**Official San Antonio Spurs 2016-2017 Race For Seis**Staff Warning on OP

304,866 Views | 3630 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by GatorAg03
GatorAg03
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They need a hard cap like the NFL.
Pumpkinhead
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azulAg said:

i have not seen the NBA this boring well ever. And unless all the major all stars start conglomerating to the same teams i dont see this changing at all. I blame Golden state and KD


I think the more recent 'superteam' trend got started with Boston several years back when KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen all went there, then that was followed by LeBron, Bosh, wade in Miami...and now you got Cavs loaded with a big three of LeBron, Irving, Love and Golden State with their big Four.

And generally that 'superteam' approach has been successful in terms of winning most of the NBA titles the past several years, with a couple of exceptions.

Oklahoma City incredibly had a young Harden, Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka on one team...built mostly through the draft...but couldn't hold it together.'

Seems like NBA is trying to gradually make it harder though for All-Stars to just join up like they have been lately. Trying to make it so the home team can offer a lot more money for their star player to stay.
superunknown
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Someone's gonna offer Simmons 15-18m per and Spurs won't match. I feel this in my bones.
Deputy Travis Junior
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Aldridge has been such a huge disappointment. In this series, he hasn't once cleared 50% shooting or 30 points with our primary scorer out and 6'6 230 pound Green + a few scrubs covering him. If you think of some of the primo big men across NBA history, they would have lit the Warriors up every single game (still would have lost the games, but at least they would have gone down swinging). Aldridge on the other hand has lost without a whimper.

We need to move him. He's not a championship level 2nd option.
Enzo The Baker
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Lee has a partial tear in is patellar tendon. I feel bad for him. He's gonna miss out on some cash in the offseason.
Pumpkinhead
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I remember the 1989 NBA Finals really looking forward to watching the Showtime Lakers vs Badboy Pistons....the Playoffs building to that matchup...and then the Lakers first lost Byron Scott to injury and then Magic Johnson pulled his hamstring in Game 2 and was lost for the rest of series and Detroit thus swept Lakers 4-0 and series was a dud.

This kind of reminds me of that. We finally get Spurs vs Warriors in playoffs (first meeting since Golden State became great) and injuries wipe out one team and kill what could have been a great series.

Ulrich
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Barring someone offering something stupid, the Spurs need to match for Simmons. Excellent aggressive defense, acceptable three point shooting, a nice midrange game, and the ability to slash and finish at the rim... there's your Manu replacement. Finally a guard/wing who doesn't require smoke and mirrors to fit in on an NBA basketball court. It may only be one four year deal that he's at his peak, but I'll take that to get a competitor who will start or come off the bench as needed during Kawhi's peak.

Although I hope Manu comes back, surely he only has one season at even lower minutes left.

Green is what he is. His deal is fine, and when you layer in the continuity he provides we should keep him unless that would prevent a blockbuster acquisition.

Mills had a tough playoffs, but it's been a round peg in a square hole due to losing Parker and Leonard. We've tried to make him a playmaker who can spoon feed a struggling, passive Aldridge and it hasn't worked. Hopefully it has made him more affordable, but with his effort and shooting I still like him coming off the bench for the right price.

Unless Aldridge is out there playing through some debilitating injury we don't know about, they should try to move him. He did not do his job this year or last year and he's not worth anywhere close to what he's being paid.

Gasol will most likely opt in, but maybe someone will offer him a longer deal worth less per season that makes sense. He could also be a good trade piece. But with the way the NBA is going and his age, any really good small ball team keeps him off the court. I'd rather have a Lee who is really cheap, more mobile, and just as effective offensively or a Dedmon who rebounds more consistently and puts in the work on defense. In any case, if you're moving Aldridge and/or Gasol there's space to pick up a decent forward.

Anderson has another year on his deal, and I see no reason to offer an extension. This is his third season and he's still more or less a gimmick: a good offensive play every one in a while but gets absolutely murdered on defense by everyone. All those steals dry up in the playoffs when he's not in there against the Philadelphia bench in garbage time and teams actually value the ball. His minutes should go to Bertans.

Next season is Murray's chance. If he's the guard he shows flashes of being, he takes some of the load off Leonard and increases Dedmon's value as a roll man exponentially. Transition offense is already substantially better than with Parker. It would be nice to have multiple slashers on the court. And it puts Mills back in his correct role as a second team marksman.
Matsui
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Nice write up. Thanks!
Matsui
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With the increased cap numbers its going to be weird reading these average players on a team getting $10 mil a year
LawHall88
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The whole problem with the "move Aldridge" idea is, who you gonna get for him that's better?

Even replacing Lee with someone of similar quality at a similar price will be a challenge.
Guitarsoup
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If Anderson wants to be a player in the league, he needs to spend every moment of the off-season adding muscle so he can play a Diaw-type game against guys that can't run past him.
Guitarsoup
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LawHall88 said:

The whole problem with the "move Aldridge" idea is, who you gonna get for him that's better?

Even replacing Lee with someone of similar quality at a similar price will be a challenge.
If Redick and Paul leave, S&T for Blake Griffin. Sure he's made of glass, but at least he doesn't suck at basketball.
GatorAg03
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After two season, LMA apparently has a crap post game and isn't really a shooting threat either. I can count on one hand the number of games LMA has been a real difference maker on offense since he has been here. His defense advanced metrics look solid but a ton of that is Kawhi and the system. Even Dedmon and Pau have decent defensive stats. A ton of bigs are out there can play adequate defense with Kawhi on the court.

LMA really doesn't help the Spurs "go big" against small ball teams (like Houston and GSW). He was constantly defended by smaller and weaker players and did little. And he certainly doesn't help you if you want to run and go small and isn't even that great in pick and roll.

I would much rather have more athletic big for cheap like Dedmon or a true back to the basket center like Cousins. To be honest give mea scrub like Splitter (if he can get healthy for cheap) and just get rid of LMA for draft picks and salary space. I dont care if we get nothing back but salary cap room. It still will be a net positive for the Spurs for him not to be here.

I think you float him on the trade block for an upgrade to any position but small forward or just for a draft pick or even nothing but cap space. I bet some team will bite. He is the main problem on this team.
GatorAg03
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But the first and main offseason question in my mind is do the Spurs double down on the staying big philosophy or do they finally go small ball like the rest of the league?

That's the question of the offseason and what they do with LMA and Gasol will tell the story I suppose.
Guitarsoup
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The problem with small ball is I don't think you are going to beat the Warriors by going small. Cleveland did it with Bron/Love/Thompson. Going big can give you an advantage. Going small, you will never match up with their four.
GatorAg03
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I'm certainly not against staying big in a league going small. It will definitely be hard to out run the 4 all star small ball lineup at GSW. However, if that's your philosophy then you have to have true back to the basket posts that can make smaller and weaker players pay and you need knock down shooters when they are doubled to space the floor.

That back to the basket game is probably the hardest skillset to find. Marc Gasol, Cousins and a couple others have it, but not many. Pau Gasol at his age and LMA certainly don't.

If your bigs being guarded by a small ball lineup isn't a net offensive positive for you down low, then the experiment failed before it began.

Plus Murray isn't a great shooter (nor is Parker) so you automatically have a starting PG situation that isn't ideal for that big lineup (which was a major issue these playoffs).

There are no easy decisions here, but to expect LMA and Gasol to magically become dominant in the post is alot of wishful thinking. We could rarely even play them at the same time productively.
Ulrich
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There's a big difference between going big with Aldridge/Gasol vs Love/Thompson.

Love/Thompson has more in common with the Diaw "medium ball" lineups we used to run. Diaw at PF/C creates a lot of flexibility on both ends because he could switch on to almost anyone defensively and slow them down long enough for the help to arrive while at the same time could punish anyone too small or too big who tried to cover him on defense.

You can go big with Thompson/Love because they are committed and mobile enough to chase guys around on the perimeter and are also enthusiastic rebounders who can punish small defenders. Aldridge doesn't overwhelm small defenders in the post or on the glass and doesn't really try to take anything away when he gets switched onto a guard defensively. Gasol fights for rebounds, but is inconsistent offensively and isn't a credible defender on the perimeter.

That's why I like Lee for "medium ball". He passes well out of the high post, punishes little guys who can't overplay his strong hand because of how good he is with both hands, and rebounds well. He's not a great defender, but he tries. On the perimeter, plays close enough to take away the three and moves his feet which would give a decent help defender time to cut off the play.

Bertans is a stretch four who passes pretty well on the move, but so far not much of a rebounder or mid-post player who can anchor a biggish lineup vs small ball.
Deputy Travis Junior
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Quote:

If your bigs being guarded by a small ball lineup isn't a net offensive positive for you down low, then the experiment failed before it began.
Pendragon12
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Surprising no one, Pop has ruled Kawhi out for game 4. Lee is also out.
GatorAg03
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Great post. The problem is that even late form Duncan (a true back to the basket big who can punish smaller defenders but still be a plus or neutral defender in the pick and roll) or fat but good Diaw (can punish smaller defenders, can hit the 3, pass out if doubles and still be an adequate defender) are very hard players to find. Spurs have neither type on the roster right now. If Lee is the closest, then we aren't that close. I love his effort but he isn't the key to a championship.

I'm not convinced playing Kawhi at the 4 (like LeBron) wouldn't solve some of these problems if we could only find a PG who can create and shoot the 3 respectably (CP3 please). I think Lilliard was a big reason LMA looked good in Portland. CP3 might have a similar effect on him if we can't get rid of LMA.

If we could just get rid of Gasol and sign CP3 and fill in around him with low pay players, then that would be our best, realistic chance to upgrade this offseason.
LawHall88
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I still think the plan is to bring the same basic core back for one more year and look to rebuild the following season, when Aldridge, Gasol, and Parker are all of the books.

Of course, Parker's injury complicates that plan.
GatorAg03
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The big risk is the free agent class in 2018 isn't as strong and Kawhi will be close to the end of his contract. How much longer is Pop going to coach and will Kawhi want to stay around for a rebuild?

You do have a WCF team right now, even if they are solidly behind GSW. I think you have to be aggressive this offseason. You can't waste a prime Kawhi year with LMA, Gasol and Parker all pretty much contributing little for their contracts.

I think CP3 is the clear answer. If you can get him do so, if not I guess you bring back the same group and wait for 2018 and hope you can convince Pop and Kawhi to stick around for the rebuild.
GatorAg03
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My ideal lineup:

CP3, Murray, Parker (retires)
Green, Manu (vet min)
Kawhi, Simmons (6-8 million, start him and trade Green if it takes $10 million to keep him)
LMA (if we can get CP3 it's worth keeping him to see if that helps), Lee (vet minimum)
Dedmon (if reasonable), Splitter (Vet min)

Try to find another veteran pure shooter (Reddick if he wants to win a ring for cheap) and maybe a young, athletic big in the draft and whatever overseas player the Spurs have stashed that has potential.

I think against GS a lineup of LMA, Kawhi at the 4, Simmons, Green and CP3 would be pretty darn solid and have a decent shot to win.
Ulrich
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I definitely don't think that Lee is "the answer", but I would have no qualms about him playing more minutes against small ball and liked having him on the squad. The point was more about how going big with Aldridge/Gasol isn't going to do the trick. I do think Aldridge was supposed to be one of those unicorns who was mobile enough to play the center against small ball lineups and still dominate on offense, but he failed when it mattered.

I almost wonder if Portland was ideal because Lillard was good enough that Aldridge wanted to prove that he was the face of the franchise and arguably WAS the more important player... then he came to San Antonio and it wasn't even close, so he threw in the towel and decided to be a role player. Or he just got that big contract and decided to take a couple years off. If he has a resurgence in his next contract year we'll know. Either way, the Aldridge that Pop and Duncan courted isn't what we have. He's eating up a lot of cap space to be a role player who vanishes when the team needs him most.
LawHall88
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Gasol will opt back in. No way we could get "value" for Aldridge, We really don't have much in the way of trade assets at this point. I just don't see a clear path to overhauling the roster this year.

Parker's salary will be on the books next year, or at least some portion of it, regardless of whether he plays next season.

Decent chance we lose Simmons, also. There is always some team that will overpay a Spurs rotation peice. How much is Boban making this year, or Baynes? More than we could or should pay for either.

Mills, we'll see. He might be able to make more money elsewhere, but he may be a guy, like Green, who will take a little less to stay.
LawHall88
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Enzo The Baker said:

Lee has a partial tear in is patellar tendon. I feel bad for him. He's gonna miss out on some cash in the offseason.
Hopefully the initial diagnosis was wrong:

Quote:

Lee was diagnosed with a partially torn patellar tendon in his left knee during the Spurs' Game 3 loss to the Warriors, according to sources. Popovich said Sunday, however, that the injury isn't as serious as first believed.

"He's probably not gonna play, but I don't think it's serious," Popovich said. "He did an MRI, and we haven't gotten the results yet. But hopefully he just got like a bruise or something like that. It didn't really swell up, it just got stiff. So he'll probably be out."
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19431402/san-antonio-spurs-expect-david-lee-miss-game-4-vs-golden-state-warriors
DeangeloVickers
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Getting rid of Aldridge capspace is the value
LawHall88
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Ryno01 said:

Getting rid of Aldridge capspace is the value
But someone has to give up cap space to get him.
Ulrich
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I haven't gone through the whole free agent list or done the math, but Paul Millsap would be a pretty ideal addition at the right price if we can offload Aldridge or Gasol. If we lose guards and consider Murray the PG of the future, Shaun Livingston would be an excellent addition with his size, versatility, and throwback hair/mustache.
GatorAg03
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Lost in the well deserved discussion on the underperformance of our bigs:

Game 1:
Green - 8pts, 2ast, 3TO, 3/5FG
Mills - 5pts, 3ast, 1TO, 1/8FG

Game 2:
Green - 5pts, 0ast, 0TO, 2/7FG
Mills - 5pts, 1ast, 1TO, 2/6FG

Game 3:
Green - 7pts, 2ast, 4TO, 3/11FG
Mills - 7pts, 6ast, 1TO, 2/10FG

Defense has been very bad as well from those two. Simmons defense has been much better than Greens for the entire playoffs.
Guitarsoup
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Lee torn patellar tendon.
Deputy Travis Junior
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LawHall88 said:

Ryno01 said:

Getting rid of Aldridge capspace is the value
But someone has to give up cap space to get him.
Phili loves hoarding big men for whom they do not have enough minutes. Let's trade him to them. It'll be a fitting punishment for what he did to SA.
Deputy Travis Junior
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What sort of money is George Hill going to get this offseason? He's a competent starter who still gets along with the team (a year or two ago, there was a pic floating around of a team paintball game, and George Hill was randomly in it).
Ulrich
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

What sort of money is George Hill going to get this offseason? He's a competent starter who still gets along with the team (a year or two ago, there was a pic floating around of a team paintball game, and George Hill was randomly in it).

Only if the contract includes a provision wherein he agrees never to dye his hair again.
aggie_fan13
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

What sort of money is George Hill going to get this offseason? He's a competent starter who still gets along with the team (a year or two ago, there was a pic floating around of a team paintball game, and George Hill was randomly in it).
I think that ship has sailed
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