I have no confidence at all. We've played like hammered dog poop in Oakland and offensively this team has been putrid all season. It's a 3 game series and I get anything can happen but I'll be surprised if we don't get swept.
****2020 Official Houston Astros We Don't Have To Cheat To Beat You Season Thread****
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Last: 4 yr ago by Beat40
The important thing is to recreate the aggregate.-Billy BeaneMathguy64 said:
Straw cannot be the option to replace George. He just can't. You would be giving up 40 HR a year, 80 plus RBI and I'm guessing 200 points of OPS. You cannot take that kind of production hit at CF. And to top it off he doesn't play CF that well. I know he made that diving catch in LCF but generally he gets bad jumps and has no arm at all. Replacing George with Straw full time would be a disaster.
That's a big ass hole you are digging out of. And it will cost a fortune to replace that production no matter who you replace it with.
Swap TED for Reddick. That's an upgrade. But you need to replace the production at CF and LF plus you now need a mid quality 4th outfielder for days off/injuries/etc.
The timing to lose Brantley and George together is bad.
Swap TED for Reddick. That's an upgrade. But you need to replace the production at CF and LF plus you now need a mid quality 4th outfielder for days off/injuries/etc.
The timing to lose Brantley and George together is bad.
He couldn't be an everyday player. He'd need to platoon. But he'd the perfect low-cost piece to get a lot out of. He's a giant dbag, but who wouldn't take a guy who could give us a .875 OPS half the time (RHP only).Keeper of The Spirits said:
Please no Joc! I will have to walk back so many mean spirited Astro glasses comments
I wouldn't mind Hernandez. He and Altuve are buddies. I wonder if that may sway him.
I was looking at lower cost options, but honestly, there isn't much in the upcoming OF FA market.
I was looking at lower cost options, but honestly, there isn't much in the upcoming OF FA market.
What it boils to do is they played around with George's service time and saved some money. Now they have to pay the bill for that. And the bill always comes due.
Four games up on Seattle with seven games to go. About to start a three game series at Seattle. If we win today and tomorrow, we clinch. If we just win 1/3, we'll go into the Rangers series with a magic number of two to clinch. Main thing is we just can't get swept.mwm said:
San Diego just beat Seattle. They scored 7 runs on 6 hits. Why can't we have nice things?
I don't think that's how our front office looks at it. If George wants backpay for our service time monkey business, he'll probably have to get it from another team.Mathguy64 said:
What it boils to do is they played around with George's service time and saved some money. Now they have to pay the bill for that. And the bill always comes due.
A couple weeks ago it looked like his market could be plummeting a bit. But he's played better recently and has his OPS back up in shouting distance of .900. That should be good enough to basically guarantee him a fifth year. Starting to think the bidding will start around 5/$120, which will be too rich for our blood.
But with all that said, I have no idea.
Our starting payroll this year was supposed to be over the threshold (pre-covid), as I recall. Next year the tax line is $210 million, and I think the returning actual salaries (not signing anyone or giving arbitration raises yet) is around $125 million. The luxury amount is less than that, I don't know enough to understand how that differs from the actual payroll spend. Regardless, I don't see Crane paying a luxury tax after this year's financial hit.
Not sure how Verlander plays into this... I assume his salary "counts" towards tax, insured or not, but does it offer some benefit to spending money elsewhere?
Not sure how Verlander plays into this... I assume his salary "counts" towards tax, insured or not, but does it offer some benefit to spending money elsewhere?
Deluxe said:I don't think that's how our front office looks at it. If George wants backpay for our service time monkey business, he'll probably have to get it from another team.Mathguy64 said:
What it boils to do is they played around with George's service time and saved some money. Now they have to pay the bill for that. And the bill always comes due.
A couple weeks ago it looked like his market could be plummeting a bit. But he's played better recently and has his OPS back up in shouting distance of .900. That should be good enough to basically guarantee him a fifth year. Starting to think the bidding will start around 5/$120, which will be too rich for our blood.
But with all that said, I have no idea.
This is how all teams will look at it. George got screwed by the system and by the Astros. Just because he wants to be paid for it, doesn't mean he will. George is one of my favorites, but he's super unlucky here. He lost money by being held down and then lost more during this market. He may not get anything near what he wants. Look at Keuchel. We may have a similar situation without the hold out and short term deal.
Pretty much this. I agree - no way we touch the 210 mark. And I don't know how JV's money hits. Can we somehow not count it towards luxury if he out for the year.Marvin said:
Our starting payroll this year was supposed to be over the threshold (pre-covid), as I recall. Next year the tax line is $210 million, and I think the returning actual salaries (not signing anyone or giving arbitration raises yet) is around $125 million. The luxury amount is less than that, I don't know enough to understand how that differs from the actual payroll spend. Regardless, I don't see Crane paying a luxury tax after this year's financial hit.
Not sure how Verlander plays into this... I assume his salary "counts" towards tax, insured or not, but does it offer some benefit to spending money elsewhere?
115 M but we have to add in raises to Correa, Diaz, Osuna (release?), McCullers, & Devo.
As far as spending, we'll need to add:
- 1-2 pieces to the bullpen (doesn't have to be big money)
- 1 vet starter (between Greinke, McCullers, Urquidy, Framber, Javier, we should have 5 big league starters), looking for a inning eater, not big money
- 1-2 OF pieces. Maybe we resign Springer or Brantley, maybe not. Here some value pieces to look at Joc, Marisnick, Pillar, Canha, Grossman, not all that exciting.
With the raises and some value picks the payroll can easily be around 145-175 range.
Talked to my Braves fan friend, he said he doesn't think the Braves will be in the market for a FA outfielder, except possibly on a 1 year deal.
Assuming Springer would take 5/120, what are the teams that could/would do that?
Assuming Springer would take 5/120, what are the teams that could/would do that?
The good news for Springer is that all it takes is one. IMO, the "we got next" teams like the Braves and Padres have dynamic offenses already and would be better off dumping their cap space into pitching. Small market up-and-coming teams like the Rays/A's probably don't have room for a big Springer deal in the budget.redline248 said:
Talked to my Braves fan friend, he said he doesn't think the Braves will be in the market for a FA outfielder, except possibly on a 1 year deal.
Assuming Springer would take 5/120, what are the teams that could/would do that?
Dumb money teams like the Angels (probably tapped out for now) and Mets (possibly waiting til the Lindor/Correa offseason) don't make much sense right now. Yankees/Dodgers are tapped out. Red Sox are trying to cut salary. Maybe one of the Cubs, White Sox, Giants or Rockies. I dunno. Like I posted on here a few weeks ago, I think the bid/ask spread is going to be very wide and he might price himself out of the market with crazy demands (like Keuchel) and be forced to take alot less than what he's hoping for.
Never underestimate the Angels' ability to spend dumb money.
Where there's a will there's a way
Where there's a will there's a way
They have 118 M locked up next year between 4 players (Pujols, Upton, Rendon, Trout).
I wonder how much Brantley's free agency is going to undercut George's.
during the COVID crunch...if a team needs a veteran outfielder...why sign one at 4 years $100 MM...when you could get one at 2 years $36 MM
during the COVID crunch...if a team needs a veteran outfielder...why sign one at 4 years $100 MM...when you could get one at 2 years $36 MM
Farmer1906 said:But that shouldn't be the bar. It has only happened a few times in the history of baseball.tjack16 said:
If Alvarez comes back healthy next year .... big IF. Then our window stays open
Like an above poster said. Bregman is MVP caliber and locked up through 2024, sign Correa, Altuve hopefully is back to form next year and then you have Tucker. That's a solid core 4-5 players to build around if Alvarez is healthy. Hopefully we some young OF like Pedro Leon and Taylor Jones improves at 1B
You also have Valdez, Urquidy, Javier and Bielak beyond 2021 as a young core rotation.
We might not be the 3 straight 100 win team like we just were ... but we should make the postseason each year until 2025 IMO
The Cardinal model is what we were expecting. Between 2000 and 2015 they won the division 10x. In the 6 years they did not, they were the wild card team 2x. They won 100 games or more just 3x during that 16-year stretch. They won 2 WS and made 2 others.
I'm hoping we are that successful. I'd even take the Red Sox approach in a heartbeat. Not as consistent, but it's resulted in 4 titles in 15 seasons.
I think this team will be talented enough to contend or the next 4-5 years. Not saying we will make the postseason every year from 2017-2025 and have a division streak like the dodgers are on ... Im just saying as it stands today we "should" at least make the wild card every year. Especially because I believe the expanded playoff will stick around
W said:
I wonder how much Brantley's free agency is going to undercut George's.
during the COVID crunch...if a team needs a veteran outfielder...why sign one at 4 years $100 MM...when you could get one at 2 years $36 MM
I think the DH market in the NL is going to be very high for Brantley
In these three games against the M's we have:
Game 1: LMJ
Game 2: Framber
Game 3: ZG
We really need a home LMJ start tonight. We cannot afford a bullpen day today, at all.
Also, I really hope we don't give days off for rest during this stretch, especially these first three games of the road trip. Need to be at as close to full strength as we can. I'd like to wrap this thing up in Seattle.
These boys need the pressure relieved of them before the Ranger series. Hopefully that would be a good series to get the some confidence in a low pressure environment before the postseason would start.
Game 1: LMJ
Game 2: Framber
Game 3: ZG
We really need a home LMJ start tonight. We cannot afford a bullpen day today, at all.
Also, I really hope we don't give days off for rest during this stretch, especially these first three games of the road trip. Need to be at as close to full strength as we can. I'd like to wrap this thing up in Seattle.
These boys need the pressure relieved of them before the Ranger series. Hopefully that would be a good series to get the some confidence in a low pressure environment before the postseason would start.
IMO 2021 Straw + Tucker > 2021 George + Reddick.
The guys on the left will only get better. Fan favorite as he may be, Reddick has been replacement level for 3 years already.
You've also gotta sign Mike or get a similar replacement as well as a decent 4th OF since I doubt we are going to see Yordan and his achy knees out there.
The guys on the left will only get better. Fan favorite as he may be, Reddick has been replacement level for 3 years already.
You've also gotta sign Mike or get a similar replacement as well as a decent 4th OF since I doubt we are going to see Yordan and his achy knees out there.
Straw is not stating OFer worthy.
He's not very good defensively and awful at the plate.
His only redeeming quality on a ML level is his speed.
He's not very good defensively and awful at the plate.
His only redeeming quality on a ML level is his speed.
Straw has had a bad 72 ABs. That's not enough to judge him by. Coming into this season (in also a small sample) he was putting up numbers that would add up to a 5-6 WAR over a full season. He has also started games at both middle infield and all outfield positions. I agree that he is not staring OFer worthy today and his long-term value is probably as a Marwin (non-2017 - normal Marwin) type utility guy, but he is likely to improve on both sides of the ball, some at least. I'd rather have him and his potential than Jake and his lower ceiling or even a now overpaid Marwin.Ag_07 said:
Straw is not stating OFer worthy.
He's not very good defensively and awful at the plate.
His only redeeming quality on a ML level is his speed.
Reddick on the other hand is no longer starting material offensively or defensively and he's not getting any better.
Not trying to make some major claim about Straw, but maybe he just needs more opportunities? Not everyone is just ready when they come up. We do need to realize what he is. A singles hitter with speed. He doesn't draw walks or hit for many extra-base hits. Maybe a year with 200+ ABs in the bigs will let him figure it out a little. As of now, he's got 189 over the last 3 years.Ag_07 said:
Straw is not stating OFer worthy.
He's not very good defensively and awful at the plate.
His only redeeming quality on a ML level is his speed.
We moved on from JD Davis after 165 ABs over 2 years with a .581 OPS. Over the last 2 years in NY he's 584 ABs with an OPS of .863.
MLB keeps on doing MLB things and Rob Manfred can't even hide his bias at this point.
Agree on Reddick
I just cringe at the idea of seeing Straw as the starter for a full 162.
I just cringe at the idea of seeing Straw as the starter for a full 162.
Yeah everyone gives me isht every time I bring up JD Davis or JD Martinez, but that's exactly right. Yeah maybe we got some lottery tickets and even some actual contributors by bailing out on Tyler White and Derek Fisher and AJ Reed etc. while they still had some value, but we also lost out on the JDs and Villar (Sigh Sneed!) and Grossman and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting.
Everyone says that these guys were blocked by others and not everyone can get regular ABs and that's definitely true. It's hard to fault the orgainzation for trading Villar when we had Altuve and Correa and Bregman and Marwin...but right now no one is blocking Straw, so the smart thing would be to give him a shot and hope that he can have Villar-like production at a cheap price and give him a shot to be at least your 4th OF/Util guy in 2021.
But yes, you still need to re-sign Mike and add Kevin Pillar or whoever.
Everyone says that these guys were blocked by others and not everyone can get regular ABs and that's definitely true. It's hard to fault the orgainzation for trading Villar when we had Altuve and Correa and Bregman and Marwin...but right now no one is blocking Straw, so the smart thing would be to give him a shot and hope that he can have Villar-like production at a cheap price and give him a shot to be at least your 4th OF/Util guy in 2021.
But yes, you still need to re-sign Mike and add Kevin Pillar or whoever.
Mathguy64 said:
MLB keeps on doing MLB things and Rob Manfred can't even hide his bias at this point.
I wonder how the appeal on that letter reveal is going
You're talking about the organization that could have perfect balls and strikes called on every pitch but instead decides to pay $350K to fatasses like Joe West so that they can entertain us with inconsistent strike zones and primadonna attitudes.n_touch said:To bad this was the one game this year that had no cameras, they could just look at the filmCFTXAG10 said:
I wasn't high on Davis and was fine with it at the time, but looking back with probably gave up too early there. I can admit when I am wrong.Harry Dunne said:
Yeah everyone gives me isht every time I bring up JD Davis or JD Martinez, but that's exactly right. Yeah maybe we got some lottery tickets and even some actual contributors by bailing out on Tyler White and Derek Fisher and AJ Reed etc. while they still had some value, but we also lost out on the JDs and Villar (Sigh Sneed!) and Grossman and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting.
Everyone says that these guys were blocked by others and not everyone can get regular ABs and that's definitely true. It's hard to fault the orgainzation for trading Villar when we had Altuve and Correa and Bregman and Marwin...but right now no one is blocking Straw, so the smart thing would be to give him a shot and hope that he can have Villar-like production at a cheap price and give him a shot to be at least your 4th OF/Util guy in 2021.
But yes, you still need to re-sign Mike and add Kevin Pillar or whoever.
Martinez is a different story. He had almost 1000 plate appearances over 3 years and got worse each year. He just happen to rework his swing and it worked unbelievably well.
Another note on Straw. He's got the potential to be a very good CFer. Look at the market for available CFers. An aging Jake is still very good. But outside of that... who would be an upgrade and make sense financially? Pillar is fine. Jackie Bradley could be the guy, but he's in the middle of a terrible year.
I'm with you on Straw. I think having mashers up and down the lineup from 2017-19 spoiled us. If our top 6 hitters are Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Correa and Yuli next year, that's plenty to sustain a high caliber offense. Then slotting in a vet corner OF, Maldy and Straw 7-9 is just fine. Straw has a career .340 OBP. If he can turn the lineup over at that rate and be a nuisance for pitchers on the base paths, I'm cool with that in the 9 hole. Use our disposable cash for Correa or pitching.Farmer1906 said:
Another note on Straw. He's got the potential to be a very good CFer. Look at the market for available CFers. An aging Jake is still very good. But outside of that... who would be an upgrade and make sense financially? Pillar is fine. Jackie Bradley could be the guy, but he's in the middle of a terrible year.
I've been saying it for a while - it would be a luxury on most teams to have a player like Straw batting 9th.
Random thought on Yuli...
What is Toronto's 1B situation? Would Yuli want to go play with his brother?
What is Toronto's 1B situation? Would Yuli want to go play with his brother?