So Lance is going to be butt hurt all year if we tong extend him?

He's a tough pitcher to peg a value to. I could see Astros willing to do like 3/$45 and Lance asking 5/$90. I have no idea where they'd settle. Or if a settlement would be in either party's best interest.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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I find this fascinating because I don't recall a player having pumped themselves quite this heavily to stay where they are. I hope they can find a way to extend both guys. It will be an interesting decision for Crane. If you can extend both on contracts you think are reasonable (or even team friendly), are you going to let the luxury tax get in the way? It doesn't change your actual payroll in 2021, the luxury tax is minimal (might cost them $3-4 million for both guys), and there are really no other ramifications (no lost picks, international pool restrictions, etc).

One thing I would note in regards to extensions is that management may be waiting to see how many fans they can get in the stands. I'm a season ticket holder and still have not heard about how tickets will work this year. I've contacted my rep directly this week and even he didn't know. If I get an email they plan on full go all season I will take that as a positive sign on the extension front.

Texaggie7nine said:

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Caption

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"So I told Crane and Click I would be willing to sign for $280 million for 10 years. What do think my chances are?"

Deluxe said:

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He's a tough pitcher to peg a value to. I could see Astros willing to do like 3/$45 and Lance asking 5/$90. I have no idea where they'd settle. Or if a settlement would be in either party's best interest.

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I think the middle is reasonable. 4 years and roughly $60m.

MaxPower said:

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Deluxe said:

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He's a tough pitcher to peg a value to. I could see Astros willing to do like 3/$45 and Lance asking 5/$90. I have no idea where they'd settle. Or if a settlement would be in either party's best interest.

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I think the middle is reasonable. 4 years and roughly $60m.

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I have a hard time tying up that much money in a starter who hasn't pitched for than 128 innings in a year and last year showed he couldn't pitch on the road

BCSGrubber said:

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So Lance is going to be butt hurt all year if we tong extend him?

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So we're mad now a current player wants to stay here publicly? We're you rather him say I can't wait to hit the market and make as much money as possible?

BCSGrubber said:

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MaxPower said:

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Deluxe said:

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He's a tough pitcher to peg a value to. I could see Astros willing to do like 3/$45 and Lance asking 5/$90. I have no idea where they'd settle. Or if a settlement would be in either party's best interest.

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I think the middle is reasonable. 4 years and roughly $60m.

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I have a hard time tying up that much money in a starter who hasn't pitched for than 128 innings in a year and last year showed he couldn't pitch on the road

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Times are changing. Workhorse studs get $200 million. If you can get 120-150 good innings that's worth $15m a year. It's a better deal than what we would pay on the open market next year if we have to acquire someone else.

From a fan's perspective, 4/$60 seems reasonable. Agree there.

But if you're Lance, do you leave a year and potentially $30mm on the table to stay with the Astros? I guess that would be putting his money where his mouth is when he says he wants to stay. But that's also assuming the Astros would be comfortable giving him the fourth year, which I think is questionable given what we know about the regime that Click came from.

Part of me also thinks the Astros want to let this year play out before making a commitment to Lance. See how the young guys develop and how they project going forward. Like if Framber continues his upward trajectory, JV recovers and wants to return, and a few other guys in our deep stable of arms emerge, our front office may be more inclined to let Lance walk.

I doubt he gets a deal because, as you said, this team loves flexibility. I personally would do that deal. Flexibility is less valuable when you don't have a top 10 farm system like we once had and pitching isn't like other positions. You need 7 or 8 starters to get through a season. It's almost impossible to have too much and, if you do, you can always trade it to fill other holes.

Even if you decides Lance isn't in the future because Framber, Urquidy, Javier, Whitley, & Garcia all look excellent, you're still going out and getting another starter in free agency. You're just doing it to a lesser guy for shorter years.

I think Lance is going to make less than some on here expect. With his durability issues, I think he's capped for years and total value. He may end up with what old man Morton got. 2 years 30 M with a club option for a 3rd year at 15 M.

4/60 is a good deal IMO from the team's perspective, and I'm not all that high on LMJ. He's not efficient and has not shown durability to this point... that's a bad combination, but it still seems like a reasonable price considering a comparable veteran replacement.

Here is something to think about when discussing Lance. Only 26 starting pitchers currently are on deals of 4 or more year.

Dallas Keuchel only got a 3 year 55 M after owning a Cy Young, being an absolute workhorse, and he had to wait it out to get it.

Sonny Gray, who is a solid comp to Lance, got 3 year 30.5 M.

Kyle Hendricks, another good comp who Lance isn't as good as, got 4 year 55.5 M.

I dunno. Ryu at 32 got 3 years, $54M going over 126 innings once the previous 5 years. Mad Bum at 29 got $72M despite obvious decline and over 130 innings once the previous 3 years. McCullers is younger than those 2 and, unlike Bum, still has his stuff.

The years will just be give and take. If you only go 3 years he will get $17-18 per year. If you go 4 then $15 more likely. So the question becomes whether you want the extra year (and it's risk) or would rather pay a higher average salary.

I was just coming to post some of the terrible ones too. I was high in Wheeler, but damn he got paid. Eovaldi rode the championship hype train. You already mentioned Madbum and holy **** what a trash contract. What on earth we're they thinking.

Hendricks was 2 years from free agency and already 29 so not really a good comp.

Gray's extension helps the Astros cause but looks like the outlier. I dunno why he signed that contract.

Farmer1906 said:

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BCSGrubber said:

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So Lance is going to be butt hurt all year if we tong extend him?

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So we're mad now a current player wants to stay here publicly? We're you rather him say I can't wait to hit the market and make as much money as possible?

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My main point is if we offer him lower than he wants is he going to mentally be screwed up because the Astros "don't want him"?

And watch these games end up being reduced innings....

bearkatag15 said:

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07ag said:

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that is awful. no televised games for 2 weeks? There would be plenty of people willing to watch these

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Broadcasted games start after the cutoff point where games can be 5 innings (3/11 I think). They can still shorten them to 7 innings, but in spring training, once you get past the 5th inning, it's a minor league exhibition anyway.

Lance McCullers (like say George Springer) is not a player whos future production is going to be a cornerstone of a franchise. I like him, but the more he talks about this the whinier he sounds

JJxvi said:

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Lance McCullers (like say George Springer) is not a player whos future production is going to be a cornerstone of a franchise. I like him, but the more he talks about this the whinier he sounds

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What should he say when asked?

That just means his extra years are probably around 2 years 30-35 M. Still cheap.

Great to hear Robert and Sparky

Well Bielak isn't making the best case for himself today

I would love 4-55 for Lance, with innings pitched bonuses...

Hit 150 innings, $3 mill bonus or something

https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/miami-marlins-spring-training-2495

Marlins radio broadcast with a fixed video from the press box.

I've mentioned this before but unless lance makes a move to the bullpen starting next season I think his career will be short and or injury riddled.

He's already had multiple arm issues including surgery, he very rarely can get deep into games bc his pitch count gets high a lot of times by the 4th inning and most importantly his usage of breaking stuff.

If he is open and understands he might need to make a change to the BP to prolong his career I'd consider resigning him. But imo lance sees himself as wanting to be some bulldog, workhorse, inning eating #2SP and he just isn't and might look at that as a demotion.

Hard curves and sliders pitch after pitch after pitch creates such torque on a pitchers arm I just don't see him holding up unless he drastically changes his love affair with his hard breaking stuff

zgood10 said:

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Great to hear Robert and Sparky

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Yepp. WGC on the TV muted with CC and listening to the boys call the ballgame.