I'm hoping they get traded. At best, we're looking at a WC this year, but to do so we'd need to make a move to bolster the rotation. That's going to thin out the farm system during a rebuild, and at best we'd be doing so for a shot at a WC berth. I don't see this team, even with an addition to the rotation, doing anything beyond that. The question they have to ask, IMO, is whether this team + one new starter, can go toe-to-toe against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Astros in a 5 or 7 game series. I don't think that's feasible enough to warrant making a move, especially if it sets back the rebuild. I only make a move if the move can make us legitimate championship contenders.

It is frustrating to see our lack of pitching development over the years, especially when you see guys like Martin Perez go elsewhere and thrive. I do know we have some very good prospects at the lower levels, but that's a few years away.

I agree on all counts, I'm just skeptical that we'll ever see these pitchers produce. In my opinion we'll need at least two of them to pan out as legitimate MLB starters, and I can't think of anybody besides Derek Holland that Jon Daniels has produced in house.

Its sad, but I think Holland was the only significant starter internally developed under JD. I was going to add CJ Wilson, but he was drafted in 2001. Perez always had the potential, but was such a head case and would always have that one blow up inning.

bigcat22 said:

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Its sad, but I think Holland was the only significant starter internally developed under JD. I was going to add CJ Wilson, but he was drafted in 2001. Perez always had the potential, but was such a head case and would always have that one blow up inning.

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Another thing that absolutely sucks is it looks like Perez has turned it around for the Twins. 2.89 ERA this year so far.

That's the story of the Rangers. Players leave and become world-beaters elsewhere. MLB is full of "former Ranger greats" that dramatically upped their game as soon as they left.

gomerschlep said:

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That's the story of the Rangers. Players leave and become world-beaters elsewhere. MLB is full of "former Ranger greats" that dramatically upped their game as soon as they left.

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That's a pretty broad statement that I think could be said by every fan base. It is the nature of players moving from team-to-team.

There are also lots of players that did well in Texas and left to do nothing.

Darvish
Cliff Lee
Teixeira..

bigcat22 said:

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Its sad, but I think Holland was the only significant starter internally developed under JD. I was going to add CJ Wilson, but he was drafted in 2001. Perez always had the potential, but was such a head case and would always have that one blow up inning.

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To give JD credit he has done a good job at acquiring pitching talent

Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Yu Darvish
Neftali Feliz
Jake Diekman

Maybe the 2018 draft class will pan out and make me eat crow, but I'd rather the team just produce non-pitching prospects and then use that to trade for a pitching staff once the lineup is ready (which seems to be sooner rather than later). It's seemed to work in the JD era while over a decade of trying to develop pitchers hasn't.

jtstanley4621 said:

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bigcat22 said:

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Its sad, but I think Holland was the only significant starter internally developed under JD. I was going to add CJ Wilson, but he was drafted in 2001. Perez always had the potential, but was such a head case and would always have that one blow up inning.

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Another thing that absolutely sucks is it looks like Perez has turned it around for the Twins. 2.89 ERA this year so far.

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Looks like Volq is throwing long-toss. So, we may have an arm available in the next months or so.

If the Rangers had held on to Perez, we could have 2 of the Top 10 SPs (2.64 & 2.89 ERA) in the AL along with Lynn, ranked 32nd in AL ERA (4.67). Sampson is 1 Out from being 30th (4.44 ERA)

Take that... and say, "Ok, if we add someone like Keuchel, where are we?!"

This season, IMO, will come down to attrition.

The Yanks continue to endure injuries.

Stanton was on his way , and is back on the IL. They have acquired Kendrys Moralys (.204, 1HR, 34G), whom the A's DFA'd. Sabathia is now on the IL.

Tulowitzi and Judge are on the IL.

Where are we, looking at the playoffs??

I think pitching is our biggest deficit. How do we compare to the others?

Minn (5SPs, plus 2GS by 1SP):
Odorizzi: 10GS, 2.38, 1.06
Perez: 7GS, 10G, 2.89, 1.26
Berrios: 10GS, 3.39, 1.13

Houston (5SPs, plus 2G by 1SP):
Verlander: 11GS, 2.24, 0.74
Miley: 10GS, 3.51, 1.17
Peacock: 8GS, 3.59, 1.05

NY Yanks (5SPs, plus 4GS by 2 SP):
German: 9GS, 2.60, 0.98
Tanaka: 10GS, 3.09, 1.13
Paxton: 7GS, 3.11, 1.19

Tampa (5SPs, plus 2GS by 1 SP)
Glasnow: 8GS, 1.86, 0.91
Morton: 10GS, 2.65, 1.20
Snell: 9GS, 3.31, 1.00

Boston (5SPs, 5GS by 2 SP)
Price: 7GS, 3.29, 1.07
Sale: 10GS, 4.31, 1.08
Porcell: 10GS, 4.45, 1.31

Cleveland (5SP, 5GS by 3 SP)
Bieber: 9GS, 3.22, 1.01
Bauer: 11GS, 3.95, 1.17
Carrasco: 10GS, 4.30, 1.22

Texas (2SP, 7 other SPs)
Minor: 10GS, 2.64, 1.13
Sampson: 5GS(11G), 4.44, 1.46
Lynn: 10GS, 4.67, 1.36

We're not in terrible shape, but we could use some help. If Lynn continues to settle in, and Sampson with an Opener, might be viable.

Another name to consider... James Shields

I think once Keuchel signs somewhere, Shields will sign shortly thereafter.

wbt5845 said:

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If you look at today's WAR standings, Minor leads the AL. Hard to fathom. But if he keeps it up we can get a boatload for him.

As much as I'd like a WC run, I want to rebuild more.

BTW - Cole Wynn has his first start tonight

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Trading Minor could return a haul. They mentioned on the radio, that he desires to be an Ace, and that he might be worth trying to extend and keep.

Not sure how I feel about that...

DallasAg 94 said:

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wbt5845 said:

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If you look at today's WAR standings, Minor leads the AL. Hard to fathom. But if he keeps it up we can get a boatload for him.

As much as I'd like a WC run, I want to rebuild more.

BTW - Cole Wynn has his first start tonight

---

Trading Minor could return a haul. They mentioned on the radio, that he desires to be an Ace, and that he might be worth trying to extend and keep.

Not sure how I feel about that...

---

I'm a little torn whether to extend Minor (or not) as well. Looked it up, he is 31 and signed through 2020 at a very affordable rate given his production this year. I would consider approaching him and seeing how much and how many years he would be looking for, but he'd be 32 or possibly 33 when the 2021 season starts. Not sure how many years I'd be willing to extend him for. His best value might be trading him for a nice return. But if we trade him, it needs to be for at least one major league ready arm... not just minor leaguers that need 2 to 3 years to develop. So we'd need to find somebody in the playoff race this year, that also has some top shelf minor league arms.

Maybe this would be a way to unload Choo as well. Package him with Minor and open up a OF/DH spot on the roster.

KT 90 said:

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Maybe this would be a way to unload Choo as well. Package him with Minor and open up a OF/DH spot on the roster.

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Is Choo critical to this season? If we can move him and keep minor, that adds $21M to next year's payroll, along with the $10M remaining this year.

Choo is probably a better defender than Calhoun but if the bats are equivalent... DH is a wash. Choo's OBP, though...

IF we move Choo, and signed Keuchel and Shields, we probably improve the overall team.

If our minor league system wasn't full of pitchers on the shelf with TJ surgery, I'd feel better about trading a guy like Minor that is producing at the MLB level. But as it stands, I want to keep him around.

DallasAg 94 said:

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KT 90 said:

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Maybe this would be a way to unload Choo as well. Package him with Minor and open up a OF/DH spot on the roster.

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Is Choo critical to this season? If we can move him and keep minor, that adds $21M to next year's payroll, along with the $10M remaining this year.

Choo is probably a better defender than Calhoun but if the bats are equivalent... DH is a wash. Choo's OBP, though...

IF we move Choo, and signed Keuchel and Shields, we probably improve the overall team.

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I think your first question is the big one, is Choo critical to this season? If they want to make the WC then yes, if no then try and deal him because I don't think he'll be doing great by the 2021 and beyond window that it appears the team is aiming for. That goes for Minor and Lynn as well.

I'm mainly curious to see what the team is gonna do, trade everyone old while they still can and tank this season, or try and keep the ball rolling to try and build excitement for the new stadiums opening season. I think playing the middle of those two options will not go well, and I also think trying to make the WC this year is also a bad choice. Out of instant gratification though I would selfishly like to see them compete this year even though it'd probably be bad in the long run.

I really like what Minor is doing, but given his age and where we are as an organization, I am for trading him now while the interest is at its peak. At best, we are a WC team this year with not much depth in the minors. I'd prefer to get as much as we can while we can with the hopes of building a true contender in a few years.

I don't see the Rangers as more than a fringe WC contender this year. And please JD, don't make any trades to make a faux wild card run. We don't have the starting pitching depth and because of that our bullpen could collapse at any time due to overuse (due to the starting rotation).

The more I think about it, we should trade Minor soon for peak value. Teams will pay more for a pitcher that is producing under an affordable contract. Try to package Choo too. Choo is still productive but clogging up the LH OF/DH type bats. Choo/Calhoun/Mazara should all be a primary DH and part-time outfielder, but we are trying to cram all of them on the same roster.

This is crazy talk.

We have been looking FOREVER for that elusive ace that's going to go into the game, strike fear into other teams hitters, and shut them down. We had one for half a season in cliff lee. That's it. No ace this whole century, not yet anyway.

We do our homework, offer minor the chance to start, it pays off in a big big way. He's much better than we could've imagined. Now we have our ace, and you guys want to trade him? If, and it's a big IF he's traded, we better get a pitcher who projects to be a reliable starter in the big leagues along with one or two other really good prospects. The offer better blow JD and the front office away. How often do teams trade their ace? I just feel like this is nonsense right now.

The rangers are getting a new stadium next year and they need to get butts in the seats. We still gotta get through games and innings, this team would be unwatchable without minor and Lynn.

Yes, because our window is still several years away and he hasnt shown as an ace for more than a few months.

Other than Houston... I don't really see any teams in the AL, which have established themselves, this year. Look at the rotation information I posted above.

Minn is riding Perez as their #2 guy. He is a guy we willfully discarded for absolutely nothing. We paid him to not pitch for us, this season.

The Yankees? Full of injuries and holes. If they get healthy, they'll be solid. If not, they are just a slump-stretch away from missing the WC.

Boston is a mess. Their pitching is struggling.

Cleveland?! I'm not sold on them.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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This is crazy talk.

We have been looking FOREVER for that elusive ace that's going to go into the game, strike fear into other teams hitters, and shut them down. We had one for half a season in cliff lee. That's it. No ace this whole century, not yet anyway.

We do our homework, offer minor the chance to start, it pays off in a big big way. He's much better than we could've imagined. Now we have our ace, and you guys want to trade him? If, and it's a big IF he's traded, we better get a pitcher who projects to be a reliable starter in the big leagues along with one or two other really good prospects. The offer better blow JD and the front office away. How often do teams trade their ace? I just feel like this is nonsense right now.

The rangers are getting a new stadium next year and they need to get butts in the seats. We still gotta get through games and innings, this team would be unwatchable without minor and Lynn.

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I'm not saying you let him go for a bag of magic seeds, like we had to do with Yu. Yeah, the offer has to blow your doors off. But Minor is only signed through 2020. So even if we keep him, we have to pay $$$ to get him when we're good again. Could we sign him now to buy out some free agency? We could try, but do we want to?

Let's look at his history. He became a regular starter in ATL in 2011. His ERA was around 4.00 that whole time. Shoulder injury makes him miss all of 2015-2016. He signs with KC and has a nice 2017 in the bullpen with a 2.55 ERA. He then sign with Texas, has an average 2018 and now is pitching great.

He has never been consistently an ace type pitcher. If he still is come July, let's talk. But the goal this season was to stockpile talent for 2021/2022. We need young starters who we can have club control over. We need a young catcher, third baseman and center fielder who can be ready by that time frame.

wbt5845 said:

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If you look at today's WAR standings, Minor leads the AL. Hard to fathom. But if he keeps it up we can get a boatload for him.

As much as I'd like a WC run, I want to rebuild more.

BTW - Cole Wynn has his first start tonight

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Cole Winn has 2GS for Hickory.
5-16: 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO
5-22: 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO

wbt5845 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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This is crazy talk.

We have been looking FOREVER for that elusive ace that's going to go into the game, strike fear into other teams hitters, and shut them down. We had one for half a season in cliff lee. That's it. No ace this whole century, not yet anyway.

We do our homework, offer minor the chance to start, it pays off in a big big way. He's much better than we could've imagined. Now we have our ace, and you guys want to trade him? If, and it's a big IF he's traded, we better get a pitcher who projects to be a reliable starter in the big leagues along with one or two other really good prospects. The offer better blow JD and the front office away. How often do teams trade their ace? I just feel like this is nonsense right now.

The rangers are getting a new stadium next year and they need to get butts in the seats. We still gotta get through games and innings, this team would be unwatchable without minor and Lynn.

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He has never been consistently an ace type pitcher. If he still is come July, let's talk. But the goal this season was to stockpile talent for 2021/2022. We need young starters who we can have club control over. We need a young catcher, third baseman and center fielder who can be ready by that time frame.

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My issue with this is the lack of flexibility and adaptable thinking ( not aimed particularly at you). There is a group of fans on other sites who have stated that they don't care what happens this year, they just want to see the development of odor, gallo, Guzman, etc. I hate the idea of "punting" on a season before it's even began. No team has definitely stepped out and asserted themselves in the wildcard race.

Normally, I would agree with these people all the way, but things have changed. We are almost through 50 games and our lineup is playoff quality. We have played the fifth hardest strength of schedule. It feels like the wildcard is still within reach. I'm not saying we should blow up the farm to make a run at a wildcard, but this team could be playing meaningful games in August and september. I don't mind the thought of that. Get the young kids some experience playing in games that matter.

wbt5845 said:

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He has never been consistently an ace type pitcher. If he still is come July, let's talk. But the goal this season was to stockpile talent for 2021/2022. We need young starters who we can have club control over. We need a young catcher, third baseman and center fielder who can be ready by that time frame.

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Catcher is always a need (unless you have Pudge for 20 years), but I think we are covered.

IKF (24) is still a serf next year.
We have Mathis under contract, next year.

Jose Trevino (26-AAA): .240. A very good defensive C.

Samuel Huff (21-A+): .327, 17 HR Total in minors.
A: .333, 15 HR, 30 G
A+: , .313, 2 HR, 13 G

I don't know if Huff is a Major League caliber C, but he is killing it offensively. Splits time between C and DH.

I would like one more catching prospect (personally). I think the game has changed that every MLB roster needs two now.

Yeah, the only issue I have with a WC push is I want more prospects now. I think you can demand a MLB ready young starter AND a top shelf prospect for Minor right now.

Frankly, I think this problem will take care of itself. Too many holes in this rotation to keep winning this much

wbt5845 said:

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I would like one more catching prospect (personally). I think the game has changed that every MLB roster needs two now.

Yeah, the only issue I have with a WC push is I want more prospects now. I think you can demand a MLB ready young starter AND a top shelf prospect for Minor right now.

Frankly, I think this problem will take care of itself. Too many holes in this rotation to keep winning this much

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I agree about C. Both IKF and Trevino are converted SSs, so they don't have the wear-and-tear on their knees... but they also probably don't have the strength to go a full season. That being said... the days of 140 games caught I think are gone.

I want more prospects, as well. The influx of talent has been good to see. Having said THAT... if you can extend Minor 3 years... have him for the next 4 years, he is as good an option in those 3 additional years as any prospect we might get. If he is a #2 or #3... say Lynn is a #3, we'd have two middle of the rotation guys.

If we trade Minor, we really don't have a known SP for 2020 or 2021.

I just don't know that any of the guys in our minors will make the rotation in 2020 or 2021. They could make appearances, but IMO, there isn't anyone that you say, "Yeah, I like him being a #3 in 2021."

And if you have a couple guys that look interesting in the rotation for 2021, you'd like to have at least 2 or 3 guys who can provide certainty.

This year we went in with Minor (high expectations), Lynn (somewhat of a question mark), Miller/Smyly/Volq as unknowns. Volq was a failure. Miller is a failing option and Smyly is the #5 guy that you carry along, believing you at least have 4 options that are working.

Conversely to that, if you trade Minor for a stud starting pitching prospect or two, maybe you have two good SPs for 2019 and 2020.

Like others have said, it feels like the dam will eventually break in terms of pitching this season, unfortunately. If that's the case, I would go and get prospects for Minor. But of course you never know how trades will ultimately work out. Either way, we need pitching prospects in a bad way.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Quote:

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If we trade Minor, we really don't have a known SP for 2020 or 2021.

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But if we keep him, we still only have one starting pitcher for 2020 or 2021, unless we break the bank for FA pitching.

Which we may do - if we think the position players are good enough. There's a reason GMs get paid so much - it's to make these hard choices that everyone's going to lambast them for.

I have little to no confidence in this minor league system delivering starting pitching talent in the next few years. It's not how you want to do it, but this team has to strongly consider keeping Minor + adding a couple of big expense guys while trying to be efficient with what they spend on the lineup (which I think they can do). Just have to choose wisely.

They are about to clear some decent chunks of salary over the next year. I don't see the need to go super cheap. Smyly $7 and Hamels $6 will come off this year. Then Prince $9 and Choo $21 off next year.

I do think this is a team that could contend with that influx

jtstanley4621 said:

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Conversely to that, if you trade Minor for a stud starting pitching prospect or two, maybe you have two good SPs for 2019 and 2020.

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I like the idea of trading Minor and the prospects, but trying to be practical. What would be the ceiling (what you'd be happy with) on what we could get for Minor? Much will hinge on where Keuchel goes. Then Kimbrel and lastly Shields. IMO, those are the most highly sought after additions teams will seek, as they will cost a team, only the money to sign them.

The way this prospects normally work is, the more assurance there is to a SP (and thus the higher in the org), the lower the ceiling. Younger SPs with a higher perceived ceiling, come with more risk, as they are not as far along.

If we were to get a prospect that became a solid #3 for 2021... IMO, that is the best we could hope for. Maybe add a corner OF. Both players are likely Rule V guys. If we want more risk... we could take two (2) guys that will be Rule V guys that we would put on the 40.

Quote:

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Like others have said, it feels like the dam will eventually break in terms of pitching this season, unfortunately. If that's the case, I would go and get prospects for Minor. But of course you never know how trades will ultimately work out. Either way, we need pitching prospects in a bad way.

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I agree, if the team begins to tank, it might make more sense to move Minor. But, keep in mind... Rule V eligible players could wipe out our return for Minor.

Burke (22), Palumbo (24), Hernandez (22) are on our 40 because of RuleV and none of them will be in Arlington in 2020.

Quote:

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Brock Burke (22-L-AA): 3GS, 3.86 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 14 SO
Joe Palumbo (24-L-AA): 7GS, 4.07 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 42.0 IP, 56 SO
Jonathan Hernandez (22-R-AA): 7GS, 6.19 ERA, 1.651 WHIP, 36.1 IP, 40 SO

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Do you think any of those guys are viable for the 2020 rotation?

wbt5845 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Quote:

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If we trade Minor, we really don't have a known SP for 2020 or 2021.

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But if we keep him, we still only have one starting pitcher for 2020 or 2021, unless we break the bank for FA pitching.

Which we may do - if we think the position players are good enough.

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Unless you think we'll promote 5 SPs from our minors into the rotation for 2021, we have to sign a FA SP. That may be extending Minor, or adding a new guy. We have Lance Lynn for 2021. Let's call him a #3. Extend Minor, and now you have a #1/2 and a #3. You plug in one of the guys Burke/Palumbo/J Hernandez as your #5 propsect promotion, and you have 3 SPs.

Add a cost-effective retread/hopeful SP (Volq, Miller, Smyly type) for a roll of the dice and you at least have something to work from.

Conversely, you have Lynn as your best SP. You have risk in promoting a guy currently at AA (Burke/Palumbo/Hern). You hope an unknown journey-SP like Gardewine/ABD/Valdez can eat innings for you. Add some guy in someone else's system that you know nothing about and hope he gets you a rotation guy. Add a retread.

It really is a grim situation.

Quote:

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There's a reason GMs get paid so much - it's to make these hard choices that everyone's going to lambast them for.

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I know... right?!

Old Tom Morris said:

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I have little to no confidence in this minor league system delivering starting pitching talent in the next few years. It's not how you want to do it, but this team has to strongly consider keeping Minor + adding a couple of big expense guys while trying to be efficient with what they spend on the lineup (which I think they can do). Just have to choose wisely.

They are about to clear some decent chunks of salary over the next year. I don't see the need to go super cheap. Smyly $7 and Hamels $6 will come off this year. Then Prince $9 and Choo $21 off next year.

I do think this is a team that could contend with that influx

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We don't owe Hamels $6M. We took Smyly from the Cubs to clear payroll from the Cubs so they would pickup Hamel's option for 2019. We owed the option buyout from Hamels, if the Cubs didn't pick up his option. For us, that gave us a roll of the dice on Smyly for money already spent for Hamels.

I thought Prince was already dealt with, via Insurance and no longer out of our pocket.

Regardless, we are at $118M for 2019 and $85M for 2020 (not including Options, Arb and Serf).

Gallo will be Arb1 and likely expensive.

The $85M for 2020 gives us:
SP: Minor-Lynn-Sampson-SP-SP
RP: Chavez, Kelley, LeClerc, Dowdy, Jurado, Springs

Calhoun-Gallo-Mazara/Choo
3B-Andrus-Odor-Guzman
Mathis-IKF

Util: Santana

Needs for 2020, if roster stands:
3B - Wisdom is at AAA, but doesn't excite me.
CF - We could use a legit CF (Santana?) move Gallo to LF.
2 SPs - Take a risk on promoting an internal SP.

I would love if we could move the $21M for Choo... but that isn't a killer, if he performs like this season.

Do we try to resign Cabrera on the cheap to fill 3B?

Zack Granite (26, on 40) is at AAA, .295, 1 HR, 10 SB.
Leody Taveras (20) is at A+ and has been touted as a future at CF. He is .311, 2HR, and 10 SB

We should certainly have money to spend in 2020.

They are still paying Fielder $9 mill through next year. He was set to make $24 mill, Det picked up $6mill per the trade arrangement, then they had insurance on 50% of the $18mill. So insurance is covering $9 but they are still on the hook for $9 through next year.

But yeah, I'd forgotten picking up Smyly's $7 was the exchange regarding Hamels buyout/option.

Thanks for the clarity on Fielder.

I know part of that was getting him off the 40, so it wouldn't impact the 40 during the off-season when players on the DL60 count on the 40. I had assumed he had been paid out.