a small sample size. If you only watch the WS you'd think JV and Dave Mlicki are the same guy.
Another piece of data, and obviously fangraphs projections are just an educated guess, but they are a lot less biased than we are. They aren't going to be right, but they are as reasonable of an expectation as there is:
2023 Projections:
Framber: 31 GS, 196 IP, 3.7 WAR
Javier: 29 GS, 168 IP, 3.4 WAR
Lance: 28 GS, 148 IP, 1.9 WAR
Luis: 28 GS, 157 IP, 1.9 WAR
Cole: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.5 WAR
Another piece of data, and obviously fangraphs projections are just an educated guess, but they are a lot less biased than we are. They aren't going to be right, but they are as reasonable of an expectation as there is:
2023 Projections:
Framber: 31 GS, 196 IP, 3.7 WAR
Javier: 29 GS, 168 IP, 3.4 WAR
Lance: 28 GS, 148 IP, 1.9 WAR
Luis: 28 GS, 157 IP, 1.9 WAR
Cole: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.5 WAR
If Javier had Framber's innings total his WAR would approach Cole's I think. The difference in Framber and Cole is more or less K rate and HR rate.
My opinion of Cole is based on the entirety of his 2022 production
Javier's WAR was better than Cole's last year pitching 50 fewer innings. If you normalize, Javier had a much higher WAR than Cole. Framber did too obviously.linkdude said:
If Javier had Framber's innings total his WAR would approach Cole's I think. The difference in Framber and Cole is more or less K rate and HR rate.
If you're going to totally discount 2018-2021 and think that 2022 (which wasn't terrible btw) is just "who he is now" for a relatively young pitcher, there's not much else I can say other than the dreaded "agree to disagree".Deluxe said:
My opinion of Cole is based on the entirety of his 2022 production
BTW JV did learn some new tricks when he got here, but he was the CYA runner up and got MVP votes and led all of baseball in pitching WAR at 7.4 the season before that, so let's not pretend like we rescued him from the trash heap.
If Javier can go out there and make as many starts as Cole has, he's going to be the next Pedro Martinez and go into Cooperstown wearing the H.Deluxe said:Javier's WAR was better than Cole's last year pitching 50 fewer innings. If you normalize, Javier had a much higher WAR than Cole. Framber did too obviously.linkdude said:
If Javier had Framber's innings total his WAR would approach Cole's I think. The difference in Framber and Cole is more or less K rate and HR rate.
I hope that's exactly what happens, but people seriously undervalue the ability/talent of staying healthy. Like the SF Giants.
He's going to be 33 next year and his production has mostly declined since he got to NY. Maybe he can turn it around next year. We'll see.Harry Dunne said:If you're going to totally discount 2018-2021 and think that 2022 (which wasn't terrible btw) is just "who he is now" for a relatively young pitcher, there's not much else I can say other than the dreaded "agree to disagree".Deluxe said:
My opinion of Cole is based on the entirety of his 2022 production
BTW JV did learn some new tricks when he got here, but he was the CYA runner up and got MVP votes and led all of baseball in pitching WAR at 7.4 the season before that, so let's not pretend like we rescued him from the trash heap.
I agree that he's a workhorse and there's certainly value in that.Harry Dunne said:
If Javier can go out there and make as many starts as Cole has, he's going to be the next Pedro Martinez and go into Cooperstown wearing the H.
I hope that's exactly what happens, but people seriously undervalue the ability/talent of staying healthy. Like the SF Giants.
Deluxe said:"The best left-handed starter in the league."@JimBowdenGM says it is time for @Yankees fans to get excited.#RepBX pic.twitter.com/d0rqzw650L
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) December 16, 2022
Bookmarked for next year's offseason OP
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
This is the cycle for the Yankees every year. Make a big signing in the off season, have a great regular season, choke in the post season. Wash, rinse, repeat!Deluxe said:
Remember 2020? The Yankees added Cole. We lost Cole, Miley, Verlander, and most of our bullpen. Greinke was a shell of his old self. We basically spent the entire season holding pitcher tryouts. And we still made it further than them in the playoffs.
LOL. Every offseason is the "time for Yankees fans to get excited".
Enjoy this highlight video of the Astros dominating the Yankees shiny new rotation. Also, it’s all playoff footage :) pic.twitter.com/275772Qqwh
— Space City Sports (@LiveSCS) December 16, 2022
Deluxe said:He's going to be 33 next year and his production has mostly declined since he got to NY. Maybe he can turn it around next year. We'll see.Harry Dunne said:If you're going to totally discount 2018-2021 and think that 2022 (which wasn't terrible btw) is just "who he is now" for a relatively young pitcher, there's not much else I can say other than the dreaded "agree to disagree".Deluxe said:
My opinion of Cole is based on the entirety of his 2022 production
BTW JV did learn some new tricks when he got here, but he was the CYA runner up and got MVP votes and led all of baseball in pitching WAR at 7.4 the season before that, so let's not pretend like we rescued him from the trash heap.
Cole's biggest issues have shears been he Carrie's his emotions on his sleeves too often. Always feels like the type of guy that's always looking to blame others when **** goes South.
Most of the greats over the years on the mound, for the most part, show an even keel off emotions through the inevitable highs and lows of pitching long term.
GD I love this team!
Just dagger after dagger after dagger leaving pitchers waddling off the mound pouting with their heads hung.
Just dagger after dagger after dagger leaving pitchers waddling off the mound pouting with their heads hung.
We're still the favorites going into 2023. So much the "best rotation eva" crowd.
Yes, his problem is that he's a whiny bish. We knew that the second he did the whole "representative of himself" garbage.Nino Brown said:Deluxe said:He's going to be 33 next year and his production has mostly declined since he got to NY. Maybe he can turn it around next year. We'll see.Harry Dunne said:If you're going to totally discount 2018-2021 and think that 2022 (which wasn't terrible btw) is just "who he is now" for a relatively young pitcher, there's not much else I can say other than the dreaded "agree to disagree".Deluxe said:
My opinion of Cole is based on the entirety of his 2022 production
BTW JV did learn some new tricks when he got here, but he was the CYA runner up and got MVP votes and led all of baseball in pitching WAR at 7.4 the season before that, so let's not pretend like we rescued him from the trash heap.
Cole's biggest issues have shears been he Carrie's his emotions on his sleeves too often. Always feels like the type of guy that's always looking to blame others when **** goes South.
Most of the greats over the years on the mound, for the most part, show an even keel off emotions through the inevitable highs and lows of pitching long term.
Cole is a whiner and finger-pointer, but that doesn't make him not great. Whiny vazzies that were great in crunch time: Clemens, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, Chris Carpenter...I could go on.
Yall are over-complicating things.
Cole is great, but he's taken a step back. His fastball was arguably the best pitch in baseball from '18-'19. It's still good, but it's not nearly like it was. His 4-seam wOBA in Houston was around .270 and in NY it's north of .300. He's incorporated more of a change-up to keep people off his fastball, but it didn't work as he wanted.
He still gets Ks and whiffs, doesn't walk a bunch of guys, high velo, high spin, etc. but when he makes mistakes or gets timed up, he's getting hit a lot harder/more frequently than he did in Houston.
His ERA and FIP have reached jumped by around 0.60 from HOU to NY even though league ERA/FIP have dropped by 0.18.
Who's up for a quick, guess the pitcher?
2020-2022 ERA
3.05 Framber Valez
3.05 Cristian Javier
3.16 Lance McCullers
3.28 Gerrit Cole
Cole is great, but he's taken a step back. His fastball was arguably the best pitch in baseball from '18-'19. It's still good, but it's not nearly like it was. His 4-seam wOBA in Houston was around .270 and in NY it's north of .300. He's incorporated more of a change-up to keep people off his fastball, but it didn't work as he wanted.
He still gets Ks and whiffs, doesn't walk a bunch of guys, high velo, high spin, etc. but when he makes mistakes or gets timed up, he's getting hit a lot harder/more frequently than he did in Houston.
His ERA and FIP have reached jumped by around 0.60 from HOU to NY even though league ERA/FIP have dropped by 0.18.
Who's up for a quick, guess the pitcher?
2020-2022 ERA
3.05 Framber Valez
3.05 Cristian Javier
3.16 Lance McCullers
3.28 Gerrit Cole
3.05 Framber
3.05 Javier
3.16 McCullers
3.28 Cole
I cheated. I quoted your post to see how you did the cool redact.
3.05 Javier
3.16 McCullers
3.28 Cole
I cheated. I quoted your post to see how you did the cool redact.
I hate to make this bet because I don't want to be rooting for Cole, but unless he's injured I think I'd be in pretty good shape to win it. I would be willing to bet that he has a better season in 2023 than any of our starters.
We could let Farmer come up with what he thinks is the most objective criteria for what determines "better". It would have to encompass volume as well, not just quality.
We could let Farmer come up with what he thinks is the most objective criteria for what determines "better". It would have to encompass volume as well, not just quality.
Aside from any semantical disagreement on Cole being a true ace (top 15 SP) vs low tier ace (15-30 range SP), this is interesting to analyze.Harry Dunne said:
2023 Projections:
Framber: 31 GS, 196 IP, 3.7 WAR
Javier: 29 GS, 168 IP, 3.4 WAR
Lance: 28 GS, 148 IP, 1.9 WAR
Luis: 28 GS, 157 IP, 1.9 WAR
They're saying Framber is going to take a decent size step back in 2023, Javier will be worse normalized for innings, and that LMJ will be roughly half as good as he was in 2021. Assuming health, I think you could make alot of $$ betting those overs. LuAce seems about right.
The LMJ one is most perplexing. If they want to risk adjust him for innings, that's cool. But to say he's going to throw 150 innings and not even be a 2 WAR pitcher seems overly bearish.
It's an interesting thought exercise to compare Cole to Framber, Javier and LMJ... taking into account 2023 only and not factoring in value relative to salary. Simply, who would you rather have in 2023?Harry Dunne said:
I hate to make this bet because I don't want to be rooting for Cole, but unless he's injured I think I'd be in pretty good shape to win it. I would be willing to bet that he has a better season in 2023 than any of our starters.
We could let Farmer come up with what he thinks is the most objective criteria for what determines "better". It would have to encompass volume as well, not just quality.
I'd be willing to take your bet that Framber has a better 2023 than Cole.
Javier vs Cole kinda depends on what you like. I'd bet on Cole to pitch more innings 100%. Projecting their regular season WAR is tough. Not sure I have a passionate opinion either way. But in a big October game, give me Javier everyday of the week.
I'd take Cole over LMJ though.
WAR is the only "advanced metric" that properly accounts for innings, but I personally do not care for it. Too many times pitcher's WAR does not pass the smell test. Last year Nola's WAR was 1.9 higher than Frambers. On what planet does that make sense?
xERA is probably your best bet with a stipulation you must meet X number of innings. You can weight it by IP. Create your own metric.
xERA is probably your best bet with a stipulation you must meet X number of innings. You can weight it by IP. Create your own metric.
Deluxe said:
I'd take Cole over LMJ though.
Lance gunna make you eat those words.
I'd love to see itFarmer1906 said:Lance gunna make you eat those words.Deluxe said:
I'd take Cole over LMJ though.
Farmer1906 said:
WAR is the only "advanced metric" that properly accounts for innings, but I personally do not care for it. Too many times pitcher's WAR does not pass the smell test. Last year Nola's WAR was 1.9 higher than Frambers. On what planet does that make sense?
xERA is probably your best bet with a stipulation you must meet X number of innings. You can weight it by IP. Create your own metric.
I think the fact Framber seems to get into a lot of jams (and gets himself out of them) might hurt him in some metrics. That's all I can think of.
One thing we're not accounting for is MLB screwing **** up. The shift is most likely going to hurt groundball pitchers (Framber & McCullers) and if they jack with the baseball again it could hurt flyball pitchers (Javier & Cole).
They are so focused that their starting rotation got better, and ours got worse.
Well, we don't know how much worse ours got. We take JV off and we add Brown. Plus Framer and Valdez are still at the "improving with experience" phases of their young careers. We are not a lock to be less lethal at starting pitching.
On offense, they basically stayed the same and we got better. And our improvement could be significant, depending on how the rest plays out. We still have quite a bit of dry powder.
Most importantly, when it comes to pitching they leave out the absolute biggest difference between our two clubs. We have the best pen the MLB has seen in a decade or more, and theirs is quite mediocre.
They didn't address their biggest disadvantage. That's a huge failure.
Well, we don't know how much worse ours got. We take JV off and we add Brown. Plus Framer and Valdez are still at the "improving with experience" phases of their young careers. We are not a lock to be less lethal at starting pitching.
On offense, they basically stayed the same and we got better. And our improvement could be significant, depending on how the rest plays out. We still have quite a bit of dry powder.
Most importantly, when it comes to pitching they leave out the absolute biggest difference between our two clubs. We have the best pen the MLB has seen in a decade or more, and theirs is quite mediocre.
They didn't address their biggest disadvantage. That's a huge failure.
They got better, no doubt. I think their path to winning the AL East again is a bit more clear. But for a variety of reasons, I still don't see them as a huge threat to our reign. Starting pitching was never their issue as it relates to our matchup. Boone tends to pull them after 3.1 innings in the playoffs anyway.FrioAg 00 said:
They are so focused that their starting rotation got better, and ours got worse.
Well, we don't know how much worse ours got. We take JV off and we add Brown. Plus Framer and Valdez are still at the "improving with experience" phases of their young careers. We are not a lock to be less lethal at starting pitching.
On offense, they basically stayed the same and we got better. And our improvement could be significant, depending on how the rest plays out. We still have quite a bit of dry powder.
Most importantly, when it comes to pitching they leave out the absolute biggest difference between our two clubs. We have the best pen the MLB has seen in a decade or more, and theirs is quite mediocre.
They didn't address their biggest disadvantage. That's a huge failure.
Per @JonHeyman, #Padres 3B Manny Machado is expected to opt-out of his contract and become a free-agent after the 2023 season. pic.twitter.com/5VX7WqFbBo
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) December 16, 2022
Big pay day for Manny is coming. He wants in on these stupid contracts.
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