The point of the spreadsheet I made was only to address the concern about losing our draft picks that will be in that range. The other context you're so concerned about doesn't matter. Based on the odds, Westbrook will still be a better player 4 years from now than anyone we would draft in the 20-28 range.

3rdGen2015 said:

---

After sleeping on this, I'm still not crazy about it. I just don't like Westbrook's inefficient chucker game.

---

I'm still feeling "wait and see" about it. Moving from the Thunder's system to our system will be very different. And who knows, this trade may cause Westbrook to significantly change his approach. I don't think it's fair to just copy-paste the Westbrook we've seen to this team.

I love all this negative energy out there surrounding the trade

"This is a massive gamble by the Rockets. Could work but could also set a very low floor."

You mean running it back with the same team that had one of the best winning percentages in the second half of the season after acquiring House and Rivers (both of whom are coming back this year). Then swapping an aging CP3 w/ Russ. To me the only concern is health, but you can say the same for every other team in the league. Oh, and we probably aren't done filling out the roster yet.

There will be an adjustment period to acclimate Russ to Dantoni's system, but theres time. Dantoni has coached Russ before in the Olympics, and is familiar with his game. I have confidence Pringles will work it out.

Hickory High said:

---

The point of the spreadsheet I made was only to address the concern about losing our draft picks that will be in that range. The other context you're so concerned about doesn't matter. Based on the odds, Westbrook will still be a better player 4 years from now than anyone we would draft in the 20-28 range.

---

You still aren't seeing the point of why your analysis is silly which is why you are probably still a gold star spreadsheet copy and paster and highlighter.

The Rockets hold all of their picks with the exception of the swap (which agreed is highly likely a 20-30 draft pick)... if you want to quantify value of the deal you need to look at the 2024-2026 picks. You'll have either old ass Harden and Westbrook or most likely a depleted roster relative to now. Maybe they'll still be 20 and lower picks, but being rational, the variance of them is wide open.

Still like the trade, but your analysis remains irrelevant to it or the Rockets situation.

The rational assumption is that, between then and now, Morey will make solid free agent signings that keep us competitive. That's what he's always done.

AG@RICE said:

---

I don't care about losing picks outside of the top 4:

1999 the rockets had 3 first round picks and got Dickerson, Turkcan and Bruce Drew....

In 2001 we got RJ, Jason Collins, and Brandon Armstrong (traded for Eddie Griffin)

In 2012 we drafted Lamb, White and Tjones....

None of these picks were going to single handedly change our fortunes. I'll worry about 2026 when we get there....if I get there.

---

98 was the Bryce Drew draft. If those picks could have been packaged to move up, Dirk and Pierce were 4 and 5 spots above Dickerson. With Perfect hindsight, those three picks without being traded could have been Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, and Nazr Mohammed.

2001 could have been Joe Johnson instead of Griffin. Or keep all three and get a combo of Richard Jefferson, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, and Gilbert Arenas.

12 wasn't a great draft, but they could have been packaged to move up to get Dame Lilliard, or been used on three of Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, and Evan Fornier.

The right picks could have changed fortunes, but teams have shown it is mostly a crapshoot.

Always? I count a lot of 8th and 9th in the West years... and those were when the Rockets were utilizing picks for contributors like Brooks, Landry, etc.

Again, like the move but you are pulling wool over your own eyes if you don't see the potential of this completely tanking the Rockets years in the future.

chjoak said:

---

ATM9000 said:

---

Hickory High said:

---

The point of the spreadsheet I made was only to address the concern about losing our draft picks that will be in that range. The other context you're so concerned about doesn't matter. Based on the odds, Westbrook will still be a better player 4 years from now than anyone we would draft in the 20-28 range.

---

You still aren't seeing the point of why your analysis is silly which is why you are probably still a gold star spreadsheet copy and paster and highlighter.

The Rockets hold all of their picks with the exception of the swap (which agreed is highly likely a 20-30 draft pick)... if you want to quantify value of the deal you need to look at the 2024-2026 picks. You'll have either old ass Harden and Westbrook or most likely a depleted roster relative to now. Maybe they'll still be 20 and lower picks, but being rational, the variance of them is wide open.

Still like the trade, but your analysis remains irrelevant to it or the Rockets situation.

---

His analysis is relevant in showing that building a team via the draft is very risky. Our current GM puts little value in the draft except with his ability to use the picks as assets. The fact that Harden & Westbrook will need to be replaced by the time those '24-'26 picks come around is irrelevant as long as Morey is our GM. High probability he would have traded them for other players anyway. I'd also wager that the '20-'23 picks have a good chance of eventually being traded for more proven guys as well.

---

Trade for more proven players with the... crazy dollars the Rockets will have available to build a team and stay under the luxury tax threshold. I'll bet the Rockets draft and hope for good replacements for guys like Gordon and Tucker but cheaper these next couple of seasons.

ATM9000 said:

---

Always? I count a lot of 8th and 9th in the West years... and those were when the Rockets were utilizing picks for contributors like Brooks, Landry, etc.

Again, like the move but you are pulling wool over your own eyes if you don't see the potential of this completely tanking the Rockets years in the future.

---

"Competitive" = out of the lottery or, at worst, 15th or 14th. And in the book The Undoing Project, Morey has stated that his view on the draft has changed over the course of his tenure. It is because of how bad/mediocre non-top 10 picks can be that he has shifted to being so anti-draft now.

CFTXAG10 said:

---

ATM9000 said:

---

Again, like the move but you are pulling wool over your own eyes if you don't see the potential of this completely tanking the Rockets years in the future.

---

I think the point is that Morey has always found a way to keep a competitive team on the floor even without high draft picks. He is a cap wizard, and no his moves don't always pan out, but he somehow finds a way to keep the wheel turning.

---

I get it but he's utilized draft picks like bullets. Take the Lowry for the pick that conveyed to OKC for Harden. I get that it is hard to build thru the draft... but at the same time... don't sleep on how Morey has leveraged picks in the past to actually stay pretty competitive.

I think what's different with this trade is it is categorically mortgaging the future to be competitive right now. Again, I don't mind it and now is the right time to take a shot. But Free Agents aren't going to magically appear in Houston if the cupboard is bare.

Hickory High said:

---

---

So our closing lineup COULD look like:

Westbrook
Harden
Iggy
Tucker
Capela

Or if we went smaller:

Westbrook
Harden
Gordon
Iggy
Tucker

Damn, that would actually be pretty stout defensively.

Agreed... but that's why the variance of the picks is way wider than 20-30 and since the draft bullets are limited there's a hell of a greater chance than any other time in the Morey era that those picks are top 5 or 10 picks.

ATM9000 said:

---

Agreed... but that's why the variance of the picks is way wider than 20-30 and since the draft bullets are limited there's a hell of a greater chance than any other time in the Morey era that those picks are top 5 or 10 picks.

---

Just gonna have to agree to disagree. Morey would never let that happen. We will either draft in the top 5 or outside the top 15, no in between

Hickory High said:

---

ATM9000 said:

---

Agreed... but that's why the variance of the picks is way wider than 20-30 and since the draft bullets are limited there's a hell of a greater chance than any other time in the Morey era that those picks are top 5 or 10 picks.

---

Just gonna have to agree to disagree. Morey would never let that happen. We will either draft in the top 5 or outside the top 15, no in between

---

Patrick Patterson, Jeremy Lamb, and Marcus Morris were all between 5 and 15.

Knew I'd have to specify or else someone would bring it up. I consider picks 14 and 15 to be just like 16-20, even though they're TECHNICALLY lottery picks.

Can't wait for those fast break alley oops

Terrible move by rockets

After whiffing on Butler it was either this or trade CP and Harden and rebuild. The current configuration wasn't going to work. If this fails miserably trade Russ and Harden in 2021-2022 off season and we didn't lose that much

My new ringtone:

I think the difficulty in fit is when they are playing together and James has the ball, defenses can sag off Russ, because he can't consistently make them pay with a 3 pointer (last two seasons below 30%, career 31%.)

Harden's strength is creating+drawing fouls, something he can't do as well off-ball and last year Harden only shot 16% of his threes on catch and shoot. Less than 11% of his total shots were assisted.

Similarly, Brodie shoots about 8.6% of his threes on catch and shoots and over the last 5 years, just under 17% of his shots were assisted.

MDA's offense has seemed to put Capela + 3 shooters around James (some combo of Ariza, Tucker, Paul, Green, House, Gordon) but Westrbook lacks that.

Paul was good at moving off ball - something we have never really seen from Westbrook.

Westbrook is obviously more explosive and can make defenses pay better than Paul did. But like Chris Paul, this will be a very interesting experiment.

Yeah off ball movement from Russ is key. I've seen so many videos of him just standing around when he doesn't have the ball in the last.

YNWA_AG said:

---

Yeah off ball movement from Russ is key. I've seen so many videos of him just standing around when he doesn't have the ball in the last.

---

Okc site from this year:

https://thunderousintentions.com/2019/01/20/okc-thunder-russell-westbrook-3/

lil99chris said:

---

In the current NBA setup, it is much easier to build a championship contender via free agency than the draft.

---

This. Can even argue this for the Warriors acquiring KD and Iggy.

Give me a team that competes now if it costs us a 2026 draft pick (which those players are about 5th/6th grade right now). Morey will find a way to keep the Rockets competitive even without draft picks, as he's proven the past 5 years (1 1st rd pick).