I'm still a true believer in Reed, too.
Houston RocketsKelly Iko: You were high on Sheppard
during the predraft process, citing his floor spacing, defensive playmaking and overall half-court offensive IQ as reasons why his game should translate to the NBA. Through the first three months of the season, Sheppard is shooting less than 30 percent from 3, the Rockets hemorrhage points when he's on the floor (7.2 per 100 possessions) and he's still adjusting to NBA physicality.
What do you see when you watch him? And do you think there's a spot for him in Ime Udoka's tight rotation?
Sam Vecenie: Yeah, I'm not worried about Sheppard at this point. I didn't see much of a path to a significant role for him this season due to the presence of Fred VanVleet and knowing the role Jalen Green would play on this team. Those two were always going to have heavy usage within this group, and this season was always going to be a physical adjustment for Sheppard.
Due to the size issues, you can't play Sheppard with VanVleet who, despite his shooting struggles, plays 35 minutes per game because he's excellent at organizing the offense and communicating on defense while fighting through screens. VanVleet has still been worth about 4.5 wins this year according to
DunksandThrees's Estimated Plus Minus-based model, a number that has him currently ranked No. 11 in the NBA. That's wildly aggressive and I wouldn't have VanVleet near that mark, but he's still an above-average starting point guard. And, even though Green has improved a bit as a defender this season, I wouldn't trust a team's backcourt decision-making if they were playing a rookie lead guard and Green.
The minutes were unlikely to be there for Sheppard this year unless he was a top-100 player in the league from the jump, which rookies rarely are. On top of that, the continued emergence of Amen Thompson, with his ability to be a secondary playmaker on the court, along with Alperen engn's skill when Houston runs its offense through him, mean the Rockets can stagger the minutes of VanVleet, Green, Thompson and engn to ensure the team has enough creativity on the court. That reduces the impact of a true "backup point guard."
Would it be better if the Sheppard who played in summer league showed up and his play demanded he enter the lineup? Of course. But it doesn't feel like he's had a settled role at any point this year, either. The peripherals of the on/off numbers don't look that bad when you dig into the weeds. The team shoots better from both 2-point and 3-point range when he's on the court. They have a better true shooting percentage. Overall, the shot quality is about the same, per PBPStats.com. The big things that seem to be dragging Sheppard's on/off numbers down are rebounding and turnovers. The team gets fewer offensive and defensive rebounds when he's out there, which isn't his fault. They're converting an inordinately low number of their second-chance opportunities when he's on the court. The second issue is the team also turns the ball over more when he's on the court. That could easily be construed as his fault given he's the point guard, but he's also only averaging 1.8 turnovers per 36 minutes. So that's not particularly fair, either.
For me, the main scouting-based issues are on defense, where he struggles to guard anyone on the ball. For that, he needs to get stronger, which we knew was going to be an issueespecially when playing for a defensive-minded coach like Udoka. This is a real concern that needs targeted improvement.
But overall, none of this seems worrisome. Sheppard is a top-three pick drafted onto a team that has been in the top four in the Western Conference all season long. It's hard for one-and-done rookies to establish themselves in roles under those circumstances. I'd preach patience at this point with Sheppard. My guess is he looks drastically better in 2025-26. The shooting, passing and ball-screen skills we saw in summer league still project well at the next level.
Iko: Would you advocate for Sheppard to time in the G League? Or is it better developmentally to spend his time with the Rockets, regardless of whether he's getting consistent minutes or not?
Vecenie: Spending time in both arenas would make sense. Give him a few games here and there in Rio Grande Valley to get on-ball reps and let him play through some mistakes while getting adjusted to the increased athleticism of the pro game. Also, regularly bring him back to the Rockets to make sure he's on the right track in terms of strength training while also giving him a chance to see the NBA game up close. It doesn't feel like it has to be an either/or situation; the solution should include both.