***** Official 2022 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

5,444,037 Views | 83072 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Harry Dunne
EastCoastAgNc
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AG
FWIW here's what Ken said about him, mostly focusing on comparable trades:
Quote:

So, what kind of return should the Reds expect for Castillo, who is under club control not only for the rest of this season, but also the next one?

Consider two recent deadline trades for starting pitchers at the same level of service Jos Berros, who went from the Twins to the Blue Jays in 2021; and Marcus Stroman, who went from the Jays to the Mets in 2019.

Each deal brought two well-regarded prospects, and each included right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, the 48th selection in the 2018 draft. For Stroman, the Jays acquired Woods Richardson and righty Anthony Kay, the 31st pick in 2016. For Berros, the Twins acquired Woods Richardson and shortstop Austin Martin, the fifth pick in 2020.

The performances of those players have yet to match their pedigrees. Woods Richardson, 21, has a 3.40 ERA in 11 starts at Double A, but currently is on the injured list. Martin, 23, is struggling offensively at the same level. Kay, 27, has a 5.48 ERA in 28 major-league games, and is currently on the injured list with the Jays at Triple A.

The Astros' deal for Gerrit Cole in January 2018 also was somewhat comparable to the situation the Reds face with Castillo, though Cole was under club control for two full seasons, as opposed to one-plus. For Cole, the Pirates acquired right-handers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran, and outfielder Jason Martin.
EABC_AG
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Really hope we don't trade Chas for a rental. He has really come on recently
texasaggie2015
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I have a gut feeling we get Castillo. Purely a gut feeling but it makes sense with JV likely exploring the market this offseason.
Deluxe
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Ag_07 said:

This place is nuts right now and we haven't even hit the trade deadline or the Aug slump yet.
But our #6 starter is supposed to be as consistent as an ace and never have a bad outing
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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Quote:

the Astros have been extremely aggressive and that they will be a better team by Aug. 2.
Deluxe
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texasaggie2015 said:

I have a gut feeling we get Castillo. Purely a gut feeling but it makes sense with JV likely exploring the market this offseason.
He fits the "traditional" Astros trade candidate mold and comes with the side bonus of driving Yankee fans absolutely insane that we beat them out for another top line starter. Wonder if LMJ's start this week in Sugar Land has any bearing on whether or not we make a strong play for Castillo.

I'm coming around more to The Farmer Plan of snagging Bell and Contreras. Lineup of Death.
Farmer1906
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I think getting both hitters would cost less than Castillo plus the lineup reaches the point of "is this the best lineup ever" conversations.

From highest to lowest wRC+
196
153
144
140
128
128
121
120
119 / 84
Wabs
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Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:

I think getting both hitters would cost less than Castillo plus the lineup reaches the point of "is this the best lineup ever" conversations.

From highest to lowest wRC+
196
153
144
140
128
128
121
120
119 / 84
Delicious. Will be interesting to see how CF evolves if Chas continues to materially outperform Meyers. I get why we're giving Meyers an extended look, but when the games start to matter, Chas is the better option as of right now.
Buck Compton
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Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Farmer1906
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Yup. Chas is hot right now.

July #s
.308
.429
.577
1.006
189 wRC+
Farmer1906
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Buck Compton said:

Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Exactly. Just look at the minor trade acquisitions we made.

Alvarez
Velander
Cole
Greinke
Pressly
Osuna
McCann
Diaz
Liriano
Maldonado
Sanchez
Raley
Graveman
Montero
Garcia
Maton

You gotta keep it small and simple to preserve the minor league prospects. No big names.
BadAggie
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Farmer1906 said:


Quote:

the Astros have been extremely aggressive and that they will be a better team by Aug. 2.



Lonestar_Ag09
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gigemJTH12 said:

Passan

Willson Contreras
The question about the Chicago Cubs catcher isn't whether he's going to be traded -- that's an inevitability. It's whether his new team keeps him at the position where he has played more than 90% of his games.

Multiple teams, sources said, worry about Contreras -- who is not known for his game-calling acumen -- meshing with a new pitching staff on the fly.
So personally my read on that is....Maldy is going nowhere. That description is not one who the Astros will play for significant time behind the plate, and especially not in playoff games when every pitch is potentially due or die.

He would be acquired as an extra bat with a few extra games behind the plate to keep Maldy fresh
Lonestar_Ag09
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Farmer1906 said:

Buck Compton said:

Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Exactly. Just look at the minor trade acquisitions we made.

Alvarez
Velander
Cole
Greinke
Pressly
Osuna
McCann
Diaz
Liriano
Maldonado
Sanchez
Raley
Graveman
Montero
Garcia
Maton

You gotta keep it small and simple to preserve the minor league prospects. No big names.
That response is a bit obtuse. Majority of those were not expensive and MOST were names folks on here didnt even know before trade season sprung up
EastCoastAgNc
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Buck Compton said:

Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Exactly. Just look at the minor trade acquisitions we made.

Alvarez
Velander
Cole
Greinke
Pressly
Osuna
McCann
Diaz
Liriano
Maldonado
Sanchez
Raley
Graveman
Montero
Garcia
Maton

You gotta keep it small and simple to preserve the minor league prospects. No big names.
That response is a bit obtuse. Majority of those were not expensive and MOST were names folks on here didnt even know before trade season sprung up
Yeah, who had ever heard of Justin Verlander, Gerritt Cole, Zach Greinke, Brian McCann, Kendall Graveman, Roberto Osuna or Francisco Liriano before we traded for them? What a bunch of nobodies.
Red Five
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Buck Compton said:

Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Exactly. Just look at the minor trade acquisitions we made.

Alvarez
Velander
Cole
Greinke
Pressly
Osuna
McCann
Diaz
Liriano
Maldonado
Sanchez
Raley
Graveman
Montero
Garcia
Maton

You gotta keep it small and simple to preserve the minor league prospects. No big names.
That response is a bit obtuse. Majority of those were not expensive and MOST were names folks on here didnt even know before trade season sprung up
We traded 3 of our top 5 prospects at the time for Greinke. He had 2 more years of control, so we wouldnt do that for a rental player, but they traded a lot of their future, at the time, for a guy on the downside of his career.
kegstand
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Had a lot of fun recording this episode! If you guys are interested, I appreciate the support, but otherwise I'll stop posting here, I don't want to be the spam with a podcast guy

Lonestar_Ag09
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EastCoastAgNc said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Buck Compton said:

Wabs said:

Get Bell and Castillo and let's roll
I love the trade deadline.

How many times does management need to emphasize that it won't trade long-term competitiveness for a one-off shot at a title before it sinks in for most of you?
Exactly. Just look at the minor trade acquisitions we made.

Alvarez
Velander
Cole
Greinke
Pressly
Osuna
McCann
Diaz
Liriano
Maldonado
Sanchez
Raley
Graveman
Montero
Garcia
Maton

You gotta keep it small and simple to preserve the minor league prospects. No big names.
That response is a bit obtuse. Majority of those were not expensive and MOST were names folks on here didnt even know before trade season sprung up
Yeah, who had ever heard of Justin Verlander, Gerritt Cole, Zach Greinke, Brian McCann, Kendall Graveman, Roberto Osuna or Francisco Liriano before we traded for them? What a bunch of nobodies.
Again being obtuse...I said most. So JV and Greinke don't count obviously. Cole was an off season trade so that doesn't count in the current discussion anyways, McCann was also an offseason trade.

Graveman cost us Toro who was blocked and hasn't produced since. He also came with Monterro who I fully believe was the Astros biggest target, many in baseball considered Graveman washed up.

Liriano was a bad trade, cost us way more than it should have and did nothing for us.

Osuna Trade was more to get rid of Giles and definitely cant be considered "trading away the future"
Red Five
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I don't think you can say Greinke doesn't count. The Astros had a historically good lineup in 2019, plus Verlander and Cole dealing on the mound. It was clear they were front runners for the WS and they pushed a good number of chips to the middle of the table to try to secure it. I think we can look at 2022 pretty comparably, with the strength of the team weighted towards pitching this time. We are the front runners in the AL to reach the WS. If we add some pieces to the lineup, we make that even more likely.
Deluxe
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I sometimes wonder if we brought in Greinke thinking that our nerds could make him better (like they did w JV/Cole), but quickly realized after acquiring him that he's a strange dude who pitches his own way and really can't be tinkered with much.
Lonestar_Ag09
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That was in reference that he didn't count as a guy who nobody knew...He was a big trade and he had a high trade cost...but he had an extra year, without that it wouldn't have been done. And the prospects we traded haven't exploded and come back to bit us in the butt for trading them.
EastCoastAgNc
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Deluxe said:

I sometimes wonder if we brought in Greinke thinking that our nerds could make him better (like they did w JV/Cole), but quickly realized after acquiring him that he's a strange dude who pitches his own way and really can't be tinkered with much.
I think they wanted a change of pace guy. Verlander and Cole were power pitchers. Miley (at the time before he cratered) was a different look as a lefty. Sanchez was a project that ended up being a walking injury. Greinke was a variety guy with lots of changing speeds and unpredictability for the hitters.
Red Five
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Which of our prospects now are going to blow up and come back to haunt us? Could be some, could be none. They're just prospects. Point is, the front office has been willing to give up a lot if they think it makes sense.
Harry Dunne
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:


Liriano was a bad trade, cost us way more than it should have and did nothing for us.

Definitely a bad trade long-term. Certainly would have been nice to have Teoscar all these years.

But I look at trades a different way. All I care about is:

1. Did we win the World Series? Yes
2. Did we trade away our future to do it? Obviously not

You also have to look at all the trades together and not just the few that ended up looking bad. In order to make great trades you have to take some risks, and when you take risks some are not going to work out. The total body of work trade-wise of that regime is outstanding.

It's funny that everyone sees the Cole trade as such a great victory and I mean yes, we got 2 years of a CYA caliber guy for much less than that. But did we win a WS? So looking back at it, you can make an argument that maybe if we keep Musgrove we might still have him. Either way we can't fire up the DeLorean and see "what if?", but the main point is that you have to look at the entire body of work and what came of that trading approach and not just one trade that "didn't work out" (or did it?).
Lonestar_Ag09
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Red Five said:

Which of our prospects now are going to blow up and come back to haunt us? Could be some, could be none. They're just prospects. Point is, the front office has been willing to give up a lot if they think it makes sense.
I personally believe Hunter would bite us in the butt, not in that he will come back to beat us but be a great arm who would have helped.

I also believe Leon is one of those guys.

I think Whitaker might be our next Tucker...even though he is struggling big time at the moment
texasaggie2015
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Ken Rosenthal on The Athletic:

Quote:

Nationals first baseman Josh Bell remains a priority for the Astros. The Nats are likely to move Bell before right fielder Juan Soto, if they move Soto at all. The Astros also are exploring the addition of another catcher as Jason Castro recovers slowly from a left-knee issue.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Harry Dunne said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:


Liriano was a bad trade, cost us way more than it should have and did nothing for us.

Definitely a bad trade long-term. Certainly would have been nice to have Teoscar all these years.

But I look at trades a different way. All I care about is:

1. Did we win the World Series? Yes
2. Did we trade away our future to do it? Obviously not

You also have to look at all the trades together and not just the few that ended up looking bad. In order to make great trades you have to take some risks, and when you take risks some are not going to work out. The total body of work trade-wise of that regime is outstanding.

It's funny that everyone sees the Cole trade as such a great victory and I mean yes, we got 2 years of a CYA caliber guy for much less than that. But did we win a WS? So looking back at it, you can make an argument that maybe if we keep Musgrove we might still have him. Either way we can't fire up the DeLorean and see "what if?", but the main point is that you have to look at the entire body of work and what came of that trading approach and not just one trade that "didn't work out" (or did it?).

You can not look at MLB trades and just judge "did you win a WS" on if it was good/bad. By that measure 99.99% of trades were bad because only 1 team wins it every year.

Liriano especially, the dude wasn't even on the playoff roster was he?
Lonestar_Ag09
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My biggest thing is I really hope we clear some 40 man space with whatever trades we make... the list below need to be included. For instance one of them is getting DFA'ed anyways if we trade lower guys for Bell.

Bermudez
Solomon
Jones
Perez
Goodrum
Siri
Mathguy64
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AG
Been nice knowing you Niko.
EastCoastAgNc
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Mathguy64 said:

Been nice knowing you Niko.

Any team who takes Niko in a trade is getting fleeced. I don't care if they are only sending back a load of laundry.
Red Five
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Red Five said:

Which of our prospects now are going to blow up and come back to haunt us? Could be some, could be none. They're just prospects. Point is, the front office has been willing to give up a lot if they think it makes sense.
I personally believe Hunter would bite us in the butt, not in that he will come back to beat us but be a great arm who would have helped.

I also believe Leon is one of those guys.

I think Whitaker might be our next Tucker...even though he is struggling big time at the moment
I agree with you on HB for sure. At the 2019 deadline we told everyone Tucker was not an option, I'm sure we have guys now that will not be available.
Harry Dunne
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Farmer1906 said:

Yup. Chas is hot right now.

July #s
.308
.429
.577
1.006
189 wRC+

I have always been a Chas guy. I think he has enough of a body of work at this point that we know what he is, and he's got his prime coming up.

He's very underrated defensively because he's not flashy, but he's 85th percentile in OOA & 94th in OF Jump.

You give that guy 150 starts and he's going to be a 30 HR guy who continues to OPS .750-.800 and plays excellent CF defense. His numbers might drop a bit if he's out of a platoon and sees more RHP, but 70%+ of his career ABs have been against RHP, and that's about in line with the total percentage of RHP in baseball. Dusty hasn't played him to his strenghts. Shocking.

I'll leave you with this: Chas' OPS would put him 9th among MLB CF if he had enough PA to qualify. He makes $700K. He's under team control through 2026.

Harry Dunne
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You're taking what I said out of context and you know it.

If you won a WS, especially if you didn't give up the future to do it, then you can't rip on one trade that ended up bad long-term without considering the other trades.

Because we wouldn't have won the WS but not for some of the great trades and you can't have ALL great trades.
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