***** Official 2022 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

5,444,503 Views | 83072 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Harry Dunne
Lonestar_Ag09
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AG
Deluxe said:

A couple things:

1) There's a difference between defensive ability behind the plate and game calling ability. I'm perfectly ok with the idea that Contreras can match (or even exceed) Maldy in terms of framing, passed ball %, etc.

2) I'm not saying Contreras can't call a game because I honestly don't know how hard he works, preps, what each Cubs pitcher thinks about him, how many games the Cubs won/lost with his adjustments, etc, but the reasons for thinking Maldy is elite go well beyond "trust me bro". Here's what Alex Cora said after the ALCS last year:

Quote:

"They made adjustments," Cora said. "Their catcher is really good. He's really good. He did it last year. He's done it in previous years. He gets out of his script and that's something that's very impressive. Obviously, teams pitch to the blue and the red and whatever they pitch to the blue. He gets out of the script when he feels he has to do it.

I suppose it's more "trust experts" than "trust bros". Here's another good article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/26/sports/baseball/martin-maldonado-astros-world-series.html

Quote:

Valdez, who will start Game 1 for the Astros, said Maldonado had taught him how to pitch, and how to read batters' swings and reactions for clues of how to get them out. He said Maldonado had sat him down before starts to go over his previous game pitch by pitch. And it helps that Maldonado doesn't need a teammate or coach or interpreter to serve as a language intermediary on or off the mound.

"During games, he just comes up by himself," Valdez said. "That way others don't have to translate and I don't get messed up. And even with the gestures he makes behind the plate, I know what I have to do."

Before last year's A.L.C.S. against the Tampa Bay Rays, during which the Astros fell one win short of another World Series trip, Maldonado sat with relievers Enoli Paredes and Javier at the team hotel and walked them through the tendencies of each rival hitter.

Castro, who is in his 11th major-league season, said he and Maldonado had come up in an era of baseball where catchers sifted through their own statistics and video to prepare for games, compared to now, when teams have several people dedicated to producing detailed reports. He said Maldonado's preparation was "on another level."

"If we're on the road, I've been to his room and he's up in the morning studying," Kendeall Graveman said of Maldonado.

When the Astros are in Houston, Maldonado spends his time at home with his children, Graveman said. But when at the stadium or on the road, Maldonado is glued to the screen.

"If we're on the road, I've been to his room and he's up in the morning studying," Graveman said. "And that's also during the season, not just in the postseason. And it's something that no one notices if you're not inside."

When on the mound, Pressly said "98 percent of time" he throws whatever pitch Maldonado signals. Valdez estimated that the number was lower for himself. Graveman said Maldonado tells him that because he is the one throwing the ball, he ultimately has the final say. Whatever Maldonado can do at the plate himself is secondary.

It's hard to put a value on that stuff. But there is value, even if it's not perfectly captured in stats. I think the analysis of how you weigh all that versus what Contreras brings is EXTREMELY complicated. Our baseball ops guys have given me zero reason to not trust them though.
Quoting because a single blue Star isn't enough. Intangibles get it done in baseball. Nothing in those quotes can be measured or quantified. Nothing that Maldy just "does" can be either, or little things he might say in a key moment off handed walking off the field or in a 1on1 mound visit. Catchers are just different and at a point where his pitchers want him and his pitchers are producing for him and with him I don't want to touch it.

Moneyball made a joke out of scouts but there are plenty of things that they watch in a player and can just see and know, and while they dont always hit on every one those, evaluations help. Sure for every 100 players they evaluate who "do it the right way" some might not make it. And some guys who make it might be show boats and cocky and do some shady stuff end up being great. Maldy has the intangibles, he does it the right way and that is the reason he is a heavy set light hitting player who has still managed to make it 10 years in the pros and every players/coach around him sings his praises
Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:


As you already somewhat said in an earlier post. Why can't he do that not as the primary catcher? Is he going to stop working and helping the team because he's the backup?

Keep in mind there is a difference in effort and value. I could spend 24 hours a day pouring over data, video, etc, and then some nerd could do the same thing better in 1 hour. 20 minutes.

Regardless of how this all shakes out, Maldy is going to be a huge asset on Joe's staff in a couple of years.
I don't know to what extent he can. That's part of what makes comparing him and Contreras extremely complicated. No one on this thread has enough info to really compare the pros and cons or each.

My two cents is you could probably make a case either way. I would think there's alot to be gained from being live and present behind the plate. Seeing how each pitch looks from that reference point, seeing how each batter reacts to each pitch, etc. Makes it much easier for him to process and implement new info on the fly.
Johnsy3
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https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/07/yankees-dilemma-isnt-trading-for-juan-soto-its-beating-jose-altuve-and-the-astros-klapisch.html

New York is already panicking about the Astros knocking them out of the playoffs
redline248
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We aren't talking about scouts vs analytics for unknown prospects. These are established major leaguers with track records. I think Click and the nerds know what they'd be getting from Contreras.

And this comment "intangibles get it done in the playoffs." No they don't. Just look at last year's WS. Hitting the ball got it done, and the Astros not hitting the ball was not because they had worse intangibles.
Panama Red
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SIAD:

While #1 seed with home field is always best, looking at potential matchup, the #2 seed appears to have the better route to the LCS. As of today:


(1) NYY v. winner: (4) TOR v (5) TB
(2) HOU v. winner: (3) MIN v (6) SEA

(1) LAD v. winner (4) ATL v. (5) SD
(2) NYM v winner (3) MIL v. (6) STL
Lonestar_Ag09
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If you wouldn't mind could you give Click, JV, McCullers, Framber and Luis a call real quick and let them know to pull the trigger, Contreras hits better and it has been decided he's therefore better.
Verne Lundquist
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I know I'm probably the only one but could we somehow get rid of bregman cause he's been sucking and I have no patience for him since he's LSU

/rant over
cc10106
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I think I would prefer to avoid the TOR-TB winner in the ALDS over having home field, although potentially giving NY one less game in the Bronx to screw us at the plate like they tried to do during the no-no would be a huge plus.

I know this team will be ready for either scenario and won't be fazed wherever they play.
Farmer1906
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Me reading this thread the last 24 hours.









Lonestar_Ag09
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EastCoastAgNc said:


Verne did you miss this....your definition of suck and mine are different
texasaggie2015
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Verne Lundquist said:

I know I'm probably the only one but could we somehow get rid of bregman cause he's been sucking and I have no patience for him since he's LSU

/rant over
Dude has turned it around in a big way recently.
cc10106
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Verne Lundquist said:

I know I'm probably the only one but could we somehow get rid of bregman cause he's been sucking and I have no patience for him since he's LSU

/rant over


LSU has more or less been the standard for college baseball for decades now, Bregman has obviously turned it around after slumping. People tend to forget he started the season hot while others were struggling as well.
Mathguy64
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I wake up late to see 628 new pages in the last 8 hours and wonder what catastrophe occurred only to read it's an argument over a catcher. At least it's not arguing about using Seth in the 8th.

Seriously, whatever moves Click makes will 100% be based first and foremost on Brantley's shoulder and Yordan's hand. I still don't think they have been completely up front about that hand. Not that they have to be. But if they know there is something bad in those injuries they have to address them in the next week.
kegstand
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Mathguy64 said:

I wake up late to see 628 new pages in the last 8 hours and wonder what catastrophe occurred only to read it's an argument over a catcher. At least it's not arguing about using Seth in the 8th.

Seriously, whatever moves Click makes will 100% be based first and foremost on Brantley's shoulder and Yordan's hand. I still don't think they have been completely up front about that hand. Not that they have to be. But if they know there is something bad in those injuries they have to address them in the next week.
Definitely think at this point with Yordan it's a hamate issue. The question is, keep playing him limited or just get the surgery now and see ya in September? 5-8 weeks..
redline248
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It's amazing to me
EastCoastAgNc
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Here's an ump show
texasaggie2015
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EastCoastAgNc said:


Here's an ump show
Am I the only one that thinks this was staged?
Deluxe
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If your post is referring to my rebuttals to your Contreras idea, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I just think the decision to relegate Maldy is complicated.
Beerosch
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Farmer1906 said:

Why is everyone assuming Contreras couldn't call a game?

It's not significant, but both Lee and Castro have a lower ERA & OPS when catching this season. Going back to '21 Castro and Maldy had the same ERA (Castro had a lower OPS) and Stubbs was better than both.

Per stat cast, both Maldy & Contreras has the same poor pitch framing this year. Maldy was slightly better in '21 and Contreras better in '20.

This year, they have the same pop time of 1.92 (near the top of the league).

Go more simple and look at passed balls. Maldy leads the league with 8 in 609.2 innings while Contreras has 3 in 432.

I could do this all day. Defensive Runs Saves. Both at -4. Neither has been great.

I just don't see how anyone can justify why Maldonado is close to as valuable as Contreras besides "trust me bro".
EXACTLY. Contreras is head and shoulders better with the bat. There is no doubt Contreras would be starting here over Maldy if we got him. People on here are just using the Maldy "calls a good game", "is the heart and soul of this team", etc so they can justify his crappy bat. He's been hitting much better lately, but he was so damn bad until lately. The hoops this board jumps through to justify keeping him as our first string catcher are mind boggling. Yogi Berra in his prime could walk through the door and half of this board would still want Maldonado catching.
AggiEE
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Beerosch said:

Farmer1906 said:

Why is everyone assuming Contreras couldn't call a game?

It's not significant, but both Lee and Castro have a lower ERA & OPS when catching this season. Going back to '21 Castro and Maldy had the same ERA (Castro had a lower OPS) and Stubbs was better than both.

Per stat cast, both Maldy & Contreras has the same poor pitch framing this year. Maldy was slightly better in '21 and Contreras better in '20.

This year, they have the same pop time of 1.92 (near the top of the league).

Go more simple and look at passed balls. Maldy leads the league with 8 in 609.2 innings while Contreras has 3 in 432.

I could do this all day. Defensive Runs Saves. Both at -4. Neither has been great.

I just don't see how anyone can justify why Maldonado is close to as valuable as Contreras besides "trust me bro".
EXACTLY. Contreras is head and shoulders better with the bat. There is no doubt Contreras would be starting here over Maldy if we got him. People on here are just using the Maldy "calls a good game", "is the heart and soul of this team", etc so they can justify his crappy bat. He's been hitting much better lately, but he was so damn bad until lately. The hoops this board jumps through to justify keeping him as our first string catcher are mind boggling. Yogi Berra in his prime could walk through the door and half of this board would still want Maldonado catching.


Agreed

No way we trade good prospects for one of the best catchers in the game only to have him be the backup

Makes literally zero sense
Deluxe
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Beerosch said:

EXACTLY. Contreras is head and shoulders better with the bat. There is no doubt Contreras would be starting here over Maldy if we got him. People on here are just using the Maldy "calls a good game", "is the heart and soul of this team", etc so they can justify his crappy bat. He's been hitting much better lately, but he was so damn bad until lately. The hoops this board jumps through to justify keeping him as our first string catcher are mind boggling. Yogi Berra in his prime could walk through the door and half of this board would still want Maldonado catching.

Last year Castro was head and shoulders better than Maldy with the bat, yet we still rolled with Maldy in every game that mattered. Ever wonder why?

AGAIN, I'm not saying we should or shouldn't try to snag Contreras. But the decision to shove Maldy aside is much more complicated than people on here are making it.
Harry Dunne
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Verne Lundquist said:

I know I'm probably the only one but could we somehow get rid of bregman cause he's been sucking and I have no patience for him since he's LSU

/rant over
  • He's 8th among all MLB 3B in WAR (2.4)
  • He's on pace for a 4 WAR season - something that in Astros history only Morgan Ensberg has ever done among 3b
  • So if he stays healthy & just keeps the mediocre by Breggy standards season he's had so far, he's having a top-5 all-time Astros 3b season (Top 3 if you don't count his previous seasons)
  • Farmer1906
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    Deluxe said:

    If your post is referring to my rebuttals to your Contreras idea, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I just think the decision to relegate Maldy is complicated.
    It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. In general, I don't think there are enough little things in the world to close the gap between Contreras and Maldy on paper. One thing that isn't being considered is what Contreras brings not on paper. He's a firey dude with passion and a leader. Cubs fans / writers talk about him as being the heart and soul of their team. We could end up with something special. I really hope Click goes all in here.
    Ag_07
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    By all in I'm assuming you mean lands Contreras and Bell.

    They're both rentals so I think both will be cheap, both fill areas of need, and both make this offense complete.
    n_touch
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    Anyone else find in mildly amusing that we got Maldy from the Cubs when he was backing up Contreras and three years later he can be in the same situation?
    redline248
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    AggiEE said:

    Beerosch said:

    Farmer1906 said:

    Why is everyone assuming Contreras couldn't call a game?

    It's not significant, but both Lee and Castro have a lower ERA & OPS when catching this season. Going back to '21 Castro and Maldy had the same ERA (Castro had a lower OPS) and Stubbs was better than both.

    Per stat cast, both Maldy & Contreras has the same poor pitch framing this year. Maldy was slightly better in '21 and Contreras better in '20.

    This year, they have the same pop time of 1.92 (near the top of the league).

    Go more simple and look at passed balls. Maldy leads the league with 8 in 609.2 innings while Contreras has 3 in 432.

    I could do this all day. Defensive Runs Saves. Both at -4. Neither has been great.

    I just don't see how anyone can justify why Maldonado is close to as valuable as Contreras besides "trust me bro".
    EXACTLY. Contreras is head and shoulders better with the bat. There is no doubt Contreras would be starting here over Maldy if we got him. People on here are just using the Maldy "calls a good game", "is the heart and soul of this team", etc so they can justify his crappy bat. He's been hitting much better lately, but he was so damn bad until lately. The hoops this board jumps through to justify keeping him as our first string catcher are mind boggling. Yogi Berra in his prime could walk through the door and half of this board would still want Maldonado catching.


    Agreed

    No way we trade good prospects for one of the best catchers in the game only to have him be the backup

    Makes literally zero sense
    The only thing, and unfortunately it's a big deal, is the Dusty factor. I have zero doubt in my mind that he would still pencil Maldy into the lineup 4 or 5 times a week
    W
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    AG
    one funny thing about Bregman...he's one of the guys that shows up vs. the great teams...and relaxes vs. the bad ones.

    in the past 10 days:

    1 for 11 vs. Oakland

    4 for 8 with 3 RBI in the doubleheader vs. the Yankees

    2 for 13 vs. Seattle
    cc10106
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    I think getting Bell would be enough to upgrade the offense, but I'm also hesitant to mess with Maldy's PT in any way. I want him leading this team on the field, but I haven't seen anything to think he would be any less of a team player than he's always been should Contreras end up here as well. He's basically a player-coach at this point.
    BadAggie
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    AG
    TexAgs needs 20 pages to figure out that replacing Castro with Contreras is a good thing. SMH
    Deluxe
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    Farmer1906 said:

    Deluxe said:

    If your post is referring to my rebuttals to your Contreras idea, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I just think the decision to relegate Maldy is complicated.
    It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. In general, I don't think there are enough little things in the world to close the gap between Contreras and Maldy on paper. One thing that isn't being considered is what Contreras brings not on paper. He's a firey dude with passion and a leader. Cubs fans / writers talk about him as being the heart and soul of their team. We could end up with something special. I really hope Click goes all in here.
    I guess our difference is that I don't see Maldy's value-add as "little things". I'll grant you that some of the qualities his teammates speak of (ie work ethic, being a good clubhouse presence, etc) are little things.

    But I probably see more value than you in our pitchers being able to fully trust him on what what to throw when (Pressly's words, not mine), which allows them to focus executing pitches and not waste any energy contemplating how to attack each hitter. I see value in Maldy's ability to shift the dynamics of a series with in-game adjustments (Alex Cora's words, not mine). Etc.

    AGAIN, I'm not saying Contreras' attributes don't balance that out. I just don't think those are little things that can thoughtlessly be brushed aside.
    W
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    oh, in the 2021 postseason...

    Machete was a dreadful 6 for 46 at the plate.

    playing with fire to just write that off for the 2022 postseason
    cc10106
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    W said:

    oh, in the 2021 postseason...

    Machete was a dreadful 6 for 46 at the plate.

    playing with fire to just write that off for the 2022 postseason
    And most of the team was dreadful when it mattered most against ATL.
    Farmer1906
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    cc10106 said:

    W said:

    oh, in the 2021 postseason...

    Machete was a dreadful 6 for 46 at the plate.

    playing with fire to just write that off for the 2022 postseason
    And most of the team was dreadful when it mattered most against ATL.
    2021 Postseason
    .130
    .196
    .130
    .327
    Mathguy64
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    BadAggie said:

    TexAgs needs 20 pages to figure out that replacing Castro with Contreras is a good thing. SMH


    You keep saying that like it's real. It's not. The trade possibility isn't about replacing Castro with Contreras. It's about whether you replace Machete with Contreras. You aren't putting Contreras at 1B. He's played there less that 10 games in his career. OF? He's logged less than 20 innings in the OF in 4 years. It's DH or C and last I looked we have a DH. That's Yordan and/or Brantley when healthy.

    If you trade for Contreras you are playing him not sitting on the bench in Castro's warm seat. That means he takes Machete's spot. Or he's the DH because one of Brantley or Yordan cannot go.
    BadAggie
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    AG
    Then you also have the option to give him ABs at DH and you have more options than Castro gives you.

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