***Official Houston Astros 2021 Season Thread***

3,835,794 Views | 73542 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Teddy Perkins
redline248
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MaxPower
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The 8-9 black hole is a problem. Fading a couple spots because your 1-7 is great just isn't a good idea. Every team / hitters has slumps. You need as much production as you can get everywhere. Short term, Castro needs more ABs. Chas probably needs a start or two a week as well (either in CF or with Tucker in CF).

We are bottom 5 in runners left in scoring position per game. We were bottom 3 in 2019. Some of that is the volume of guys getting on but using the Dodgers last year as an example they were 11th even as a great hitting team with lots of runners. This group of guys just struggles driving in runs consistently.
tjack16
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McCormick and Castro need to be starting tonight. Straw and Maldonado need a day or two off
Wabs
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Obviously catcher is a big problem right now. Castro needs more PT and Maldy needs to sit for a while. Front office needs to make it a priority to find a catcher via trade or however.
AggiEE
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Catcher is not our problem

Timely hitting in the 1-7 spot is. The season is still early, these games happen
htxag09
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Tend to agree. Catcher is everyone's weakness. However, machete is in a huge slump right now, batting sub .100 wouldn't fly for any team, let alone one with post season aspirations. He does need to figure it out and I don't think a couple days off would hurt.
Farmer1906
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https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/4/12/22377590/the-astros-boast-a-quality-catching-tandem-but-have-yet-to-take-advantage-of-it

Quote:


Maldonado is an adequate hitter (for a catcher) against lefty pitching and Castro is more than adequate against righties. Both are rock solid defenders behind the plate. Each could start for several other teams. They complement each other seamlessly, so one could easily replace the other mid-game. Despite having this uncommon luxury, the Astros have shown no willingness to exploit it.

Maldonado, who entered spring training as the Astros' starting catcher, produced surprisingly good numbers in 2020. The driving force behind that production was an absurd 16.4 percent walk rate. Against right-handed pitching, it was an even 17 percent.

From 2016 to 2019, Maldonado's walk rate against righties was 6.3 percent. For his career, it's 7.3 percent. Though Maldonado improved his chase rate against righties in 2020, a 17 percent walk rate is simply not replicable, and without it, he's objectively inept versus righty pitching.

This is where the left-handed Castro should come in. Castro lost out on much of 2020 due to injury, but two years ago, he was tremendous at the plate. Against righties in 2019, Castro finished third in wOBACON and first in xwOBACON among all catchers, per Statcast. In regard to the latter metric, Castro ranked above many notable backstops: Gary Snchez, Mitch Garver, Willson Contreras and J.T. Realmuto, all of whom were in the Top 10.

Castro's Achilles' heel has long been southpaw pitching. This isn't exactly where Maldonado comes in, as hitting lefty pitching isn't a clear strength for him, but he does profile better against them than Castro does and has at least produced spurts of promising results.



Catcher shouldn't be as big of a problem as it has been. Dusty needs to play Castro more and give more opportunities against the best L/R split for each.
Deluxe
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Regarding Straw, I'll be interested to see how much more leash he gets. The sample size is getting big and the results are staying small. Up to 263 big league plate appearances with .240/.324/.305. Given our OF depth situation, I suspect he's going to be given every chance get it together. Chas seems like a fun player with potential and I'm guessing his time will come, but there could also be some "backup QB" mentality with him (ie everyone wants the backup to get a chance when the starter isn't playing well but that's not always the best solution). Anyway, I'm starting to accept that Straw is a AAAA player a la D-Fish. Happy to issue a formal apology to everyone if I'm wrong.

Agree that I'm not 100% sure what we're doing behind the plate. I'm not too worried about Maldy yet but agree that we should be platooning Castro/Maldy more strategically. Part of me wonders if we're giving Maldy the bulk PT and resting Castro now because we plan to give Maldy a rest this summer and let Castro takeover bulk PT duties for a while. Then platoon them properly down the stretch.
Lonestar_Ag09
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I mean I get that most pitchers we will face are going to be righties and there fore you would see Machete's time drop way off if Castro was playing every game against them...but Jason needs to be seeing more time for sure. Have maldy face all Lefty starters and a few righties in between. IF we can get that figured out im still fine with Straw rolling at 8 or even if Castro is in the lineup flip them and have Straw 9th
Farmer1906
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

I mean I get that most pitchers we will face are going to be righties and there fore you would see Machete's time drop way off if Castro was playing every game against them...but Jason needs to be seeing more time for sure. Have maldy face all Lefty starters and a few righties in between. IF we can get that figured out im still fine with Straw rolling at 8 or even if Castro is in the lineup flip them and have Straw 9th
This.

I think roughly 1/3 of the league has lefty starters. Maldonado gets all those plus starts against 1/6 of the starts vs righties. Castro gets 100% of his starts vs righties. They split 50-50. Do that and offensive production will be solid enough.

My position on Straw hasn't changed. If he's going to be a soft-hitting singles hitter then his defense needs to be elite and he needs to steal more bases. He thinks he can lead the league, but he's on a base the only steal 32. With Chas as the only real other option, I wouldn't just switch the two, but you gotta mix it up a little. Straw may just need more time. He's likely going to get it.

What on earth was going through Dusty's mind when he considered Straw to lead off?
redline248
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AggiEE said:

Catcher is not our problem

Timely hitting in the 1-7 spot is. The season is still early, these games happen
I don't know the actual numbers, but it feels like Maldy is up with a runner on and 2 outs an awful lot.
Farmer1906
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MAROON
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redline248 said:

AggiEE said:

Catcher is not our problem

Timely hitting in the 1-7 spot is. The season is still early, these games happen
I don't know the actual numbers, but it feels like Maldy is up with a runner on and 2 outs an awful lot.
27 runners on base so far - ZERO have scored when he is at bat.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

I mean I get that most pitchers we will face are going to be righties and there fore you would see Machete's time drop way off if Castro was playing every game against them...but Jason needs to be seeing more time for sure. Have maldy face all Lefty starters and a few righties in between. IF we can get that figured out im still fine with Straw rolling at 8 or even if Castro is in the lineup flip them and have Straw 9th
This.

I think roughly 1/3 of the league has lefty starters. Maldonado gets all those plus starts against 1/6 of the starts vs righties. Castro gets 100% of his starts vs righties. They split 50-50. Do that and offensive production will be solid enough.

My position on Straw hasn't changed. If he's going to be a soft-hitting singles hitter then his defense needs to be elite and he needs to steal more bases. He thinks he can lead the league, but he's on a base the only steal 32. With Chas as the only real other option, I wouldn't just switch the two, but you gotta mix it up a little. Straw may just need more time. He's likely going to get it.

What on earth was going through Dusty's mind when he considered Straw to lead off?
Castro would get 5/6 of the righties if Maldy get 1/6...

For Straw I don't recall any plays so far this year I thought he should have made but didn't. I do recall his issues with Altuve...but I honestly think those are more a product of Jose trying to do too much...your outfielders take precedent on a flyball it doesn't matter who the infielder is coming out, baseball 101. Jose had the same issue with Tucker a few games ago as well, just let the OF do their job.

I feel like Straw is already proving his worth with his speed beating plays at first Id assume with more experience and at bats that will increase. He is also running more than past years and advancing on balls more than Astros have in recent years, (see late in last nights game)

As far as Straw leading off I think it was purely an old school thought process, which isn't that what "we love" about Dusty...he wanted to try the fast light hitting guy as leadoff. Thankfully he realized that cant be the strategy.
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

I mean I get that most pitchers we will face are going to be righties and there fore you would see Machete's time drop way off if Castro was playing every game against them...but Jason needs to be seeing more time for sure. Have maldy face all Lefty starters and a few righties in between. IF we can get that figured out im still fine with Straw rolling at 8 or even if Castro is in the lineup flip them and have Straw 9th
This.

I think roughly 1/3 of the league has lefty starters. Maldonado gets all those plus starts against 1/6 of the starts vs righties. Castro gets 100% of his starts vs righties. They split 50-50. Do that and offensive production will be solid enough.

My position on Straw hasn't changed. If he's going to be a soft-hitting singles hitter then his defense needs to be elite and he needs to steal more bases. He thinks he can lead the league, but he's on a base the only steal 32. With Chas as the only real other option, I wouldn't just switch the two, but you gotta mix it up a little. Straw may just need more time. He's likely going to get it.

What on earth was going through Dusty's mind when he considered Straw to lead off?
I think he needs to be given the green light to run at anytime. I'm not sure how much of it is his decision verses Dusty's.

All I want for Straw is to put the ball in play and draw some walks.
Farmer1906
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Idk about yall, but no, I don't love Dusty for his antiquated ways. He seems to have evolved for the most part. I like Dusty for his personal relationships. He seems to get along with his players and they seem to respect him.

Did the math in my head. Maldo would get 100% of the lefties and 25% of the righties. Castro would get 100% of the righties. This is assuming the rough 67-33 split of R-L.
redline248
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MAROON said:

redline248 said:

AggiEE said:

Catcher is not our problem

Timely hitting in the 1-7 spot is. The season is still early, these games happen
I don't know the actual numbers, but it feels like Maldy is up with a runner on and 2 outs an awful lot.
27 runners on base so far - ZERO have scored when he is at bat.
I would classify that as a problem
Farmer1906
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How soon does Dusty shuffle the line up again?

MaxPower
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Agreed. Not a great game day decision maker but great at managing guys and personalities.
Ag_07
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One BIG difference between Hinch and Baker is swapping out players early in the season.

Remember when Hinch would bench guys in the first couple weeks of the season? Not because he was benching non producers but he really liked to get backups involved early and get them engaged. He didn't like them to break ST then just sit idol until he needed them.

We're not seeing that from Baker at all. He's sticking with his guys to a fault here. I know it used to drive us crazy to see our core get rest days early on but now it wouldn't be a bad idea to be getting Chas and Castro, and to see extent Diaz, and Garcia some reps.
Fat Bib Fortuna
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April 13, 1986: Braves 8, Astros 7

Attendance: 8,739 Length of Game: 2:56
Record: 3-3, third place, 1 game behind SF in the NL West

Starting Lineup
Doran 2B
Bullock LF
Walling 3B
Davis 1B
Bass CF
Thon SS
Bailey C
Hatcher RF
Scott P

The Astros' late-inning rally fell just short as they fell to the Atlanta Braves 8-7 to miss out on a sweep at the end of their first week of play in the 1986 season. The Braves roughed up Mike Scott for 5 earned runs in just 5 innings, sending Scott to a record of 0-2 with a season ERA of 7.20. The Astros were in a 5-0 hole through 3-1/2 but the bats came alive for their best effort of the young season, but all in vain. The team scored six runs in their final four at-bats, including two in the bottom of the ninth to pull within 8-7 Astro veteran third baseman Phil Garner stroked a two-run single in the last of the ninth off Bruce Sutter to get the Astros within 8-7. The Braves replaced Sutter with Gene Garber, who promptly gave up a single to Jim Pankovits to put runners at first-and-third with one out. But Garber got Glenn Davis to hit into an around-the-horn double play to end the game.
The loss squandered big games from Garner, who went 2-for-2 off the bench with 4 RBI, adding an RBI triple in the bottom of the seventh. It was only the third game of the year for Garner, who was in a platoon with Denny Walling at third after playing 135 games the year before. Also on fire at the plate was Doran, who went 3-for-4 and scored 4 runs. Through the first week of the season, Doran was hitting .412 with an OPS of 1.188. On the opposite end of the spectrum, outfielders Eric Bullock and Billy Hatcher continued their battle of "League's ****tiest hitter" - Bullock's went 0-for-3 to reach .048; Hatcher was 0-for-2 and was down to .077.
jetch17
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im ready for a W
RO519
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Odorizzi taking the bump this afternoon. LFG!!!
dshedd41
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Gig’em Aggies!
Farmer1906
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RO519 said:

Odorizzi taking the bump this afternoon. LFG!!!
Odorizzi faced DET 4x in 2019.
He went 5 or more each start.
Twins won all 4 games.
Jake earned 3 Ws.
ERA was 2.78.

Farmer1906
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Dan Shedd said:


We're facing lefty Matt Boyd.

Castro, who actually hits well above avg vs righties (125 OPS+ in 2019), is getting his third start vs a lefty. He's started thrice, all vs lefties.

Am I crazy? It shouldn't be this difficult.
tjack16
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Why isn't McCormick getting a start?
bearkatag15
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ttha_aggie_09
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bearkatag15 said:




Martin's real problem this year....

Needs a new hair color
Farmer1906
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That runs parallel to Castro's deal. I think it's smart and probably cheap. We'll need Lee to be ready in 2023.
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

Dan Shedd said:


We're facing lefty Matt Boyd.

Castro, who actually hits well above avg vs righties (125 OPS+ in 2019), is getting his third start vs a lefty. He's started thrice, all vs lefties.

Am I crazy? It shouldn't be this difficult.
good chance Dusty isn't even looking at right - left and is either going "well Maldy has been awful let's give Castro a shot," or it's a scheduled day off.

It's baffling
Lonestar_Ag09
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Now I will admit....I think we would have seen plenty of comments if Machete were starting again.
agproducer
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Castro is starting because he caught Odorizzi when they both were with the Twins.
Farmer1906
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redline248 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Dan Shedd said:


We're facing lefty Matt Boyd.

Castro, who actually hits well above avg vs righties (125 OPS+ in 2019), is getting his third start vs a lefty. He's started thrice, all vs lefties.

Am I crazy? It shouldn't be this difficult.
good chance Dusty isn't even looking at right - left and is either going "well Maldy has been awful let's give Castro a shot," or it's a scheduled day off.

It's baffling
Maybe he wants Jake to have someone familiar. I can accept that for this start, but damn.
MaxPower
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bearkatag15 said:




Ug I hate it. Would rather wait to see if a catcher who can hit becomes available in free agency. D'Arnaud is a free agent. Barnhart could be and is better offensively and defensively.
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