Chipotlemonger said:

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Ag2012 said:

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Your reading comprehension isn't great is it?

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Yes he completely blew by your point.

they don't understand the correlation between winning and luck.

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I understand it completely. Correlation =/= causation.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Ag2012 said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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36-11 in 1-run games last year.

6-14 in 1-run games this year.


But that Rangers team was different. They weren't "lucky." They just "knew how to win."

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Incredible that y'all still cling to this tired narrative. First of all, we won the division by 9 games (11 games ahead of Houston). Swap 8 of those 1 run wins for losses and we win the division by a game with a one run game win % of 0.595, which would be lower than the Astros current one run win % (0.625). Good teams win close games. Sure we had some lucky breaks and won more one run games than we should have, we also had some unlucky breaks with injuries. That's the way baseball go.

We started the year with a bunch of injuries, lost some key pieces over the offseason and our bullpen imploded, so we're having a worse season. To act like our one run record last season has any bearing on this season is a stretch at best.

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That's a really convenient arbitrary number you chose.

How about referring to that convenient chart that 538 made. Your bullpen WAR last year suggested that your win% in 1-run games should have been more around the .500 mark or actually below if you use the trend line.

Which would have made you a .500ish team.

Same as the +13 mark in pythagorean win% last year. Again, .500.

Just like you are this year.

We tried to warn you guys. We tried. And the ones in here discussing it. I commend you. 80% of the posters that laughed at all my pythagorean gobbledy gook are completely AWOL.

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We won the division by NINE GAMES. We're halfway through the next season and you're still acting like it doesn't count. We have a different team with different circumstances this year that has experienced different results. No matter what you say, that's not a "reversion to the mean." Unless you predicted that Beltre would start the season hurt, Hamels and Gomez would spend significant time on the DL and our free agency moves would be a net loss then you didn't predict jack *****

THIS is why we laugh at you for the way you talk sabermetrics. Not because of the numbers, but because you try so damn hard to use them to invalidate a full season of results. That's not how statistics work, no matter how hard you want it to be the case. The Cubs fell off a cliff this year too, does that mean last season for them was an aberration? No, it means that small roster changes make big differences and baseball success is hard to maintain from one year to the next.

We had a remarkable, historic season last year. Enjoying that isn't statistical ignorance, it's called fanhood. They don't put asterisks on trophies and banners because the statistical best team didn't win. You play the game on the field and you live with the results afterward. Let it go.

I'm not even sure what the point of continuing to discuss this is. As much as you boys want to pretend we have no concept of what advanced statistics are or what you're saying it comes down to we just don't agree with your read on it or your insistance that losing several key players from last year's team that ultimately didn't get replaced by better players and others that have seen a significant drop in production over their respective norms doesn't matter. I realize it's the TexAgs pastime to beat a dead horse but it's safe to say that you're not convincing us and we're not convincing you and that does come to which team you root for. If you'd like to lie to yourself and say you'd be agreeing with your current opinion were you a Rangers fan that's fine but we all know that's a crock.

Does anybody else not want to be at work today? Holy **** this day will suck

And? The Astros are phenomenally deep. Has anyone made some argument that the Rangers have more depth or are the better team this year? If they did it was early. Hell, half your guys didn't even believe Keuchel was hurt the second time because they thought he was just getting rested because you were so deep and winning so much. Acting like your ability to weather injuries is even remotely comparable is just stupid. We pretty much all knew we wouldn't be able to handle too many injuries.

And again, I still have zero problem with the Gomez signing. He started cold but has been a predominantly solid contributor. I know you guys watch his stat line like hawks to convince yourselves he sucks and it wasn't just that it didn't work in Houston but good lord.

So, you can use the "we have guys on the DL" excuse as to why you suck, but when it's pointed out that the Astros have maintained and grew a division lead with the 3 best pitchers on the DL, it's "depth?" Did you see who we put up to pitch on Friday night? We have depth because we are forced to. Hell, our current ace is only that because of everybody else being on the DL. If all were healthy, he'd be in the bullpen or a trade piece.

In your world a team that has no depth versus a team that does is going to be affected by numerous key injuries the same way? Not so much. I realize you boys like to meltdown every three minutes even as well as your team has been playing but there's not much of a comparison between the two rosters as far as depth goes.

Why does one team have depth while another doesn't? I think the answer was discussed earlier in this thread but it's not going to happen since the WC spot is somewhat in reach.

AccidentProne said:

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Does anybody else not want to be at work today? Holy **** this day will suck

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I'm one of 4 people in my 25ish person group who's at work today. I guess the silver lining is I hopefully won't have to listen to co-workers clip their fingernails?

I, for one, am just looking forward to an honest, candid statistical discussion of the sustainability of the Astros results this season when they get knocked out of the ALDS by KC.

No, but the denial of where your team realistically is is only delaying it for you.

Speaking of farm systems, what do y'all have in terms of 2B for when Altuve leaves in a couple years? I bet he looks taller in pinstripes...

Ag2012 said:

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I, for one, am just looking forward to an honest, candid statistical discussion of the sustainability of the Astros results this season when they get knocked out of the ALDS by KC.

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Honestly, the Rangers might actually have a better chance of finishing in the one wild card spot that wont definitely go to an AL East team than the Royals.

Not really. All anyone has ever said is that it is not necessary to suck on historical levels to rebuild. Nobody is saying that they shouldn't sell on certain pieces should the be knocked out of contention. Even in contention I'm not in favor of being major buyers to get into a wild card spot and I'd be fine with moving a guy like Lucroy if the opportunity arises while still going for a WC spot.

Odor isn't the key link to our batting order. If you think production won't fall apart if/when one of the top hitters in the AL is replaced by a below average hitter (Bregman has a wRC+ of 95), you're only kidding yourself.

Also for all that y'all want to talk about luck and peripherals, let's talk about Marwin and Rougned. Both are below average career hitters, Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 98, Odor is at 95. In 466 MLB games Odor has a 4.8 WAR, in 581 games Gonzalez has a 3.9 WAR. The difference this year is Marwin has a .338 BABIP against a historic career BABIP of .303, Odor has a BABIP of .237 against a historic career BABIP of .292. One is having a really lucky season, the other is having a tremendously unlucky season.

So you're not giving up but just selling away your starting catcher. Cmon. Even you didn't not really believe that.

The guy is a free agent this year and has largely been a bust so far and the back up is decent defensively and has set a career high in homeruns in limited action.

We all know it's going over. Firesell everyone. You'll thank me in a few years.

aggie1906 said:

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We all know it's going over. Firesell everyone. You'll thank me in a few years.

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I'm dead serious... it would be brilliant to do it now. Have the crop of rebuild prospects landing right about the time the new stadium opens. But no, they're too big for that.

If I was in their shoes and it looked like the Astros were about to run the west for at least a few years... it would give me even more ammo to proceed in that direction.

Ag2012 said:

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Odor isn't the key link to our batting order. If you think production won't fall apart if/when one of the top hitters in the AL is replaced by a below average hitter (Bregman has a wRC+ of 95), you're only kidding yourself.

Also for all that y'all want to talk about luck and peripherals, let's talk about Marwin and Rougned. Both are below average career hitters, Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 98, Odor is at 95. In 466 MLB games Odor has a 4.8 WAR, in 581 games Gonzalez has a 3.9 WAR. The difference this year is Marwin has a .338 BABIP against a historic career BABIP of .303, Odor has a BABIP of .237 against a historic career BABIP of .292. One is having a really lucky season, the other is having a tremendously unlucky season.

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This is actually good analysis. I've wondered myself about Matwin's Babip. One thing though.. is that he adjusted his hands in his stance which he credits to helping get his hands to the ball quicker. Does that all of the sudden make him an all star caliber hitter? Could him entering his prime have anything to do with it? We don't have nearly enough evidence either way. We can start to make conclusions at the end of this season, but in reality, we would need another season's data to make accurate conclusions.

It's likely though that his BABIP will drop some. Keep in mind that Babip doesn't count homeruns, and he's on a career tear in that category.

His hard hit ball ration is down this year (33.2% to 29.1%) and his softly hit ball ratio is up (14.7% to 19.0%), which implies that his BABIP is especially flukey. As far as the home runs are concerned, I don't know where they have the data for this but Fangraphs was talking a couple weeks ago about how he has one of the lowest average home run distances in the league, so he's pretty much been feasting on wall scrapers to the short corners in MMP. It's a fascinating season for him for sure.

Ag2012 said:

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His hard hit ball ration is down this year (33.2% to 29.1%) and his softly hit ball ratio is up (14.7% to 19.0%), which implies that his BABIP is especially flukey. As far as the home runs are concerned, I don't know where they have the data for this but Fangraphs was talking a couple weeks ago about how he has one of the lowest average home run distances in the league, so he's pretty much been feasting on wall scrapers to the short corners in MMP. It's a fascinating season for him for sure.

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That doesn't sound accurate.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2015_2702&type=hitter&sortm=fb_hr_type&sort=desc

Only 3 were just enough and of the 3 they were crushed but just low liners.
He's not hitting shots like Judge or Stanton, but he's also not just sneaking out home runs due to playing in MMP.

It is. Second shortest average home run distance of players with at least 9 HRs.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/golden_sledgehammer.php

Ag2012 said:

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His hard hit ball ration is down this year (33.2% to 29.1%) and his softly hit ball ratio is up (14.7% to 19.0%), which implies that his BABIP is especially flukey. As far as the home runs are concerned, I don't know where they have the data for this but Fangraphs was talking a couple weeks ago about how he has one of the lowest average home run distances in the league, so he's pretty much been feasting on wall scrapers to the short corners in MMP. It's a fascinating season for him for sure.

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The other side of the spectrum is that his BB% and K% have drastically improved.

His fly ball percentage is at an all time high.

There's a very specific reason for this. He made a pretty drastic change in his swing this offseason... very similar to a few others like Josh Donaldson. This breakout is likely for real. Now, is it nearly 1.000 OPS for real? No, he's had some batted ball luck, but it's not enough to suggest he's the same ol marwin.

Ag2012 said:

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It is. Second shortest average home run distance of players with at least 9 HRs.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/golden_sledgehammer.php

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Because he's not hitting towering blasts does not mean "so he's pretty much been feasting on wall scrapers to the short corners in MMP."

He hits pull shots down the lines. Most parks are ~330 down the line. Look at the spray. Most of clearly gone and the tracker agrees which is why 11 of his home runs are either plenty or no doubters.

I know y'all struggle with sabermetrics but the numbers say he's due for a regression.