W said:

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what if Correa cannot find a team to give him a 10-year contract?

in part because there are so many other options available at SS...Semien, Seager, Story, et al

that can be signed for only a 4 or 5-year commitment

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If we are holding out that no team offers Correa a 10 year deal, then we missed the boat on all the other free agent shortstops. If Correa is holding out, I hope the Astros move on so we don't end up with Robel as our only option.

BMX Bandit said:

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Robel is not an option.

if all else fails, Diaz Bregman on that side of infield.

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Figure of speech. I don't want the Astros left holding their nuts trying to patch a major vacancy.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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W said:

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what if Correa cannot find a team to give him a 10-year contract?

in part because there are so many other options available at SS...Semien, Seager, Story, et al

that can be signed for only a 4 or 5-year commitment

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If we are holding out that no team offers Correa a 10 year deal, then we missed the boat on all the other free agent shortstops. If Correa is holding out, I hope the Astros move on so we don't end up with Robel as our only option.

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Robel just got DFA'd, Bregman exists and so do Pena and Leon, Leon I would say first guess seeing as when he came back last night from the IL he played short and Pena went to 3B

Or Bregman to SS, Yuli to 3rd, Yordan to 1st.

BMX Bandit said:

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Robel is not an option.

if all else fails, Diaz Bregman on that side of infield.

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Or Pena.

Burn-It said:

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I guess Marwin was not a terrible pickup afterall . . .

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3 HR in 21 ABs as an Astro this year. His OPS is nearly 300 points higher since the move too.

Quote:

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Jake/Chas/Siri are not George

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true, but they have outperformed him this year

Harry Dunne said:

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Sort this by contract years and tell me which ones 10 years or more are good...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/

Even as you scroll down to the 8 year contracts, all of the ones near their end are awful.

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I generally agree, but How many signed it at 27 though?

I think Carlos could be the exception to the rule if it's structured right. Throw big money money overall so he makes headlines, front weight it so you're paying for his prime, give him an opt out to get paid again, if he does stay the 2nd half is more manageable since it's front weighted.

This is probably all a pipe dream tho.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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Jake/Chas/Siri are not George

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true, but they have outperformed him this year

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And on a budget, which is my point.

We aren't going to have a SS better than Correa anytime soon, but it's easy to imagine a situation in which through his future injuries and eventual decline, we (either through moving guys or signing better value FAs or promoting guys internally) have a "greater sum of its parts" situation.

W said:

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yes, that is true.

even the Bryce Harper contract.

while Harper has been individually great...the Phillies are probably going to miss the playoffs again. Will be 0 for 3 in the Harper era.

in part due to opportunity cost

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That can't be blamed on him. He's adding as much or more value than what he's being paid. The end of the deal is when it'll hurt.

In regards to spending the money elsewhere...can we dive into that a little more? Obviously, I think we all want to lock up TED and Yordan. Then what? Are there any quality SP out there worth signing to a 4-5 year deal? What current bullpen arms need to be paid?

redline248 said:

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In regards to spending the money elsewhere...can we dive into that a little more? Obviously, I think we all want to lock up TED and Yordan. Then what? Are there any quality SP out there worth signing to a 4-5 year deal? What current bullpen arms need to be paid?

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Pitching will be a much higher priority. Our lineup without Correa is still top tier.

redline248 said:

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In regards to spending the money elsewhere...can we dive into that a little more? Obviously, I think we all want to lock up TED and Yordan. Then what? Are there any quality SP out there worth signing to a 4-5 year deal? What current bullpen arms need to be paid?

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The top arms available in 2022
Scherzer
Ray
Kershaw
Gausman
Stroman
Rodon
Thor
Gray
Verlander
Greinke

Our Bullpen
Graveman
Garcia

The amount of $$ thats going to be spent (or rather that the players will want to be spent) this offseason coupled with the purported lowering of the luxury tax threshold to $180MM will make it very interesting.

So the rumors/current beliefs seem to be that Carlos is wanting at least a 10 year deal, which puts would put him under contract from age 27 to age 36.

This year, the oldest SS in the league is 34--Brandon Crawford and a few others. Crawford is having a great year, and is in the last year of his contract.

Cal Ripken had a pretty good WAR until he was 35 (peaked at age 30), and then he dropped off pretty hard after.

A-Rod is similar--peaked at 29 and 31, slow respectable decline until 35, dropped off 35+

Ozzie Smith is a bit of an outlier, playing SS at an AS level until 37, and even respectable until 39.

Jeter played high level until 35, and then dropped significantly.

Nomar dropped off pretty hard after 30.

Before digging into the numbers, I thought it would have been idiotic to give a SS a contract until he was 36. I don't think the Astros will do it (they haven't done and/many long contracts), but after looking
at some other players, the production levels from shortstops seems to drop significantly around 35. 1 year of a boat-anchor contract doesn't seem too bad. Of course, that's assuming he can stay healthy (big if) and he continues on the same path he's been on.

Farmer1906 said:

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redline248 said:

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In regards to spending the money elsewhere...can we dive into that a little more? Obviously, I think we all want to lock up TED and Yordan. Then what? Are there any quality SP out there worth signing to a 4-5 year deal? What current bullpen arms need to be paid?

---

The top arms available in 2022
Scherzer
Ray
Kershaw
Gausman
Stroman
Rodon
Thor
Gray
Verlander
Greinke

Our Bullpen
Graveman
Garcia

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Keep this in mind

Under Team Control thru 2024
Altuve
Bregman

Under Team Control thru 2025
Tucker
Alvarez
McCullers
Framber
Javier
Urquidy

That right there is a decent rotation and a strong 1 thru 4 in a line up. This is why the window is wide ass open. We just have to keep bringing up dudes (Baby Face Bomber, Chassyfizz, Siri, Pena, Lee, Leon, LuACE, etc) and then spend money like Crane has shown he's willing to.

Mathguy64 said:

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The amount of $$ thats going to be spent (or rather that the players will want to be spent) this offseason coupled with the purported lowering of the luxury tax threshold to $180MM will make it very interesting.

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Yes, yes it is. We need to be the vultures that swoop in and sign the short-term deals when they can't get what they want.

If Story is still looking for a job in late Feb, why can't we throw 2 year, 40 M at him?

scrimp said:

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So the rumors/current beliefs seem to be that Carlos is wanting at least a 10 year deal, which puts would put him under contract from age 27 to age 36.

This year, the oldest SS in the league is 34--Brandon Crawford and a few others. Crawford is having a great year, and is in the last year of his contract.

Cal Ripken had a pretty good WAR until he was 35 (peaked at age 30), and then he dropped off pretty hard after.

A-Rod is similar--peaked at 29 and 31, slow respectable decline until 35, dropped off 35+

Ozzie Smith is a bit of an outlier, playing SS at an AS level until 37, and even respectable until 39.

Jeter played high level until 35, and then dropped significantly.

Nomar dropped off pretty hard after 30.

Before digging into the numbers, I thought it would have been idiotic to give a SS a contract until he was 36. I don't think the Astros will do it (they haven't done and/many long contracts), but after looking
at some other players, the production levels from shortstops seems to drop significantly around 35. 1 year of a boat-anchor contract doesn't seem too bad. Of course, that's assuming he can stay healthy (big if) and he continues on the same path he's been on.

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Pretty much any long-term deal isn't going to work out on the back end. The idea is you're paying for the most good years with the least amount of bad ones.

I'd be much more likely to give Correa 10 years than George 8 years.

Lindor set the market. 10/341 M. Why would Carlos take something not within 5% of that? This pretty much means he's gone.

Here's my general take on Correa and the big contract debate. For this let's just assume 10/300

I wouldn't personally go more than 8 years.

Let's assume he plays up to that contract for 6 years. I'm ok overspending for just 2 years of underproduction but to be paying for 4 years of underproduction is pretty crippling.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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The amount of $$ thats going to be spent (or rather that the players will want to be spent) this offseason coupled with the purported lowering of the luxury tax threshold to $180MM will make it very interesting.

---

Yes, yes it is. We need to be the vultures that swoop in and sign the short-term deals when they can't get what they want.

If Story is still looking for a job in late Feb, why can't we throw 2 year, 40 M at him?

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His home road splits are gawdawful. Hes a product of Coors Field.

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Ok fine, but you're missing the point. Take the player name out of it. Spotrac has his value at 8 yrs, $238,639,712. If we can get him on a short-term deal because he isn't getting the long-term deal he wants, we need to be there. Kind of like we did with Odo. Now, that didn't work out, but I think the logic around it does.

Farmer1906 said:

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redline248 said:

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In regards to spending the money elsewhere...can we dive into that a little more? Obviously, I think we all want to lock up TED and Yordan. Then what? Are there any quality SP out there worth signing to a 4-5 year deal? What current bullpen arms need to be paid?

---

The top arms available in 2022
Scherzer
Ray
Kershaw
Gausman
Stroman
Rodon
Thor
Gray
Verlander
Greinke

Our Bullpen
Graveman
Garcia

---

The top arms available in 2022
Scherzer wouldnt offer more than 3-4
Ray ehh
Kershaw no thanks, one of these injuries sooner or later is going to end him
Gausman ?
Stroman hard pass
Rodon probably higher than what we want to spend
Thor yes please, 5-7 year, something similar to McC
Gray ehh
Verlander yes at low cost 2 yrs, say 2/$45
Greinke no thanks

Our Bullpen
Graveman offer 2-3...20-30 total? maybe have to go 35-45?
Garcia offer 1 year prove it type contract, hasn't been great for us but also not bad

This season Story is 80-100 points higher on all his slash numbers at home. Big field, humongous gaps. his wRC+ is 94 away from home. Even his K% is up a significant amount from 20 to 27%.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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The amount of $$ thats going to be spent (or rather that the players will want to be spent) this offseason coupled with the purported lowering of the luxury tax threshold to $180MM will make it very interesting.

---

Yes, yes it is. We need to be the vultures that swoop in and sign the short-term deals when they can't get what they want.

If Story is still looking for a job in late Feb, why can't we throw 2 year, 40 M at him?

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His home road splits are gawdawful. Hes a product of Coors Field.

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Ok fine, but you're missing the point. Take the player name out of it. Spotrac has his value at 8 yrs, $238,639,712. If we can get him on a short-term deal because he isn't getting the long-term deal he wants, we need to be there. Kind of like we did with Odo. Now, that didn't work out, but I think the logic around it does.

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Except Odo was signed as a 5th starter and I would argue that you got exactly what you paid for there (maybe a bit more). You would be signing Story to be an everyday SS and his value outside of Coors (where he would now play 100% of the time) is not $20MM a year. He's literally an average player away from Coors for his career. And this year hes actually worse than average.

Hard pass on Story. And I will wager that the GM's around baseball draw that same conclusion. Someone may pay him $20MM a year but by and large most will pass.

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You're still missing the point. Story was just the first name that popped into my head. Whatever player that doesn't get the deal they think they deserve, we should take a good long hard look at. Basically, offer those 1 year prove it deals like Semien took.

And Odo was absolutely not signed as a 5th starter type. He was the Twins #3 and an all-star in 2019.