I agree with you...I just think you are seemingly the leading proponent of offering him only the bare minimum because he has had some freak injuries. Heck all of your comparisons are in depth on offense numbers and personally I feel blowing off his defensive upside.

And while I get it you take his injured seasons numbers and basically treat them as a full season and say he is Trae Turner....as Resident Biden would say "Come on man!"

I am in no way saying I would pay 12 years 300+ or whatever but Carlos Correa isnt Trae Turner, and those who arent offering in the off season arent doing so because they dont believe in him and his possibilities.

Farmer1906 said:

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Moving on from Carlos for a second. Let's assume JV doesn't make it back for the postseason. We could still have some really good starting pitching for a short series.

Look at the piggyback options:

Framber
Greinke / Javier
McCullers / Garcia
Odorizzi / Urqudy

Then you shut the door or play match-ups with Smith, Baez, & Pressly. Mix in Taylor or Raley if you need to get lefties out.

No one needs to see the 3rd time through the lineup unless you're just on fire.

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Piggybacks

You make a good point, I have probably marginalized his defense, which I agree has been amazing.

The summary of my feelings on this is "man I just want to win"... and I think offering him more than is already on the table would be gambling that his health will get better as he ages, which I just think is a bad bet. Nothing against the man or the baseball player. I'm a fan of both, just a realist.

I think part of the equation needs to be the uncertainty. You can't guarantee ANY player stays healthy. Look at JV. Would you rather risk a big contract on Correa, who looks to truly love being in Houston, or the field of free agents/prospects? You might strike out on any of them. It's all uncertainty.

My preference is to give Correa a better than fair deal to ensure he stays in Houston, and not worry about future injuries. (obviously not my money, and bias fully disclosed)

You can look at it this way. If Correa had been healthy his entire career, he'd probably be looking for 12 year, 330 M. But since he hasn't then we can get him for a factor of that. If he's hurt some we're already getting pro rated star. If he's healthy then we're getting a steal.

From Tag's article on the rotation and back end of the bullpen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-set-rotation-for-first-series-of-2021

Quote:

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That leaves Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Enoli Paredes, Brooks Raley, Ryne Stanek and Blake Taylor as apparent locks to make the club. If they carry eight relievers, that leaves two more spots. Garcia or Bielak will get one, with Bryan Abreu likely also making the team. Garcia, Bielak and Abreu can each provide length. Bez and Scrubb should be activated early in the season.

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Any early ideas on who yall think our travel squad will be?

Another thing I wanted to post was that Correa's quote about the offer being "really low" made me laugh.

Look, I will never begrudge a man for getting his money. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to take care of his family for life, I get it. That said, if he really wanted to stay in Houston, I don't see how much more than $120 million a man could possibly need.

I'm sure he loves Houston, but I don't buy this Astros for life stuff. These guys are all mercenaries. No judgment, but let's be real about that.

Carlos has had one season in 2016 where he played a full season(153 games). He hasn't surpassed 110 games in any year. He also has never hit more than 25 homers or surpassed 100 rbi. Maybe if he can stay healthy and produce this year. But he hasn't done enough to warrant 30 million a year.

Harry Dunne said:

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Another thing I wanted to post was that Correa's quote about the offer being "really low" made me laugh.

Look, I will never begrudge a man for getting his money. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to take care of his family for life, I get it. That said, if he really wanted to stay in Houston, I don't see how much more than $120 million a man could possibly need.

I'm sure he loves Houston, but I don't buy this Astros for life stuff. These guys are all mercenaries. No judgment, but let's be real about that.

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So you would do a sales Job in San Antonio for $100,000
or
You could do the exact same job in Nashville for $200,000

your telling me that just because you love the first job you arent taking double the money to relocate

no one is saying 30 a year...the rumor of what he wants is 25 a year

Harry Dunne said:

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Another thing I wanted to post was that Correa's quote about the offer being "really low" made me laugh.

Look, I will never begrudge a man for getting his money. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to take care of his family for life, I get it. That said, if he really wanted to stay in Houston, I don't see how much more than $120 million a man could possibly need.

I'm sure he loves Houston, but I don't buy this Astros for life stuff. These guys are all mercenaries. No judgment, but let's be real about that.

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If he can get 220 M on the open market then I would say an offer of 55% of that is really low.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Another thing I wanted to post was that Correa's quote about the offer being "really low" made me laugh.

Look, I will never begrudge a man for getting his money. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to take care of his family for life, I get it. That said, if he really wanted to stay in Houston, I don't see how much more than $120 million a man could possibly need.

I'm sure he loves Houston, but I don't buy this Astros for life stuff. These guys are all mercenaries. No judgment, but let's be real about that.

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So you would do a sales Job in San Antonio for $100,000
or
You could do the exact same job in Nashville for $200,000

your telling me that just because you love the first job you arent taking double the money to relocate

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The difference between 100 and 200k per year changes your quality of life a lot more than the difference between 20 and 25 million. You're comparing a guy worried about paying for his kids' college to a guy whose grandchildren will be well taken care of if he isn't a moron.

Plus there's no way he's going to get double (annually) what he's being offered. It's more like staying in SA for 100 when you're being offered 120 to go to Nashville. I think most people would stay if they really loved San Antonio and their job.

Farmer1906 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Another thing I wanted to post was that Correa's quote about the offer being "really low" made me laugh.

Look, I will never begrudge a man for getting his money. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to take care of his family for life, I get it. That said, if he really wanted to stay in Houston, I don't see how much more than $120 million a man could possibly need.

I'm sure he loves Houston, but I don't buy this Astros for life stuff. These guys are all mercenaries. No judgment, but let's be real about that.

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If he can get 220 M on the open market then I would say an offer of 55% of that is really low.

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I can't believe a team would give a guy who has had one healthy season $37M a year, but if that's really the market then I totally agree.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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How convenient

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Dude made his bed and now refuses to be in the same room as it.

JJxvi said:

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Where are you getting $37 million a year from. He's not going to approach that. He could get to $220 total value but it would be for more guaranteed years.

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Farmer is telling me he's only being offered 55% of what he can get on the open market.

20 is 55% of $36.7M

Total guaranteed money.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fansided.com/2021/03/26/mlb-rumors-5-teams-trade-offer-astros-carlos-correa/amp/

Interesting good for thought if they wanted to pivot to trading Correa rather than hoping free agency pans out. I'm not sure I see any of those teams making those deals unless they can sign him but the Cards package in particular would interest me since DeJong can immediately slide in at SS and Carlson at CF. Best combination of helping now and several more years.

Did we know this
Former Julia Morales his daughter on our track team

astros4545 said:

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Did we know this
Former Julia Morales his daughter on our track team

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Patti Smith's husband was my head football coach at Klein Oak

Farmer1906 said:

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Total guaranteed money.

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Over how many years?

She cut out the logo and taped it upside down.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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So if he is just looking at those metrics then we can take $300mm off the table for him. He's not at Lindor's level at almost all of those.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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How convenient

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Who knew you could injured hitting on 15 year olds.

SI put out a trash article today about Altuve having the yips. Its pretty much a hit piece but there was something interesting in there if its true.

one small risk Correa is taking by not signing an extension now...

if both Tucker and Yordan have monster years...the more the 'stros will think they can get by without him

bearkatag15 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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So if he is just looking at those metrics then we can take $300mm off the table for him. He's not at Lindor's level at almost all of those.

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You sure about that?

Career fWAR, rWAR, OPS, wRC+
Player A - 19.4, 26.2, .833, 127
Player B - 29.2, .28.8, 833, 118

Well, it won't be long before we see how Altuve is doing. He's probably still a better option at 2nd than anyone else, except maybe Diaz. Who knows if he could pull off the Biggio-esque switch to center.