xHP & HP+ is off the charts

Farmer1906 said:

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xHP & HP+ is off the charts

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Supposedly he had a 198 HP+ in his final year of Venezuelan ball. That's how Luhnow initially found him.

Champion Energy has to be getting their butts kicked. Astros going to go into budget slashing mode?

I doubt it

Crane makes his money from his own freight/logistics company right? I think he sits on some boards, but not Champion I don't think.

Farmer1906 said:

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Crane makes his money from his own freight/logistics company right? I think he sits on some boards, but not Champion I don't think.

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That's correct.

2 bums that couldn't make the Sox 40 man for a fairly highly regarded catching prospect plus another prospect. What are the Rays thinking?

Surprised the Red Sox didn't immediately add those guys to the 40 after the Rays expressed interest

I did a quick glance at them. They can strike guys out. One of them had a fairly decent sinker. Guess we'll see if Tampa can perform some magic on them.

astros4545 said:

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I think Straw is entering Tyler White territory where people will be rooting against him

Gonna make this thread a beating

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I won't be talking shti about Strawman like I did with the "Great White"

The Rays don't care about rankings. They traded Liberatore last year for Jose Martinez and Arozarena (who was a fringe top 10 prospect for the Cardinals).

bearkatag15 said:

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astros4545 said:

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I think Straw is entering Tyler White territory where people will be rooting against him

Gonna make this thread a beating

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I won't be talking shti about Strawman like I did with the "Great White"

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I like Straw. I think he can be a great tool in As a 4th OF and pinch runner with the ceiling to become a plus defensive CF.

We also don't have another realistic option other than Straw right now. With White he was taking ABs away from Yuli.

Ha. To be fair Arozerana had very good minor league stats in 2019 but was old for still being a minor leaguer. The Rays seem to make a living off late bloomer types. Randy was 25 as a rook, Brosseau 25, Wendle did nothing before 28, ditto for Anderson and basically their entire pen.

I have to admit to the thread.... I am absolutely drinking the koolaid when it comes to our pitching staff.

Lance gave a detailed breakdown of his pitching grips with pitching ninja. He talks about his cutter he started using more in the postseason vs TB. He ended up with 11Ks and 1 ER (4 total... thanks Altuve) that game. He very sparingly threw it last season. But when he did it was his most effective pitch. I think that will lead to him throwing fewer sinkers (his worst pitch) by replacing it somewhat but also being able to go to his change up more which might be nastier than his curve.



Also, if y'all haven't seen the Urquidy article on Crawfish Boxes, I recommend it.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/2/15/22282180/pulling-back-the-curtain-on-the-astros-prime-breakout-candidate

Here's the TLDR paragraph.

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Numerous indicators suggest Urquidy is primed for a breakout season. His stuff is improved and his ability to locate has long been a strength.

Sarris, who has access to advanced stats such as QOS+ (quality of stuff) and Command+, is quite bullish on Urquidy.

The components are in place, Urquidy just has to put it all together. His 2020 results were mostly underwhelming but this year he'll have a full, (hopefully) normal season, and that could be the difference.

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I'm bullish on the staff talent wise. My concern is who besides Greinke can give you 150+ quality innings?

I am willing to wager Framber can.

But we don't need 150+ from each. We'll work in Garcia, Pruitt, Whitley, etc and fill gaps. No one has a rotation of 5 horses.

In reality we need them to pitch just enough to win the division and be healthy for the postseason. As long as we do that it doesn't matter if they throw 150+ or 125 each.

Tatis.....Jesus

MaxPower said:

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I'm bullish on the staff talent wise. My concern is who besides Greinke can give you 150+ quality innings?

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Grienke is a horse who hasn't thrown fewer than 158 innings since 2007. Beyond that, the cliff. LMJ has thrown around 120 innings in three separate seasons, never more than 128. I'm not sure Javier, Urquidy and Valdez have thrown 150 innings combined in their busiest seasons... and that's not even considering the quality of those innings.

The team is definitely trading on hope and projection at this point for the 2021 rotation. That said, I agree with your optimism and am looking forward to a surprisingly good staff.

Mr.Bond said:

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Tatis.....Jesus

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That's not the worst deal in the world for San Diego. Of course any 14 year deal is going to have a ton of risk because anything can happen. But if he stays a top tier player and hits free agency at 26-27. There is little doubt in my mind he could get a 10 year or longer deal for 30 M. If he makes 40 M in his 3 years of Arb he'd break even. I think those #s are conservative. dad is getting a discount by doing this early.

Farmer1906 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Tatis.....Jesus

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BRB...gonna go raid the money tree that's clearly growing in San Diego.

the Padres have lost their mind...and then some

I disagree.

They're paying big money to Tatis and Machado long term. Those guys are very good.

The bad contract of Hosmer & Myers will be up after 22.

We'll see how the Kim deal works out but if it hits then they're going to be underpaying him.

The Darvish & Snell deals are very fair. Maybe they overpaid for Drew Palm, but no I'm that bullpen is all that highly paid outside of him.

They're going to join LA paying the Luxury tax now but they're no where near them yet. I guess they have to if they want to compete in that division.

I think that's a good deal for Tatis and poor for the Padres. They took on a lot of guarantee and didn't seem to get much discount. As much Astros fans complain about Correa's injuries, Tatis had a vertebrae fracture when he was only 20.

Wait, is this actually true? It's funny as is even if it's not but holy crap

What's the MLB attendance policy this year? Based on Houston's code?

Farmer1906 said:

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Here's another from ESPN (paywall).

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Houston Astros (No. 28 farm system)
1. Jeremy Pena, SS, 50 FV (110)
2. Forrest Whitley, RHP, 50 FV (116)
3. Hunter Brown, RHP, 45+ FV (120)
4. Jairo Solis, RHP, 45 FV
5. Freudis Nova, SS, 45 FV
6. Luis Garcia, RHP, 45 FV
7. Bryan Abreu, RHP, 45 FV
8. Korey Lee, C, 40+ FV
9. Colin Barber, CF, 40+ FV
10. Alex Santos, RHP, 40 FV

Top 10 reports

Pena is a popular breakout pick who just missed the top 100 because, as with a lot of solid prospects, we just needed a little more recent performance to have the conviction to sneak him on the end of a list so keep an eye on his early season performance. He was a glove-first college prospect at Maine but has worked on his swing and strength, with average raw power, close to average contact skills and at least an above-average glove at shortstop. Nova is still pretty raw but still has big upside, with above-average raw power and a shortstop fit. Barber is a plus runner who fits in center field and has worked to improve his offensive game, with a shot for league-average offensive production, which would make him an above-average everyday player. Lee was a late-rising college catcher in the 2019 draft out of Cal, and has everyday upside with a plus arm, plus raw power, and roughly average contact and defensive skills.

Whitley continues to frustrate evaluators with his ups and down, but he still has three plus pitches and some starter traits. A career path like Andrew Miller (hyped prospect, faltered as starter, found a home in relief) now makes some sense. Brown, like Pena, is arrow up and could be working onto a top-100 list with a strong first half in 2021. He was a pop-up small-school college prospect in 2019 and has taken a step forward, reaching 99 mph at the alternate site with an above average to plus slider, with the remaining questions around fastball command and changeup quality. Solis checks the scouting boxes, flashing three plus pitches and decent control like Whitley can, but without the same kind of track record, in part due to a 2018 Tommy John surgery. He's only made 11 appearances in full-season ball but could explode in 2021 with a healthy year.

Garcia was one of many rookies to break onto the big league roster in 2020, and has a solid average repertoire who could either play as a No. 4 starter or setup man. Abreu has dynamic stuff akin to Josh James and some chance to start, but likely gets another MLB shot in 2021 and settles in late relief. Santos has a high spin rate, TrackMan-friendly profile and is a projectable cold-weather arm who may take a little time but has the pieces to be a mid-rotation starter.

Others of note

SS Grae Kessinger's (11) grandfather played for 16 seasons in the big leagues, his uncle had a big league cup of coffee and his dad also played pro ball. He's got a solid feel for the game and solid average tools that give him a good chance to hang around for a long time as a utility infielder.

CF Jordan Brewer (14) is now 23 with only 16 pro games experience, but still has the loud tools (70 speed, plus arm, above-average raw power) that made him a 2019 third rounder out of Michigan.

LF Chas McCormick (15) is a bats right/throws left fourth outfielder type with solid-average tools and strong strike-zone discipline.

RF Pedro Leon (19) got $4 million from the Astros in the most recent international class and hasn't played in many organized games of any sort recently, but has the plus raw power and arm strength to profile everyday in right field if the hit tool plays in pro ball.

CF Zach Daniels

RHP Tyler Ivey (12) has performed well his whole pro career by relying on funk and guile -- that may or may not work in the big leagues -- to go with solid-average stuff headlined by an above-average curveball.


RHP Shawn Dubin (16) also has some funk, but a clearer fit in short stints due to a plus fastball/slider combination, with 2021 his chance to prove it in the upper minors. 2020 third-round pick

RHP Tyler Brown (23) was a closer for Vanderbilt, but has the stuff and feel to potentially start, or go back to being a middle reliever with above average stuff.

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Found this blurb on SB Nation about Whitley seeing action in spring training. Wouldn't this be a great launch point?

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For him, it'll mark his first action since a good showing in the Arizona Fall League, back in 2019. That time, he threw 25 innings of 22 hits, eight earned runs, nine bases on balls, and 32 strikeouts. That's the Whitley the Astros are hoping to see this spring.

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Breakout stars based on potential, again from ESPN:

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Houston Astros:

Colin Barber, CF and Alex Santos, RHP

Barber is a 2018 fourth-rounder who got late-second-round money ($1 million) while Santos got late-second-round money ($1.25 million) when he went in the compensation round after the second round in 2019 -- the first pick the Astros had due to the penalties from the sign-stealing scandal. The early returns on both are positive, but only Barber (a solid 28 games in rookie ball) has a pro stat line to show for it.

Barber is a plus runner who profiles in center field and Houston loves his makeup, already seeing improvements in both his swing and defensive work in 2020.
Santos had some of the best spin rates and pitch design of the 2020 crop of prep arms. He held his own in instructional league after a long layoff while facing an older level of competition and could post gaudy lower-level strikeout numbers due to his fastball/curveball combo.

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How will this affect the market for Carlos?

It locks up a player until he's 36 and puts a reasonable yearly salary (<25 M) on a better player than Carlos. Now it's different because he signed it 4 years before FA. In the end, I doubt it'll play into all that much at all.