*****Official Houston Astros 2020-2021 Offseason Thread*****

400,591 Views | 4530 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by tjack16
MaxPower
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Hypothetically, would you sign Springer if it meant you had to deal Bregman? From a business aspect, keep in mind that if Springer leaves you just get a draft pick while trading Bregman probably nets you a big haul of young players.
redline248
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AG
The 2 issues that make it difficult to do this are the age of each player and the fact Houston is rebuilding. Yes, we could add some to the pitching staff, but I don't think it would take a player like Bregman to do it.

On the other hand, you would likely get a good return of prospects, and I think it wouldn't be that difficult to find an above average defender to play 3B. What you're really going to have a harder time replacing is Bregman's bat. And of course, it all hinges on being able to also guarantee signing Correa.




In other words, this is a terrible business plan
Deluxe
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You make some good points, but our front office might look at it a little bit differently. Setting aside Brantley for a moment (a separate set of decision factors), losing Springer means we're replacing an outfielder and DH next year.

Offensively, the gain from replacing Diaz/Reddick with Yordan (fingers crossed) at DH mostly offsets the year-over-year loss of downgrading from Springer to Straw/<insert average OF free agent>. I think our front office could live with that.

Kinda like how we lost Cole and Miley last year, but if you compare opening day rotations of 19 and 20, we basically replaced them with Greinke and LMJ.

But if we're not planning to make a hard push to keep Brantley, the analysis might look different. We certainly couldn't justify significantly downgrading TWO outfield spots, especially given the lack of options that you outlined... unless we're content on pursuing a semi-rebuild tact.
Lonestar_Ag09
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what????

How is losing Springer needing to replace an OF and a DH when your very next statement is about our Rookie of the Year DH....who isnt going to play OF
Deluxe
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2020
OF: Springer
DH: Diaz/Reddick

2021
OF: Straw/TBD (if we don't resign George)
DH: Yordan

Year over year offensive production from the two positions combined is basically a wash if Yordan is healthy.
scrimp
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redline248 said:

Did y'all know Raley has a $2M option for 2021?
Quote:

Raley, 32, is under team control for next season, too. As part of the deal he signed with the Reds to come back from Korea, his contract features a $2-million club option for 2021. The Astros must notify him whether they will exercise it or decline it within five days of the end of the World Series. The decision seems obvious, especially given that the bullpen is a weakness of their roster and injured closer Roberto Osuna is a non-tender candidate. Bringing back Raley would make for one fewer reliever they have to acquire this offseason.
https://theathletic.com/2093829/2020/10/22/brooks-raley-was-a-shrewd-add-for-the-astros-and-they-can-retain-him-for-2021/
Raley was a great pickup this year. I would think the Astros would pick that option pretty quickly--2M seems like a pretty good deal for the team.

It's kind of crazy to look at the payroll for the pitching staff this year. Info from Spottrac, except Raley from article in TheAthletic (base, non shortened season adjusted):

JV $33M (injured list)
ZG $32M
Osuna $10M (IL)
Pressly $8.75M
LMJ $4.1M
Joe Smith $4M (2020 exempt/reserve)
Peacock $3.9M (IL)
Devo $2M (IL)
Raley $1M (from TheAthletic article)
Biagini $1M (DFA-opted for FA)
James $590k
Pruitt $584k (IL)
Valdez $582k
Urquidy $575k
Sneed $568k
Javier $563k
Paredes $563k
Taylor $563k
Scrubb $563k
Garcia (shows $18k--assuming that's an error)

It's somewhat insane to see how top heavy and bottom heavy salary wise our pitching is.
BCSGrubber
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Deluxe said:

2020
OF: Springer
DH: Diaz/Reddick

2021
OF: Straw/TBD (if we don't resign George)
DH: Yordan

Year over year offensive production from the two positions combined is basically a wash.


I would rather have Diaz or reddick up with two outs in the playoffs that straw any day.
Deluxe
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I agree but that's not the point. The point is how would the front office look at generally maintaining year over year offensive production if we don't re-sign Springer. Because obviously we're not going to sign/trade for a big name outfielder to replace him.
Farmer1906
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We're going to lose key pieces. We lost Cole due to FA. We lost JV due to injury. Did we sign 2 aces magically? Did any two people come in and replace those 2? Nope. It's not possible. But between McCullers coming back from injury, Framber developing, and a couple of rookies coming. We build up a strong pitching staff.

When its not possible to just resign everyone, we're going to have to continue to do things like this. Tucker is going to continue to get better and develop, we're going to sign and develop other guys. There isn't a George Springer that 4 years younger and 40 M cheaper waiting for us to scoop up. But we can still build a productive outfield. Maybe it won't hit as many HRs, but it may run a few more down. It may not be the same 3 every day staters. It may be a platoon. Good organizations (I think we are with Click) are going to make moves to transition when stars age or leave in FA.
mazag08
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Deluxe, I hear you.. but I don't like comparing 2021 to 2020. 2020 we were extremely inconsistent. Though we were also inconsistent at times in 19, it's really just the playoffs that made it feel that way, mainly due to Yordan struggling (and Bregman, bad trend he needs to buck next year).

Comparing 2021 without Springer (and not factoring in Brantley), here's how we compare to 2019..



While Yordan makes the loss of Springer hurt compared to last year, looking at the team that we felt SHOULD have won the world series, replacing Springer with Yordan doesn't give you the same feel that we can win it all, especially without Cole.
Farmer1906
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That assumes we sit on our hands and only keep Brantley.

Also. 2019 is kind of a high bar to compare all offenses to. That team had a 125 wRC+!
mazag08
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Farmer1906 said:

That assumes we sit on our hands and only keep Brantley.

Also. 2019 is kind of a high bar to compare all offenses to. That team had a 125 wRC+!
But that's the kind of offense we can pull off if we keep Springer. And we will NEED it with a pitching staff of young guns. i don't think we can compete for a world series, with our pitching staff from this past year, and no Springer. That's just my opinion.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Deluxe said:

2020
OF: Springer
DH: Diaz/Reddick

2021
OF: Straw/TBD (if we don't resign George)
DH: Yordan

Year over year offensive production from the two positions combined is basically a wash if Yordan is healthy.
Maybe it is your wording but what youre showing and what you wrote isnt the same...

You said were replacing an OF and a DH but were getting our DH back and replacing an OF....and our offense wasnt very good this year so saying having Yordan back is a wash from having Springer this year isnt a wash at all...not to mention that they are very different hitters, different skill on the basepath, different lineup placement/makeup
redline248
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I, personally, would rather see Springer age in Houston than leave as a FA.

If we don't sign him, we are looking at Tucker as our only sure OF. Maybe Straw figures it out with more than a handful of at bats per week, but I'm not that confident. I guess there are 2 options to consider:

Sign Springer and have him and Tucker anchor the OF
Sign Brantley and another (cheap) Reddick type to platoon with Straw

Obvious 3rd option, which is the worst, let them both walk and deal with Straw everyday and some FA to platoon with Yordan.

What does the farm look like in terms of OF prospects?
Lonestar_Ag09
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redline248 said:

I, personally, would rather see Springer age in Houston than leave as a FA.

If we don't sign him, we are looking at Tucker as our only sure OF. Maybe Straw figures it out with more than a handful of at bats per week, but I'm not that confident. I guess there are 2 options to consider:

Sign Springer and have him and Tucker anchor the OF
Sign Brantley and another (cheap) Reddick type to platoon with Straw

Obvious 3rd option, which is the worst, let them both walk and deal with Straw everyday and some FA to platoon with Yordan.

What does the farm look like in terms of OF prospects?
Ill say this again....

YORDAN.
ALVAREZ.
IS.
NOT.
PLAYING.
OUTFIELD.
NEXT.
YEAR.

The fact you have to add someone to this club why would you play the double knee surgery DH in the OF where he could reinjury himself and provide inadequate defense when you can sign an OF who would do better and keep the elite DH at DH.....If Alvarez is playing OF who would you have DH instead?
redline248
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Say it all you want, but guys get days off, or play DH but not the field, or get injured. The injuries Yordan had are not exclusive to him playing OF. He got injured last year from a foul ball while he was hitting. It's not ideal, and you wouldn't put him in left in some massive park with a lot of ground to cover, but it's a 162 game season and it is unlikely the only thing he does all year is play DH and never step foot on the field.
mazag08
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redline248 said:

I, personally, would rather see Springer age in Houston than leave as a FA.

If we don't sign him, we are looking at Tucker as our only sure OF. Maybe Straw figures it out with more than a handful of at bats per week, but I'm not that confident. I guess there are 2 options to consider:

Sign Springer and have him and Tucker anchor the OF
Sign Brantley and another (cheap) Reddick type to platoon with Straw

Obvious 3rd option, which is the worst, let them both walk and deal with Straw everyday and some FA to platoon with Yordan.

What does the farm look like in terms of OF prospects?

AAA

Ronnie Dawson - Age 25
2nd Round - 2016 Draft
2019 Corpus - .212 Avg, .320 OBP, .403 SLG, .723 OPS, 17 HR's, 20 Doubles, 2 triples, 50 RBI's, .33 BB/SO, 13 Stolen Bases
Career minors avg of .245

Drew Ferguson - Age 28
19th Round, 2015 Draft
2019 Round Rock - .281 Avg, .395 OBP, .440 SLG, .836 OPS, 11 HR, 19 Doubles, 6 Triples, 57 RBI, .64 BB/SO, 27 Stolen Bases
Career minors avg of .293

Stephen Wrenn - Age 26
6th Round - 2016 Draft
2019 Corpus - .247 avg, .336 OBP, .411 SLG, .747 OPS, 8 HR, 22 Doubles, 8 Triples, 44 RBI, .39 BB/SO, 24 Stolen Bases
Career minors avg of .253

Other names of note: Carmen Benedetti, Corey Julks, Jake Meyers

The three in AAA would likely get a shot in camp, but those guys are just more Straw's at the plate.
Farmer1906
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Mathguy64
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One of those is not like the others.
CFTXAG10
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Tags' inbox mentioned these potential targets if Springer signs elsewhere: Marcell Ozuna, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jake Marisnick, Joc Pederson, and Robbie Grossman.

^ One of those guys to pair with Brantley and Tucker.
Lonestar_Ag09
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redline248 said:

Say it all you want, but guys get days off, or play DH but not the field, or get injured. The injuries Yordan had are not exclusive to him playing OF. He got injured last year from a foul ball while he was hitting. It's not ideal, and you wouldn't put him in left in some massive park with a lot of ground to cover, but it's a 162 game season and it is unlikely the only thing he does all year is play DH and never step foot on the field.
That's not what is being claimed above. I'm not saying he wont play occasionally out there, I'm saying if he plays 150+ games out of 162 in 2021 that 115+ will be at DH...therefore he is our DH and spells others in LF on days off. Maybe he plays a few more in the field if he improves at 1B and can play there some
Lonestar_Ag09
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CFTXAG10 said:

Tags' inbox mentioned these potential targets if Springer signs elsewhere: Marcell Ozuna, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jake Marisnick, Joc Pederson, and Robbie Grossman.

^ One of those guys to pair with Brantley and Tucker.
So he is assuming we resign Bratley then? Personally I go on the low end if we have Tucker and Bratley, someone to split time with Straw...I like Grossman or Marisnick in that spot
CFTXAG10
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Full quote from Tags (credit MLB.com):

Quote:

"I see the Astros signing either Brantley or Springer, but not both. And of those, Brantley could be signed for less money and a shorter term, and you'd feel good about his production not dropping off in his mid-30s. An outfield of Brantley, Bradley and Tucker would be a good one."

Jake Marisnick, Joc Pederson and Robbie Grossman are also free agents.
Also has nothing to do with re-signing or not but rumor is Springer is going to be a father soon. Heard the other day at the juicebox that his wife Charlise is pregnant.
Farmer1906
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Which one?
Mathguy64
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Tucker is not a Gold Glove outfielder. He gets a bad rap for looking lazier than he really is but he's just not that level. For one thing he's got no arm at all.
JJxvi
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The problem the Astros will have is that Springer is an immensely loveable character and Kyle Tucker is, well, not that.

The reality, however, is that of all of the players that make up the core of this franchise. George Springer is the one for which the franchise has managed to turn out a very credible replacement (Kyle Tucker)
Farmer1906
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I would agree he's not an elite defensive OFer. Gold glove is just a silly award. However, he's well above average and the next tier down from elite.

He's in the 94% in outs above average, 57% is jump (reaction and route), and 70% in sprint speed.
Mathguy64
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The only thing the bothers me is his arm. Teams are going to take advantage of that.
Teddy Perkins
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n_touch
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Teddy Perkins said:


Helps with the Brantley discussion.
tjack16
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n_touch said:

Teddy Perkins said:


Helps with the Brantley discussion.


Maybe not. He can't be a full time DH here if Yordan is healthy
Bulldog73
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True, and he certainly can play LF for most anyone, but it does mean NL teams will have on fewer spot on their roster for the professional hitter.
redline248
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https://theathletic.com/news/mlb-investigation-says-ex-astros-gm-luhnow-was-aware-of-sign-stealing-sources/m0SkfzdABFl4

About to read this right now
redline248
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Ah, nevermind. All is said is Lunhow denied knowledge in his recent interview, but sources say he was emailed notice of the sign stealing, though he claims he didn't read all despite responding.

Nothing new. Says "story is developing"

I hate those kind of articles... Literally 2 paragraphs.
Fat Bib Fortuna
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So, thought we'd do as suggested above and have a tournament of all-time greatest Astros moments to take the sting out of last week and make the off-season move a bit faster.

Any nominations you can put in this thread. If you see one you like, blue star it. The more blue stars, the more likely it is to make the field.

After some consideration, here's what I think serves us best.

Moments qualify as :

Great plays / memorable plays in a game: Someone stealing home, the last out of any of the playoffs series, a game-winning homer, etc.

A milestone game: Meaning, any of the no-hitters, someone hitting 3 HR, Biggio's 3000th hit game, Nolan breaking Walter Johnson's K record, etc. Game 7 of the 2017 World Series does not fall here. Game 7 of the 2017 World Series is not a moment, the last out, or Springer's HR in that game are.

Big trades, free-agent signings, retirements: Trading for Verlander, signing Nolan Ryan, somebody getting called up, etc.

Off-the-field stuff: MMP opens, Jim Crane buys the team, John McMullen finally is taken to hell by Satan, etc.

What I started doing in my thousands of Tournaments on Entertainment during the pandemic was taking the whole list, getting it close to a number that makes sense (32, 64, 128, etc.) and then randomizing the moments into groups of 4 - those go up against each other and the top percentages make the field and start going head to head.

I'll do some research to make sure nothing egregious is left out, and that the night I threw out the first pitch in 1992 makes the field. Thanks for reading all this BS!

Nominations effective immediately, will try to start the she-bang on Monday.
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