HOF Ballot Released

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PacifistAg
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1:44p, 11/21/16
AG
Here are the 34 players on the 2017 baseball Hall of Fame ballot

My predictions in bold. Who I think should get in in italics.

Jeff Bagwell
Ivan Rodriguez
Tim Raines
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Mussina
Vladimir Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Casey Blake
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Mike Cameron
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Derek Lee
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Renteria
Arthur Rhodes
Freddy Sanchez
Matt Stairs
Jason Varitek



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BobOliver2006
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4:07p, 11/21/16
AG
isn't Pudge under the steroid cloud too much?
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PacifistAg
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In reply to BobOliver2006 • 4:11p, 11/21/16
AG
BobOliver2006 said:
isn't Pudge under the steroid cloud too much?
Not mentioned in the Mitchell Report, as far as I'm aware. Also, his name has never really been one of those prominent names mentioned when the subject comes up. I think most think he did, but I don't think the "cloud" will prevent him from being inducted. Perhaps the cloud will be enough to keep him out on his first ballot though, but I think he makes it.
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BobOliver2006
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In reply to PacifistAg • 4:17p, 11/21/16
AG
Yeah i couldn't remember if he was in the Mitchell Report or if he was just mentioned by Canseco and/or ARod. I think he'll get the 1st ballot snub.
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mAgnoliAg
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4:23p, 11/21/16
PacifistAg
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In reply to BobOliver2006 • 4:29p, 11/21/16
AG
Quote:
I think he'll get the 1st ballot snub.
He's certainly deserving to be a lock for the 1st ballot, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did get snubbed this year.
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jkag89
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In reply to PacifistAg • 7:24p, 11/21/16
Who I would vote for if given a ballot -

Jeff Bagwell
Ivan Rodriguez
Tim Raines
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Mussina
Vladimir Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Casey Blake
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Mike Cameron
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Derek Lee
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Renteria
Arthur Rhodes
Freddy Sanchez
Matt Stairs
Jason Varitek
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astros4545
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10:36p, 11/21/16
AG
Pat Burrell and Matt Stairs should have a shot to get in this year or next
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LeFraud
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In reply to astros4545 • 10:47p, 11/21/16
astros4545 said:
Pat Burrell and Matt Stairs should have a shot to get in this year or next

They'll both get votes, that's how utterly stupid the system is.
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Mr. White
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7:22a, 11/22/16
I have A LOT of baseball cards of the players in the top half of that list. Ah, memories.
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Dallasag02
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7:38a, 11/22/16
AG
I didn't even realize that half these guys had retired. That tells you what I think about their Hall chances.
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W
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12:14p, 11/22/16
AG
I would vote for Bagwell, Raines, and Vlad.

-- Hoffman was bad when it counted the most -- in the playoffs. (same for Billy Wagner) Closer is the one position where postseason greatness is required.

-- Pudge...don't need positive tests...just look at his HR profile

-- Edgar Martinez...he'll probably get in after Ortiz does (DH)

-- Mike Mussina...his numbers are skewed by playing with the Orioles and Yankees. Twice he won 18 games with a 4+ ERA. Definite east coast bias if he gets in
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PacifistAg
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In reply to W • 1:14p, 11/22/16
AG
Quote:
-- Pudge...don't need positive tests...just look at his HR profile
By year (age):

1991 (19) - 3
1992 (20) - 8
1993 (21) - 10
1994 (22) - 16
1995 (23) - 12
1996 (24) - 19
1997 (25) - 20
1998 (26) - 21
1999 (27) - 35
2000 (28) - 27
2001 (29) - 25
2002 (30) - 19
2003 (31) - 16
2004 (32) - 19
2005 (33) - 14
2006 (34) - 13
2007 (35) - 11
2008 (36) - 7
2009 (37) - 10
2010 (38) - 4
2011 (39) - 2

Looking at his HR profile and I don't see what you are alluding to. He gradually increased his numbers from his age 19-26 seasons. Had his career high in his age 27 season. Then saw a gradual decrease in his numbers. Looks like a pretty standard arc to me, and shouldn't be surprising that a player has his peak season at his prime age. Aside from the 1999 season, he never hit over 27. Had 1 30+ season, 4 20+ seasons, 11 10+ seasons, and 5 single-digit seasons.

So, no positive tests. No mention in the Mitchell Report. Pretty standard HR profile with only 1 aberration that happened to be his age 27 season.
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94chem
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1:18p, 11/22/16
Pudge HR profile

Why, here's Pudge's HR profile right here! One season over 30! Burn him at the stake!

Maybe he used; maybe he didn't. Remember - he played for the Rangers when they were your second favorite team. It's okay to like him.
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94chem
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1:18p, 11/22/16
RA beat me to it...guess that's because he's retired
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iBrad
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1:20p, 11/22/16
AG
I couldn't care less about steroids or other PEDs when it comes to HOF voting. There's probably already a user in the HOF and there will be others elected because they managed to stay out of reports, books, etc. While many label PED users as cheaters, I think the playing field was more even than we'll ever know or want to believe.

At some point, the best players need to be in the HOF.
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mhayden
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1:28p, 11/22/16
There's really some people who still think Pudge isn't going to be a first ballot hall-of-famer?
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PacifistAg
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In reply to iBrad • 1:43p, 11/22/16
AG

Quote:
I couldn't care less about steroids or other PEDs when it comes to HOF voting.
Same here. I used to be the exact opposite, but I've completely flipped on it. This is a museum we're talking about. Pretending these guys didn't exist only cheapens the museum. Like it or not, the steroid era is part of baseball's history, and not to mention, Bonds and Clemens would have been HOFers even had they never touched the stuff. Want to put a note on their plaque? Fine. But these guys should be in.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 2:30p, 11/22/16
AG
Quote:
Pudge dropped a significant amount of weight once the steroid scandal started getting hot and heavy further validating Canseco's book. In it he said that he personally educated Rodriguez and other teammates about steroids and injected them many times while in Texas. Ivan showed up to Tigers' spring training that same year weighing 187lbs as opposed to 215 the season prior. If steroids don't make people better explain Rodriguez's 1999 MVP season with the Rangers. He batted .334, smacked 35 HRs, drove in 113 and stole 25 bases; all career highs. He never hit more than 19 HRs before 1996 and after 2004 and never stole more than 10 bases except for the 1999 season. When asked if he was on the list of 104, Rodriguez replied, "Only God knows." Bigger, faster, stronger indeed.
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PacifistAg
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:34p, 11/22/16
AG
aggie1906 said:
Pudge dropped a significant amount of weight once the steroid scandal started getting hot and heavy further validating Canseco's book. In it he said that he personally educated Rodriguez and other teammates about steroids and injected them many times while in Texas. Ivan showed up to Tigers' spring training that same year weighing 187lbs as opposed to 215 the season prior. If steroids don't make people better explain Rodriguez's 1999 MVP season with the Rangers. He batted .334, smacked 35 HRs, drove in 113 and stole 25 bases; all career highs.
I don't think Rangers fans are under the impression he didn't use them. Pointing to his stats as evidence, though, is not convincing at all.

Let's take a look at the stats cited in the above passage:
  • 1999 BA - He hit .332. Okay? This was in the middle of a 10 year stretch where he hit over .300 9 times. His BA increased gradually from his age 20 season through his age 28 season. Heck, .332 wasn't even his career high.
  • 1999 HR - Already addressed above. There's absolutely nothing abnormal about his HR profile.
  • 1999 RBI - Career high, which would be logical given this was his best year. It's not like 113 is some gaudy #.
  • 1999 SB - This is really the only number that sticks out tremendously


Quote:
He never hit more than 19 HRs before 1996 and after 2004 and never stole more than 10 bases except for the 1999 season. When asked if he was on the list of 104, Rodriguez replied, "Only God knows." Bigger, faster, stronger indeed.
So, you jump start by addressing his 1999 season, then say he never hit more than 19 prior to 1996. What did he do in 1997-1998? 20 and 21 respectively. His HR numbers were increasing on a normal trajectory that would typically be seen at those ages. As for the SB, he stole 10 in his age 36 season. Perhaps the guy wasn't a lead-footed catcher. Even taking out his 1999 season, he stole over 100 bases.

Not exactly a convincing statistical argument. Do I think he used them? Yep. Do I care when it comes to HOF vote? Absolutely not. He's a top 3 catcher all time. But let's not act like there's some mountainous statistical argument that he used steroids. His career numbers flow along a typical arc that one would expect to see. Gradual increases through his "prime" seasons. Gradual decreases after his "prime" seasons.
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Dallasag02
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4:35p, 11/22/16
AG
Gotta love Astros fans arguing passionately that Pudge is somehow dirty while cheering for Bagwell's induction.
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Farmer1906
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7:22p, 11/22/16
AG
I didn't make any argument about his numbers. I just shared part of an article discussing it. Clearly there were physical changes and another player claiming that he getting shot in the ass with roids.

I agree there was too much of a jump in #s overall.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to PacifistAg • 7:27p, 11/22/16
AG
RetiredAg said:

Jeff Bagwell
Ivan Rodriguez
Tim Raines - hall of very good, no dice
Barry Bonds - roids
Roger Clemens - roids
Mike Mussina
Vladimir Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez - right on the cusp for me. No position hurts him a lot.
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling - another right on the cusp. Could go either way.
Gary Sheffield
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa - roids
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Casey Blake
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Mike Cameron
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Derek Lee
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada
Manny Ramirez - roids
Edgar Renteria
Arthur Rhodes
Freddy Sanchez
Matt Stairs
Jason Varitek
Every one of the roids is plenty good to be in.
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94chem
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10:28p, 11/22/16
I honestly don't think I have ever heard of Casey Blake.
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94chem
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10:30p, 11/22/16
Go look up Tim Raines' stats and tell me that dude's not a hall of famer.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to 94chem • 10:49p, 11/22/16
AG
94chem said:

Go look up Tim Raines' stats and tell me that dude's not a hall of famer.
Long career and only got to 2600 hits.
Didn't reach 1000 RBIs.
Sub .300 Career Avg
One year every above .900 OPS
1571 Runs scored is fairly strong. That's like 50 more than Bagwell who played like 7 less seasons and most don't even have him in.
The only great selling point is the 808 SB which is good for 5th all time. While impressive as hell, not good enough IMO.
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94chem
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9:32a, 11/23/16
Tim Raines had 2605 hits and 1330 walks. His biggest flaw is that his career was the exact same years as Rickey Henderson.
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PacifistAg
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:05p, 11/23/16
AG
aggie1906 said:
94chem said:

Go look up Tim Raines' stats and tell me that dude's not a hall of famer.
Long career and only got to 2600 hits.
Didn't reach 1000 RBIs.
Sub .300 Career Avg
One year every above .900 OPS
1571 Runs scored is fairly strong. That's like 50 more than Bagwell who played like 7 less seasons and most don't even have him in.
The only great selling point is the 808 SB which is good for 5th all time. While impressive as hell, not good enough IMO.
I may be mistaken, but did you have Larry Walker as "in"? That's fine, but I'm not sure how you can justify Walker but not Raines.

Larry Walker
2160 career hits
383 HR
1311 RBI

Ellis Burks
2107 career hits
352 HR
1206 RBI

And that was with playing the bulk of his career in Colorado. To me, Walker is classic "Hall of Very Good". Just don't see him as a HOFer at all. He and Ellis Burks had pretty similar numbers, and nobody thinks Burks is a HOFer. Granted, Walker has higher BA and OPS numbers, but just seemed like an odd admission, at least when not putting Raines in.
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94chem
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4:14p, 11/23/16
Aggie1906 edited his reply to "only 2600 hits" from "only 2200 hits" when I corrected him.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to 94chem • 4:58p, 11/23/16
AG
94chem said:
Aggie1906 edited his reply to "only 2600 hits" from "only 2200 hits" when I corrected him.


And?

You seem pretty upset I don't agree with you.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to PacifistAg • 5:00p, 11/23/16
AG
RetiredAg said:
aggie1906 said:
94chem said:

Go look up Tim Raines' stats and tell me that dude's not a hall of famer.
Long career and only got to 2600 hits.
Didn't reach 1000 RBIs.
Sub .300 Career Avg
One year every above .900 OPS
1571 Runs scored is fairly strong. That's like 50 more than Bagwell who played like 7 less seasons and most don't even have him in.
The only great selling point is the 808 SB which is good for 5th all time. While impressive as hell, not good enough IMO.
I may be mistaken, but did you have Larry Walker as "in"? That's fine, but I'm not sure how you can justify Walker but not Raines.

Larry Walker
2160 career hits
383 HR
1311 RBI

Ellis Burks
2107 career hits
352 HR
1206 RBI

And that was with playing the bulk of his career in Colorado. To me, Walker is classic "Hall of Very Good". Just don't see him as a HOFer at all. He and Ellis Burks had pretty similar numbers, and nobody thinks Burks is a HOFer. Granted, Walker has higher BA and OPS numbers, but just seemed like an odd admission, at least when not putting Raines in.


Career wRC+ & WAR of 140 & 69 vs 125 & 45.
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LeFraud
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8:19p, 11/23/16
How do astro fans usually explain Biggio's homerun totals? 15, 15 and then BAM 24, 26, 21 in his late 30s? Was he just guessing better (trying to pull) or what?
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PacifistAg
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:48p, 11/23/16
AG
aggie1906 said:
RetiredAg said:
aggie1906 said:
94chem said:

Go look up Tim Raines' stats and tell me that dude's not a hall of famer.
Long career and only got to 2600 hits.
Didn't reach 1000 RBIs.
Sub .300 Career Avg
One year every above .900 OPS
1571 Runs scored is fairly strong. That's like 50 more than Bagwell who played like 7 less seasons and most don't even have him in.
The only great selling point is the 808 SB which is good for 5th all time. While impressive as hell, not good enough IMO.
I may be mistaken, but did you have Larry Walker as "in"? That's fine, but I'm not sure how you can justify Walker but not Raines.

Larry Walker
2160 career hits
383 HR
1311 RBI

Ellis Burks
2107 career hits
352 HR
1206 RBI

And that was with playing the bulk of his career in Colorado. To me, Walker is classic "Hall of Very Good". Just don't see him as a HOFer at all. He and Ellis Burks had pretty similar numbers, and nobody thinks Burks is a HOFer. Granted, Walker has higher BA and OPS numbers, but just seemed like an odd admission, at least when not putting Raines in.


Career wRC+ & WAR of 140 & 69 vs 125 & 45.

Yeah, I'm gonna assume most voters couldn't care less about wRC+,and probably care very little about WAR. They like milestones, and Larry Walker doesn't have a single one. This while playing the bulk of his career in the most hitter friendly park in baseball. He's Hall of Very Good. His major career stats are comparable to Ellis Burks. He's better than Burks, no doubt, but I can't see any statistical case Walker being in the Hall.
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PacifistAg
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In reply to LeFraud • 8:52p, 11/23/16
AG
LeFraud said:
How do astro fans usually explain Biggio's homerun totals? 15, 15 and then BAM 24, 26, 21 in his late 30s? Was he just guessing better (trying to pull) or what?

Great point. Biggios's HR profile is far more suspicious than Pudge's.
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jja79
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In reply to PacifistAg • 9:01p, 11/23/16
AG
When he was mid 30's they moved from a cavern to a stadium where pop ups to left are HR. You didn't think out your post very well.
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