Fanatics is having a pretty big sale today. Look there.
***** Official 2022 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
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Last: 2 yr ago by Harry Dunne
Farmer1906 said:
He's doing a lot right. His quality contact, K%, & BB% is not too dissimilar from 2019. I think the dead balls are in play for sure, but I also think 2019 was the perfect storm for him.
Here are his hits with >15 LA & <45 LA.
2019 / 2022
C'mon now...You've been around here long enough to know if it's a Farmer post there's most likely math involved.
In my head I'm imagining Bagwell responding to TK. I imagine it would go something like this.
"How many runs scored? That's what I thought".
Or
"Where's he standing? Oh in the dugout."
"How many runs scored? That's what I thought".
Or
"Where's he standing? Oh in the dugout."
The point of it all, Bregman is doing the same things he was doing in 2018-19.Ag_07 said:
C'mon now...You've been around here long enough to know if it's a Farmer post there's most likely math involved.
He's not striking out more.
He's not walking less.
He's hitting the ball about as hard as he ever has.
He's getting the ball in the air more (not a bunch of ground balls like last year)
His expected numbers are as good as they've ever been.
I wouldn't sweat his OPS being as low as it is. Part of that is the bad ball. His OPS+ is slightly better than the last 2 years and his rookie year even though his OPS isn't. On the flip side, I wouldn't ever expect him to replicate 2019 or even 2018.
I'm convinced that Bregman's problem is he can't put the cheating scandal exposure behind him. The swagger and arrogance he had from 17-19 is gone. No pitcher fears him. It's like when people found out he was profiting at the plate off a system, even if it was no longer in use, a part of his attitude died. I used to put him up there in the same category of a guy like Bruce Bowen from the Spurs - you love him on your team, but you know you'd hate his guts on another team.
Injury or not, his numbers pale in comparison to the $30.5 million that's going to kick in for 2023 and 2024. Since the start of 2020, he's played in 221 games and has 29 home runs and 123 RBI to show for it. In 2019 he played 156 games and had 41 HR and 112 RBI.
First three full seasons of his career he hit .284, .286, .296. Since then it's been .242, .270, .238. All of the deep-dive analytics are great, but he's not getting the job done of driving in runs and scoring runs at a rate commiserate with being one of our top-paid players. You can't build a winning club when you're sinking $30 million into a guy who hits 18 home runs, drives in 75 and hits .240. Not to mention he was a ghost in the ALCS and WS last year, as well as in the 2020 ALCS.
If he didn't have the 2017 World Series win and the 2019 should-have-been MVP pedigree, I think a lot more fans would be wondering how we can dump his contract.
Injury or not, his numbers pale in comparison to the $30.5 million that's going to kick in for 2023 and 2024. Since the start of 2020, he's played in 221 games and has 29 home runs and 123 RBI to show for it. In 2019 he played 156 games and had 41 HR and 112 RBI.
First three full seasons of his career he hit .284, .286, .296. Since then it's been .242, .270, .238. All of the deep-dive analytics are great, but he's not getting the job done of driving in runs and scoring runs at a rate commiserate with being one of our top-paid players. You can't build a winning club when you're sinking $30 million into a guy who hits 18 home runs, drives in 75 and hits .240. Not to mention he was a ghost in the ALCS and WS last year, as well as in the 2020 ALCS.
If he didn't have the 2017 World Series win and the 2019 should-have-been MVP pedigree, I think a lot more fans would be wondering how we can dump his contract.
yes, that's the issue.
Bregman's salary kicks up to $30 MM in 2023.
at $30 MM he needs to play like an all-star (like Altuve is doing this year with his $29 MM salary)
Bregman's salary kicks up to $30 MM in 2023.
at $30 MM he needs to play like an all-star (like Altuve is doing this year with his $29 MM salary)
the situation is somewhat similar to Correa's season with the Twins right now.
Carlos is having an "okay" year -- a decent year -- but at $35 MM per season...
the Twins need a whole lot more than 33 RBI and .803 OPS at the break.
he needs to be a superstar at that kind of salary
Carlos is having an "okay" year -- a decent year -- but at $35 MM per season...
the Twins need a whole lot more than 33 RBI and .803 OPS at the break.
he needs to be a superstar at that kind of salary
have to be careful here...
the #1 reason folks are promoting Yordan for MVP (over Judge) is his big lead in OPS.
it's a very important stat
the #1 reason folks are promoting Yordan for MVP (over Judge) is his big lead in OPS.
it's a very important stat
1. this thread has better baseball conversation than just about anywhere.
2. Bregman is a sunk cost for now, seems like there's no way he shouldn't be expecting a reduced contract when he's 30.
3. (I think) altuve becomes a free agent the same year as bregman? Would you expect him to take a pay cut in what is likely his last contract? Maybe short but high AAV?
Ok, Ill hang up and listen.
2. Bregman is a sunk cost for now, seems like there's no way he shouldn't be expecting a reduced contract when he's 30.
3. (I think) altuve becomes a free agent the same year as bregman? Would you expect him to take a pay cut in what is likely his last contract? Maybe short but high AAV?
Ok, Ill hang up and listen.
Dusty Baker bought suits for all the Astros coaches. They look dapper pic.twitter.com/KchsLtTvh5
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) July 18, 2022
HR Derby picks for tonight
Alonso +175, no chance that is good value vs this field
Alonso +175, no chance that is good value vs this field
#Astros select RHP Michael Knorr (@michaelkn0rr) from Coastal Carolina in the 3rd rd (103rd). He had a 3.39 ERA w/ 86 K, just 13 BB in 69 IP last season. He was at Cal St. Fullerton prior to CC. Houston will have every 30th selection (103, 133, 163, etc.) the rest of the draft.
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) July 18, 2022
astros4545 said:
HR Derby picks for tonight
Alonso +175, no chance that is good value vs this field
I did some fun prop bets. Over under longest homerun tonight at 491.5 feet.
The #Astros selected Trey Dombroski with their 4th round pick. The big lefty had some insane numbers at Monmouth University with 14 BB/120 K in 95 innings. He performed well in the Cape Cod league too with a 0.85 ERA and 2 BB/45 K in 31.2 innings.
— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) July 18, 2022
Yes and no. Its a nice stat that the average fan can understand, but it's not the end all be all. OPS counts OBP and SLG as equal when OBP is probably more important than pure SLG. So a slugger is going to have the end over someone who doesn't hit for as much power, but gets on base.W said:
have to be careful here...
the #1 reason folks are promoting Yordan for MVP (over Judge) is his big lead in OPS.
it's a very important stat
wOBA, OPS+, wRC+ all probably gauge a hitter value better.
The three pitchers the Astros have taken had impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios in college.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 18, 2022
Andrew Taylor: 126 strikeouts, 27 walks in 84 innings
Michael Knorr: 86 strikeouts, 13 walks in 69 innings
Trey Dombroski: 120 strikeouts, 14 walks in 95 innings.
for whatever it’s worth Gilbert is slotting right into number 2 in the Astros system and Melton is probably at 6. I have to do more homework on Taylor but the project status makes me think late-teens tier 3 type somewhere until the theoretical velo bump becomes real
— Ben 🏁 (@midzee4) July 18, 2022
He got shelled until he saw the velo bump because it’s not any sort of special fastball shape, so it’ll need to be parked in the mid 90s to stay effective. But + control and 4 pitches, nice backend starter profile with some ceiling dependent on fastball and slider progression.
— Ben 🏁 (@midzee4) July 18, 2022
Dombroski at 133. Command lefty(!) with four average pitches that all play up due to the impeccable command. FB in the low 90s. Dominated the cape. Seems like the Astros might be content to just pay slot the whole way through this draft, expected one HS upside shot by now.
— Ben 🏁 (@midzee4) July 18, 2022
Farmer1906 said:The three pitchers the Astros have taken had impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios in college.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 18, 2022
Andrew Taylor: 126 strikeouts, 27 walks in 84 innings
Michael Knorr: 86 strikeouts, 13 walks in 69 innings
Trey Dombroski: 120 strikeouts, 14 walks in 95 innings.
They are all 6'5" also.
The #Astros selected Nolan DeVos with their 5th round pick. The right hander struck out 106 in 78.2 innings for Davidson. #LevelUp
— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) July 18, 2022
Several years ago it was suggested that OBP*SLG was better than OBP+SLG. It smooths out the variation. But it's obviously not as easy to calculate by just looking.Farmer1906 said:Yes and no. Its a nice stat that the average fan can understand, but it's not the end all be all. OPS counts OBP and SLG as equal when OBP is probably more important than pure SLG. So a slugger is going to have the end over someone who doesn't hit for as much power, but gets on base.W said:
have to be careful here...
the #1 reason folks are promoting Yordan for MVP (over Judge) is his big lead in OPS.
it's a very important stat
wOBA, OPS+, wRC+ all probably gauge a hitter value better.
Stros going to heavy on college prospects thus far. Is this to restock the pipeline as quickly as possible and look to next year or international for longer term development projects?
IIRC They've done this the past few years. I don't think there is enough data on HS prospects so they tend to lean towards the more known and quantifiable prospects.
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3B Paul 97 said:
Stros going to heavy on college prospects thus far. Is this to restock the pipeline as quickly as possible and look to next year or international for longer term development projects?
I think they're going to do this to extend the window as much as possible. Get the polished college guys and get them to the bigs faster and have more roster flexibility. We're going to have to continually churn out homegrown talent to fill out the roster if we're going to hold big contracts for 5-6 superstars.
Personally it doesn't surprise me, If you think about that we are an organization that tends to use guys maybe a slight extension and then cut them loose...it makes sense to draft guys that are a bit more developed. A little more of a known quantity and can be contributors quicker.3B Paul 97 said:
Stros going to heavy on college prospects thus far. Is this to restock the pipeline as quickly as possible and look to next year or international for longer term development projects?
Then you add that in with how well we do internationally with younger guys to develop...who at times can be resigned cheaper.
Agree with both of yall.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
i'd rather win 95+ every year than overpay aging stars and reminisce about how good they used to beFarmer1906 said:
Agree with both of yall.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
https://ts.la/eric59704
07ag said:i'd rather win 95+ every year than overpay aging stars and reminisce about how good they used to beFarmer1906 said:
Agree with both of yall.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
Keep that same energy when it comes time for Altuve's next deal.
seems the trend across baseball is to draft college kids over high school kids. Early rounds seem to e more college kids
07ag said:i'd rather win 95+ every year than overpay aging stars and reminisce about how good they used to beFarmer1906 said:
Agree with both of yall.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
Agree with all of this. I like the sustainability. Are there any of these mega deals that have been worth the money after year 5 or 6 (which seems to be the Stros threshold)? I can't think of any.
We just drafted a 6'6" catcher. Ouch.
Collin Price at 193. My favorite pick so far from HOU. Senior sign so a little older, underslot $ probably, incredible swing decisions (20% walk rate, Bregman-esque chase rate). 60 raw power, hit tool isn’t lagging, nothing wrong with the defense at all. He shouldn’t be here.
— Ben 🏁 (@midzee4) July 18, 2022
Also thinking more about Juan Soto today and here's what I came up with to talk myself into doing a big trade for him.
Let's assume we're acquiring him for only the next 2 years until he's a FA. Forget about keeping him once he gets the big contract a la Cole. Let's also assume any trade would be headlined by Brown and Lee plus some prospects.
Do we need an OFer this year and the next 2? I say yes especially with Brantley showing his age. You'd have Soto for this year's playoff run and the next 2 years at say $20mm per after arb. The need is there.
Are Lee and Brown replaceable? Lee is for sure replaceable and Brown is to a lesser extent. Like it or not Lee is a backup catcher for the next 2 years or as long as Maldy can catch (lately this has become debatable). This org has shown that they are fine with a catcher who doesn't produce at the plate and they can find those elsewhere. Brown is a bit more difficult because he is ready to be up here but is he blocked? He is right now but I guess not if JV opts out that opens a spot in the rotation.
Giving up Brown and Lee for an OF of Yordan, Tucker, and Soto for this year and the next may actually be worth it. It would take more but really I wouldn't get hung up on adding anyone else.
I think I'd do it assuming he's want to play for a team that isn't gonna pay him 1/2 a billion in 2 years.
Let's assume we're acquiring him for only the next 2 years until he's a FA. Forget about keeping him once he gets the big contract a la Cole. Let's also assume any trade would be headlined by Brown and Lee plus some prospects.
Do we need an OFer this year and the next 2? I say yes especially with Brantley showing his age. You'd have Soto for this year's playoff run and the next 2 years at say $20mm per after arb. The need is there.
Are Lee and Brown replaceable? Lee is for sure replaceable and Brown is to a lesser extent. Like it or not Lee is a backup catcher for the next 2 years or as long as Maldy can catch (lately this has become debatable). This org has shown that they are fine with a catcher who doesn't produce at the plate and they can find those elsewhere. Brown is a bit more difficult because he is ready to be up here but is he blocked? He is right now but I guess not if JV opts out that opens a spot in the rotation.
Giving up Brown and Lee for an OF of Yordan, Tucker, and Soto for this year and the next may actually be worth it. It would take more but really I wouldn't get hung up on adding anyone else.
I think I'd do it assuming he's want to play for a team that isn't gonna pay him 1/2 a billion in 2 years.
Farmer1906 said:Collin Price at 193. My favorite pick so far from HOU. Senior sign so a little older, underslot $ probably, incredible swing decisions (20% walk rate, Bregman-esque chase rate). 60 raw power, hit tool isn’t lagging, nothing wrong with the defense at all. He shouldn’t be here.
— Ben 🏁 (@midzee4) July 18, 2022
This could be a guy who could move to 1B if C doesn't work out?
I think were allowed to do it for one or two.Farmer1906 said:07ag said:i'd rather win 95+ every year than overpay aging stars and reminisce about how good they used to beFarmer1906 said:
Agree with both of yall.
We can get guys up in their early to mid 20s. Have them for 6 years until about 30. Halfway through we extend to early 30s or let them walk. We get a big chunk of their prime without the risk of a long term contract. Its not the worst strategy to win a bunch. Its less fun for the fans who don't get guys for their whole career.
Keep that same energy when it comes time for Altuve's next deal.
Plus he wont be on the same contract level...and it depends what younger whipper snapper is coming up behind him that were delaying because of an aging ineffective Altuve
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