Yoenis's 5 years leading up to his FA.
707 games
.272 AVG
.325 OBP
.494 SLG
.819 OPS
124 OPS+

Geroge's last 5 years.
592 games (we're not finished with 2020 and its a shortened year)
.271 AVG
.361 OBP
.492 SLG
.853 OPS
130 OPS+

Injuries and an opt-out have basically made Cespedes's deal look terrible.

We offer him the same deal as Yoenis and I don't think he can say no.

Do you think he gets +/- the Cespedes 4/$110mm deal?

I kinda think he'll want the fifth year and more aggregate money, even if it's less AAV than he'd get on a four year deal.

Deluxe said:

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Do you think he gets +/- the Cespedes 4/$110mm deal?

I kinda think he'll want the fifth year and more aggregate money, even if it's less AAV than he'd get on a four year deal.

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Maybe. The 27.5 evaluation is pretty steep for that old of a player.

Drop it to 24 and do it over 5 years (120 M). I am going to be shocked if its that more, but then again people spend dumb money all the time.

Here are the top active contracts for all 31 years olds.


I would disregard the pitchers. George is not Albert and not even Cano (142 OPS+ the 5 years prior). That was still some carryover from the steroid stay great at 35 era.

That leaves the Choo & Goldschimdt deals. Choo was longer and lower $. We haven't seen many deals like that. Maybe that's what it takes, but sub 20 per year seems low for George. Paul has been better than George. He does play CF(or RF), but he'll probably age better.

Short of George resetting the market for old player deals, I think it'll be close to what I mentioned before.

Good analysis. I kinda think the bid/ask on his deal is going to be pretty wide.

George can rightfully say he's performed at MVP caliber level for stretches of his career and has proven to be an elite postseason performer (.924 career playoff OPS). He can also play centerfield (at least for now).

The market can rightfully point to his injury history, inconsistency and the perceived reputational stains from the scandal.

There aren't too many difference-maker free agents this winter, but I also don't think many of the teams you'd expect to hand out a huge contract (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc) will be in position to do so.

Giving George a 5 year deal at huge AAV does kinda seem like something the Mets would do. Could also see a team like the Blue Jays or Padres who could use a veteran hand as they gear up to make their 3-5 year runs. But I also think those teams would probably be better off spending their unallocated money on pitching.

Regardless, I can kinda see a situation where Springer scoffs at an initial Astro low ball offer, tests the market, only to sheepishly come back and take it when his contract demands are too high and his market pursues other options.

But to your point, teams do spend stupid money all the time and I think someone out there will give him a fifth year. A 5/$110-120 will probably be within his grasp.

If he finishes this year red hot though, I could see his market really taking off. Cole is obviously a different situation but his hot finish/playoffs bumped him from "maybe" getting 7/$240 to 9/$324.

all it takes is for one GM to be infatuated. And it may depend on how far back they look. George had an awesome 2019 with the .974 OPS.

but just the year before in 2018, he posted a .780 OPS (in 140 games). And now 2020 looks like it's going to be a disappointment.

so 2 of the last 3 years don't scream $25 MM player. But that's why you have an agent...to convince teams why they will be getting the 2019 George for the next 5 years

Deluxe said:

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There aren't too many difference-maker free agents this winter, but I also don't think many of the teams you'd expect to hand out a huge contract (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc) will be in position to do so.

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this is another downer for George. Those big spenders won't be spending this offseason. Neither will the Phillies.

his best chances appear to be with the Rangers, Cardinals, and possibly the Braves. Maybe the Padres or Cubs if he's willing to take a 4-year deal. I think the Mets will hold out for Lindor next year

Rangers have come out and said their budget will be decreasing, they're selling this offseason, and essentially tanking.

Think that takes them out of the running.

ATL may make some sense. They have 22 M coming off the books in their OF with Ozuna & Markakis hitting the market. They have Acuna under control for a while. The next big issue they face is Freddie hitting the market in 2022, but they'll have room even with George.

Hold out for London & Correa.

Yea, I think the Rangers should probably just go ahead and start their tear down. It wouldn't be smart to weigh down their payroll with an asset that will likely decline on the back half of his deal. Then again, they do not smart things all the time...

Agreed on the Mets waiting for Lindor (or even Correa). Braves are definitely an interesting possibility. Cardinals have more cap room than I thought too, but giving Springer a big 5 year deal doesn't really seem like their MO, especially after giving one to Goldy last year.

I always wonder if George's price will go down given the sign stealing stuff. 1. Because his numbers have dropped since it all broke, and 2. If Astros hitters have a black cloud over them PR wise that they don't want to deal with

Farmer1906 said:

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This is going to be a big influx of help very very soon.

Could you imagine adding an All Star third baseman, 3/4 type starting pitcher, a trusted middle reliever, and another experienced reliever at the deadline. We'd all be going ape *****

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I'm most excited about Bregman and Peacock coming back. Really nice to have an effective, trusted vet coming out of your bullpen.

Super Jack at short

How this guy is still a Ranger is a testament to what an abject failure that franchise is right now.

This looks promising

Timely hitting from the top of the order! 3 straight singles on 3 pitches.

Lance Lynn looks like he would star in a beer softball league.

I don't like Altuve's slide.

Diaz!

ALEDMYS!

Welcome back Diaz!

DIAZ!

bearkatag15 said:

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He think we still know what's coming today???

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Well, guess we're just feeding into his conspiracy now...

Jimmy Jack. Tater. Round-tripper. Touch 'em all.

Props to Tucker for hitting the fly ball and staying out of the double play!

We'd be happy to knock him out in the first, right?

Hells yeah!