Preseason. He's already 28 and has been garbage in the minors.
*****Official Houston Astros 2020-2021 Offseason Thread*****
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Last: 2 yr ago by tjack16
Harry Dunne said:Not trying to be a smartass, but based on what do you think was he finally putting it together?agproducer said:Not that we were counting on him this year, but that sucks for the kid. It seemed like he was finally putting it together.Farmer1906 said:
Welp
I should have been more specific. It looks like he'd been putting it together mentally. In his fangraphs interview, it seemed like he'd grown up a bit and was actually talking his career seriously.
I see chandler still getting his feelings hurt over stupid stuff.
This is one time Chandler is right on point.
Add Ferrell to the worthless pitching draft picks by the Astros.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Marvin said:
Add Ferrell to the worthless pitching draft picks by the Astros.
I actually grew up with him. Lived on the same street as me in college station during elementary school. His dad took us to monster jam at reed arena one time. Lost touch with him when we moved to Houston in junior high
Sad to see his career hasn't panned out. He was really good at TCU.
https://fb.watch/45nP6kURcl/
Why does it seem like all of our fast players are such terrible base runners? Edit, was Siri. Still, why do our base runners suck
Why does it seem like all of our fast players are such terrible base runners? Edit, was Siri. Still, why do our base runners suck
Just how good was Jake Odorizzi in 2019?
Pretty damn good. And if that is the guy we get this year and next then we've got a bargain or at least our money's worth.
Jake's WAR was 4.3 which is a very respectable 20th in baseball. The thing is, he did it in only 159 innings. Only Clevinger had a higher WAR in fewer innings. If you use this super made-up stat in WAR/IP then he moves up to 10th.
Let's get a few more numbers out of the way. This is filtered to pitchers with 100 IP or more since he didn't quite qualify.
23rd in ERA (3.51)
15th in FIP (3.36)
57th in xFIP (4.33)
28th in K% (27.1%)
82nd in BB% (8.1%)
31st in K-BB% (19.0%)
34th in BA (.234)
36th in xBA (.230)
18th in SLG (.371)
43rd in xSLG (.398)
25th in wOBA (.287)
37th in xwOBA (.298)
What does all that mean? He's not an ace in the way more people think of it. But he was a top 30 starting pitcher, maybe top 20-25ish in 2019.
To circle back to the bargain I mentioned, 15 M is tied in 23rd most (avg) for starting pitchers. Assuming some top starters are still on their rookie deal this means Jake's money is fair at worst.
Now let's dive into the why. Why did Odorizzi go from back of the rotation starter to #2/3 type?
If you haven't already read the articles or listened to the interviews, he went and trained at Baseball Ranch in Florida. Here is a quote describing it.
This translated to his 91.1 MPH heater moving to 92.9 MPH (on avg) as well as improving spin from 2255 to 2236. That pitch generated about 7% more Whiffs and dropped his xwOBA by .029. His 4 seamer was valued at -19 runs. For comparison that same year Cole's 4 seamer was -36, Luis Castillo's Change Up -27, Morton's Curve -26. Odorizzi's heater was below avg in velo yet a top 20 pitch in baseball.
He also made a few more changes. He ditched his slider and started throwing his cutter more. His cutter, as well as the rest of his offspeed are pretty meh. Not terrible, not great. I am not sure what Strom has in mind with him. Maybe a small tweak will help.
The only other pitch that catches my eye a little is his splitfinger. His spin has dropped significantly from 18 to 19 to 20. For a splitfinger that is what you want. That way it drops more. Maybe he can take it from below avg to above average.
All and all, we got ourselves a solid arm for the rotation for the next 2-3 years. He's not cheap, but he's not going to prevent us from resigning Correa or McCullers or going out a finding a high-priced free agent. Strom might not have any magic for the heater since it's already good, but maybe he can get one of his secondary pitches even better.
Pretty damn good. And if that is the guy we get this year and next then we've got a bargain or at least our money's worth.
Jake's WAR was 4.3 which is a very respectable 20th in baseball. The thing is, he did it in only 159 innings. Only Clevinger had a higher WAR in fewer innings. If you use this super made-up stat in WAR/IP then he moves up to 10th.
Let's get a few more numbers out of the way. This is filtered to pitchers with 100 IP or more since he didn't quite qualify.
23rd in ERA (3.51)
15th in FIP (3.36)
57th in xFIP (4.33)
28th in K% (27.1%)
82nd in BB% (8.1%)
31st in K-BB% (19.0%)
34th in BA (.234)
36th in xBA (.230)
18th in SLG (.371)
43rd in xSLG (.398)
25th in wOBA (.287)
37th in xwOBA (.298)
What does all that mean? He's not an ace in the way more people think of it. But he was a top 30 starting pitcher, maybe top 20-25ish in 2019.
To circle back to the bargain I mentioned, 15 M is tied in 23rd most (avg) for starting pitchers. Assuming some top starters are still on their rookie deal this means Jake's money is fair at worst.
Now let's dive into the why. Why did Odorizzi go from back of the rotation starter to #2/3 type?
If you haven't already read the articles or listened to the interviews, he went and trained at Baseball Ranch in Florida. Here is a quote describing it.
Quote:
"I'd felt like I was out of whack mechanically. Health-wise I was good, but I needed to get more out of my body, maybe use my mechanics a little bit better, a little bit smoother. I did some weighted-ball stuff; I did a mobility program. I kind of unlocked some more torque in my body. I was able to separate my upper half from my lower half instead being like a one-piece everything goes at once, and it's stiff.
"With the changes I made, I have consistent velocity that's about two, two-and-a-half, miles per hour harder than what I'd normally thrown. Going from 91 to 93 has caused a big difference in my results this year. Hitters have to respect the change in velocity, plus it plays well with the rest of my pitches.
"Going there is something I'm really glad I did. I wouldn't say it was a leap-of-faith kind of thing. It's just that while I know myself, I needed somebody to kind of change my thought, if that makes sense. I needed someone to maybe give me some different drills, and unlock some different things. We were able to do that."
This translated to his 91.1 MPH heater moving to 92.9 MPH (on avg) as well as improving spin from 2255 to 2236. That pitch generated about 7% more Whiffs and dropped his xwOBA by .029. His 4 seamer was valued at -19 runs. For comparison that same year Cole's 4 seamer was -36, Luis Castillo's Change Up -27, Morton's Curve -26. Odorizzi's heater was below avg in velo yet a top 20 pitch in baseball.
He also made a few more changes. He ditched his slider and started throwing his cutter more. His cutter, as well as the rest of his offspeed are pretty meh. Not terrible, not great. I am not sure what Strom has in mind with him. Maybe a small tweak will help.
The only other pitch that catches my eye a little is his splitfinger. His spin has dropped significantly from 18 to 19 to 20. For a splitfinger that is what you want. That way it drops more. Maybe he can take it from below avg to above average.
All and all, we got ourselves a solid arm for the rotation for the next 2-3 years. He's not cheap, but he's not going to prevent us from resigning Correa or McCullers or going out a finding a high-priced free agent. Strom might not have any magic for the heater since it's already good, but maybe he can get one of his secondary pitches even better.
Crawfish Boxes dropped an article of Odorizzi. Basically a better version of what I posted.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/3/8/22317396/astros-assessing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-jake-odorizzis-game
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/3/8/22317396/astros-assessing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-jake-odorizzis-game
Good stuff. Thanks.
That was Jose Sirihtxag09 said:
https://fb.watch/45nP6kURcl/
****ing toro. Why does it seem like all of our fast players are such terrible base runners?
The other thing to note is Odorizzi was terrible the third time through the order even in his 2019 breakout. The league's ops increased by .250 from the first / second time through the order compared to third. That makes sense as a pitcher with weak off speed pitches. I expect him to get a quick hook often in 2020.Farmer1906 said:
Crawfish Boxes dropped an article of Odorizzi. Basically a better version of what I posted.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/3/8/22317396/astros-assessing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-jake-odorizzis-game
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/astros/
MLB.com updated the top 30 prospects for Each team. Pedro Leon is now Houston's #2 prospect
MLB.com updated the top 30 prospects for Each team. Pedro Leon is now Houston's #2 prospect
Correct. He does not go deep. He averaged 5.1 in 19? I believe.
Pena ETA at 2021... I like thatbearkatag15 said:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/astros/
MLB.com updated the top 30 prospects for Each team. Pedro Leon is now Houston's #2 prospect
bearkatag15 said:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/astros/
MLB.com updated the top 30 prospects for Each team. Pedro Leon is now Houston's #2 prospect
- A few random thoughts.
I didn't think Brown was that highly thought of.
Quote:
Right-hander Hunter Brown has gone from Division II Wayne State (Mich.) to one of the Astros' best pitching prospects in little more than a year. The 2019 fifth-rounder has a four-pitch arsenal and used his time in instructional league to continue to hone his curveball and changeup and to improve his control and command.
"Hunter has got some big-time stuff," Houston assistant GM in charge of player development Pete Putila said. "He's 96-98 mph with a huge curveball, a Tyler Glasnow-type curveball, an 86-88 mph slider and a changeup. He didn't throw the curveball until he got to us.
"It's really just a matter of refining his game, working on his locations and what-not. It's impressive watching him pitch. He gave our hitters fits."
https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-instructional-league-report
- Every single top 10 guy has an ETA of 21, 22, or 23.
- What are Nova & Pena's future if we sign Correa or another top-tier SS? It's not like Bregman or Altuve are going anywhere. Trade bait? Move the OF or 1B?
- Taylor Jones (#21) is 27. I know his story and he's a late starter, but he better show some major pop in AAA or his window may be closed soon.
- Deluxe is going to be pissed his boy is all the way down at 6.
Also - maybe he's a good candidate for an opener. We do have Ryne Stanek now,MaxPower said:The other thing to note is Odorizzi was terrible the third time through the order even in his 2019 breakout. The league's ops increased by .250 from the first / second time through the order compared to third. That makes sense as a pitcher with weak off speed pitches. I expect him to get a quick hook often in 2020.Farmer1906 said:
Crawfish Boxes dropped an article of Odorizzi. Basically a better version of what I posted.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/3/8/22317396/astros-assessing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-jake-odorizzis-game
This has to be the move I'd think. Or make him a super utility guy that rotates between the entire infield plus LF to give days off.Farmer1906 said:
- Trade bait? Move the OF or 1B?
Do I look like someone who's upset? Cuz I'm not upset! You're upset!Farmer1906 said:
Deluxe is going to be pissed his boy is all the way down at 6.
Deluxe said:Do I look like someone who's upset? Cuz I'm not upset! You're upset!Farmer1906 said:
Deluxe is going to be pissed his boy is all the way down at 6.
Optimistic, but won't hold my breath.
edit: So...
Straw
Altuve
Brantley
Bregman
Yordan
Correa
Tucker
Yuli
Maldonado
???
edit: So...
Straw
Altuve
Brantley
Bregman
Yordan
Correa
Tucker
Yuli
Maldonado
???
Do we really want Straw to have 17 to 95 more plate appearances than Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, TED, Brantley, & Correa because he's fast?
Maybe I'm just stupid, but it looks like, in either of those scenarios, we just shouldn't offer anyone a QO
redline248 said:
Maybe I'm just stupid, but it looks like, in either of those scenarios, we just shouldn't offer anyone a QO
We will 100% offer Correa. If he leaves we get extra compensation. It's just much better compensation if we're under.
Even if Correa is extended wouldn't it be smart to offer JV a QO?
We probably will offer him a QO. He and Grienke might be the two guys other than Correa who are worth giving one to. Maldanado values under what the QO is worth, but I hope we manage to keep him. Same with Lance, but I think he's gone.Ag_07 said:
Even if Correa is extended wouldn't it be smart to offer JV a QO?
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