Frok said:

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It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

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It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

Harry Dunne said:

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Frok said:

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It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

Astros-White Sox probables:

Fri: Framber Valdez vs. Lucas Giolito
Sat: Justin Verlander vs Johnny Cueto
Sun: Cristian Javier vs. TBA

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 15, 2022

Which is exactly what someone who is worried about Alex Bregman would say!

James Click said that Alex Bregman’s approach at the plate is the same, but could be a mechanical issue. Specifically getting more power on the pull side. (@SeanUnfiltered show)

“We’re not worried about Alex Bregman”

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) June 15, 2022

The Astros have recalled IF/OF J.J. Matijevic from Triple A Sugar Land and have placed IF Jeremy Peña on the 10-day IL with left thumb discomfort.

— Houston Astros (@astros) June 15, 2022

woof...going to miss some of the Mets-Yankees stretch

I really hope we get the opportunity to see if JJ can replace some of Yuli's production. He has been destroying AAA.

Astros today pic.twitter.com/zcWPqMEgJH

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 15, 2022

I'd say there is a power problem.

Bregman had 80 x-base hits in 2019.

he has 68 x-base hits in 2020, 2021, and 2022...combined --- combined in the last 3 seasons

My hot take on Bregman is he's broken thanks to his woman.

Back when he was raking he lived and breathed baseball and stated on multiple podcasts and videos that he never really did have time for relationships and never really even dated.

Then along came his gal, they dated, got married, got pregnant, and here we are.

The good stuff remains undefeated fellas.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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MaxPower said:

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You have to go back to 2014 to find a team that wasn't top 10 in runs scored who won it all. Even then, the Giants were 12th and in the NL without a DH. We currently reside at 22nd. Certainly there's room for positive regression as our team OPS is top 10 but it's pretty clear the offense is a bigger problem than the pitching, even without the likely returns of Odo and McCullers.

---

Let's look at a few other offensive #s.

BB% - 6th
We draw walks at a high clip

K% - 5th
We don't strike out

AVG - 21st
We don't hit for a great average.

OBP - 14th
Looks like our walks help us out here

SLG - 8th
We got a little pop.

HR - 6th
And it's not just gap power.

wOBA - 10th
Great stat, shows we're still good offensively without hitting for a great avg.

GB/FB - 5th
We're putting the ball in the air.

EV - 12th
Some decent contact, not just "putting it in play"

LA - 5th
More proof we're getting it in the air.

Barrel% - 10th
Not bad.

Hard Hit% - 6th
Very promising

We're not elite, but this mix of stats shows me that we're better than the 22nd-best offense.

And now to the expected stats.

BA - .237
xBA - .269
DIF - (.032) - Highest in baseball

SLG - .408
xSLG - .474
DIF - (.066) - 5th highest in baseball

wOBA - .318
xwOBA - .351
DIF - (.033) 2nd highest in baseball

Positive regression is coming.

---

So are the expected stats based on this year of data only or all years? I honestly don't know but that's my assumption.

Here's my rub with this. I am assuming they are based on all data and the dead ball is affecting this data. The same EV and LA data isn't producing the same result. Hence the differences.

We are now 62 games in. That's a lot of data that has to suddenly regress and normalize. I really think our real stats say what we are. A team that walks and gets on base a lot but doesn't hit well. More correctly we have a significant number of players not hitting well. However we have players with a lot of pop and we hit more than our share of HRs and doubles. So we don't score runs as much by sequencing hits as by relying on a big hit to do the damage. And if we don't get that big pop it stagnates.

---

Ignore the expected stats and look at the fact we hit the ball hard, we hit the ball in the air, and we don't strike out. That alone is going to translate to an improved offense.

It makes the knees weak...

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Frok said:

---

It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

---

Definitely. Being upset with Castro hitting .100 or Bregman turning into Colin Moran is different than saying "this team is broke" and "it's 2009 again".

That said, even saying we are "grossly and serially underperforming" is high drama. I think the O/U on wins preseason was 92.5 and we are on pace for 99!

Are some guys underpeforming? For sure. Others are overperforming. Who had Pena as ROY frontrunner (T&P for his injury) or JV as the CYA favorite? And for sure we have lost some we should have won and could have a better record, but that's true of every team every year.

I believe we are 13-5 in 1-run games. We could have lost a lot of those too. Things have gone our way a lot too.

It looks like we are going to play musical CF until someone really gets it going. Chas was going well for a while, but has cooled off. Eventually someone has to perform well enough to stay out there, right?

Ag_07 said:

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My hot take on Bregman is he's broken thanks to his woman.

Back when he was raking he lived and breathed baseball and stated on multiple podcasts and videos that he never really did have time for relationships and never really even dated.

Then along came his gal, they dated, got married, got pregnant, and here we are.

The good stuff remains undefeated fellas.

---

please explain Verlander

astros4545 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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My hot take on Bregman is he's broken thanks to his woman.

Back when he was raking he lived and breathed baseball and stated on multiple podcasts and videos that he never really did have time for relationships and never really even dated.

Then along came his gal, they dated, got married, got pregnant, and here we are.

The good stuff remains undefeated fellas.

---

please explain Verlander

---

Some guys are built different

redline248 said:

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It looks like we are going to play musical CF until someone really gets it going. Chas was going well for a while, but has cooled off. Eventually someone has to perform well enough to stay out there, right?

---

Astros rookie Jake Meyers sends one to the train tracks 😳🚂

(via @astros)pic.twitter.com/7vS40u4A3W

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 7, 2021

He's not human so the laws of nature do not apply.

Harry Dunne said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

Frok said:

---

It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

---

Definitely. Being upset with Castro hitting .100 or Bregman turning into Colin Moran is different than saying "this team is broke" and "it's 2009 again".

That said, even saying we are "grossly and serially underperforming" is high drama. I think the O/U on wins preseason was 92.5 and we are on pace for 99!

Are some guys underpeforming? For sure. Others are overperforming. Who had Pena as ROY frontrunner (T&P for his injury) or JV as the CYA favorite? And for sure we have lost some we should have won and could have a better record, but that's true of every team every year.

I believe we are 13-5 in 1-run games. We could have lost a lot of those too. Things have gone our way a lot too.

---

On top of the gross underperformance, it's who they're doing it against that is infuriating. Rangers, Mariners, Marlins. I don't know what it is about teams in the NL east, but we really do not perform well against that division. These are all teams they should be curb stomping. We'll have a better idea after the NY marathon whether this has been a lack of motivation or if this is just who they are.

I think we're getting ready to find out how good of a GM Click really is, because he has some tough decisions in front of him (both this year and in the coming offseason).

W said:

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I'd say there is a power problem.

Bregman had 80 x-base hits in 2019.

he has 68 x-base hits in 2020, 2021, and 2022...combined --- combined in the last 3 seasons

---

Yes and no.

Bregman never had much power. He's still hitting the ball as hard as he ever did. He's barreling up a similar percentage. He just had the ability to put the ball in the air and pull it. It was kind of freskish how good he was at Crawford bBox shots.

In 18 and 19 Breggy hit 78 HRs. 46 of them we're "doubters" meaning they would have only been out of 7 of fewer ballparks.

Look at 18+19 HRs with MMP overlayed and then Angels Stadium



Add in the lack of speed and maybe a few doubles become singles and a few singles become outs.

I still think he might not be 100%. Usually, your speed returns after an injury the next year. It doesn't seem like that is the case with Bregman which leads to question if he's healthy.

I mean, it is Kate Upton - man has to feel like his prime has only just begun

Harry Dunne said:

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redline248 said:

---

It looks like we are going to play musical CF until someone really gets it going. Chas was going well for a while, but has cooled off. Eventually someone has to perform well enough to stay out there, right?

---

Astros rookie Jake Meyers sends one to the train tracks 😳🚂

(via @astros)pic.twitter.com/7vS40u4A3W

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 7, 2021

---

I posted his stats from AAA the other day. I know it's still early, but he's not doing well (real or expected stats).

Harry Dunne said:

---

redline248 said:

---

It looks like we are going to play musical CF until someone really gets it going. Chas was going well for a while, but has cooled off. Eventually someone has to perform well enough to stay out there, right?

---

Astros rookie Jake Meyers sends one to the train tracks 😳🚂

(via @astros)pic.twitter.com/7vS40u4A3W

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 7, 2021

---

EastCoast pointed it out, but if he comes back and hits like he has been in AAA the platooning will continue.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/423-the-sean-salisbury-show-29630092/episode/6-15-22-james-click-98358216/

Here is the interview with Click this morning

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

Frok said:

---

It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

---

Definitely. Being upset with Castro hitting .100 or Bregman turning into Colin Moran is different than saying "this team is broke" and "it's 2009 again".

That said, even saying we are "grossly and serially underperforming" is high drama. I think the O/U on wins preseason was 92.5 and we are on pace for 99!

Are some guys underpeforming? For sure. Others are overperforming. Who had Pena as ROY frontrunner (T&P for his injury) or JV as the CYA favorite? And for sure we have lost some we should have won and could have a better record, but that's true of every team every year.

I believe we are 13-5 in 1-run games. We could have lost a lot of those too. Things have gone our way a lot too.

---

On top of the gross underperformance, it's who they're doing it against that is infuriating. Rangers, Mariners, Marlins. I don't know what it is about teams in the NL east, but we really do not perform well against that division. These are all teams they should be curb stomping. We'll have a better idea after the NY marathon whether this has been a lack of motivation or if this is just who they are.

I think we're getting ready to find out how good of a GM Click really is, because he has some tough decisions in front of him (both this year and in the coming offseason).

---

That's not really how baseball works. I know you know all of this and it's going to sound really pedantic, but you're acting like you don't, so...

A great team usually still loses 40% of of their games and a terrible one still wins 40%. So the odds very much dictate that a great team will have a terrible week here and there and a great team will lose a series to a terrible team.

Mediocre teams also have some good pitchers and any MLB starting pitcher can have a great day and shut down a good offense (especially if your 7-9 are corpses). Mike Fiers pitched 2 no-hitters. I think he had a 7 ERA going into one of them. That's all you need to know.

I think if you stop watching baseball with the mentality of a football fan (who should be righteously pissed when his top of the division team loses to a bottom of the division team), you'll be happier.

redline248 said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

redline248 said:

---

It looks like we are going to play musical CF until someone really gets it going. Chas was going well for a while, but has cooled off. Eventually someone has to perform well enough to stay out there, right?

---

Astros rookie Jake Meyers sends one to the train tracks 😳🚂

(via @astros)pic.twitter.com/7vS40u4A3W

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 7, 2021

---

EastCoast pointed it out, but if he comes back and hits like he has been in AAA the platooning will continue.

---

Yep, if he hits terrible like he has for 8 games coming off a serious injury. You've got to be pretty pessmistic to think that's who he is now.

Or he could find his groove and be the future at CF.

Or it could be somewhere in the middle, which will still be an improvement.

CFTXAG10 said:

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Which is exactly what someone who is worried about Alex Bregman would say!

James Click said that Alex Bregman’s approach at the plate is the same, but could be a mechanical issue. Specifically getting more power on the pull side. (@SeanUnfiltered show)

“We’re not worried about Alex Bregman”

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) June 15, 2022

---

is that the equivalent of a college AD giving the football coach a vote of confidence?

Idk, which is why I said "if." All I want is someone to play out there and we all feel confident with them at the plate with a man on 2nd or 3rd. I don't care who it is

T&P for our lineup on days Aledmys sits while Pena is out.

Harry Dunne said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

Frok said:

---

It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

---

Definitely. Being upset with Castro hitting .100 or Bregman turning into Colin Moran is different than saying "this team is broke" and "it's 2009 again".

That said, even saying we are "grossly and serially underperforming" is high drama. I think the O/U on wins preseason was 92.5 and we are on pace for 99!

Are some guys underpeforming? For sure. Others are overperforming. Who had Pena as ROY frontrunner (T&P for his injury) or JV as the CYA favorite? And for sure we have lost some we should have won and could have a better record, but that's true of every team every year.

I believe we are 13-5 in 1-run games. We could have lost a lot of those too. Things have gone our way a lot too.

---

On top of the gross underperformance, it's who they're doing it against that is infuriating. Rangers, Mariners, Marlins. I don't know what it is about teams in the NL east, but we really do not perform well against that division. These are all teams they should be curb stomping. We'll have a better idea after the NY marathon whether this has been a lack of motivation or if this is just who they are.

I think we're getting ready to find out how good of a GM Click really is, because he has some tough decisions in front of him (both this year and in the coming offseason).

---

That's not really how baseball works. I know you know all of this and it's going to sound really pedantic, but you're acting like you don't, so...

A great team usually still loses 40% of of their games and a terrible one still wins 40%. So the odds very much dictate that a great team will have a terrible week here and there and a great team will lose a series to a terrible team.

Mediocre teams also have some good pitchers and any MLB starting pitcher can have a great day and shut down a good offense (especially if your 7-9 are corpses). Mike Fiers pitched 2 no-hitters. I think he had a 7 ERA going into one of them. That's all you need to know.

I think if you stop watching baseball with the mentality of a football fan (who should be righteously pissed when his top of the division team loses to a bottom of the division team), you'll be happier.

---

We lost game 1 of this Rangers series and our guys had the 13 hardest hit baseballs in the game

ALL 13!

astros4545 said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

Frok said:

---

It's amazing what 1 good inning did to Astros fandom. It was pretty bleak in here until that inning.

---

It's amazing how many seemingly "veteran" Astros fans are ready to give up on the team after a bad week and a half. I always wonder whether these folks are equally negative and easily discouraged in real life or if they show a brave face to the world but then purge all their negativity out here, anonymously.

---

There's a difference between being pissed off at how a team is grossly and serially underperforming vs "giving up". I am firmly in the first category.

---

Definitely. Being upset with Castro hitting .100 or Bregman turning into Colin Moran is different than saying "this team is broke" and "it's 2009 again".

That said, even saying we are "grossly and serially underperforming" is high drama. I think the O/U on wins preseason was 92.5 and we are on pace for 99!

Are some guys underpeforming? For sure. Others are overperforming. Who had Pena as ROY frontrunner (T&P for his injury) or JV as the CYA favorite? And for sure we have lost some we should have won and could have a better record, but that's true of every team every year.

I believe we are 13-5 in 1-run games. We could have lost a lot of those too. Things have gone our way a lot too.

---

On top of the gross underperformance, it's who they're doing it against that is infuriating. Rangers, Mariners, Marlins. I don't know what it is about teams in the NL east, but we really do not perform well against that division. These are all teams they should be curb stomping. We'll have a better idea after the NY marathon whether this has been a lack of motivation or if this is just who they are.

I think we're getting ready to find out how good of a GM Click really is, because he has some tough decisions in front of him (both this year and in the coming offseason).

---

That's not really how baseball works. I know you know all of this and it's going to sound really pedantic, but you're acting like you don't, so...

A great team usually still loses 40% of of their games and a terrible one still wins 40%. So the odds very much dictate that a great team will have a terrible week here and there and a great team will lose a series to a terrible team.

Mediocre teams also have some good pitchers and any MLB starting pitcher can have a great day and shut down a good offense (especially if your 7-9 are corpses). Mike Fiers pitched 2 no-hitters. I think he had a 7 ERA going into one of them. That's all you need to know.

I think if you stop watching baseball with the mentality of a football fan (who should be righteously pissed when his top of the division team loses to a bottom of the division team), you'll be happier.

---

We lost game 1 of this Rangers series and our guys had the 13 hardest hit baseballs in the game

ALL 13!

---

I think that changed after the 8th, but the point stands. 4 barrels for 0 hits.

Ag07 is right on his take. Bregman had not been the same since he got his woman.

As for JV, look at his age. He was older when he got with Kate. Bregman was in his early 20s and hadn't been in the bigs very long. Though Bregs is supposedly a gym rat with baseball, learning to balance those other life priorities can take its toll.

agproducer said:

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Ag07 is right on his take. Bregman had not been the same since he got his woman.

As for JV, look at his age. He was older when he got with Kate. Bregman was in his early 20s and hadn't been in the bigs very long. Though Bregs is supposedly a gym rat with baseball, learning to balance those other life priorities can take its toll.

---

The other thing that seperates them is that Verlander had nude photos leak, while Bregman hasnt yet

Got to think a release or hack of those photos could change everything for the better

Dusty Baker said Jeremy Peña had an MRI that didn’t show any significant damage, but Peña won’t swing a bat for at least a week.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 15, 2022

I am more than okay with resting him for a week