*****Official 2019/2020 Houston Astros offseason thread*****

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The Beef01
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12:11p, 1/28/20
AG
IF it's going to be Baker, then I think that's far from the negative so many people want to make it out to be.

A.) It's likely a patch and both parties are entering the agreement with that mutual understanding

B.) Given the talent on this team combined with the adversity they're likely to face on the road; they need a clubhouse manager and that's certainly Dusty Baker.

Honestly, I wasn't a fan of Hinch b/c within the scope of an entire season....his game 7 decision making was about what we'd come to see; most people just don't put a game against the Twins in June under the same microscope. However, Hinch was a wizard in the clubhouse and he would've been the perfect manager for this team....Dusty Baker wasn't at the top of my list, but he has traditionally been considered a clubhouse wizard too and that's exactly what these guys need.
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W
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In reply to iBrad • 12:33p, 1/28/20
AG
well said.

I'm okay with Dusty. He got the Reds to the playoffs 3 times. Their only 3 playoff appearances of this century
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Farmer1906
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In reply to shano0603 • 12:42p, 1/28/20
AG
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.
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Mathguy64
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12:49p, 1/28/20
AG
Well, I guess it could have been worse. It could have been Showalter.

What a polar opposite from Hinch and an analytic driven system.
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JDUB08AG
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12:50p, 1/28/20
AG
What a story that would be though. Guides a team during controversy and wins his first ever WS title in what was the only thing missing in an otherwise illustrious career.
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shano0603
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:04p, 1/28/20
AG
Farmer1906 said:
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.

And Hinch's pitching decisions in one game cost use the series.
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the last of the bohemians
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1:10p, 1/28/20
Positive- Baker would have left Greinke in.
Negative- Baker will probably end Verlander's career prematurely.
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The Beef01
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:12p, 1/28/20
AG
Farmer1906 said:
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.
The straight analytics approach also catches you losses that the traditional approach doesn't and that happened a lot with Hinch.

Analytics tells you pitcher X out of the bullpen is the optimal match-up and you do it...

...traditional approach tells you that pitcher X should be good in this situation, but he has given up runs in 3 straight appearances and is struggling with his command. Let's find an alternative solution in this spot.

The shift is great, but you're starting to see more hitters slap against the shift and given the skill of the top level hitters in the game and the follow-the-leader trends, that's going to end-up spelling the end of the shift as that quickly becomes free baserunners (and in some extreme cases, free runners in scoring position due to outfield alignment and how far a corner outfielder might have to run to chase down a ball hit against the shift).

I think the truth lies somewhere between the traditional approach and heavy analytics...I think Hinch was great as an analytics-driven manager, but his feel for the game was just atrocious (b/c, honestly, there was no component of what he was being asked to do that relied on "gut feel"). What the Astros need is someone who can look at the analytics, but then can also recall that despite this guy being the obvious choice to PH based on the numbers, he hasn't put together a solid AB in a week and probably doesn't benefit from being put into a clutch situation where he is likely doomed to fail. This type of manager isn't going to come from the pool of data guys....it's going to come from the group who have managed in the traditional sense and have grasped the benefits of the numbers.

My greatest hope is that the analytics that built this club have been central to discussions with the managerial candidates for Crane and that whomever he is going to hire understands the importance of interpreting the data.



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the last of the bohemians
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1:14p, 1/28/20
Great post Beef
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The Beef01
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In reply to the last of the bohemians • 1:16p, 1/28/20
AG
the last of the bohemians said:
Great post Beef
Thanks!

I get too damn emotional during the season and start spitting hot fire, so I'll take the compliments on more level-headed stuff now!
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YNWA_AG
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 1:27p, 1/28/20
AG
Biggio was terrible at st Thomas
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BoxingAg84
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1:28p, 1/28/20
Let's just call it what it is. Baker is a stop-gap hire at best.
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mazag08
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1:29p, 1/28/20
AG
Not excited about Baker. He's pretty much the anti Hinch and will frustrate the same amount, just in different ways.
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Nuke LaLoosh
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In reply to The Beef01 • 1:37p, 1/28/20
AG
The Beef01 said:
Farmer1906 said:
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.
The straight analytics approach also catches you losses that the traditional approach doesn't and that happened a lot with Hinch.

Analytics tells you pitcher X out of the bullpen is the optimal match-up and you do it...

...traditional approach tells you that pitcher X should be good in this situation, but he has given up runs in 3 straight appearances and is struggling with his command. Let's find an alternative solution in this spot.

The shift is great, but you're starting to see more hitters slap against the shift and given the skill of the top level hitters in the game and the follow-the-leader trends, that's going to end-up spelling the end of the shift as that quickly becomes free baserunners (and in some extreme cases, free runners in scoring position due to outfield alignment and how far a corner outfielder might have to run to chase down a ball hit against the shift).

I think the truth lies somewhere between the traditional approach and heavy analytics...I think Hinch was great as an analytics-driven manager, but his feel for the game was just atrocious (b/c, honestly, there was no component of what he was being asked to do that relied on "gut feel"). What the Astros need is someone who can look at the analytics, but then can also recall that despite this guy being the obvious choice to PH based on the numbers, he hasn't put together a solid AB in a week and probably doesn't benefit from being put into a clutch situation where he is likely doomed to fail. This type of manager isn't going to come from the pool of data guys....it's going to come from the group who have managed in the traditional sense and have grasped the benefits of the numbers.

My greatest hope is that the analytics that built this club have been central to discussions with the managerial candidates for Crane and that whomever he is going to hire understands the importance of interpreting the data.



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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 1:41p, 1/28/20
YNWA_AG said:
Biggio was terrible at st Thomas
But he was my Astro Buddy!
7nine
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Beat40
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In reply to The Beef01 • 1:45p, 1/28/20
The Beef01 said:
Farmer1906 said:
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.
The straight analytics approach also catches you losses that the traditional approach doesn't and that happened a lot with Hinch.

Analytics tells you pitcher X out of the bullpen is the optimal match-up and you do it...

...traditional approach tells you that pitcher X should be good in this situation, but he has given up runs in 3 straight appearances and is struggling with his command. Let's find an alternative solution in this spot.

The shift is great, but you're starting to see more hitters slap against the shift and given the skill of the top level hitters in the game and the follow-the-leader trends, that's going to end-up spelling the end of the shift as that quickly becomes free baserunners (and in some extreme cases, free runners in scoring position due to outfield alignment and how far a corner outfielder might have to run to chase down a ball hit against the shift).

I think the truth lies somewhere between the traditional approach and heavy analytics...I think Hinch was great as an analytics-driven manager, but his feel for the game was just atrocious (b/c, honestly, there was no component of what he was being asked to do that relied on "gut feel"). What the Astros need is someone who can look at the analytics, but then can also recall that despite this guy being the obvious choice to PH based on the numbers, he hasn't put together a solid AB in a week and probably doesn't benefit from being put into a clutch situation where he is likely doomed to fail. This type of manager isn't going to come from the pool of data guys....it's going to come from the group who have managed in the traditional sense and have grasped the benefits of the numbers.

My greatest hope is that the analytics that built this club have been central to discussions with the managerial candidates for Crane and that whomever he is going to hire understands the importance of interpreting the data.





Hinch literally said he was going off gut feeling for the 2017 postseason bullpen. Do you not believe him?

I also believe he rode Harris as the hot hand in game 7 because of how stout and reliable he'd been. We can all agree taking ZG out was not the right call, but AJ absolutely rode his gut there.

Also, he rode Springer as the leadoff when EVERYONE was saying he should change. I'm sure that was a gut feel too.

Let's also get this out there: this team just came off 3 100 win seasons in a row. Analytics absolutely played a major role in that.

AJ was a wizard at player ego management in the clubhouse. Don't discount that.

Basically, I think AJ is almost exactly what you are saying he isn't. I think he's gone with the gut and it's paid off and gone with the gut and it hasn't. Just because you disagree with his decisions doesn't mean he made that decision based on analytics alone.

Every single manager out managers themselves in the postseason at some point or another. Every single one.
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Beat40
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In reply to The Beef01 • 1:51p, 1/28/20
My last point in your regards to the shift:

That's the whole point of analytics. The shift is based on a trend.

Are you telling me that when Reddick was slapping the ball the other way to start the season, a better manager would have recognized that and adjusted his defense accordingly? Guess what, Reddick went back to doing what the data said he would do.

If players are really changing their approach, the data will bear that out and the team will adjust.

The shift is not something I would judge a manager on.

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suburban cowboy
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1:52p, 1/28/20
AG
We had a good run boys.

Hiring Baker puts an exclamation on what feels like the beginning of the end of greatness.
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astros4545
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In reply to Beat40 • 1:57p, 1/28/20
The Beef01
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In reply to Beat40 • 2:06p, 1/28/20
AG
Beat40 said:
The Beef01 said:
Farmer1906 said:
shano0603 said:
Holy cow. You'd think our entire team was just Blacksoxed by reading this thread. With a team of this talent, the manager doesn't a make a huge difference.

I'm not a big fan of this hire, but who else were we supposed to go get?
Sure it does. It doesn't take long to lose your edge (shifting, pitching matchups, optimal lineups, etc) to go from 100 wins to 95 wins. In the last 2 years that would have been the difference between winning the division and being a wild card. Keep in mind this is our wide-open window. In 3 years we'll be a completely different team outside of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, and a handful of others.
The straight analytics approach also catches you losses that the traditional approach doesn't and that happened a lot with Hinch.

Analytics tells you pitcher X out of the bullpen is the optimal match-up and you do it...

...traditional approach tells you that pitcher X should be good in this situation, but he has given up runs in 3 straight appearances and is struggling with his command. Let's find an alternative solution in this spot.

The shift is great, but you're starting to see more hitters slap against the shift and given the skill of the top level hitters in the game and the follow-the-leader trends, that's going to end-up spelling the end of the shift as that quickly becomes free baserunners (and in some extreme cases, free runners in scoring position due to outfield alignment and how far a corner outfielder might have to run to chase down a ball hit against the shift).

I think the truth lies somewhere between the traditional approach and heavy analytics...I think Hinch was great as an analytics-driven manager, but his feel for the game was just atrocious (b/c, honestly, there was no component of what he was being asked to do that relied on "gut feel"). What the Astros need is someone who can look at the analytics, but then can also recall that despite this guy being the obvious choice to PH based on the numbers, he hasn't put together a solid AB in a week and probably doesn't benefit from being put into a clutch situation where he is likely doomed to fail. This type of manager isn't going to come from the pool of data guys....it's going to come from the group who have managed in the traditional sense and have grasped the benefits of the numbers.

My greatest hope is that the analytics that built this club have been central to discussions with the managerial candidates for Crane and that whomever he is going to hire understands the importance of interpreting the data.





Hinch literally said he was going off gut feeling for the 2017 postseason bullpen. Do you not believe him?

I also believe he rode Harris as the hot hand in game 7 because of how stout and reliable he'd been. We can all agree taking ZG out was not the right call, but AJ absolutely rode his gut there.

Also, he rode Springer as the leadoff when EVERYONE was saying he should change. I'm sure that was a gut feel too.

Let's also get this out there: this team just came off 3 100 win seasons in a row. Analytics absolutely played a major role in that.

AJ was a wizard at player ego management in the clubhouse. Don't discount that.

Basically, I think AJ is almost exactly what you are saying he isn't. I think he's gone with the gut and it's paid off and gone with the gut and it hasn't. Just because you disagree with his decisions doesn't mean he made that decision based on analytics alone.

Every single manager out managers themselves in the postseason at some point or another. Every single one.
We'll have to agree-to-disagree on this....AJ never had the freedom to go off of his gut.

When you have a guy who gets hired out of a front office role to manage who made it just over a year as a manager in his last role; it's a safe bet that he is being put there b/c he'll reliably push the buttons he is told to push and manage the clubhouse personalities.
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The Beef01
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In reply to suburban cowboy • 2:10p, 1/28/20
AG
suburban cowboy said:
We had a good run boys.

Hiring Baker puts an exclamation on what feels like the beginning of the end of greatness.
He is in the top 30 all time for winning percentage as a manager (pretty much surrounded by Hall of Famers) and is 15th all time in total wins...I have no idea where you guys are getting these hot takes on Dusty Baker.
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Wabs
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2:17p, 1/28/20
AG
Dusty Baker???

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YNWA_AG
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In reply to The Beef01 • 2:23p, 1/28/20
AG
No matter who we hired people were going to freak out.
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Deluxe
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2:49p, 1/28/20
AG
It doesn't have to be either extreme re: Hinch. He definitely wasn't Dave Roberts sitting there with a huge Socratic chart telling him every move to make based on pre-game analysis, but he wasn't Ned Yost shooting from the hip either.

For the most part over the 162, I agree that he was following direction of the baseball ops department for many/most decisions. But also I've read Hinch was especially known for was his ability to act as a translator/filter between the baseball ops analysis and the players.

I think his in-game decision making was hit or miss. He pressed the right button many times 2017. Like, I guarantee the baseball ops plan in game 3 of the 2017 World Series wasn't "get the ball to Peacock in the 6th and ride him to victory". But at the same time, he'll always have the blemish of pulling Greinke in 2019 game 7. And rightfully so.

I do think there's a chance that a better "feel" manager could help us tap into a couple extra wins via some consistently better in-game decisions, but perhaps that will come at the expense of a few more losses via a less streamlined baseball ops --> players structure.
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Frok
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 3:16p, 1/28/20
AG
YNWA_AG said:
No matter who we hired people were going to freak out.


Guilty. It pains me to think of anyone other than the current regime. And I was often critical of Hinch.

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Teddy Perkins
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3:30p, 1/28/20
AG
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tjack16
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3:38p, 1/28/20
AG
It's funny to see how many on this thread were so critical of Hinch and gave him so much hate... yet now he's gone all of a sudden any replacement sucks, and we are doomed because of how great he was.
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suburban cowboy
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In reply to tjack16 • 4:02p, 1/28/20
AG
tjholley16 said:
It's funny to see how many on this thread were so critical of Hinch and gave him so much hate... yet now he's gone all of a sudden any replacement sucks, and we are doomed because of how great he was.


Critiquing someone doesn't equate to wanting AJ gone. I don't recall any legitimate posters saying they want AJ fired.

Dusty Baker is a stop-gap retread. Granted, he's actually great for that role and is better than Brad Ausmus would have been. That said, Astroball left when Lunhow and AJ got fired and that just a tough pill to swallow.


That's just the way it is.
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iamtheglove
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In reply to suburban cowboy • 4:06p, 1/28/20
suburban cowboy said:
We had a good run boys.

Hiring Baker puts an exclamation on what feels like the beginning of the end of greatness.


This feels a lot like when Jerry Jones hired Berry Switzer
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tjack16
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In reply to suburban cowboy • 4:07p, 1/28/20
AG
suburban cowboy said:
tjholley16 said:
It's funny to see how many on this thread were so critical of Hinch and gave him so much hate... yet now he's gone all of a sudden any replacement sucks, and we are doomed because of how great he was.


Critiquing someone doesn't equate to wanting AJ gone. I don't recall any legitimate posters saying they want AJ fired.

Dusty Baker is a stop-gap retread. Granted, he's actually great for that role and is better than Brad Ausmus would have been. That said, Astroball left when Lunhow and AJ got fired and that just a tough pill to swallow.


That's just the way it is.
you must not have read this thread during the playoffs... there were a few posters who legit said Hinch sucked. We even have the term "Hinched" ... and many on here blamed him for the World Series loss by taking Greinke out.

There were a few anti-Hinch people on here dating back to 2018
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TMACsDaMan
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4:14p, 1/28/20
Baker isn't the model for playoff success

One pennant in 02. NLCS in 03 (Bartman). And 7 one and dones.
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Deluxe
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In reply to tjack16 • 4:17p, 1/28/20
AG
tjholley16 said:

you must not have read this thread during the playoffs... there were a few posters who legit said Hinch sucked. We even have the term "Hinched" ... and many on here blamed him for the World Series loss by taking Greinke out.

There were a few anti-Hinch people on here dating back to 2018
There's like 100(?) posters on this thread. It makes sense that there would be a wide range of opinions about Hinch. It makes sense that those who didn't care for Hinch would be very critical at times during his tenure (esp after WS G7). It makes sense that those who liked Hinch would think whoever we hire is going to be downgrade.
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BMX Bandit
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4:27p, 1/28/20
No matter what Baker does with Astros, it won't be the worst move a Houston franchise did today.

OBrien as GM of Texans wins that hands down
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 4:38p, 1/28/20
AG
BMX Bandit said:
No matter what Baker does with Astros, it won't be the worst move a Houston franchise did today.

OBrien as GM of Texans wins that hands down
Well yeah, but the Texans have always been a **** run org. Astros were one of, if not the, best in baseball.
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Basketball and Chain
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4:44p, 1/28/20
AG
Weird for an analytics organization to hire a manager carrying the "old school" tag. Guess that's what you get when a non-baseball guy is calling the shots. We just need someone to come in and keep the status quo. Baker seems like a big personality that doesn't really fit with what we have going on. I guess we'll see....
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