****** 2026-2027 San Antonio Spurs Thread ******

20,245 Views | 424 Replies | Last: 1 min ago by Average Joe
TyHolden
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funny that ref wanted to get in with Wemby there lol...



stay low boys. keep those feet moving. go be perfect.

- chavez (fnl)
Average Joe
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Guitarsoup said:

With Fox playing good, the Spurs fan's punching bag du jour is Kornet, but he killed it last night.

Players are shooting just 40.6% within 6 feet of the rim when defended by Luke. They are at 63.5% when not defended by Luke. -22.9% is an insane defensive stat.

Within ten feet of the rim: -23.7%. Shooting just 35.1%.


Last night he had 8 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and a block with no turnovers or fouls. +17 for those that care about those things was 3rd on the team after Wemby and Castle.


Kornet is still good. I just think he's lost a step, and has trouble securing rebounds like he used to. Just watching him, he seems very clunky now.

I can't argue with the defensive numbers, but I'm wondering how much of that is respect for Kornet vs respect for a rookie. I only say that because Reed doesn't look terrible on defense, but I'll admit that I'm not a basketball coach.
Average Joe
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Guitarsoup said:



This guy is doing rotation trackers.


Massive improvement 3Q numbers year to year.
Backcountry Birds
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I'm really curious on the non-Wemby minutes. I have not dug into it, but it feels.like we are a + with almost any combination we have rolled out there with Wemby. It's a cheat code to have him anchoring the defense and scoring in the paint like he is doing.

While finding our most elite 5 is important. We really need to find a combo that can hold their own or put some extra space/pressure on the other team when Wemby is on the bench. What killed us last year in the end was giving up the big leads when Wemby was on the bench.
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Guitarsoup
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Guitarsoup
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Average Joe said:

Guitarsoup said:

With Fox playing good, the Spurs fan's punching bag du jour is Kornet, but he killed it last night.

Players are shooting just 40.6% within 6 feet of the rim when defended by Luke. They are at 63.5% when not defended by Luke. -22.9% is an insane defensive stat.

Within ten feet of the rim: -23.7%. Shooting just 35.1%.


Last night he had 8 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and a block with no turnovers or fouls. +17 for those that care about those things was 3rd on the team after Wemby and Castle.


Kornet is still good. I just think he's lost a step, and has trouble securing rebounds like he used to. Just watching him, he seems very clunky now.

I can't argue with the defensive numbers, but I'm wondering how much of that is respect for Kornet vs respect for a rookie. I only say that because Reed doesn't look terrible on defense, but I'll admit that I'm not a basketball coach.

Kornet's ORB% last year was 14.0% and this year is 12.4%. Slight drop off, but 12.4% is still very good. 12.4% is higher than everyone except Reed, who is ridiculously at 38%. Victor is just under 8%.

DRB% last year was 17% and is 19.2% this year.

Kornet, like everyone, had an awful first two games.

Before we got Kornet, he wasn't good at moving out on the perimeter and that kills us against certain teams (KAT obviously) and Reed should be better at that.

Reed's rim defense numbers have gotten better, but they are still +2.5% while Luke is at -22.9%. But Reed's are in garbage time with low numbers of minutes, so hard to take anything concrete either way from that. One good or bad game could swing it wildly due to sample size.

I think Q and Reed are firmly our future, but they aren't there yet and Kornet is still a very smart player that is performing well. Better than most fans think at least.
Guitarsoup
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Backcountry Birds said:

I'm really curious on the non-Wemby minutes. I have not dug into it, but it feels.like we are a + with almost any combination we have rolled out there with Wemby. It's a cheat code to have him anchoring the defense and scoring in the paint like he is doing.

While finding our most elite 5 is important. We really need to find a combo that can hold their own or put some extra space/pressure on the other team when Wemby is on the bench. What killed us last year in the end was giving up the big leads when Wemby was on the bench.

https://databallr.com/wowy?team=SAS&from=2027&to=2027

Databallr is the place to go. We are +18.6 with Wemby on and -9.5 with Wemby off. And I think that is some of where the Kornet hate comes from. Wemby is just such a dominant player that we inevitably fall off without him. That fall has been mostly hard and we need to optimize the rotation around that second team just holding serve as best as we can. Kornet+Castle+Harper has been +8 with great defense, but poor offense. Every other combination of the three PGs (one or two of them with Kornet) has been negative.

Harper, Castle, Julian, Kornet is +25, but only 29m total so far.
Guitarsoup
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More lineup data. No surprise, Spurs are better with Fox on.
Backcountry Birds
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Kornet can be a good defensive anchor with the second unit but you still need a consistent scoring punch in the second unit to reverse that +- trend. KJ gives you some of that but you need another creator.

If the starting 5 stays the most dominant in the NBA then maybe Tobias comes off the bench to be that reliable scorer.

I have been critical of Fox, due to his max salary and using him like the 2nd scoring option/shooting volume. I liked the idea of Fox coming off the bench to provide that scoring punch because I thought he wanted his volume shots but if he's fine getting the 5th most shot attempts a game and being a super efficient ball distributing PG and 3rd or 4th scorer then sign me up.

Maybe we run Kornet/Reed; Tobias, KJ/Champ/Bryant and one of the 3 guards. Really run the offense through Tobias heavy. That might be enough to fix the scoring problem and be serviceable defensively with the second big on the floor.
Guitarsoup
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I don't think Fox is going to be coming off the bench, especially with how positive Fox+Wemby has been this year.

I did think we would start Tobias and move Harper back, but I think we might roll with it as is.

But we will continue to always have two of Fox/Castle/Harper on the court, maybe some Devin instead of one of them if we are going big.

Fox was overpaid from the minute we inked that extension, but not as massively or grossly as most fans think, and it won't be as hard to get off it as many fans think. That was part of the deal with getting him cheap.

Remember the trade was so cheap for a top 15 scorer and former All-NBA player in his prime.

Salary dump Zach Collins, trade Tre Jones and Sidy Cissoko.
Bulls 1st (ended up being 11th and they took Noa Essengue, who has been bad in the 8 total games he has played.)
Charlotte 1st that was a fake first (lottery protected, 2nd rounder that became Reynaud.)
2027 Spurs 1st - going to be super late
2031 Wolves First. MIGHT be good, but it is super far away.
Several other 2nds.

Right after the Fox trade, Memphis traded Bane, who is worse than Fox, for four unprotected picks and an unprotected pick swap. First two picks that converted were 16th (Handsome Yang and Bennett Stirtz.)

Rich Paul delivered Fox cheaply, but part of dancing with the devil is we had to overpay him, but before our other contracts hit, so we are still flexible and it doesn't kill us.

I don't think we run the offense through Tobias, but we will have some possessions where we use him to post up opposite of Kornet. I think we will see some PnR will Luke rolling but Tobias going to the top of the arc to pop for three. The offense will still run through the three guards though.

And speaking of those trades, we still have the Hawks pick. How about a 6'9 230lb French PF who shoots the three you have never heard of?

duck79
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Are we expecting anything from Q in the second half or is this year a definite redshirt year?
Guitarsoup
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duck79 said:

Are we expecting anything from Q in the second half or is this year a definite redshirt year?


Absolutely not a single not of useful info from the Spurs. I'm hoping he gets back in Jan or Feb.
Backcountry Birds
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I just hope we have Tobias back by January or February at this rate!
Guitarsoup
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For those that follow the draft, kind of interesting to see who had options declined from that Castle draft.


Salaun was a guy a lot of us were interested in and some think Charlotte took him 6th because they thought we would take him 8th. He has the right body and athleticism, but kind of like Carter Bryant so far, hustling your ass off and being athletic isn't enough. I would still give him a min deal next year.

Dillingham was obviously our 8th pick that we traded to Minn for a pick and a swap and used that pick on Fox.

Lots of fans wanted Topic, sadly he has dealt with injuries and cancer. Looked promising when he played, better than I expected. I was low on him in the draft. He will get picked up somewhere.

Devin Carter was someone the Spurs supposedly had interest in, and they had him in several times for workouts. He's been straight ass in the league. Hawks waived him earlier this year and he is on a TWo-Way in Boston.

Cody Williams is the younger brother of Jalen Williams of OKC. He'd had good looking numbers in college, but has been ass in the league.

Denver traded three seconds to move from 28 to 22 to get Holmes to be Joker's backup and he's been as effective as me. That 28th pick was Ryan Dunn, who is a fantastic defender. PHx traded one second for Oso Ighodaro, who has been a decent rotation piece.

Collier is a little interesting after he averaged 12/7 last year and had a small number under 5M.

Guitarsoup
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Average Joe
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I love that I get to watch them every other night, but are we going to have legs left by Christmas?
Guitarsoup
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That's wild. 76ers didn't even do this to Simmons when he was on a max
Guitarsoup
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Average Joe said:

I love that I get to watch them every other night, but are we going to have legs left by Christmas?


I think we have a lot of soft teams that will give us some rest.
Backcountry Birds
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Love that schedule! Great distraction from Aggie football.

I think it's also a great opportunity to find out where Tobias fits, while getting Bryant and Reed some extended run. That should allow a few rest days or at least lighter minutes.

With the Thunder likely not running away with the Conference (I think rockets will come come down to earth or get injured). I think the Spurs should go deeper into their bench earlier in the season than they could last year even if it means a couple extra losses.

I think the Spurs are a legit 11-12 deep all of which could see some important playoff run. Wemby, Fox, Vassell, Castle, Harper, Champ, KJ, Kornet, Harris, Bryant, Reed, Barnes

Really work on finding a productive second unit this month, get the young pups some run, while the core rests a bit more.
Guitarsoup
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Unless major changes happen, I think our playoff rotation is not close to 11.

Big: Wemby/Kornet

Wing: Tobias, Devin, Julian

Guard: Fox Harper, Castle

That's a big improvement over last year, but I don't think Carter, Keldon or Reed are going to be major factors in the playoffs of the rest of the team is healthy. Keldon will be great for chewing up regular season minutes, but I don't think we count on him in the playoffs
Backcountry Birds
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I would consider Bryant in the playoff rotation last year, and KJ definitely was. That's 10 if those two play. I would think Reed would get some chances especially with how Kornet struggled the last two series last year and being a year older.

It is possible they trim it to 8 but that means pretty drastic minute regressions from last year for KJ and means Bryant and Reed likely did not develop or fit as intended.

Will any of those 3 even be on the team next year if they can't crack playoff rotation at least situationally this year?

I would spend the next month working to find a bench rotation that makes it a strength compared to almost every other team. It seems like on paper it should be one of our biggest advantages outside of Wemby and our slashers.
Guitarsoup
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Backcountry Birds said:

I would consider Bryant in the playoff rotation last year, and KJ definitely was.

Bryant played fewer than 9mpg in the playoffs, most of that was in blowouts, and he got DNP-CDs. I don't consider him part of the rotation then and he certainly isn't right now.

KJ was, but his minutes will likely drop when Tobias comes back. He dropped from 23 to under 18mpg in the playoffs and was largely ineffective. With Tobias coming in, KJ's minutes will be the first to get cut.

Now Bryant can earn his way into the rotation, but from what I have seen so far, I don't expect it. He is still getting lost on both ends of the court and his minutes have decreased from last year's.

Quote:


That's 10 if those two play. I would think Reed would get some chances especially with how Kornet struggled the last two series last year and being a year older.

Playing some and being a real part of the rotation are two very different things.

We want to keep the 5 best players on the court as much as we can without tiring them out, so that likely means ~34mpg for Wemby, Fox, Harper, Castle, Vassell. That is 170 minutes. That leaves 70 minutes per game for Kornet, Tobias, Julian, Keldon, Bryant, Reed, Barnes, etc. I think Kornet probably gets ~10 again, but could be fewer depending on the matchup. Tobias and Julian probably get ~25 each. So that's 60 minutes. You have ten more minutes to distribute to Keldon, Bryant, Reed, Barnes. If Keldon, Barnes, Bryant are hitting, I can see them getting minutes. If we need Reed's rebounding, I could possibly see him getting some. But it just isn't that likely overall. Who are you taking minutes away from in the above?

Quote:

It is possible they trim it to 8 but that means pretty drastic minute regressions from last year for KJ and means Bryant and Reed likely did not develop or fit as intended.

We would have cut KJs minutes more last year if we could have afforded to because he was bad in the playoffs. Bryant didn't get many minutes anyway, and a lof of them were garbage time.


Quote:

Will any of those 3 even be on the team next year if they can't crack playoff rotation at least situationally this year?


Yes. I think we keep Keldon with a contract similar to Luke's at about 5% of the cap. He is great for chemistry and and leadership, but also he is dependable and able to eat up a lot of the 20k regular season minutes. Bryant is still just 20yo. He should be a college junior right now. He has a ways to go on the cerebral side of the game, but I do think we keep him and continue trying to develop him.


Quote:

I would spend the next month working to find a bench rotation that makes it a strength compared to almost every other team. It seems like on paper it should be one of our biggest advantages outside of Wemby and our slashers.

I think they want to build the chemistry with their core first, and they need to add Tobias to the mix. I think you will see more experimentation and development closer to mid season.
superunknown
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Been wondering what the risk would be in giving Reed those Kornet minutes in the 2nd q. Those minutes/rotation breakdowns (seen them posted on reddit after every game, love em) have had me thinking. Would love Reed to get some PT and I'm perfectly fine with Kornet as the current backup but think Reed needs some experience too.

I like the idea of Carter Bryant but he needs to take minutes from KJ (and HB) and right now i don't think he's earning more time.
Guitarsoup
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I was saying that when we played Sacramento. I thought you should put Reed in against Sabonis for a trial by fire. We were up big and they didnt have the guns to come back. But I think that Billy and Mitch just want to develop the team chemistry with the players that can be more readily counted on and we will see more of Reed later in the season.

If you remember Bryant last year, he really didnt get much more than Garbage time until after Barnes went ice cold.

With Wemby and Kornet, I think they know that Reed will get his shot due to rest soon enough. With 16 games in the next 30 days, I think we see some more of him coming up.
Guitarsoup
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Average Joe
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Guitarsoup said:



TMac consistently has the dumbest takes I've ever heard.
jteagle
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Guitarsoup
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Average Joe said:

Guitarsoup said:



TMac consistently has the dumbest takes I've ever heard.

As good as his playoff record without the Spurs.
superunknown
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Let's be real, that checkerboard of a November schedule looks like some holiday feasts for most of the games. Totally hope we try new things and get some guys some in game minutes that are sorta meaningful.
AggieEP
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It's a silly take to attribute Duncan's success to the system but as for the other part, I think he's just trying to say that KG was an athletic freak that could do some things that Duncan couldn't do on the court, which is true.
Blonde Coffee Beans
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3 consecutive blocks by Wemby
"I don't care about your feelings OP. I'm not going to let fandom replace reason, thought, and history"
Backcountry Birds
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29 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks.....in 17 minutes

He's unreal!!!
Blonde Coffee Beans
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Half time

Wemby
29 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks, 2 steals, 2 assists

And has missed all his 3s
"I don't care about your feelings OP. I'm not going to let fandom replace reason, thought, and history"
Guitarsoup
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Like someone messing with the sliders on 2K
Guitarsoup
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Vic is now third in double-doubles in Spurs history.
 
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