***** Official 2022 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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AggiEE
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 9:56a, 7/29/22
BMX Bandit said:
Quote:
We can win a World Series without making any trades.

Anything can happen in a 7 game series, and sometimes guys just get hot. That's baseball.
Sure, we can win one by doing nothing. so can the mariners if everyone gets hot.

but we'd better position ourselves to do so by trading to improve the offense.


I'm not arguing that we shouldn't try and improve, but I also want the Astros to continue having the luxury of starting pitching depth with so many unknowns in the next few years.

And to be honest there's not many compelling outfielders available at teams willing to trade with multiple years of control that are worth giving up an Urquidy for.
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:57a, 7/29/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
The 12 players most likely to be traded


Quote:
1) Willson Contreras, Cubs C
Introducing a new catcher can be tricky for a contender, as it can take a while to learn a new pitching staff. But Contreras is arguably the best bat available on the market, so teams might look to acquire him as a designated hitter and part-time backstop. Either way, the impending free agent seems like a lock to be moved.

Potential landing spots: Astros, Mets, Rays


4) Josh Bell, Nationals 1B
Juan Soto isn't the only Nationals player getting attention on the trade market this summer. Available power bats are relatively scarce this month, but Bell -- an impending free agent who has 13 homers and an .877 OPS should help add some pop to a contender at first base or DH. He's owed roughly $3.3 million through the end of the season.
Potential landing spots: Astros, Brewers, Mets


We're not listed under Castillo or anyone else. Bryan Reynolds is not one of the 12.

I wouldn't expect Reynolds to end up on a list like that. He's just a potential answer to the question "who does it make sense to deal Urquidy for".
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Buck Compton
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 9:59a, 7/29/22
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
We have the third best record in the MLB. Atlanta's starting lineup OPS+ vs. ours last year:

ATL / HOU (2021) / HOU (2022)
156 / 147 / 204
134 / 136 / 144
133 / 131 / 124 (if Brantley comes back)
129 / 131 / 123
106 / 127 / 119
97 / 119 / 115
75 / 113 / 107 (assuming Chas starts)
75 / 85 / 92
69 / 58 / 61

We all know the playoffs are kind of a crap shoot and weird things happen (like Jackie Braldley Jr. going out of his mind). We'd all like to be the best offense in the league, but this is a VERY ignorant statement. I think this largest issue is really addressing Brantley's absence, but to claim we won't win the WS with this lineup is absurd. It's better than what the Braves won with last year.

You guys have to get the point through your head that the whole league's stats are down after Manfred messed with the baseballs. You can't just compare counting stats or OPS directly to the last few years.
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Wabs
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10:02a, 7/29/22
AG
With Brantley questionable on coming back this season, why would the Astros not be interested in Happ or Peralta?
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Ag_07
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10:08a, 7/29/22
AG

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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Buck Compton • 10:09a, 7/29/22
AG
I just watch the offense three past few days and I don't see much potential. At some point in the postseason, a pitcher won't perform and we will end up in an offensive shootout. We aren't winning an offensive shootout without getting one or two additional offensive players. Brantley coming back would help but that is becoming less likely as the days go by.

Relying on the team getting hot is a dangerous thing to do, and it would be foolish of the GM to do.
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EastCoastAgNc
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10:09a, 7/29/22
AG
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AggiEE
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10:15a, 7/29/22
A high ask for a rental on a guy with a fairly outlier year

Sure, I'd like to have him, but curious what that high ask is.
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redline248
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In reply to Buck Compton • 10:16a, 7/29/22
AG
Buck Compton said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
We have the third best record in the MLB. Atlanta's starting lineup OPS+ vs. ours last year:

ATL / HOU (2021) / HOU (2022)
156 / 147 / 204
134 / 136 / 144
133 / 131 / 124 (if Brantley comes back)
129 / 131 / 123
106 / 127 / 119
97 / 119 / 115
75 / 113 / 107 (assuming Chas starts)
75 / 85 / 92
69 / 58 / 61

We all know the playoffs are kind of a crap shoot and weird things happen (like Jackie Braldley Jr. going out of his mind). We'd all like to be the best offense in the league, but this is a VERY ignorant statement. I think this largest issue is really addressing Brantley's absence, but to claim we won't win the WS with this lineup is absurd. It's better than what the Braves won with last year.

You guys have to get the point through your head that the whole league's stats are down after Manfred messed with the baseballs. You can't just compare counting stats or OPS directly to the last few years.
compare our offense this year to this year's Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Braves. Does it still hold up?
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AggiEE
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In reply to redline248 • 10:17a, 7/29/22
redline248 said:
Buck Compton said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
We have the third best record in the MLB. Atlanta's starting lineup OPS+ vs. ours last year:

ATL / HOU (2021) / HOU (2022)
156 / 147 / 204
134 / 136 / 144
133 / 131 / 124 (if Brantley comes back)
129 / 131 / 123
106 / 127 / 119
97 / 119 / 115
75 / 113 / 107 (assuming Chas starts)
75 / 85 / 92
69 / 58 / 61

We all know the playoffs are kind of a crap shoot and weird things happen (like Jackie Braldley Jr. going out of his mind). We'd all like to be the best offense in the league, but this is a VERY ignorant statement. I think this largest issue is really addressing Brantley's absence, but to claim we won't win the WS with this lineup is absurd. It's better than what the Braves won with last year.

You guys have to get the point through your head that the whole league's stats are down after Manfred messed with the baseballs. You can't just compare counting stats or OPS directly to the last few years.
compare our offense this year to this year's Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Braves. Does it still hold up?


Seems like our offense is good enough to spank the Yankees
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redline248
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In reply to AggiEE • 10:18a, 7/29/22
AG
AggiEE said:
redline248 said:
Buck Compton said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
We have the third best record in the MLB. Atlanta's starting lineup OPS+ vs. ours last year:

ATL / HOU (2021) / HOU (2022)
156 / 147 / 204
134 / 136 / 144
133 / 131 / 124 (if Brantley comes back)
129 / 131 / 123
106 / 127 / 119
97 / 119 / 115
75 / 113 / 107 (assuming Chas starts)
75 / 85 / 92
69 / 58 / 61

We all know the playoffs are kind of a crap shoot and weird things happen (like Jackie Braldley Jr. going out of his mind). We'd all like to be the best offense in the league, but this is a VERY ignorant statement. I think this largest issue is really addressing Brantley's absence, but to claim we won't win the WS with this lineup is absurd. It's better than what the Braves won with last year.

You guys have to get the point through your head that the whole league's stats are down after Manfred messed with the baseballs. You can't just compare counting stats or OPS directly to the last few years.
compare our offense this year to this year's Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Braves. Does it still hold up?


Seems like our offense is good enough to spank the Yankees
or rather our pitching is good enough to shut them down
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to AggiEE • 10:19a, 7/29/22
AG
AggiEE said:
A high ask for a rental on a guy with a fairly outlier year

Sure, I'd like to have him, but curious what that high ask is.
They want Maldonado AND Contreras.
Life is better with a beagle
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Ag_07
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10:20a, 7/29/22
AG
As mentioned Click may overpay but is that worth it if you're dealing assets from an area of surplus?
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MosesHallRAB04
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In reply to Buck Compton • 10:21a, 7/29/22
AG
Buck Compton said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
We have the third best record in the MLB. Atlanta's starting lineup OPS+ vs. ours last year:

ATL / HOU (2021) / HOU (2022)
156 / 147 / 204
134 / 136 / 144
133 / 131 / 124 (if Brantley comes back)
129 / 131 / 123
106 / 127 / 119
97 / 119 / 115
75 / 113 / 107 (assuming Chas starts)
75 / 85 / 92
69 / 58 / 61

We all know the playoffs are kind of a crap shoot and weird things happen (like Jackie Braldley Jr. going out of his mind). We'd all like to be the best offense in the league, but this is a VERY ignorant statement. I think this largest issue is really addressing Brantley's absence, but to claim we won't win the WS with this lineup is absurd. It's better than what the Braves won with last year.

You guys have to get the point through your head that the whole league's stats are down after Manfred messed with the baseballs. You can't just compare counting stats or OPS directly to the last few years.


Pitching, pitching, pitching. Astros have lost 2 WS because their offense ran into fantastic pitching. The Astros pitching was good too but they ran into better for those series.

That's why I'd be very on the fence about trading any current roster pitching unless it's for Castilo who's be considered an upgrade. Starters go into the pen all the time in the post season. And it keeps guys from wearing down as much
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W
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10:31a, 7/29/22
AG
back to Bregman...he is channelling his inner-Colorado Rockie:

OPS at home ----> .912

OPS on the road ----> .654

whopping 258-point difference.

he is an all-star at Minute Maid

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redline248
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10:34a, 7/29/22
AG
Houston averaged 3.8 runs/game vs the Yankees. Season average is about 4.4. Would like to push that up closer to 5 in the playoffs.

For comparison the Yankees are about 5.2/game for the season, Dodgers are 5.2, Braves are 4.7 and Twins about 4.6.
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bearkatag15
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 10:39a, 7/29/22
AG
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
EastCoastAgNc said:
AggiEE said:
Mathguy64 said:
Click is between a rock and a herd spot here. He is in an unusual position of being a contender with excess starting pitching that he can trade. One could argue it's more than "can" it's "must". Normally that would net a solid return. But everyone knows this and will hold him over a barrel knowing he has to unload someone. Anyone worth their GM job title would be asking for Urquidy, Garcia or Javier plus something else. And none of them will want to touch Odo.

IMHO he's going to end up overpaying for whoever he gets. Not because he is getting fleeced but because of the pitching surplus. It's a very unusual problem.


He doesn't have to budge. We still need pitching for the next three years and contend.

We will not win a world series with this offense this year or in the future. He does have to move one because it's the only appealing point of strength in this organization that we would be willing to trade from.
Bold statement seeing how THIS offense beat da Jankees in a double header...is it likely, of course not but saying there is no way is again...being obtuse
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Mathguy64
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10:40a, 7/29/22
AG
Ok. So you want to compare offenses. Here you go.

LAD. 257/336/440, wRC+ 120, fWAR 23.5, BABIP .302, 511 runs, 126 HR, GDP 56
NYY 245/330/442, wRC+ 119, fWAR 23.2, BABIP .275, 526 runs, 169 HR, GDP 74

The Yankees are hitting homers like no one else, the dodgers get on base by hitting their way on. That BABIP is crazy high. These are the cream of the crop offenses.

HOU 239/316/423, wRC+ 109, fWAR 17.7, BABIP .266, 443 runs, 141 HR, GDP 66
NYM 253/324/397, wRC+ 109 fWAR 16.9, BABIP .297, 456 runs, 96 HR, GDP 68
ATL 248/312/441, wRC+ 107 fWAR 16.4, BABIP .294, 474 runs, 154 HR, GDP 56

Doing it in different ways. The Mets sequence way better than anyone else and have no power at all and ATL is hitting better than us but somehow less effectively. We are Earl Weaver's wet dream. Get on base and hit 3 run HRs. I keep looking at that BABIP and all I can think of is the shift is hurting us in ways we cannot even imagine with Bregman, Tucker and Yordan.

SEA 235/318/388 wRC+ 107, fWAR 14.4, BABIP .282, 408 runs, 110 HR, GDP 68

They aren't winning it by batting

ETA GIDP info. Not only are LAD getting on base a lot they don't hurt themselves by GIDP. And for those wanting Josh Bell, he leads all of MLB by hitting into 19 of them. Bregman leads us at 13. That's a bit scary because we don't get on that much and proportionally wipe more than our fair share out by GDP and Bell appears to wipe them out a lot.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 10:41a, 7/29/22
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
I just watch the offense three past few days and I don't see much potential. At some point in the postseason, a pitcher won't perform and we will end up in an offensive shootout. We aren't winning an offensive shootout without getting one or two additional offensive players. Brantley coming back would help but that is becoming less likely as the days go by.

Relying on the team getting hot is a dangerous thing to do, and it would be foolish of the GM to do.
Its called baseball. Sometimes that happens, but don't fool yourself this IS one of the top offensive production teams in the MLB
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redline248
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 10:45a, 7/29/22
AG
And we have guys like Yuli who either hit with no one on base and get stranded, or do jack squat when other runners are on base.
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linkdude
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10:55a, 7/29/22
AG
Our BABIP is .266! Think of all the luck runs we've lost
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Beat40
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In reply to redline248 • 10:55a, 7/29/22
redline248 said:
And we have guys like Yuli who either hit with no one on base and get stranded, or do jack squat when other runners are on base.


Although I do like him I the two spot just because he's generally a contact guy and hopefully Yordan provides him protection.

Alex has looked lots better. Hopefully that continues.

Peña just has those rookie holes pitchers are exploiting right now - bendy pitches down and busting him inside.

At least one more bat would make me feel a lot better since Brantley doesn't seem ready to be back anytime soon.
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Ag_07
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11:01a, 7/29/22
AG
If including Urquidy in a deal to land Bell means we don't have to watch Yuli bat then I wouldn't hesitate.
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bearkatag15
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11:05a, 7/29/22
AG


got some naughty Astros fans out there lol
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Mathguy64
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In reply to linkdude • 11:09a, 7/29/22
AG
linkdude said:
Our BABIP is .266! Think of all the luck runs we've lost
My gut tells me this is an indicator of the shift or at least that the shift is affecting this and it's no longer quite such a "luck" stat as it has been. For example, some BABIP for us.

Tucker .245
Bregman .241

Both guys who are heavily shifted. For a comparison, Siri is at .247.

Yordan .303. Also heavily shifted but he hits way more HRs. That makes up for it I suspect.
Peña .304. Interesting. Higher than I expected.
Altuve .277. About league average
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texasaggie2015
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11:10a, 7/29/22
AG


There's a part two as well
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MosesHallRAB04
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In reply to Ag_07 • 11:12a, 7/29/22
AG
Ag_07 said:
If including Urquidy in a deal to land Bell means we don't have to watch Yuli bat then I wouldn't hesitate.


Urquidy with the control left for a Bell rental seems like a terrible deal to me.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to MosesHallRAB04 • 11:14a, 7/29/22
AG
MosesHallRAB04 said:
Ag_07 said:
If including Urquidy in a deal to land Bell means we don't have to watch Yuli bat then I wouldn't hesitate.


Urquidy with the control left for a Bell rental seems like a terrible deal to me.
Again... they are not trading a starting pitcher with multiple years of control for a rental bat.
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FrioAg 00
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11:16a, 7/29/22
AG
Bell is from texas, maybe they are trading him with Bell signing an extension

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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:22a, 7/29/22
AG
My eyes arent good enough to read any of that...
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 11:22a, 7/29/22
Mathguy64 said:
linkdude said:
Our BABIP is .266! Think of all the luck runs we've lost
My gut tells me this is an indicator of the shift or at least that the shift is affecting this and it's no longer quite such a "luck" stat as it has been. For example, some BABIP for us.

Tucker .245
Bregman .241

Both guys who are heavily shifted. For a comparison, Siri is at .247.

Yordan .303. Also heavily shifted but he hits way more HRs. That makes up for it I suspect.
Peña .304. Interesting. Higher than I expected.
Altuve .277. About league average


I think the HRs obviously help Yordan, but I think it's more that he is ok with hitting it to the opposite field for a single. He doesn't take many selfish ABs. He reminds me a lot of Pujols, actually, in that he'll bomb the ball, but if he needs to just hit a single the other way for an RBI, he'll do it.

Yordan is a hitter with power, not a power hitter.

The difference to me between Yordan, Bregman, and Tucker is it never appears to me Yordan is looking to always hit a ball at a specific launch angle. He always looks to me like he's looking for the hit. Bregman and Tucker always appear to me to be trying to hit the ball more at a specific launch angle rather than just getting up there and hitting.
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Farmer1906
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11:24a, 7/29/22
AG
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:26a, 7/29/22
AG
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
linkdude said:
Our BABIP is .266! Think of all the luck runs we've lost
My gut tells me this is an indicator of the shift or at least that the shift is affecting this and it's no longer quite such a "luck" stat as it has been. For example, some BABIP for us.

Tucker .245
Bregman .241

Both guys who are heavily shifted. For a comparison, Siri is at .247.

Yordan .303. Also heavily shifted but he hits way more HRs. That makes up for it I suspect.
Peña .304. Interesting. Higher than I expected.
Altuve .277. About league average


I think the HRs obviously help Yordan, but I think it's more that he is ok with hitting it to the opposite field for a single. He doesn't take many selfish ABs. He reminds me a lot of Pujols, actually, in that he'll bomb the ball, but if he needs to just hit a single the other way for an RBI, he'll do it.

Yordan is a hitter with power, not a power hitter.
I completely agree with this description. He's he also hits the ball insanely hard.
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 11:28a, 7/29/22
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
linkdude said:
Our BABIP is .266! Think of all the luck runs we've lost
My gut tells me this is an indicator of the shift or at least that the shift is affecting this and it's no longer quite such a "luck" stat as it has been. For example, some BABIP for us.

Tucker .245
Bregman .241

Both guys who are heavily shifted. For a comparison, Siri is at .247.

Yordan .303. Also heavily shifted but he hits way more HRs. That makes up for it I suspect.
Peña .304. Interesting. Higher than I expected.
Altuve .277. About league average


I think the HRs obviously help Yordan, but I think it's more that he is ok with hitting it to the opposite field for a single. He doesn't take many selfish ABs. He reminds me a lot of Pujols, actually, in that he'll bomb the ball, but if he needs to just hit a single the other way for an RBI, he'll do it.

Yordan is a hitter with power, not a power hitter.
I completely agree with this description. He's he also hits the ball insanely hard.


Yup, and I'm impressed at the improvement he made this past offseason to recognize the low and away pitches and either lay off or foul off. Has made him so much more dangerous and just an overall better hitter.
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Bonnettecj1
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:34a, 7/29/22
texasaggie2015 said:


There's a part two as well


Part II: "You aren't bad for a Jew"
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