Hello World!
What a year 2022 was. We are champions and no one deserves it more than us.
I wasn't exactly sure how to start this thread. Not many things in life prepare you to start a post-championship thread. It didn't seem like the pressure got to Mazag08 a few years ago. All I Do Is Nguyen will know the feeling in a few months.
Last year's offseason thread OP was very short and done hastily right after we lost the WS. Part of me felt like I needed to go back to the well and do the same this year. But a championship team and fanbase deserves better.
Our community tradition is for OPs to be GIF-strong, but I have to be true to myself and my role. Deluxe is synonymous with TLDR posts. And that's exactly what I'm gonna do right now. The door is open to the rest of you to counteract my boring OP and make this thread fun.
Quick Recap
As is annual tradition, experts were ready to crown a different team as AL West champion before the season. After all, the Astros can't keep winning the AL West forever, right? Right? RIGHT!? Here's Jeff Passan anointing the Mariners and getting something wrong for the 1,432,854,438th time:
Next, an AL West opposing manager forgot to adhere to the timeless adage: "If you come at the champs, you best not miss". Wonder where Joe Maddon is today…
At the All Star break, the Yankees were clearly starting to come apart at the seams but ESPN was so excited to anoint them as champs. Ouch.
Yankees fans said, "WE WANT HOUSTON". Phillies fans thought their home environment was somehow more hostile than all the sh*t we've seen over the last two years. LOL. LOL. LOL. Sorry guys. We can't hear you. Too much champagne popping.
The 2022 season was special. From roughly June forward, it was clear we had a championship makeup. No AL team had a chance to match us in a playoff series (barring some "that's baseball" bad luck). Our only threat was running into the Dodgers or Braves in the World Series, but when they lost in the DS, it was basically over. We were destined to be champs. AND THE BASEBALL GODS COMPLIED.
Ok enough of that mumbo jumbo. Onto the fun stuff. Some of y'all have already started discussing offseason on the season thread, but here's my official dive in:
Management
I think this is the most interesting aspect of our offseason. It's not very often that a championship team with virtually all its key players returning has question marks at the top. Crane has some interesting decisions to make.
Regarding Dusty, my vote is to bring him back (assuming he still wants to be back). I hear the day-to-day complaining about the lineup and resting guys. I was displeased with Dusty myself after he seemingly refused to play Mancini after we acquired him and kept playing Dubon over Chas in CF because "he can make better throws to 3B". But our chemistry/culture is so strong that I also think "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Other than maybe leaving JV and LMJ in too long in the WS, I thought he managed very well in the playoffs.
Even though some valid complaints can be made about his handling of the daily regular season lineup, he managed the pitching staff to perfection this year. Our arms were fresh and ready to go for October and it showed.
Regarding Click, I could go either way. The Contreras for Urquidy rumor and Crane having to step in and nix it is a yellow flag IMO (even though we don't know all the facts… after all, it was based on a Passan report)
But in a way, it kind of makes sense though. I don't think we hired Click to be a trade valuation expert. We hired him to bring Tampa's juicy pitching secrets. Like I've posted on here a few times, it's likely that those secrets have now been integrated into our processes. What's his current value add? I don't really have enough insight to know.
Part of me likes the idea of mixing up GM every few years anyway. There's a lot of intellectual horsepower in baseball these days and the game is changing quickly. Fresh perspective can be a good thing. Adding Click's wrinkles to Luhnow's machine may have been a good thing. Maybe we're ready for some new wrinkles.
With all that said, I'm fine keeping him to. Again, not broke, don't fix. The tea leaves seem to now be pointing toward him being back.
Personnel Overview
From a personnel standpoint, I feel like the offseason and what we can do boils down to the JV decision:
1) Retain JV, trade Urquidy or Garcia for a controllable 1B/OF bat, and fill in the rest with value guys
2) Let JV walk and have plenty of $$ to address 1B/OF via free agency or trade.
I don't think you can really go wrong either way but I find myself in scenario 1, partly because that's the direction I think Crane ultimately goes and partly because it's what I prefer. Not only is he still the best pitcher in baseball, he's also a leader/tone-setter for the club.
My desire to keep JV is based on the assumption that we can retain him for 2/$70-80 million. If JV is bent on getting the third year guaranteed, thanks for the memories. But I think the Crane/JV mutual interest in keeping him in Houston will ultimately win out.
NOTE: The rest of this post is written from the perspective of keeping JV. I'll let others lead the conversions about what to do if he leaves.
Pitching
JV's return next year would lock in the best rotation in baseball today and one of the best of all time. JV, Framber, Lance, Javier, Hunter and Urquidy/Garcia. Unreal.
I wouldn't be that surprised to see Javier solidify himself as an ace-caliber starter in 2023 and Brown start to approach that territory later in the year. Crazy to think, but it's possible that Lance could be our #5 starter by the end of next year.
I don't think we need to pay Montero or address the bullpen externally. It's possible that by year-end 2023, Abreu is our closer and Pressly slides into the setup role, which would be pure luxury. We've got Neris and Stanek back as proven high leverage guys. Martinez and Maton should still be regulars and we'll see how Taylor returns from injury.
One other idea is to give Whitley a few months to establish himself as our new #7 flexstarter. If he doesn't, then he's had enough chances and his time as a starting pitcher prospect should be up. We should start grooming him for a bullpen role.
Offense
Keeping JV likely means upgrading 1B/OF via a trade of Garcia or Urquidy. I don't know who exactly this would be yet but names on the market usually emerge early in the offseason. We've got the luxury of dangling Garcia/Urquidy, Leon, Lee/Diaz and maybe Chas (see below) to get a productive young player with ~3 years of control. Brian Reynolds is still the dream. Maybe the Pirates will finally be ready to deal.
I've said this before, but I think Uncle Mike will be back on a team-friendly one year deal. Wouldn't be surprised to see him with a 1B mitt in Spring Training either. Same with Yordan and Hensley. Assuming Yuli retires (which my gut says he is), I think we're more likely to fill 1B in this sort of way than retain Mancini or sign Rizzo/Bell… unless Mancini liked it so much here's that he's willing to stay on a super team-friendly deal.
I think Diaz is gone. Some team will offer him a deal to be a starting 2B/3B. That's fine though. Dubon and Hensley can take over utility duties.
CF drama likely isn't over unfortunately. Meyers is almost certainly going to get another extended full time look in CF next year. What that means for Chas remains to be seen. It would be hard to just send him back to the bench/fourth OF role after his playoff breakout this year. I don't really see us giving him the LF job either because we need a better bat out there. For better or worse, his trade value might never be higher. He deserves to start somewhere else if we can't make it happen for him.
Finally, anyone who follows my posts knows that I LOVE smart/savvy/veteran catchers. Gimme some Maldy all day long. But Vazquez has also earned a place in my heart. I'm guessing Maldy only has one more year in him and his days of full-time duties are probably over. Given how much our elite pitching staff relies on catcher, I want as smooth of a transition as possible from Maldy as we begin to phase him out. Vazquez is the PERFECT guy for that.
I'd make it a high priority to bring him back this offseason. Maybe a 3/$30 type of deal. IMO this is important enough to leak into the tax for. Sell Vazzy on the following:
1) You get to catch JV, Framber, Javier and split Hunter duties.
2) You get to be 1A to Maldy's 1B and the majority of playoff starts (since he's catching our aces)
3) The job is yours in 2024-2025 and mentor Diaz/Lee to replace you long term.
Extensions
Pena - Farmer asked the other day if we consider this. Yes please. Obviously his upside is tantalizing, but when committing ~10 years to a player, I like to look at the downside risk. IMO his downside case is that he doesn't develop much further offensively but still plays SS at a gold glove level. I'll take it. I'd be curious to know what price he'll consider though.
Tucker - I'd love to extend Ted this offseason, but I doubt he'll be interested. I expect him to rake sans shifts in 2023, then be ready to talk extension next year.
Framber - He's proven himself as an ace and performs on the biggest stages. Can't ask much more from the guy. His mechanics/body type make me feel comfortable that he'll avoid arm issues, but you just never know with pitchers. One of the biggest breaks the Astros have gotten during this run is Keuchel turning down his big extension offer. Pitchers can lose effectiveness over time even if there's no injury issues. I'd be ok giving him a 1-2 year tack on for Framber but not much more.
Javier - He's close but not ready to extend him yet either, unless the value is too good.
To conclude
Given that this community mostly consists largely of Aggie football fans, it's understandable that we're prone to complain about organizational decision making. And rightfully so. Most decisions made by our football brass over the past 20+ years have been horrible.
But this Astros regime couldn't be more opposite. Most of us will never root for a team again that deserves maximum benefit of the doubt from its fans. Competence has been proven time and time again and the results speak from themselves. Hope this title helps tone down the complaining around here a little and helps everyone ENJOY WHAT IS HAPPENING. Our window is still wide ass open but it won't last forever.
Lastly, I just wanted to express how much I enjoy interacting with everyone in this community (including Beau and Lonestar!). We're all human and get normal human pleasure out of "being right" about things (myself included). That quality can occasionally get taken too far on message boards and lead to conflict among people who all just want to see the Astros succeed. Offseason is a great time to reset and refocus on the bigger picture.
In the spirit of improved interactions, I wanted to introduce myself a little bit further. I'm Eric, Class of 2007 and live in The Woodlands (mostly for the golf). I'm a finance guy by trade and work in energy private equity. Sports are my passion though. I was Sports Editor of The Batt when I was at A&M in the mid-2000s, hence my ability to churn out so many boring TLDR posts. Been an avid Astros fan since 1998.
Looking forward to starting next year's offseason thread after we repeat in 2023!!!!!!!
What a year 2022 was. We are champions and no one deserves it more than us.
I wasn't exactly sure how to start this thread. Not many things in life prepare you to start a post-championship thread. It didn't seem like the pressure got to Mazag08 a few years ago. All I Do Is Nguyen will know the feeling in a few months.
Last year's offseason thread OP was very short and done hastily right after we lost the WS. Part of me felt like I needed to go back to the well and do the same this year. But a championship team and fanbase deserves better.
Our community tradition is for OPs to be GIF-strong, but I have to be true to myself and my role. Deluxe is synonymous with TLDR posts. And that's exactly what I'm gonna do right now. The door is open to the rest of you to counteract my boring OP and make this thread fun.
Quick Recap
As is annual tradition, experts were ready to crown a different team as AL West champion before the season. After all, the Astros can't keep winning the AL West forever, right? Right? RIGHT!? Here's Jeff Passan anointing the Mariners and getting something wrong for the 1,432,854,438th time:
Next, an AL West opposing manager forgot to adhere to the timeless adage: "If you come at the champs, you best not miss". Wonder where Joe Maddon is today…
At the All Star break, the Yankees were clearly starting to come apart at the seams but ESPN was so excited to anoint them as champs. Ouch.
Yankees fans said, "WE WANT HOUSTON". Phillies fans thought their home environment was somehow more hostile than all the sh*t we've seen over the last two years. LOL. LOL. LOL. Sorry guys. We can't hear you. Too much champagne popping.
The 2022 season was special. From roughly June forward, it was clear we had a championship makeup. No AL team had a chance to match us in a playoff series (barring some "that's baseball" bad luck). Our only threat was running into the Dodgers or Braves in the World Series, but when they lost in the DS, it was basically over. We were destined to be champs. AND THE BASEBALL GODS COMPLIED.
Ok enough of that mumbo jumbo. Onto the fun stuff. Some of y'all have already started discussing offseason on the season thread, but here's my official dive in:
Management
I think this is the most interesting aspect of our offseason. It's not very often that a championship team with virtually all its key players returning has question marks at the top. Crane has some interesting decisions to make.
Regarding Dusty, my vote is to bring him back (assuming he still wants to be back). I hear the day-to-day complaining about the lineup and resting guys. I was displeased with Dusty myself after he seemingly refused to play Mancini after we acquired him and kept playing Dubon over Chas in CF because "he can make better throws to 3B". But our chemistry/culture is so strong that I also think "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Other than maybe leaving JV and LMJ in too long in the WS, I thought he managed very well in the playoffs.
Even though some valid complaints can be made about his handling of the daily regular season lineup, he managed the pitching staff to perfection this year. Our arms were fresh and ready to go for October and it showed.
Regarding Click, I could go either way. The Contreras for Urquidy rumor and Crane having to step in and nix it is a yellow flag IMO (even though we don't know all the facts… after all, it was based on a Passan report)
But in a way, it kind of makes sense though. I don't think we hired Click to be a trade valuation expert. We hired him to bring Tampa's juicy pitching secrets. Like I've posted on here a few times, it's likely that those secrets have now been integrated into our processes. What's his current value add? I don't really have enough insight to know.
Part of me likes the idea of mixing up GM every few years anyway. There's a lot of intellectual horsepower in baseball these days and the game is changing quickly. Fresh perspective can be a good thing. Adding Click's wrinkles to Luhnow's machine may have been a good thing. Maybe we're ready for some new wrinkles.
With all that said, I'm fine keeping him to. Again, not broke, don't fix. The tea leaves seem to now be pointing toward him being back.
Personnel Overview
From a personnel standpoint, I feel like the offseason and what we can do boils down to the JV decision:
1) Retain JV, trade Urquidy or Garcia for a controllable 1B/OF bat, and fill in the rest with value guys
2) Let JV walk and have plenty of $$ to address 1B/OF via free agency or trade.
I don't think you can really go wrong either way but I find myself in scenario 1, partly because that's the direction I think Crane ultimately goes and partly because it's what I prefer. Not only is he still the best pitcher in baseball, he's also a leader/tone-setter for the club.
My desire to keep JV is based on the assumption that we can retain him for 2/$70-80 million. If JV is bent on getting the third year guaranteed, thanks for the memories. But I think the Crane/JV mutual interest in keeping him in Houston will ultimately win out.
NOTE: The rest of this post is written from the perspective of keeping JV. I'll let others lead the conversions about what to do if he leaves.
Pitching
JV's return next year would lock in the best rotation in baseball today and one of the best of all time. JV, Framber, Lance, Javier, Hunter and Urquidy/Garcia. Unreal.
I wouldn't be that surprised to see Javier solidify himself as an ace-caliber starter in 2023 and Brown start to approach that territory later in the year. Crazy to think, but it's possible that Lance could be our #5 starter by the end of next year.
I don't think we need to pay Montero or address the bullpen externally. It's possible that by year-end 2023, Abreu is our closer and Pressly slides into the setup role, which would be pure luxury. We've got Neris and Stanek back as proven high leverage guys. Martinez and Maton should still be regulars and we'll see how Taylor returns from injury.
One other idea is to give Whitley a few months to establish himself as our new #7 flexstarter. If he doesn't, then he's had enough chances and his time as a starting pitcher prospect should be up. We should start grooming him for a bullpen role.
Offense
Keeping JV likely means upgrading 1B/OF via a trade of Garcia or Urquidy. I don't know who exactly this would be yet but names on the market usually emerge early in the offseason. We've got the luxury of dangling Garcia/Urquidy, Leon, Lee/Diaz and maybe Chas (see below) to get a productive young player with ~3 years of control. Brian Reynolds is still the dream. Maybe the Pirates will finally be ready to deal.
I've said this before, but I think Uncle Mike will be back on a team-friendly one year deal. Wouldn't be surprised to see him with a 1B mitt in Spring Training either. Same with Yordan and Hensley. Assuming Yuli retires (which my gut says he is), I think we're more likely to fill 1B in this sort of way than retain Mancini or sign Rizzo/Bell… unless Mancini liked it so much here's that he's willing to stay on a super team-friendly deal.
I think Diaz is gone. Some team will offer him a deal to be a starting 2B/3B. That's fine though. Dubon and Hensley can take over utility duties.
CF drama likely isn't over unfortunately. Meyers is almost certainly going to get another extended full time look in CF next year. What that means for Chas remains to be seen. It would be hard to just send him back to the bench/fourth OF role after his playoff breakout this year. I don't really see us giving him the LF job either because we need a better bat out there. For better or worse, his trade value might never be higher. He deserves to start somewhere else if we can't make it happen for him.
Finally, anyone who follows my posts knows that I LOVE smart/savvy/veteran catchers. Gimme some Maldy all day long. But Vazquez has also earned a place in my heart. I'm guessing Maldy only has one more year in him and his days of full-time duties are probably over. Given how much our elite pitching staff relies on catcher, I want as smooth of a transition as possible from Maldy as we begin to phase him out. Vazquez is the PERFECT guy for that.
I'd make it a high priority to bring him back this offseason. Maybe a 3/$30 type of deal. IMO this is important enough to leak into the tax for. Sell Vazzy on the following:
1) You get to catch JV, Framber, Javier and split Hunter duties.
2) You get to be 1A to Maldy's 1B and the majority of playoff starts (since he's catching our aces)
3) The job is yours in 2024-2025 and mentor Diaz/Lee to replace you long term.
Extensions
Pena - Farmer asked the other day if we consider this. Yes please. Obviously his upside is tantalizing, but when committing ~10 years to a player, I like to look at the downside risk. IMO his downside case is that he doesn't develop much further offensively but still plays SS at a gold glove level. I'll take it. I'd be curious to know what price he'll consider though.
Tucker - I'd love to extend Ted this offseason, but I doubt he'll be interested. I expect him to rake sans shifts in 2023, then be ready to talk extension next year.
Framber - He's proven himself as an ace and performs on the biggest stages. Can't ask much more from the guy. His mechanics/body type make me feel comfortable that he'll avoid arm issues, but you just never know with pitchers. One of the biggest breaks the Astros have gotten during this run is Keuchel turning down his big extension offer. Pitchers can lose effectiveness over time even if there's no injury issues. I'd be ok giving him a 1-2 year tack on for Framber but not much more.
Javier - He's close but not ready to extend him yet either, unless the value is too good.
To conclude
Given that this community mostly consists largely of Aggie football fans, it's understandable that we're prone to complain about organizational decision making. And rightfully so. Most decisions made by our football brass over the past 20+ years have been horrible.
But this Astros regime couldn't be more opposite. Most of us will never root for a team again that deserves maximum benefit of the doubt from its fans. Competence has been proven time and time again and the results speak from themselves. Hope this title helps tone down the complaining around here a little and helps everyone ENJOY WHAT IS HAPPENING. Our window is still wide ass open but it won't last forever.
Lastly, I just wanted to express how much I enjoy interacting with everyone in this community (including Beau and Lonestar!). We're all human and get normal human pleasure out of "being right" about things (myself included). That quality can occasionally get taken too far on message boards and lead to conflict among people who all just want to see the Astros succeed. Offseason is a great time to reset and refocus on the bigger picture.
In the spirit of improved interactions, I wanted to introduce myself a little bit further. I'm Eric, Class of 2007 and live in The Woodlands (mostly for the golf). I'm a finance guy by trade and work in energy private equity. Sports are my passion though. I was Sports Editor of The Batt when I was at A&M in the mid-2000s, hence my ability to churn out so many boring TLDR posts. Been an avid Astros fan since 1998.
Looking forward to starting next year's offseason thread after we repeat in 2023!!!!!!!
