Looking very forward to having McCullers back. Greinke and Verlander should be two of the top starters in the league yet again. Can't wait. MAN, it's gonna be a long off-season.

The older I get the more I think I watch MLB and the less I watch NFL. Not sure why that is.

In addition to the three-batter minimum for pitchers, don't forget that roster size increases from 25 to 26.

Marvin said:

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In addition to the three-batter minimum for pitchers, don't forget that roster size increases from 25 to 26.

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Does the 3 batter minimum rule diminish Joe Smith's role? He really can only be used when there are 3 righties in a row in the lineup.

I respect your thoughts, completely disagree but respectfully.

Which of those 5 would you bump and where would you put them instead? I mean 1-4 are almost guarantees to be in the rotation and Whitley is just a matter or when he breaks and and gets a shot to show himself. If we trade for someone theyre obviously getting a shot also....who in that should be bumped for two guys who have proven so far they cant hack it as a starter?

bearkatag15 said:

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Marvin said:

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In addition to the three-batter minimum for pitchers, don't forget that roster size increases from 25 to 26.

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Does the 3 batter minimum rule diminish Joe Smith's role? He really can only be used when there are 3 righties in a row in the lineup.

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I think it makes specialists a little less valuable on the open market. But overall I think the new rule hurts our competition like the Rays and Yankees more than it hurts us.

Makes guys like Osuna & Harris move valuable. They have the ability to get both out at a high clip.

cpsencik04 said:

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I respect your thoughts, completely disagree but respectfully.

Which of those 5 would you bump and where would you put them instead? I mean 1-4 are almost guarantees to be in the rotation and Whitley is just a matter or when he breaks and and gets a shot to show himself. If we trade for someone theyre obviously getting a shot also....who in that should be bumped for two guys who have proven so far they cant hack it as a starter?

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Not sure how closely you followed Whitley this past season but he is not a guarantee to pitch at the major-league level at all much less open the season the starting rotation.

McCullers I believe has started 22 games every year. We can hope for more but there is absolutely no way you're counting on the guy to start 32 games next year.

Urquidy I am more hopeful about but still a big ?

Opening the year with peacock as the #5 is suboptimal but at least the guy has shown you he's a capable major league starter and if he can stay healthy can hold down the fort as your 5.

But you really need to bring in at least one guy like Miley. I think a lot of people don't realize that even though Miley hadn't been a star he has been very durable. In fact one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game over the last seven or eight years.

Can the trading of Reddick bring you that #4/5 that needs a tuneup rather than one of the free agents?

Farmer1906 said:

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Wheeler is a guy I can get on board with. He's not going to demand as many years as MadBum yet he's got some talent we could mold.

Edit: here is my trade deadline post of Wheeler.

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A few thoughts on how to quickly improve Wheeler.

Throw the curve more. It's his best pitcher statically and he only throws it 10-11% of the time.

Throw the sinker less. He's thrown it more this year than ever before and it's not a great pitch based on how it's hit.

Locate the four seamer up in the zone. It seems like Storm immediately gets his guys to throw the high heater. Based on the map he leaves it over the heart of the plate too often.

Based on velocity & movement baseball savant compares him to 18 & 19 Gerrit Cole & 18 DeGrom. If that doesn't wow you then idk what will.

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Edit2:

Spotrac's market value: 4 yrs, $93,778,568

No way we touch that.

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While I agree on the price tag being outside our range, I could see us getting way more value than $24MM annual value out of him with small tweaks. Obviously we got Cole way cheaper prior to his FA and was getting a market value $35MM+ out of him for a huge return.

Here is 2017 Cole vs 2019 Wheeler vs 2019 Cole pitch selection, velocity and movement. Like you said, just ditch the sinker, increase 4 seam and curve usage and get more horizontal movement on the slider. Cole was able to take his slider from a 2.6" horizontal break to a 4.9" horizontal break during his 2-year stint with Strom.



images from baseball savant pitch arsenal
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gerrit-cole-543037?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb

You never know who in the organization is really responsible for doing what. Luhnow gets all the credit and is obviously very good but there are usually several guys behind the guy and I hope Taubman wasn't the guy behind all of the incredible starting pitcher reclamation jobs.

I guess we will see.

Harry Dunne said:

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cpsencik04 said:

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I respect your thoughts, completely disagree but respectfully.

Which of those 5 would you bump and where would you put them instead? I mean 1-4 are almost guarantees to be in the rotation and Whitley is just a matter or when he breaks and and gets a shot to show himself. If we trade for someone theyre obviously getting a shot also....who in that should be bumped for two guys who have proven so far they cant hack it as a starter?

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Not sure how closely you followed Whitley this past season but he is not a guarantee to pitch at the major-league level at all much less open the season the starting rotation.

McCullers I believe has started 22 games every year. We can hope for more but there is absolutely no way you're counting on the guy to start 32 games next year.

Urquidy I am more hopeful about but still a big ?

Opening the year with peacock as the #5 is suboptimal but at least the guy has shown you he's a capable major league starter and if he can stay healthy can hold down the fort as your 5.

But you really need to bring in at least one guy like Miley. I think a lot of people don't realize that even though Miley hadn't been a star he has been very durable. In fact one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game over the last seven or eight years.

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Fully aware of that...but what I am saying is at SOME POINT he is going to get a chance to get innings and see if it works out. We tried so many young arms this year that if he had being doing naything worth while he would have gotten a chance also but he flopped this year. This spring training I expect every effort from the organization to do it again. With all that being said that is why we would be looking for a FA signing, but you arent bumping JU or LMJ to the pen for peacock and James...Id love to resign miley for a smaller amount and manage his innings much more strictly

I hear you, but JV and ZG are you only two that are guarantees to be in the rotation. The 1-4 on your list being "almost guarantees" is the only part I really disagree with.

Urquidy was only a #10-20 organizational prospect as of this summer and his long-term outlook was that he could be a nice back end of the rotation starter. A good late season run and one great start doesn't change that.

Every single other person mentioned could be left out because of performance and/or health concerns. I just think the situation is a lot more tenuous than what you're describing and bringing in a guy that ought to to be good for 30 starts is a must.

Farmer1906 said:

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Just to remind everyone what we have in LMJ.

From 2015-2019; minimum 450 IP.

ERA: 3.69 (30th)
FIP: 3.26 (10th - ahead of JV & Greinke)
xFIP: 3.33 (11th)
K%: 26.5% (26th)

BB%: 9.4 % (14th worst)
IP: 451.1 (dead last for obvious reasons)

When LMJ is healthy he's good. He just hasn't ever been able to have a full year of health. I think if the team manages his innings, we'll have a legit #2/3 type for October.

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His problem is his inability to eat up innings and his inconsistency. When he's good, he's good.

Philip J Fry said:

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cpsencik04 said:

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I still think our rotation next year is:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Zack Greinke
3. Lance McCullers
4. Jose Urquidy
5. Forest Whitley


after the ASB we come out with:

JV
ZG
FW
LM
JU

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I'd like James or Peacock to have another crack as a SP

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Big ol hell no on James.

That will certainly offer some perspective and behind-the-scenes reality. Best wishes to the McHughs wherever they ends up.

Thinice said:

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After looking at the list of free agents, good luck to any teams trying to get a lot better through free agency.

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I noticed that too. It's not an impressive list of ballplayers

Maybe the Astros don't think McHugh is worth $6M per year he was paid the last couple years

one thing that will help Yuli age well...the Crawford Boxes.

he had a .966 OPS at MMP

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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Sounds like we told him to peace out, which is frustrating to me.

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We haven't told that to anyone. Cole put it best, they're no longer employed by the Astros.

This is McHughs first chance he's had in his career to actually choose where he goes and get paid what the market demands. If we make the best offer then he'll likely be back. If we don't have the money to keep him or don't believe he's worth it, then we won't.

I thought he was attached to Verlander at the hip

TAKE IT BACK 2020!

Harry Dunne said:

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I hear you, but JV and ZG are you only two that are guarantees to be in the rotation. The 1-4 on your list being "almost guarantees" is the only part I really disagree with.

Urquidy was only a #10-20 organizational prospect as of this summer and his long-term outlook was that he could be a nice back end of the rotation starter. A good late season run and one great start doesn't change that.

Every single other person mentioned could be left out because of performance and/or health concerns. I just think the situation is a lot more tenuous than what you're describing and bringing in a guy that ought to to be good for 30 starts is a must.

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I'm saying they're a sure thing to be in the rotation...not to be great or not struggle. And my point that I was disagreeing with the other poster is that we are past giving James or Peacock a shot. Especially peacock.

Thinking about who is in the minors to pitch...Francis Martes will be coming back from TJS and he pitched decent in 2017 during some spot starts, so he has potential. Cionel Perez is a AAA starter, so maybe they'll play with stretching him out in spring training. Don't forget about Armenteros, who pitched pretty well on occasion this year. Framber can't be trusted to throw strikes, but if you could fix that somehow, then he may be an option.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them use Peacock as a starter again. Before he had his nerve issues he was pretty solid.

Whitley has maturity issues that were well documented and he hasn't been able to deliver at a AAA level yet, so I can't see the astros using him before midseason. They tend to wait until the super two date passes anyway to give guys their first call up (see Alvarez and Tucker). At best he may be a long relief addition at the end if the year or, if he still isn't producing come July, they might cut the cord and trade him for whatever the team needs.

Keep in mind last year that there were projections for big deals for free agents about this time, and lots of guys took lower valued contracts with fewer years. Lots of the free agent arms will likely get tagged with qualifying offers, so we will see the same hesitancy to sign guys because it means giving up draft picks that are more highly valued than ever.

It will be interesting to see what the astros do given the financial limits that they have. Watch the rule five draft pickups closely and the waiver wires. We haven't heard of urquidy at all this time last year, and he came through big and is someone they're counting on to be a starter this year. I would bet they go after a low cost LH starter and a long reliever as insurance. Given the age of Grienke and Verlander, you can't count on them being injury free all year. Trade Reddick, Devo, Biagini, and a prospect for some pitching and clear some salary in the process to be able to sign some relievers.

Jumping in with my "hot take" at 2:30 in the morning. With Luhnows track record I think he signs/trades for a SP that we're not taking about yet. Don't ask me who because I'm too lazy dig into that. I think this is a crucial offseason, mainly because the rest of the AL west (LAA especially) will be doing all the can to build a roster that can contend with us and knock us off the podium. This is where Cole to the Angels makes me a little nervous.

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Spotrac's market value: 4 yrs, $93,778,568

No way we touch that.

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disagree with this completely.

Astros would find a way to make $23mm work for Wheeler if thats the number.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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Spotrac's market value: 4 yrs, $93,778,568

No way we touch that.

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disagree with this completely.

Astros would find a way to make $23mm work for Wheeler if thats the number.

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Do you think they pay the luxury tax? How do you think we clear 23 M per year to stay under?