Mr.Bond said:

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I'm not giving up anything legit without goldschmidt signing an extension

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I would. He's the type of guy at first we've been needing. He's one of the best in the game.

I think it's unlikely that we'd be able to retain Goldschmidt on a long term deal and also do the following (warning: debatable assumptions below):

Cole - 5 year, $100mm deal after 2019 season

JV - 2 year, $50mm extension after 2019 season

Altuve - contract escalates to $30mm after 2019 season

Springer - arb salary escalates to ~$20mm in 2020 and then pay him ~$25mm/year to stay long term

Correa (assuming 2018 was a write off year) - arb salary escalates to ~$20mm by 2021, then pay him $25-30mm/year to stay long term

Bregman - arb salary escalates to ~$15mm 2021 and ~$25mm in 2022 (wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately receives the highest arbitration contract ever), then pay him ~$30mm/year to stay long term

Basically if we build around those core 6, by my rough math we've got ~$105mm allocated in 2020, $130mm in 2021, $125mm in 2022 (JV comes off the books, Correa/Bregman escalate) and $130mm in 2023. Then we still have to fill in 19 other spots on the 25 man roster. I'm not counting on Crane to open up the wallet for one more big money, long term deal like Goldschmidt. I'd obviously love for him to, but it's not my money haha.

Yeah I expect payroll to increase as this team continues to make deep playoff runs.

Also, I don't think Crane and the FO mind big contracts as long as they are to players that they identify as being likely to sustain their production. Goldy seems like a player that fits that mold. Dependable, durable, high floor type of player.

I'll be surprised if we resign Springer. Unless Correa has a long stretch of healthy and productive play, my bet would be that he walks as well.

AgFan1999 said:

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as long as Tucker is unproven at the big league level, I think the option to bring Springer back is always on the table.

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I think we will have a much clearer picture about Tucker when the Springer decision comes

Yep.

Tucker is key to what ends up happening to Springer.

If he is traded or continues to scuffle then Springer will end up being resigned as the cornerstone OFer. If he meets expectations and produces like we expect him to then they can afford to let Springer walk and build around Tucker.

Ag_07 said:

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Yeah I expect payroll to increase as this team continues to make deep playoff runs.

Also, I don't think Crane and the FO mind big contracts as long as they are to players that they identify as being likely to sustain their production. Goldy seems like a player that fits that mold. Dependable, durable, high floor type of player.

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I do too and I hope that you are right. Will be interesting to see if Crane is willing to go into luxury tax land (which I think is ~$200mm and will escalate a little by the time our "Core 6" come due). If he is willing, then we could probably fit one more big long term deal under the umbrella. And agree that Goldy seems like the type of player we should use it on.

Bregman showing MVP level play practically guarantees Correa won't be with us long term. Correa will want big money after never having reached his full potential and being injured every single season.

Obviously I'm projecting here, but he really soured me this past year. Every year, its always something. Can't stay healthy, and hasn't gotten better than he was two years ago. I know he's young.. but I need to see a lot of improvement soon to justify the value that he's certainly going to want to be paid for.

Mets are seriously considering dealing Syndergaard.

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The Mets are "seriously considering" trade scenarios for high-end righty Noah Syndergaard, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Per the report, at least six rival organizations are "real players" for the high-octane starter.

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Wonder if we're one of the six.

And FYI he's 26 and will be making a projected 5.9M via arb plus 2 more years of team control.

I would too

That would essentially take care of our rotation concerns.

JV/Cole/Syndergaard/McHugh or Morton/Framber or James

Ag_07 said:

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I would too

That would essentially take care of our rotation concerns.

JV/Cole/Syndergaard/McHugh or Morton/Framber or James

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Would be unbeatable with just an average offense.. and even if we don't add bats, we are at worst above average.

Yah, Whitley definitely worth giving up for Thor

Any interest in CJ Cron has a potential DH target?

DFA'ed by Tampa. Hit .253 with 30 HRs and a 2.0 WAR. Could be a cheap stop gap.

AgFan1999 said:

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as long as Tucker is unproven at the big league level, I think the option to bring Springer back is always on the table.

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I don't think you look at it like that. Springer will be north of 30 and asking for a serious payday. I've yet to see Luhnow pay long term for an aging position player. Maybe I'm missing someone. And, maybe Springer will accept a shorter deal. Beats me, just my opinion.

Marvin said:

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AgFan1999 said:

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as long as Tucker is unproven at the big league level, I think the option to bring Springer back is always on the table.

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I don't think you look at it like that. Springer will be north of 30 and asking for a serious payday. I've yet to see Luhnow pay long term for an aging position player. Maybe I'm missing someone. And, maybe Springer will accept a shorter deal. Beats me, just my opinion.

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Altuve is the only player to receive a long term contract from Jeff.

This was the first year true pieces of the team hit the market with Marwin & Dallas. It doesn't look like either will see a dime.

Harry Dunne said:

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It seems like Luhnow will smartly not overpay for services already rendered. That means one of "our guys" may get into the Hall of Fame wearing somebody else's cap, but not being sentimental about players is the only way to have sustained excellence. Altuve is an exception because he came up so early that his contract came at a time when he still in his prime. Springer came up later and/or was held back so it's a different deal.

Fans tend to villainize the teams for doing this, but at the end of the day all of these big free-agent types are getting a ludicrous amount of money and would it really be such a big deal for them to take a little bit less in order to stay?

There is a number the Astros would offer Keuchel and will offer Springer that is enough for their families to be more than set for two generations & still stay with the team. Good for them if they want to go for more, and thanks for the memories, but I'd rather the Stros stay more competitive but have to see those guys wear a Yankees cap to Cooperstown than the inverse.

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That was the Cardinals strategy during their 10-15 year successful run and I suspect it will be ours too.

Well said

And I think Springer may be one of those types who stays. Based on what we've learned about George I just think he's the type who would struggle in a big market like LA, BOS, or NY.

I think comfortability is a huge factor of his performance. Moreso than your typical MLB player.

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Correa will want big money after never having reached his full potential and being injured every single season.

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The injuries are concerning (he did play 153 games and take 660 PAs in 2016)...but 2016 and 2017 Correa were plenty good for a pretty darn nice contract even if he's "not reaching his full potential."

WelchAg said:

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This year furthered my desire to see Springer retire an Astro. Something about that guy just makes this team seem complete.

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it will be interesting to see what happens with Springer...but the player has to help out the organization too. Can't be demanding some crazy mega-contract

HossAg said:

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mazag08 said:

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Bregman showing MVP level play practically guarantees Correa won't be with us long term. Correa will want big money after never having reached his full potential and being injured every single season.

Obviously I'm projecting here, but he really soured me this past year. Every year, its always something. Can't stay healthy, and hasn't gotten better than he was two years ago. I know he's young.. but I need to see a lot of improvement soon to justify the value that he's certainly going to want to be paid for.

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Wtf. "Every year"? Dude he's been here 3 years and he's done nothing to that should sour your attitude towards him. If you're fine with him walking that's ok, but there shouldn't be hard feelings.

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I wanted correa, I've loved Correa, and I root hard for Correa. But watching Lindor pass him both offensively and defensively while Correa fights to stay healthy is frustrating. Correa should be two year of production ahead of Lindor based on talent, yet the Indians know what they have and we are still here touting pie in the sky potential we may never see.

I've seen enough of Correa to know he absolutely can get everything together. 2019 is an important year for him.

Harry Dunne said:

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I hope so. Pujols is exhibit A.

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Who is still owed $87MM. I absolutely love the fact that the only Astro on this list is Yuli at just $18MM. Some of these numbers will weigh heavily on teams into the future.

Contract Swap Candidates

yep, and the terrible Cano contract is a big reason why the Mariners went into rebuilding mode