AgsMyDude said:
scrimp said:
Astros top plays of the series (according to baseball-reference championship win probability added)
1) Game 4- Castro's 2 out single in the top of the 9th to break the 2-2 tie and start a huge inning.
2) Game 1- Altuve's 2 out, 2 run homer in the bottom of the 6th to tie the game at 3.
3) Game 4- Altuve's solo shot in the top of the 8th to tie it (down 2-1 at the time)
4) Game 6- Graveman/Machete's strike 'em out/throw 'em out double play in the top of the 7th (1 out, 2 on, up 2-0)
5) Game 5- Framber Valdez induces GIDP up 1-0 with 2 on in the bottom of the 5th
6) Game 1- Correa's solo shot HR in the bottom of the 7th to break a 1-1 tie.
7) Game 4- Correa's lead off double in the top of the 9th
Where is the Tucker HR from last night? That one sealed it and gave the bullpen room to close it out
I pulled the info from baseball-reference.com. I didn't come up with the formulas or list, but it looks like, being the bottom of the 8th and up 2-0, the Astros already had a 94% win probability. Tuckers HR put it to 99% (probably 99.9% based on it stating his HR added 6% to the win probability).
Compare that to the Graveman/Maldy play. That increased the odds by 17% from 72% (T7, 1 out, 1st and 3rd), to 89% at the end of the inning.
Tucker's homer was huge in putting the game out of reach, but the Astros still had the odds in their favor without it.