Who is your team's next HOFer?

4,882 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by YokelRidesAgain
PacifistAg
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For the Rangers, it's clearly Beltre.

Will likely retire w/ following rankings among 3B:
2nd - WAR (6.2 behind current 2nd place - Eddie Matthews)
1st - Games (176 behind current 1st place - Brooks Robinson)
2nd - Hits (212 behind current 2nd place - George Brett)
2nd - Doubles (14 behind current 2nd place - Paul Molitor)
3rd - HR (23 behind current 3rd place - Chipper Jones)
1st - RBI (52 behind current 1st place - Chipper Jones)
3rd - JAWS (3.7 behind current 3rd place - Wade Boggs)

Will likely finish w/ over 3,100 career hits, needs 55 HR to reach 500, and over 1,700 RBI. And of course, there's the elite defense and, as we see w/ Schilling and Sheffield, it certainly doesn't hurt to be well liked by media.
Mathguy64
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Lance Berkman has a shot if the writers actually do their job. Problem is the writers provide yearly evidence that they are functional idiots.

Fat Elvis posted an OPS+ of 150 or higher 6 times with 5 times over 160. Silly good hitter. If he played in NY or BOS he'd be a 1st or 2nd ballot guy. He played in Houston, so he's marginal and wont get 25% of a vote ever.
corleoneAg99
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Mussina although he was with the O's 10 years, yanks for 8. Not sure if he'd go in as an Oriole or not. 82.2 career WAR. 270 wins. 2800 K's. 3.68 career ERA and xFIP.


He should get in IMO.

Current O's? Pretty much just Machado, I guess. 5 years in he's at 23 WAR, including 3 6 WAR seasons, and has a 284 career AVG. and 105 bombs.

He projects pretty well, I'd say...especially considering his excellent defense.

PacifistAg
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Your Machado note made me curious about Trout. Guy already has a WAR of 48.5, 2 MVP awards, and 5 top-2 MVP finishes. He's led the AL in WAR every season he's been in the bigs. Just unreal.
W
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probably Altuve for the Astros.

he's well on his way with 2 batting titles and 4 all-star games already at age 26. Plus 3 silver sluggers and 1 gold glove. And of course 1,046 hits.

a 3rd batting title would just about make him a lock...even if he comes up short of 3,000 hits
PatAg
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W said:

probably Altuve for the Astros.

he's well on his way with 2 batting titles and 4 all-star games already at age 26. Plus 3 silver sluggers and 1 gold glove. And of course 1,046 hits.

a 3rd batting title would just about make him a lock...even if he comes up short of 3,000 hits
Gonna need to perform at this level for at least 4 more years to be a "lock".

Though that is pretty likely.
W
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the list of players post-WWII...not in the Hall of Fame who have won 3 batting titles...(and did not play at Coors Field and were not serial 'roiders) is very small.

a third batting title would be very important
corleoneAg99
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RetiredAg said:

Your Machado note made me curious about Trout. Guy already has a WAR of 48.5, 2 MVP awards, and 5 top-2 MVP finishes. He's led the AL in WAR every season he's been in the bigs. Just unreal.


Agree...basically they should just rename the MVP Award the Trout Award and give it to him for the next decade or so. Being stuck on a bad LAA squad all the while.
BMX Bandit
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Love Berkman


But not hall of fame worthy.

Answer is Altuve.
ORAggieFan
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Hopefully Edgar then I'd guess Ichiro.
PacifistAg
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BMX Bandit said:

Love Berkman


But not hall of fame worthy.

Answer is Altuve.
Agree. Berkman is classic Hall of Very Good. I imagine he may hang around the ballot till his 10 years are up, but will probably have a voting profile similar to McGriff, IMO.
TXAggie2011
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Quote:

Lance Berkman has a shot if the writers actually do their job. Problem is the writers provide yearly evidence that they are functional idiots.

Fat Elvis posted an OPS+ of 150 or higher 6 times with 5 times over 160. Silly good hitter. If he played in NY or BOS he'd be a 1st or 2nd ballot guy. He played in Houston, so he's marginal and wont get 25% of a vote ever.
The problem Berkman may face is not not spending enough time with the Yankees or Red Sox, its that he put up great stats in an era when a lot of guys put up historically great stats.

Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker...and you can keep going...
Say Chowdah
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Roger Clemens and/or Manny Ramirez.

If those two don't make it, David Ortiz.
Ag_07
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I assume we're talking player to wear your team's cap.

If you're talking current player to go in Beltran will make it before Altuve.
PacifistAg
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Carlos Beltran will be interesting with regards to what hat he wears. I imagine it would be the Mets. Played 7 years with both KC and NYM, but has better numbers with Mets.
Ag13
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RetiredAg said:

Carlos Beltran will be interesting with regards to what hat he wears. I imagine it would be the Mets. Played 7 years with both KC and NYM, but has better numbers with Mets.


If he wins the World Series with the Astros that will be his career defining moment. Wishful thinking on many fronts.
Mr.Ackar07
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TXAggie2011 said:


Quote:

Lance Berkman has a shot if the writers actually do their job. Problem is the writers provide yearly evidence that they are functional idiots.

Fat Elvis posted an OPS+ of 150 or higher 6 times with 5 times over 160. Silly good hitter. If he played in NY or BOS he'd be a 1st or 2nd ballot guy. He played in Houston, so he's marginal and wont get 25% of a vote ever.
The problem Berkman may face is not not spending enough time with the Yankees or Red Sox, its that he put up great stats in an era when a lot of guys put up historically great stats.

Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker...and you can keep going...
The other problem for Berkman is 1,905 career hits. That would put him 126th among all Hall of Famers, and he would have the lowest total hits since Phil Rizzuto (ignoring the Negro League stars that only played in the MLB for a short while) who ended his career in 1956.
Mr.Ackar07
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I could see Berkman get 2-3% of the vote his first year on the ballot and then fall off. He will enter when there will still be 15 or so players with a decent chance on the ballot, so if voters rank their picks, I see him ending up short most of the time.
mazag08
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Altuve
DallasAg 94
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RetiredAg said:

For the Rangers, it's clearly Beltre.

Will likely retire w/ following rankings among 3B:
2nd - WAR (6.2 behind current 2nd place - Eddie Matthews)
1st - Games (176 behind current 1st place - Brooks Robinson)
2nd - Hits (212 behind current 2nd place - George Brett)
2nd - Doubles (14 behind current 2nd place - Paul Molitor)
3rd - HR (23 behind current 3rd place - Chipper Jones)
1st - RBI (52 behind current 1st place - Chipper Jones)
3rd - JAWS (3.7 behind current 3rd place - Wade Boggs)

Will likely finish w/ over 3,100 career hits, needs 55 HR to reach 500, and over 1,700 RBI. And of course, there's the elite defense and, as we see w/ Schilling and Sheffield, it certainly doesn't hurt to be well liked by media.
RetiredAg - The numbers are actually even more favorable for Beltre

Molitor didn't play all his games as a 3B. I've tracked many of those numbers based on GP at that position.

For example, Doubles.
Beltre: 2598 GP, 574 Doubles
Molitor: 788 GP, 155 Doubles

Molitor had 100 Doubles as a 2B and 285 as a DH.

Boggs is 2nd, behind Beltre. Boggs has 536 in 2197 GP at 3B.

I have a post in 2016, with more current numbers (not final season numbes), but can't find it on TexAgs.

This from 2015, should give you whom Beltre is either trying to catch or has passed.

Beltre's 420 HRs is 3rd behind Schmidt (509) and Eddie Mathews (486).

GP:
Brooks Robinson (23 years, 2870 GP)
Beltre (19 years, 2598 GP) - Beltre needs 272 GP. That is why the Rangers signed him through 2018.

Whether he goes in as a Ranger or other?!

G w/LAD: 966
G w/Tex: 885 (Needs 81)
G w/Sea: 715
G w/Bos: 154
PacifistAg
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Mr.Ackar07 said:

TXAggie2011 said:


Quote:

Lance Berkman has a shot if the writers actually do their job. Problem is the writers provide yearly evidence that they are functional idiots.

Fat Elvis posted an OPS+ of 150 or higher 6 times with 5 times over 160. Silly good hitter. If he played in NY or BOS he'd be a 1st or 2nd ballot guy. He played in Houston, so he's marginal and wont get 25% of a vote ever.
The problem Berkman may face is not not spending enough time with the Yankees or Red Sox, its that he put up great stats in an era when a lot of guys put up historically great stats.

Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker...and you can keep going...
The other problem for Berkman is 1,905 career hits. That would put him 126th among all Hall of Famers, and he would have the lowest total hits since Phil Rizzuto (ignoring the Negro League stars that only played in the MLB for a short while) who ended his career in 1956.
Yeah, looking at Berkman's resume, I just don't see him as a HOFer. Didn't reach any of the major milestones, which alone isn't a disqualifier, but he didn't even reach 400 hr or 2,000 hits. He doesn't have elite defense to fall back on either. He had a great career, but I just don't see how it's HOF worthy. I know some of the advanced metrics are kinder to Berkman though.

Take Jim Edmonds as a comparison. Similar offensive numbers, but he was an elite defensive player, and he fell off after the 1st ballot.
PacifistAg
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DallasAg 94 said:

RetiredAg said:

For the Rangers, it's clearly Beltre.

Will likely retire w/ following rankings among 3B:
2nd - WAR (6.2 behind current 2nd place - Eddie Matthews)
1st - Games (176 behind current 1st place - Brooks Robinson)
2nd - Hits (212 behind current 2nd place - George Brett)
2nd - Doubles (14 behind current 2nd place - Paul Molitor)
3rd - HR (23 behind current 3rd place - Chipper Jones)
1st - RBI (52 behind current 1st place - Chipper Jones)
3rd - JAWS (3.7 behind current 3rd place - Wade Boggs)

Will likely finish w/ over 3,100 career hits, needs 55 HR to reach 500, and over 1,700 RBI. And of course, there's the elite defense and, as we see w/ Schilling and Sheffield, it certainly doesn't hurt to be well liked by media.
RetiredAg - The numbers are actually even more favorable for Beltre

Molitor didn't play all his games as a 3B. I've tracked many of those numbers based on GP at that position.

For example, Doubles.
Beltre: 2598 GP, 574 Doubles
Molitor: 788 GP, 155 Doubles

Molitor had 100 Doubles as a 2B and 285 as a DH.

Boggs is 2nd, behind Beltre. Boggs has 536 in 2197 GP at 3B.

I have a post in 2016, with more current numbers (not final season numbes), but can't find it on TexAgs.

This from 2015, should give you whom Beltre is either trying to catch or has passed.

Beltre's 420 HRs is 3rd behind Schmidt (509) and Eddie Mathews (486).

GP:
Brooks Robinson (23 years, 2870 GP)
Beltre (19 years, 2598 GP) - Beltre needs 272 GP. That is why the Rangers signed him through 2018.

Whether he goes in as a Ranger or other?!

G w/LAD: 966
G w/Tex: 885 (Needs 81)
G w/Sea: 715
G w/Bos: 154

Yeah, I couldn't find a way to do it by games played at 3B, which would put him above guys like Molitor. I was using the Baseball Reference JAWS ranking page and they included guys like that. Thanks for the update.

I think he retires as a top-3 3B all-time. It's hard to say because you have guys like Robinson, Schmidt and Brett in there, but it's hard to ignore Beltre's numbers. And I think he goes in as a Ranger. Of course I'm biased, but this is where he went from Hall of Very Good to 1st ballot HOF.
Ag_07
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Does the fact that Berkman was a switch hitter help him at all?

I thought I remember him being ranked pretty high in a handful of all-time offensive categories as far as switch hitters were concerned.

jja79
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Stack him up against Eddie Murray, Larry Wayne Jones and Mickey Mantle. No.

DallasAg 94
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RetiredAg said:

DallasAg 94 said:

RetiredAg said:

For the Rangers, it's clearly Beltre.

Will likely retire w/ following rankings among 3B:
2nd - WAR (6.2 behind current 2nd place - Eddie Matthews)
1st - Games (176 behind current 1st place - Brooks Robinson)
2nd - Hits (212 behind current 2nd place - George Brett)
2nd - Doubles (14 behind current 2nd place - Paul Molitor)
3rd - HR (23 behind current 3rd place - Chipper Jones)
1st - RBI (52 behind current 1st place - Chipper Jones)
3rd - JAWS (3.7 behind current 3rd place - Wade Boggs)

Will likely finish w/ over 3,100 career hits, needs 55 HR to reach 500, and over 1,700 RBI. And of course, there's the elite defense and, as we see w/ Schilling and Sheffield, it certainly doesn't hurt to be well liked by media.
RetiredAg - The numbers are actually even more favorable for Beltre

Molitor didn't play all his games as a 3B. I've tracked many of those numbers based on GP at that position.

For example, Doubles.
Beltre: 2598 GP, 574 Doubles
Molitor: 788 GP, 155 Doubles

Molitor had 100 Doubles as a 2B and 285 as a DH.

Boggs is 2nd, behind Beltre. Boggs has 536 in 2197 GP at 3B.

I have a post in 2016, with more current numbers (not final season numbes), but can't find it on TexAgs.

This from 2015, should give you whom Beltre is either trying to catch or has passed.

Beltre's 420 HRs is 3rd behind Schmidt (509) and Eddie Mathews (486).

GP:
Brooks Robinson (23 years, 2870 GP)
Beltre (19 years, 2598 GP) - Beltre needs 272 GP. That is why the Rangers signed him through 2018.

Whether he goes in as a Ranger or other?!

G w/LAD: 966
G w/Tex: 885 (Needs 81)
G w/Sea: 715
G w/Bos: 154

Yeah, I couldn't find a way to do it by games played at 3B, which would put him above guys like Molitor. I was using the Baseball Reference JAWS ranking page and they included guys like that. Thanks for the update.

I think he retires as a top-3 3B all-time. It's hard to say because you have guys like Robinson, Schmidt and Brett in there, but it's hard to ignore Beltre's numbers. And I think he goes in as a Ranger. Of course I'm biased, but this is where he went from Hall of Very Good to 1st ballot HOF.
You have to use their "Splits" and then enumerate them individually. It is onerous, but once you start with the Top 10 GP accredited for 3Bers, it narrows quickly once you start looking at GP @ 3B.
Mathguy64
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jja79 said:

Stack him up against Eddie Murray, Larry Wayne Jones and Mickey Mantle. No.


Mantle is so far and away better than Jones, Murray or pretty much anyone else its not a fair comparison. Jones and Murray also have much longer careers so using cumulative stats is very misleading. Yes a large part of the HOF is about longevity but that in itself doesnt make a player have worth. Hell Omar Vizquel has almost 2900 hits. But he played for 24 years. His career OPS+ is 82 and he often had years in the 60s, 50s and 40s. Thats brutally bad. You cannot possibly say that Vizquel was a good hitter because he accumulated 2900 hits.

If you take the best 6 or 7 years for each player (which is a decent barometer), you get a very different picture.

Mantle >>>>>>>>>> Jones, Berkman (almost same, Jones I think better but not by much)>>>>Murray

For Rangers fans, Adrian Beltre has had 1 season that matched anything in Berkman's 6 year window. That was his famous contract window season with the Dodgers. Beltre's second and third best season match pretty closely across the range of all stats with Berkman's 7th and 8th best seasons. If you did a blind A/B comparison you wouldnt be able to tell them apart.

Fat Elvis wont make the HOF because of longevity. Beltre will because of it.
PacifistAg
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Quote:

Fat Elvis wont make the HOF because of longevity. Beltre will because of it.
I think this is a tad too simplistic, as it doesn't factor things like defensive abilities, position played (3B is far more demanding), ballparks played in, etc. It's problematic comparing an OF w/ a 3B.

Looking at Baseball Reference Similarity Scores (* = HOFer):

Berkman:
[ol]
  • Jim Edmonds (910)
  • Dick Allen (903)
  • Brian Giles (895)
  • Moises Alou (894)
  • Ellis Burks (890)
  • Albert Belle (887)
  • Jack Clark (881)
  • Mark Teixeira (880)
  • Shawn Green (875)
  • Bob Johnson (875)
  • [/ol]
    Beltre:
    [ol]
  • Andre Dawson (877) *
  • Al Kaline (844) *
  • Carlos Beltran (842)
  • Harold Baines (829)
  • Chipper Jones (829)
  • Billy Williams (827) *
  • Luis Gonzalez (824)
  • Ernie Banks (820) *
  • Tony Perez (816) *
  • Dave Winfield (815) *
  • [/ol]
    Sure, Beltre got to the bigs at a younger age and will play till he's older, but to say that's the reason he'll make it but not Berkman is, IMO, incorrect.

    LeFraud
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    Berkman won't get in because he wasn't elite (amongst his peers) at any facet of the game.

    You can't say the same about Beltre.
    PacifistAg
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    LeFraud said:

    Berkman won't get in because he wasn't elite (amongst his peers) at any facet of the game.

    You can't say the same about Beltre.
    This. It's not taking away from Berkman or the career he had. He had a fantastic career. The fact that there are people who can make a compelling case for him is evidence of that. But, he did not have a HOF career. It's not like Sandy Koufax who had to retire at 30, but was a lock for the HOF because he was elite. If Clayton Kershaw retired after next season, he'd waltz into the Hall as well....because he was elite. If you're going to have a shorter career, you need to be the elite of the elite.
    W
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    Berkman's biggest fault is that he didn't take steroids & supplements.

    his career peaked from 2002 to 2008...at ages 25 thru 32.

    and then like a typical ballplayer he faded after that. Had a resurgence in 2011 with St. Louis, but his last 5 years (2009-2013) were not very good. Which is normal for 90% of ballplayers
    W
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    by the way Berkman was elite from 2001-2008.

    finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 4 times.

    Beltre is the guy who was never elite...just very healthy and consistent
    PacifistAg
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    Quote:

    Berkman's biggest fault is that he didn't take steroids & supplements.

    That you know of. If Andy Pettite taught us anything, it's that you cannot just assume a player was always clean.
    TXAggie2011
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    W said:

    by the way Berkman was elite from 2001-2008.

    finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 4 times.

    Beltre is the guy who was never elite...just very healthy and consistent
    Beltre has received more career MVP votes than Berkman; finished in the top 7 of voting 5 times (Berkman did that 6 times); and finishing in the top 3 of voting twice (the same amount as Berkman); and is the only one of the pair to finish 2nd in MVP voting.

    I believe you can not fairly say, based on MVP voting, that Berkman was elite and Beltre was not elite.
    PacifistAg
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    W said:

    by the way Berkman was elite from 2001-2008.

    finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 4 times.

    Beltre is the guy who was never elite...just very healthy and consistent
    Berkman was "elite", except in '03, '05 and '07. Those weren't bad seasons, heck, they were very good. I wouldn't call them elite though.

    Again, comparing an OF and a 3B seems to be fraught with problems. 3B is a physically demanding position, and he's rarely been healthy. What he does, and is widely known for, is play through injury like nobody I've seen before. Adrian Beltre is an elite 3B, as his career numbers compared against other 3B throughout history shows.
    Mathguy64
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    I'll throw this out there and then walk away.

    Some career and a couple window looks. Just a quick slash line comparison, because again cumulative stats are just that. Cumulative.

    Player A: .303/.401/.529 OPS+ 141
    Player B .308/.356/.516 OPS+ 132
    Player C .286/.338/.480 OPS+ 116
    Player D .296/.406/.549 OPS+ 146
    Player E .293/.406/.537 OPS+ 144

    Who is who? And who is elite? Yes I know its not the full story, but it is a decent start. And one of those is definitely not like the others.

    Player A is Chipper, his career slash line in 19 years
    Player B is Beltre in a 6 year window while in a Rangers jersey.
    Player C is Beltre, his career slash line in 19 years. Compare that to Jones.
    Player D is Berkman during his 12 years as an Astros
    Player E is Berkman, his career slash line in 15 years.
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