*****Official Houston Astros Offseason Thread*****

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iBrad
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10:11p, 12/5/18
AG
Just having JV and Cole 1-2, it's already a better rotation than what we started 2017 with. We'll likely improve it before the season, and if we don't, we could improve it during the season, if needed. We're also going into 2019 with the best bullpen that we've had in many years.

I think we'll miss Morton the most, if we don't resign him (and if he's healthy and his shoulder issues don't resurface next year). We were 19-15 in Keuchel's starts and 15-10 inMcCullers'. From a W-L perspective, that can easily be replaced. I think the concern is come playoff time, who slots into the rotation?
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Harry Dunne
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10:11p, 12/5/18
OK then why don't y'all name 5 better starting rotations with all 5 pitchers under contract, no free agents.

I think we all agree that there is work to be done and we are far from set with our roster but my point is that there are some serious overreactions and undervaluing of our own guys on here.
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rosco511
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 10:20p, 12/5/18
AG
Overreactions is what we do best around here.
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astros4545
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In reply to AustinCountyAg • 11:10p, 12/5/18
AG
AustinCountyAg said:
To think Peacock is a legit #4 SP is laughable. The dude had one serious good year two years ago. I'm not betting on him being anywhere near that good ever again. He's an average to below average #5 starter at best.

As it stands today the Astros have two starting pitchers who are legit. And this is coming from one of the biggest Colin fanboys out there. Their are holes in our pitching that need patching up


Don't recognize your name, can I assume you are new to Houston and most certainly new to the sport of baseball
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Marvin
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12:37a, 12/6/18
AG
Don't panic just yet. I doubt Luhnow has suddenly lost all his front office skills. Let the guy do his job.
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Harry Dunne
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8:17a, 12/6/18
Peacock was our best starter for most of 2017 and had the best WAR on the staff. We did OK that year, right? BTW Mike Fiers led the team in starts that year (with a 5.22 ERA).

McHugh won 19 games and was the clear-cut #2 starter on a good 2015 team. We only had 3 pitchers make >20 starts on that team and the 4-5 guys were the Scotts Feldman & Kazmir.

Rolling it back a little old school, Brandon Backe and his 5+ career ERA was our #4 starter in '05 and all due respect to him for a ballsy WS effort, but McHugh & Peacock are far superior pitchers.

So yeah, we need to sign Morton or pick up an adequate replacement, but that will happen. Some of y'all more dramatically-minded posters and some that are new to baseball need to go look at some numbers and realize that this is not PlayStation. Aside from last season, McHugh & Peacock would be the best 4-5 starters we had to begin the season since the Ryan/Scott era 1980s teams
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Deluxe
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9:03a, 12/6/18
AG
For me it just depends on the overall context of the offseason.

If we sign Harper and trade for Realmuto, then yea, sign me up for a rotation of JV/Cole/McHugh/Peacock/James to start the season and we'll take it from there.

If signing someone like Brantley is our only material offensive upgrade, then I would hope we put some resources into filling out the rotation.

Last year definitely seemed like more exception than rule. Being able to roll out five guys who would be 1 or 2 starter on most staffs is total luxury and can't be achieved year-in, year-out.

The last two World Series champs offer an interesting blue print. In 2017, we were able to lean on JV/Keuchel through the latter part of the season and into the playoffs, but also needed Morton/LMJ/Peacock to get hot at the right time. LMJ and Morton were coming off injuries late in the season. Like others have said, we needed guys like Fiers to eat innings for us through the dog days.

The 2018 Red Sox had an injured ace, a former ace who magically found his old form, an unheralded deadline acquisition and a few other average pitchers who got hot at the right time.

What did both teams have through it all? Historically good offenses. And it didn't hurt that alot of 50/50 plays went their respective ways during their title runs.
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PSully97
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In reply to Deluxe • 9:31a, 12/6/18
AG
Deluxe said:
What did both teams have through it all? Historically good offenses.
Agree with all, especially this part.

What we need most is for all the position players who took a step back in 2018 (almost everyone but Bregman) to stay healthy and/or get back to form. We also "lost" the 2017 versions of McCann and Marwin a year ago and need to replace that production. Don't think it's realistic to expect Tucker + whoever we run out there @ catcher to be able to do that.
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astros4545
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9:32a, 12/6/18
AG
**** Joe West
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TonySoprano
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9:37a, 12/6/18
Still waiting to see what's going to happen after the winter meetings. Yes there is some concern with the pitching staff. But I believe in luhnow to do what's best for our organization
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DVC2010
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In reply to astros4545 • 9:46a, 12/6/18
AG
astros4545 said:
**** Joe West

If I ever participate in a protest of any kind, this is what my sign is going it say.
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. . .
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9:48a, 12/6/18
(Boston)
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Ag_07
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9:49a, 12/6/18
AG
Damn that seems pretty reasonable and not indicative of a bidding war
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FightinTexasAggie08
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In reply to . . . • 9:49a, 12/6/18
. . . said:
(Boston)
Well, sucks for us but I'm happy for him. That's gotta be an amazing feeling to sign a contract to make $68 million over 4 years to play baseball.
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shano0603
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9:51a, 12/6/18
AG
Get Morton back. And after that I'm honestly ok with the 4/5 starters being a mix of McHugh/James/peacock to start the year. We could very well see Whitley this season. If things don't go well we can add an arm during the season.

Trust in what Luhnow has been doing. Which is not getting beat in trades and not overpaying.

Don't forget that Evoldi had a 3.81 era last year. He pitched better when he was traded to the Sox and did well in the playoffs. But 20 million a year for him is a stretch.
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Harry Dunne
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9:57a, 12/6/18
He had an amazing postseason, but other than that I'm not sure Eovaldi is an upgrade over what we've already got.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 9:59a, 12/6/18
AG
Harry Dunne said:
He had an amazing postseason, but other than that I'm not sure Eovaldi is an upgrade over what we've already got.
I think he is. Especially with Strom. But he's not some elite talent. He's not Corbin. he's not Dallas. This deal seems about right after his performance last year, regular season and post.
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Frok
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 10:01a, 12/6/18
AG
bearkatag15 said:
F off Boston



Update: Luhnow got his butt handed to him by another GM again.
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n_touch
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In reply to Frok • 10:06a, 12/6/18
is that the case or did he not want to overpay for talent and then be behind in a year or two when more money was needed.
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TonySoprano
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10:07a, 12/6/18
I think he's trying to play his cards right to keep our core and/or land a big fish down the road. We will see how this move shakes out.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 10:08a, 12/6/18
AG
Harry Dunne said:
I'm not sure Eovaldi is an upgrade over what we've already got.

Man you're pretty high on a McHugh, Peacock, and the unproven rookies.

Or maybe just plain high...I don't know but I think Eovaldi, while not elite, is better that what we have and would be a sure upgrade.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:16a, 12/6/18
Ag_07 said:
Harry Dunne said:
I'm not sure Eovaldi is an upgrade over what we've already got.

Man you're pretty high on a McHugh, Peacock, and the unproven rookies.

Or maybe just plain high...I don't know but I think Eovaldi, while not elite, is better that what we have and would be a sure upgrade.
Just high on life brother.

I am high on our guys, because my analysis is numbers-driven and not emotionally driven. The whole reason guys like Luhnow have been able to be successful is it because even at the highest levels there are so many guys who overvalue small samples and the eyeball test. Eovaldi was nails in the postseason and is predictably overrated. If not, show me the numbers - show me how he is such a big upgrade over McHugh and Peacock.

Don't get me wrong I'd love to have Eovaldi, just not at that price. He may be an upgrade, just not worth (to us) what the Red Sox were willing to pay for him. You and I can argue all day long but the fact that the Astros front office agrees with me is really the strongest thing in my favor.
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Frok
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In reply to n_touch • 10:17a, 12/6/18
AG
n_touch said:
is that the case or did he not want to overpay for talent and then be behind in a year or two when more money was needed.


You aren't going to sign impact pitchers for cheap.
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Bobby Jimbo
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10:19a, 12/6/18
AG
If the rumor about the Astros signing a guy that would rock the fan base is true, my guess is that it would be Brantley or CarGo. We need a solid left-handed bat in the everyday lineup to play LF since Marwin is gone. If Tucker turns out to be the real deal, we could move either Brantley or CarGo to DH.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 10:23a, 12/6/18
AG
I do agree that Eovaldi's hype was driven by his postseason run. He made himself some money.

But I also think that $16.8M per year is pretty fair for him. Pitching ain't cheap. I imagine that the 4 years was the hang up. That's a long time if you find out that his postseason was a fluke.

And my only hesitation comes from the fact that McHugh and Peacock haven't started games in quite a while. McHugh missed most of 2017 with the injury so he hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2016. His 19 game season will be 4 seasons ago in 2019.

So yes there numbers are comparable but it's almost apples and oranges. Can he step back into a starting role and produce like he was 3-4 years ago?
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:27a, 12/6/18
Ag_07 said:
I do agree that Eovaldi's hype was driven by his postseason run. He made himself some money.

But I also think that $16.8M per year is pretty fair for him. Pitching ain't cheap. I imagine that the 4 years was the hang up. That's a long time if you find out that his postseason was a fluke.

And my only hesitation comes from the fact that McHugh and Peacock haven't started games in quite a while. McHugh missed most of 2017 with the injury so he hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2016. His 19 game season will be 4 seasons ago in 2019.
True about the cost of pitching and fair enough but our 2 guys weren't starters in 2018 because of an embarrassment of SP riches, not because of inability or injury.

Just take a look at all of their numbers and show me why Eovaldi is so much better. He hasn't exactly been a reliable workhorse either & the results are fairly similar. I think the Astros front office concluded that it's better to go with our (cheaper) guys and either pay more for a proven commodity or identify a better bargain like Morton or McHugh at the time we picked them up, which seems to be their specialty.
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FightinTexasAggie08
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10:29a, 12/6/18
I'm really happy with the guy we got from Toronto; I think he's a perfect plug and play and the closest thing to Marwin that we were going to find on the market.

I really wish we had gotten Goldschmidt, that ones stings big time.

I trust Luhnow, but I know that during the season last year I had a niggling fear that the bats just weren't going to be enough, and sure enough we got bit by a lack of production.

We need to land some firepower, AND some starters
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Frok
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10:38a, 12/6/18
AG
Quote:
I think the Astros front office concluded that it's better to go with our (cheaper) guys and either pay more for a proven commodity or identify a better bargain like Morton or McHugh at the time we picked them up, which seems to be their specialty.


Every source said the Astros were in on Evaldi. They got beat out by Boston.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Frok • 10:40a, 12/6/18
Frok said:
Quote:
I think the Astros front office concluded that it's better to go with our (cheaper) guys and either pay more for a proven commodity or identify a better bargain like Morton or McHugh at the time we picked them up, which seems to be their specialty.


Every source said the Astros were in on Evaldi. They got beat out by Boston.
Frok said:
n_touch said:
is that the case or did he not want to overpay for talent and then be behind in a year or two when more money was needed.


You aren't going to sign impact pitchers for cheap.
Definitely true of proven pitchers, I just don't think you can put Eovaldi in the category of "impact pitchers" based on one postseason.

Our front office has a proven track record of identifying bargain pitchers who turned out to make great impacts and has also shown a willingness to pay big for proven commodities like JV and Cole...and has also been smart about not getting into bidding wars and overpaying.

Time will tell if we got "beat out" or if the Red Sox overpaid. I'm betting on our guys.
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Deluxe
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10:41a, 12/6/18
AG
It seems like if we're going to acquire a front line starter, it will be via trade.

I was sort of indifferent on Eovaldi. Some obvious pros/cons to paying him $17mm/year.
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PSully97
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In reply to Frok • 10:44a, 12/6/18
AG
Frok said:
Quote:
I think the Astros front office concluded that it's better to go with our (cheaper) guys and either pay more for a proven commodity or identify a better bargain like Morton or McHugh at the time we picked them up, which seems to be their specialty.


Every source said the Astros were in on Evaldi. They got beat out by Boston.
I guess we won't know until "Astroball 2" comes out, but could it be that our front office is really smart and was driving up the price vs. our biggest competition? Either way I don't think we got beat out. It's not like the organization ran out of money and it's not the trade deadline during a pennant run and getting this guy makes or breaks our postseason like JV 2017.

Luhnow had a number and wasn't willing to overpay. If we are going to overpay, let's overpay for one more year of Charlie Morton who already fits and has more than earned it.
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iBrad
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11:05a, 12/6/18
AG
Eovaldi has had two Tommy John surgeries. I'm sure we were in on him, but I doubt we were in the neighborhood of what Boston offered. We were probably trying to get a hometown discount because of his injury history.
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PSully97
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In reply to Ag_07 • 11:06a, 12/6/18
AG
Ag_07 said:
And my only hesitation comes from the fact that McHugh and Peacock haven't started games in quite a while. McHugh missed most of 2017 with the injury so he hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2016. His 19 game season will be 4 seasons ago in 2019.

So yes there numbers are comparable but it's almost apples and oranges. Can he step back into a starting role and produce like he was 3-4 years ago?
Eovaldi has had 2 Tommy John surgeries and missed all of 2017.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 11:15a, 12/6/18
AG
Harry Dunne said:
Ag_07 said:
I do agree that Eovaldi's hype was driven by his postseason run. He made himself some money.

But I also think that $16.8M per year is pretty fair for him. Pitching ain't cheap. I imagine that the 4 years was the hang up. That's a long time if you find out that his postseason was a fluke.

And my only hesitation comes from the fact that McHugh and Peacock haven't started games in quite a while. McHugh missed most of 2017 with the injury so he hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2016. His 19 game season will be 4 seasons ago in 2019.
True about the cost of pitching and fair enough but our 2 guys weren't starters in 2018 because of an embarrassment of SP riches, not because of inability or injury.

Just take a look at all of their numbers and show me why Eovaldi is so much better. He hasn't exactly been a reliable workhorse either & the results are fairly similar. I think the Astros front office concluded that it's better to go with our (cheaper) guys and either pay more for a proven commodity or identify a better bargain like Morton or McHugh at the time we picked them up, which seems to be their specialty.
He got healthy after the 2nd TJ and picked up another pitch. That is why he had his best season of his career.

His K-BB % grew from a steady 11.6, 10.7, 10.9 and then to 17.8.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Frok • 11:17a, 12/6/18
AG
Frok said:
bearkatag15 said:
F off Boston



Update: Luhnow got his butt handed to him by another GM again.
By ass handed to him you mean the Red Sox gave more money than Jeff was willing to give based on very calculated evaluations.
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