**Official Texas Rangers 2017 Season Thread** Staff Warning on OP

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Mr Gigem
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Also, both Choo and and Gomez seem optimistic about their injuries. With the off day today, I'd bet to see them back on Tuesday
jtstanley4621
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Where do y'all think Gallo's ideal spot once Beltre comes back is now?

I felt like the obvious answer initially was LF when we were getting essentially nothing out of that position, but DeShields has made himself into a pretty crucial part of what we can do on offense by continuing to get on base. At this point I definitely wouldn't sit DeShields. You also can't take Mazara out of RF. Given how Napoli has performed so far this year I feel like Gallo would make the most sense at 1B, although he doesn't have as much experience at the position as Napoli.


rwhitlock3
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corleoneAg99 said:

AccidentProne said:

rwhitlock3 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Thought this was a fun comparison...Rangers have three players with a wRC+ of 100 or more:

Gallo 132
Choo 110
Andrus 107

The Astros?

They have 6.

McCann 140
Correa 135
Altuve 131
Springer 124
Reddick 121
Bregman 102


So nothing earth shattering. Astros are the best team in baseball right now(combining 2nd in team wRC+ and 2nd in team xFIP) but the quartet of Maz, Odor, Gomez, and Napoli as a group have been really bad.

They can't stay that bad as a group all year right? Maz and Odor need to be on the list above. Gomez is a wildcard.

Other name missing?

Man Lucroy has been bad. And he's not this bad. Over the past three years he's been second in baseball In combined WAR. Of course Posey is first.

So far this season he's freaking 10th.

So considering the offensive performance of the everyday lineup, for them to only be two games under 500 is pretty encouraging. Even as competition ramps up beyond SD and OAK the Rangers might be due for some positive regression. Which, considering their 2016 season and the commentary around it, is pretty ironic.
What does wRC stand for? I know that WAR is Wins Above Replacement, but I haven't heard that other one?

I love the statistics of baseball, but these advanced metrics are getting crazy. And the Lastros fans using them as defense is just dumb, you don't play the game on paper, its played on the field and won on the field with some improbable stuff that even the most advanced metrics can't predict.
Careful using that logic. If you post that on the trash talk thread, you're guaranteed to get the entire fangraphs website thrown at you.

I get that ERA is still a predictive measure, but it factors only what has actually happened. It doesn't take into account flyballs, and hard hit balls, and whatever else that goes into FIP and xFIP. Anytime I see someone use those metrics, all I can think about is when the Super Bowl or some other big game is simulated by ESPN or whomever, and whatever the outcome of that simulation is then that is what is supposed to happen.

Don't get me wrong, those metrics are cool and have meaning, but I don't think they should be considered law like SOME fanbases think

Yeah I'm a Fangraphs junkie and love their stuff but even they would tell you no one thing is law. It's a culmination

When it comes to stats like ERA and why some prefer FIP and/or xFIP, it's really about attempting to isolate the pitcher's value by factoring out things they don't control...and we're basically talking about fielding, park, etc, right?

So it just depends on the point you are try to convey. If the point is purely results based, you could take wins and ERA. If you're trying to extract two guys out of their specific situations and working to compile a good fair comparison between the two, some of these metrics can help.

IMO anyway.
Wow, that is all some really complicated stuff. I can see the value of it and find it really interesting, but bottom line is, "upsets" and unpredictable things happen all the time. I was reading in the Trash Talk forum and all they were talking about was advanced metrics and I thought that was a dumb argument. But it is really interesting to dive deeper into the mainstream statistics. Thanks for the info!
rwhitlock3
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I think we have to have him in the lineup. I agree with AP that I would want to see Beltre play 5 games a week at 3B getting one to two days off a week to rest up and keep him fresh throughout the year. Gallo has done amazing at 3B and is a far better defensive player than I thought, but he is no Gold Glover like Beltre. I think we give him a start or two at DH, 1B, and 3B per week with maybe a LF start thrown in every once in a while because I want his bat in the lineup 6 days a week. The only question is, does all this moving around the diamond defensively mess with his mind and cause him to regress at the plate...?
DannyDuberstein
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jtstanley4621 said:

Where do y'all think Gallo's ideal spot once Beltre comes back is now?

I felt like the obvious answer initially was LF when we were getting essentially nothing out of that position, but DeShields has made himself into a pretty crucial part of what we can do on offense by continuing to get on base. At this point I definitely wouldn't sit DeShields. You also can't take Mazara out of RF. Given how Napoli has performed so far this year I feel like Gallo would make the most sense at 1B, although he doesn't have as much experience at the position as Napoli.
At this point, I think it's 1B. He cannot be any worse than the disaster that Napoli is over there. Send Nap to DH.
DannyDuberstein
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Quote:

The only question is, does all this moving around the diamond defensively mess with his mind and cause him to regress at the plate...
Yeah, I think they need to be very careful about Profar-ing him. I'd really try to limit him to 3rd and one other position.
jtstanley4621
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DannyDuberstein said:

Quote:

The only question is, does all this moving around the diamond defensively mess with his mind and cause him to regress at the plate...
Yeah, I think they need to be very careful about Profar-ing him. I'd really try to limit him to 3rd and one other position.
Yeah for sure. There's something to be said for getting to play the same position every single day. Allows you to settle into a routine. It wouldn't surprise me to hear Gallo say that that is one of the reasons why he feels like he's playing better overall this season.
DannyDuberstein
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It's also why I'm not ready to write Profar off yet. He missed 2 full years to injury. Came back to play 40 games in the minors, and then after called up, he has played all over the field and been in and out of the lineup. If he was a 30 year old veteran, it may be one thing. But with a young player who has his development severely interrupted by injury, I think it's a formula for failure for most players. So I'm glad to see him down at AAA and hopefully he'll find a groove with a routine.
Baby Billy
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DannyDuberstein said:

jtstanley4621 said:

Where do y'all think Gallo's ideal spot once Beltre comes back is now?

I felt like the obvious answer initially was LF when we were getting essentially nothing out of that position, but DeShields has made himself into a pretty crucial part of what we can do on offense by continuing to get on base. At this point I definitely wouldn't sit DeShields. You also can't take Mazara out of RF. Given how Napoli has performed so far this year I feel like Gallo would make the most sense at 1B, although he doesn't have as much experience at the position as Napoli.
At this point, I think it's 1B. He cannot be any worse than the disaster that Napoli is over there. Send Nap to DH.
Okay, Choo?
jtstanley4621
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I don't think his career story is written yet, but I just don't really see where he fits on the Rangers going forward. I don't think he really wants to play outfield long-term, and it would seem like Elvis and Odor are sitting in the spots Profar most projects to for most of the foreseeable future. The only infield spot where I feel like he would make sense would be 3B, and Gallo seems to be the future at that position.
Squirrel Master
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rwhitlock3 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

AccidentProne said:

rwhitlock3 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Thought this was a fun comparison...Rangers have three players with a wRC+ of 100 or more:

Gallo 132
Choo 110
Andrus 107

The Astros?

They have 6.

McCann 140
Correa 135
Altuve 131
Springer 124
Reddick 121
Bregman 102


So nothing earth shattering. Astros are the best team in baseball right now(combining 2nd in team wRC+ and 2nd in team xFIP) but the quartet of Maz, Odor, Gomez, and Napoli as a group have been really bad.

They can't stay that bad as a group all year right? Maz and Odor need to be on the list above. Gomez is a wildcard.

Other name missing?

Man Lucroy has been bad. And he's not this bad. Over the past three years he's been second in baseball In combined WAR. Of course Posey is first.

So far this season he's freaking 10th.

So considering the offensive performance of the everyday lineup, for them to only be two games under 500 is pretty encouraging. Even as competition ramps up beyond SD and OAK the Rangers might be due for some positive regression. Which, considering their 2016 season and the commentary around it, is pretty ironic.
What does wRC stand for? I know that WAR is Wins Above Replacement, but I haven't heard that other one?

I love the statistics of baseball, but these advanced metrics are getting crazy. And the Lastros fans using them as defense is just dumb, you don't play the game on paper, its played on the field and won on the field with some improbable stuff that even the most advanced metrics can't predict.
Careful using that logic. If you post that on the trash talk thread, you're guaranteed to get the entire fangraphs website thrown at you.

I get that ERA is still a predictive measure, but it factors only what has actually happened. It doesn't take into account flyballs, and hard hit balls, and whatever else that goes into FIP and xFIP. Anytime I see someone use those metrics, all I can think about is when the Super Bowl or some other big game is simulated by ESPN or whomever, and whatever the outcome of that simulation is then that is what is supposed to happen.

Don't get me wrong, those metrics are cool and have meaning, but I don't think they should be considered law like SOME fanbases think

Yeah I'm a Fangraphs junkie and love their stuff but even they would tell you no one thing is law. It's a culmination

When it comes to stats like ERA and why some prefer FIP and/or xFIP, it's really about attempting to isolate the pitcher's value by factoring out things they don't control...and we're basically talking about fielding, park, etc, right?

So it just depends on the point you are try to convey. If the point is purely results based, you could take wins and ERA. If you're trying to extract two guys out of their specific situations and working to compile a good fair comparison between the two, some of these metrics can help.

IMO anyway.
Wow, that is all some really complicated stuff. I can see the value of it and find it really interesting, but bottom line is, "upsets" and unpredictable things happen all the time. I was reading in the Trash Talk forum and all they were talking about was advanced metrics and I thought that was a dumb argument. But it is really interesting to dive deeper into the mainstream statistics. Thanks for the info!
The sabermetric stats are only complicated in the actual calculation of them. If you just focus on the conceptual idea behind most all of them, they are basic. They are designed to better measure production and/or predict future production, than many basic stats would. And often times, they match up to what your eyes are telling you anyway when you watch a lot of games.

Think of a Martin Perez start where he's letting 2 guys get on base every inning via hit or walk, but he gets a few double play balls and a few fly ball outs to the fence that keep the damage to a single run. At the end of his outing his basic stat line says he went 6 innings and gave up 1 ER. Oh nice, Great outing by Perez! But was it really? Or did he pitch okay, but got results that made him look better than he actually performed? Advanced stats help you look at that game and go, yeah, he survived this one, but if he pitches like that regularly, he's going to have some pretty bad games when those groundballs with guys on base find a whole instead of going straight to Elvis and those flyballs that were caught at the track carry 10 feet further. That is all you need to really know about how advanced stats are intended. Of course actual results are what matters in the moment. But if you're a GM who is trying to decide who to sign or anyone who wants to just be able to predict future performance a little bit better, these stats can be helpful.
DannyDuberstein
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Agree that he's probably an odd man out here. By write off, I mainly just meant assuming he's not going to make it as a MLB player and dumping him in a trade for peanuts. I think he can reestablish some value at AAA because of what I outlined. Not the value he had when he was 22 years old, but more than trying to dump him as some part time spare part on the MLB club. I think it would be great for him to stay in AAA until September.
aggietony2010
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Stats are great, they provide a useful tool for making comparisons that don't get made on the field, and are useful for making decisions and predictions about the future.

That's it. Last year, some of the Astros fans would point to their metrics to say they were the better team.

Valid point at the end of 2016: Texas played out of their minds, but advanced stats suggest they'll perform worst next year.
Not valid: Advanced stats prove Houston was a better team than Texas in 2016.
mhayden
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The only people who care about who was the better "team" is the fans of the team that went home early.
Baby Billy
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jtstanley4621 said:

I don't think his career story is written yet, but I just don't really see where he fits on the Rangers going forward. I don't think he really wants to play outfield long-term, and it would seem like Elvis and Odor are sitting in the spots Profar most projects to for most of the foreseeable future. The only infield spot where I feel like he would make sense would be 3B, and Gallo seems to be the future at that position.
I honestly think Gallo is the future at 1B
DannyDuberstein
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Choo's back is barking. I'm expecting a DL stay soon. Either way, I think you just evaluate a Deshields LF-Choo DH vs. Choo LF-Nap DH combo.
DallasAg 94
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Beltre signed an extension through 2018. He is in the Top 3 of almost every offensive category for 3B while playing that position.

This was from 2015...

Quote:

All-time GP at 3B
1. Brooks Robinson (23 years) - 2870
2. *Adrian Beltre (18 years \ age 36) - 2443
3. Graig Nettles (22 years) - 2412
Aramis Ramirez (15years \ age 37) - 2082

My guess is, if he reaches Robinson, it won't be with the Rangers?!

With 385 HRs, he is 4th among 3Bers:
1. Mike Schmidt (509)
2. Eddie Mathews (486)
3. Chipper Jones (389)
4. *Adrian Beltre (385)
5. *Aramis Ramirez (376)
I took the stats for reference and updated. He should eclipse Jones soon.

For Doubles:
Boggs (536)
*Beltre (531)
*Ramirez (481)
He should pass Boggs very soon.

RBI:
Schmidt (1474)
*Ramirez (1369)
*Beltre (1361)
Some quick updates:

All-time GP at 3B
1. Brooks Robinson (23 years) - 2870
2. *Adrian Beltre (18 years \ age 36) - 2598 (272 behind)

HRs:
1. Mike Schmidt (509)
2. Eddie Mathews (486)
3. *Adrian Beltre (420) - 89 behind Schmidt

For Doubles:
1. Beltre (574)

RBI:
1. Beltre (1502)

Beltre has a chance to have played 3B more games than anyone else... I doubt he gets bumped from that position if he can play. It may take beyond 2018, and he will take a walker out there if necessary.
corleoneAg99
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DallasAg 94 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

AccidentProne said:

rwhitlock3 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Yeah I'm a Fangraphs junkie and love their stuff but even they would tell you no one thing is law. It's a culmination



For pitching, anything outside of ERA\WHIP and maybe k/9IP... every other stat is worthless. Eyeballs are all you need.

For hitting, anything outside BA, HR, SB & OBP... you don't need anything other than eyeballs.

There. I said it!

1991 called and wants their opinion back.

But to each their own.

As I said, it depends on what you're trying to evaluate.
DallasAg 94
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Not sure if it has been mentioned, but Profar has been playing SS for Round Rock.

I think that is a pretty good indication they are going to trade him, no?! At 24, he needs regular ABs and I think his stock will continue to rise. Batting .289 in 12 GP.

OF:
Mazara: .250, 5 HR, 2 SB, .313 OBP
Gomez: .246, 4 HR, 5 SB, .331 OBP
Choooo: .244, 4 HR, 3 SB, .362 OBP
DeShields: .256, 1 HR, 7 SB, .322 OBP

You've got Rua and then you can shuffle guys from AAA, like Hoying finding his inner-personal Bonds: .242, 7 HR, 3 SB.

Like the SP... you have a number of players to function... but it can thin quickly.
Mr Gigem
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Y'all have any suggestions to my improve series previews? I'm dropping one tonight
Lt. Joe Bookman
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Boobs
MooreTrucker
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Which really should go without saying....
gigem1223
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Gomez out 4-6 weeks per ESPN
DallasAg 94
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corleoneAg99 said:


1991 called and wants their opinion back.

But to each their own.

As I said, it depends on what you're trying to evaluate.

Billy Beane called... he wants another 5th place finish in the division. Nobody trades MLB SPs for minor leaguers like he can...


I'm actually warm to a few of stats, I just think people put too much stock in them.
Mr Gigem
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For Immediate Release
Monday, May 15, 2017

UPDATE ON RANGERS OUTFIELDER CARLOS GOMEZ

Texas Rangers outfielder Carlos Gomez underwent an MRI and further examination by Dr. Keith Meister on Monday. The test confirmed that Gomez has a right hamstring strain and he is expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks.

Gomez will be placed on the 10-day disabled list on Tuesday and at that time, the Rangers will make a corresponding move to replace him on the active roster.

Gomez sustained the injury while running the bases and scoring from second base in the seventh inning on Sunday versus Oakland. He is batting .246 with a team high 11 doubles, four home runs and 13 RBI in 38 games for Texas this season.
jtstanley4621
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Ah, that freaking sucks. I felt like Gomez was starting to play a little better too. DeShields is our guy in CF for however long now I would assume.
rwhitlock3
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gigem1223 said:

Gomez out 4-6 weeks per ESPN
That's a killer with how dynamic he has been in the field and on the basepaths of late. Does Profar get called back up now? OR do we call up Jared Hoying or Drew Robinson?
rwhitlock3
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Yeah, in those terms, I can absolutely see how those advanced metrics can be used to best help predict future success. And it lets you take a more "in-depth" view on how someone is really playing. It does frustrate me when Perez has to pitch in so many high leverage situations so often. I feel like it can tax pitchers a lot. Now, it seems there are stats to back that up and provide better analysis.
Squirrel Master
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rwhitlock3 said:

Yeah, in those terms, I can absolutely see how those advanced metrics can be used to best help predict future success. And it lets you take a more "in-depth" view on how someone is really playing. It does frustrate me when Perez has to pitch in so many high leverage situations so often. I feel like it can tax pitchers a lot. Now, it seems there are stats to back that up and provide better analysis.
Exactly. Or another great example is Choo. You look at Choo's baseball card stats (Avg/HR/RBIs), and you think yeah, he's a solid player. But Choo's whole game is built on getting on base however, working pitchers, and knowing the strike zone. Of course, if you watch Choo play all the time, you'll know he does all those things. But take some random Mets fan who never watches him play, Advanced stats can paint the image of Choo that he's a OBP machine who hits well, better than just looking at his batting average and how many HRs he has ever could.
DallasAg 94
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rwhitlock3 said:

gigem1223 said:

Gomez out 4-6 weeks per ESPN
That's a killer with how dynamic he has been in the field and on the basepaths of late. Does Profar get called back up now? OR do we call up Jared Hoying or Drew Robinson?
Profar has been playing SS at AAA.
Drew Robinson has been playing 2B at AAA.

Hoying who has been playing CF at AAA, is not in the lineup tonight.

Puello is in CF, but has been playing LF.

Lipka is playing LF for AAA. Lipka made his Round Rock debut, tonight. He apparently was picked up by the Rangers from the Atl organization in the offseason.

My money is Hoying.
Mr Gigem
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Texas Rangers (19-20) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (14-21): Series Preview

Game 1: Jared Eickhoff (RHP, 0-3, 4.76 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (RHP, 3-2, 2.96 ERA)
Game 2: Zach Eflin (RHP, 0-0, 2.81 ERA) vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP, 0-3, 2.43 ERA)
Game 3: Nick Pivetta (RHP 0-2, 6.14 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (RHP, 1-5, 3.89 ERA)


Scouting the Phillies

The Phillies have lost 12 of their 15 games to fall nine games back of the NL East leading Washington Nationals, and 5.5 games out of the Wildcard. The one bright spot on the Phillies has been Aaron Altherr. Drafted in 2009, the German-born Altherr has batted under .200 every year up until this season, where he is batting .333 with 8 homeruns and an OPS 1.149. Look for Altherr to potentially be a thorn in the Rangers side over the next three days. Another player on the upswing is Tommy Joseph, who is batting .413 over his last 10 games and has hit 4 homeruns this month.

The pitching staff has been less than stellar through 35 games for the Phillies. They rank 27th in team ERA, 27th in BAA, 28th in SO, and 28th in quality starts. Yikes. If the Rangers bullpen was considered a dumpster fire at one point (is it still?), then what does that make the Phillies'? I'm still searching for something positive to stay about the Phillies pitching staff.

Scouting the Rangers

The Rangers have won a season-high six games in a row, which is the longest active streak in the MLB. They've climbed out of the depths and back into 2nd place. The bad news? Carlos Gomez is out 4-6 weeks with a hamstring strain. Gomez is batting .246 and is leading the team with 11 doubles. Jared Hoying will likely be his replacement. In 36 games for AAA Round Rock, Hoying is batting .242 with 7 home runs, 23 RBI, and an OPS of .812.

Players to Watch

Yu Darvish is 2-0 over his last 4 starts with a sub-3 ERA. Darvish has four straight quality starts and six overall on the season. The right hander will look to get more run support then usual from his offense in securing another win.

Nomar Mazara is batting .368 over his last 5 games. After starting the season hot, and then going on a cold streak, Maz has at least one hit in his last four games and seems to be turning it around.

Speaking of turning it around, Jonathan Lucroy has been hot lately, batting .533 over his last 4 games with multiple hits in 3 out 4.

The Rangers have been boom or bust with the long ball this season, and I'd expect them to continue that against the Phillies, who have given up an NL-worst 57 home runs.

AccidentProne's Six Shooter

1 Number of games under .500. If the Rangers secure a victory tonight, it will mark the first time this season that they have not had a losing a record.

2 Rangers rank #2 in the MLB in quality starts. Not bad for a starting rotation that includes an inconsistent Martin Perez, a pitcher coming back from injury in Andrew Cashner, and fly ball extraordinaire AJ Griffin.

3 Consecutive games in which the Rangers have struck out less than 5 times. Strike outs have been a black eye for the club so far this season, so maybe the last 3 games are signaling a change in the tide? Did Iapoce finally start doing his job?

4 Number of walkoff victories this season. The Rangers love late inning drama, and I'm sure that Globe Life partnership is cashing out with the number of heart attacks the Rangers have caused, both with the walkoffs and late inning collapses.

5 Number of consecutive come-from-behind victories. FIVE. In a row. I'm starting to sense a theme with the drama.

6 Consecutive victories for the Rangers. They'll look to continue that trend against an unraveling Phillies team
Baby Billy
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Maybe these two should worry more about getting outs

https://instagr.am/p/BUH8GfwB_qf

DeangeloVickers
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MSFC Aggie
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Quote:

3 Consecutive games in which the Rangers have struck out less than 5 times. Strike outs have been a black eye for the club so far this season, so maybe the last 3 games are signaling a change in the tide? Did Iapoce finally start doing his job?
So I was curious to where the Rangers stand in MLB in SOs. Here are the top 10:

Tampa Bay 425
Milwaukee 367
Arizona 361
San Diego 359
Colorado 343
Texas 335
Cubs 331
Oakland 324
Yankees 320
Toronto/Dodgers 319

I few things stuck out......was surprised to not see the Rangers in the top 2 or 3.....and good grief Tampa....425?!?!? Ironically, Tampa also leads MLB in walks.
We fixed the keg
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MSFC Aggie said:

Quote:

3 Consecutive games in which the Rangers have struck out less than 5 times. Strike outs have been a black eye for the club so far this season, so maybe the last 3 games are signaling a change in the tide? Did Iapoce finally start doing his job?
So I was curious to where the Rangers stand in MLB in SOs. Here are the top 10:

Tampa Bay 425
Milwaukee 367
Arizona 361
San Diego 359
Colorado 343
Texas 335
Cubs 331
Oakland 324
Yankees 320
Toronto/Dodgers 319

I few things stuck out......was surprised to not see the Rangers in the top 2 or 3.....and good grief Tampa....425?!?!? Ironically, Tampa also leads MLB in walks.

425.....ROFL. They are 19-22 so 41 games? 10+ K's per game average.
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