Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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McInnis said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Here is @MLBNow's full #Top10RightNow 👇

What do you think? pic.twitter.com/BOYcqLWZJh

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 2, 2023

No Framber
No Javier
Not even Nola, Cole, Gallen, Cease, Beiber, or Manoha.

This is a hard list to make.

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It really is. And Scherzer has flamed out in post-season due to arm fatigue two years straight now. He's past his prime and probably entering the steep part of the downhill slope.

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and when did Rodon become a top 5 pitcher? oh, since he signed with the Yankees I guess

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His last two years have been pretty elite, no?

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Beat40 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Gotta take Bags don't you?

That's a tough really good question.

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Agreed. Harry's original question was a good one.

I'd probly lean Bags too but very tempting to roll dice with Yordan.

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It's not even a question for me. I would always take the guaranteed HOF career for Yordan.

Bagwell's age 26-32 seasons were absolute monsters. In those 7 years, 5 were OPS over 1.000 and the other two were 0.981 and 0.894.

Those types of seasons for Yordan, with the current window the Astros have would be downright ridiculous.

There is no probably for me in the scenario of would you take Bagwell's numbers for Yordan.

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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McInnis said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Here is @MLBNow's full #Top10RightNow 👇

What do you think? pic.twitter.com/BOYcqLWZJh

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 2, 2023

No Framber
No Javier
Not even Nola, Cole, Gallen, Cease, Beiber, or Manoha.

This is a hard list to make.

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It really is. And Scherzer has flamed out in post-season due to arm fatigue two years straight now. He's past his prime and probably entering the steep part of the downhill slope.

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and when did Rodon become a top 5 pitcher? oh, since he signed with the Yankees I guess

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His last two years have been pretty elite, no?

Edit: added stats

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Farmer1906 said:

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New article on our future ace.

Hunter Brown is Framber Valdez in a Justin Verlander Shaped Container

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26. Houston Astros

Not to be a broken record, but the Astros drafted without scouts for years, and it showed in the results, which were also hurt when the team was drafting at the end of the first round rather than the top. They also almost completely punted on international free agency after 2016, only signing three players for seven figures or more between then and 2022, two of them Cuban defectors (Pedro Len and the since-released Elin Rodriguez). They did also lose their first two picks in 2021 to penalties for the sign-stealing scandal, but had a strong 2022 draft that mixed some high-floor and medium-ceiling college players, which at least should provide more tradeable players to keep the big-league club going.

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Quote:

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29. Atlanta

The only team without a player on my top 100 this year, although that can't be too surprising after Atlanta sent most of its farm system to Oakland in trades for Matt Olson and Sean Murphy. They do have some pitching coming in the long term and a little in the short term, but they're very light on position players. They did go for ceiling in a huge way in the 2022 draft, taking three high school arms with their first three picks, and they finally got back into the international free agent market in 2022 when the 2017 penalties expired.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Keith Law Rankings Farm Systems

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26. Houston Astros

Not to be a broken record, but the Astros drafted without scouts for years, and it showed in the results, which were also hurt when the team was drafting at the end of the first round rather than the top. They also almost completely punted on international free agency after 2016, only signing three players for seven figures or more between then and 2022, two of them Cuban defectors (Pedro Len and the since-released Elin Rodriguez). They did also lose their first two picks in 2021 to penalties for the sign-stealing scandal, but had a strong 2022 draft that mixed some high-floor and medium-ceiling college players, which at least should provide more tradeable players to keep the big-league club going.

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Don't worry... Dana Brown is here to save us.

Quote:

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29. Atlanta

The only team without a player on my top 100 this year, although that can't be too surprising after Atlanta sent most of its farm system to Oakland in trades for Matt Olson and Sean Murphy. They do have some pitching coming in the long term and a little in the short term, but they're very light on position players. They did go for ceiling in a huge way in the 2022 draft, taking three high school arms with their first three picks, and they finally got back into the international free agent market in 2022 when the 2017 penalties expired.

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Farmer1906 said:

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New article on our future ace.

Hunter Brown is Framber Valdez in a Justin Verlander Shaped Container

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this is an astute observation and great morning reading. because this article didn’t include it, I’ll note that Brown ran the following groundball rates over the much larger AAA sample too (MLB Avg ~45%)

4S: 51.5%
Curve: 69.8%(!)
SL: 61%(!)
Changeup (only 14 batted balls): 64.3% https://t.co/hS2syJU3i8

— Ben 🥇 (@midzee4) February 2, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

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Quote:

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26. Houston Astros

Not to be a broken record, but the Astros drafted without scouts for years, and it showed in the results, which were also hurt when the team was drafting at the end of the first round rather than the top. They also almost completely punted on international free agency after 2016, only signing three players for seven figures or more between then and 2022, two of them Cuban defectors (Pedro Len and the since-released Elin Rodriguez). They did also lose their first two picks in 2021 to penalties for the sign-stealing scandal, but had a strong 2022 draft that mixed some high-floor and medium-ceiling college players, which at least should provide more tradeable players to keep the big-league club going.

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Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Quote:

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26. Houston Astros

Not to be a broken record, but the Astros drafted without scouts for years, and it showed in the results, which were also hurt when the team was drafting at the end of the first round rather than the top. They also almost completely punted on international free agency after 2016, only signing three players for seven figures or more between then and 2022, two of them Cuban defectors (Pedro Len and the since-released Elin Rodriguez). They did also lose their first two picks in 2021 to penalties for the sign-stealing scandal, but had a strong 2022 draft that mixed some high-floor and medium-ceiling college players, which at least should provide more tradeable players to keep the big-league club going.

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This will be much higher going into 2024. I'm ready for the Alimber Santa and Miguel Ullola breakouts.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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This will be much higher going into 2024. I'm ready for the Alimber Santa and Miguel Ullola breakouts.

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AKA Cristian Javier 4 years ago. He's already got the "riseball" the Ks everyone. Just needs to improve the secondary.

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When it came to pure bat missing ability, there were few young pitchers as successful as the Astros' Miguel Ullola in 2022. Making his full season debut at Low-A Fayetteville, the 6'1" righty racked up 120 strikeouts in just 72 total innings, good for an eye-popping 38.3% K rate- a figure that topped the leaderboard for Carolina League pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched by over five percent. Even when the competition was able to make contact against him, it was infrequently meaningful, with just 39 hits and 3 home runs on his season ledger.

Ullola's bread and butter is a power fastball. I've written at length about how and why the Astros frequently take an interest in shorter, powerful righties, and he is next up in that long line. Already up to the upper 90s at 6'1", 185 lbs., the raw quality of the fastball is probably already close to its ceiling, but that isn't a problem as it is already a special pitch. In addition to the impressive velocity, Ullola's heater also sports palpable riding action, causing hitters to swing under it frequently. He tries to live in the upper third with it, and when he's landing it there consistently, minor league hitters are no match for it.

It's a narrow arsenal at present, as the fastball is really only backed up by a power slider at present, but that offering also shows significant promise. While his command of the breaker is behind that of his fastball- and the fastball command still has a ways to go- its combination of mid-80s velocity and sharp, two plane break give it the potential to induce plenty of swings and misses as well, and when he is able to locate it that is already happening.

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bearkatag15 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Our system rank keeps sucking and yet we keep pumping out great players. At this point it's safer to assume that our guys internally know a hell of a lot more about evaluating prospects than Keith Law does.

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ROTY
2022: Pena 5th
2021: Garcia 2nd
2020: Javier 3rd
2019: Alvarez 1st

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2023: Brown 1st

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loma_vista78 said:

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I'm almost certain the Astros broke the bank in the 16/17 international period and couldn't sign anyone over like 250k for 2 consecutive periods. That was conveniently left out by Law.

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Farmer1906 said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Our system rank keeps sucking and yet we keep pumping out great players. At this point it's safer to assume that our guys internally know a hell of a lot more about evaluating prospects than Keith Law does.

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ROTY
2022: Pena 5th
2021: Garcia 2nd
2020: Javier 3rd
2019: Alvarez 1st

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2023: Brown 1st

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Per the oddsmakers
Fanduel: 2nd (+700)
BetMGM: 3rd (+800)
Caesars: 7th (+1400)

Gunnar Henderson is the runaway favorite.

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Yuli Guerriel had been seeking $3 million. He's still out there after turning down a few deals. He changed agents, but apparently the issue was actually his sub .700 OPS.

Dusty Baker is stumping to get Gurriel back with the Astros, though the fit is tight after they signed Jose Abreu.

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