Rockets last 4 allows for a decent finish:

@ NO
GS
@ MIA
NO

Wins in the next two would give Houston the H2H tiebreakers over the Jazz and Suns...if they can at least split the B2B with Denver, the Rockets would own the next meaningful tiebreaker (conference record) if the season series is tied.

Next 2 games are big. Need to keep increasing our lead over Utah and Phoenix and hold in to this playoff spot. Ride the momentum to the playoffs!

I guess its feasible we could jump the clips and grizz, although not many teams are playing better than the grizz. Wouldn't want to pass up the clips just to get into the 4/5 matchup with Memphis. Out of Oklahoma City, San Antonio and LA, I would probably want San Antonio at this point, unless bynum continues to get ejected every time he plays the rockets.

Looking at next year....i don't think the Rockets can keep Dragic. He's gonna get more $$$ than the Rockets can give him. As well as (probably) a starting role.

I didn't realize Dallas was on verge of missing the playoffs

I think you're right simple, but having two starting caliber point guards is not a luxury we can afford when we still don't have a super star. Now, could we be more free to package Lowry in a trade to someone if we had Dragic signed? Sure. And we signed Lowry to a large deal for a backup point guard when Aaron Brooks was still our starter and that panned out.

Correct if im wrong but we have a **** ton of cap space next year and no superstar on the market

****t ton? no. they will have approximately $5.87 million in salary cap room.

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the Houston Rockets will have a minimum of approximately $35.01 million in salary commitments to six (remaining) players for the 2012-13 season: Kevin Martin ($12.44 million), Luis Scola ($9.41 million), Kyle Lowry ($5.75 million), Patrick Patterson ($2.10 million), Marcus Morris ($1.91 million), Chandler Parsons ($888,250), Fisher’s buyout ($644,005), a waived Samuel Dalembert ($1.5 million partial guarantee) and a waived Smith (about $381,000).

However, it is highly likely that the Rockets exercise the fourth-year option on Chase Budinger for the league minimum salary of $885,120. It is also very likely that the Rockets will not waive Smith, since the additional amount he’d be owed if not waived would be less than the amount of a roster charge (should the Rockets have fewer than 12 players otherwise counting against their cap). Add to that the rookie scale cap hold for Donatas Motiejunas ($1.13 million), who will likely be coming over next season, and the Rockets’ total salary commitments increase to about $37.41 million for nine players.

Between the Rockets’ lack of other centers (Camby will be a free agent this summer) and the fact that he can walk and chew gum at the same time, it is probable that Dalembert will not be waived and that his full $6.7 million salary counts against the Rockets’ cap this summer. That puts the Rockets’ cap figure at $42.61 million for ten players. (NOTE: I believe the Rockets have until July 8 to waive Dalembert without guaranteeing his entire salary; so there may be the possibility that a trade could be worked out during the July Moratorium with Dalembert being shipped elsewhere on July 8 for salary-matching purposes or as an attractive financial asset, with the acquiring team either keeping him or waiving him immediately in a salary dump. See my previous analysis of Dalembert’s contract)

Restricted free agent Courtney Lee will have a cap hold of about $5.56 million (more details on Lee’s free agency can be found here); and Goran Dragic, an unrestricted free agent, will have a cap hold of about $4.01 million (details on Dragic’s free agency here). With these additions, the Rockets’ total salary commitments further increase to $52.18 million for twelve players.

Based on next season’s salary cap figure ($58.044 million, at which the salary cap will be artificially set before resetting based on the new BRI split in 2013), in order for the Rockets to maintain rights to their current players, they will have approximately $5.87 million in salary cap room.

That’s without taking into account (a) re-signing Camby, (b) the cap holds for the Rockets’ 2012 first round picks and (c) the increased cap figure for Motiejunas if the team signs him to 120% of his rookie scale salary in order to get him into summer league before the start of 2012 free agency. If, for example, the Rockets and the New York Knicks both miss the playoffs, Dallas secures a top-10 record, the Rockets end up with the # 11, # 14 and # 22 picks, and if the team signs each of those players and Motiejunas to 120% of their rookie scale salaries in order to get them into summer league play on time, then the Rockets would be left with only a negligible amount of available cap room with their current set of players (less than $440,000).

Before anyone beats his/her head against a wall, decrying that the Rockets won’t have any cap room after all, the Rockets can just as easily have plenty of cap room. If, for instance, the Rockets (1) make the playoffs, (2) timely waive Dalembert and (3) let Lee, Dragic and Camby walk in free agency, then their cap room with the current roster would jump up to about $17.03 million.

What this means is that the Rockets will be able to easily afford one maximum salary free agent… if they are willing (and, more importantly, able) to lure one to Houston. They are also in a flexible enough position that they can make some minor moves (e.g., trading Dalembert, packaging multiple 2012 first round picks to move up or down, or even paying another team to eat a small salary) in order to keep one or more of their free agents. Heck, if there just isn’t anything out there in free agency on which it’s worth using their cap space, the Rockets could even choose to bring back their free agents (assuming they can get them locked into reasonable deals) and save some cap room for 2013 (when Martin, Dalembert and others come off the books).

And almost none of this analysis takes into account that the Rockets will make trades. If the 2012 NBA Draft ends without the Rockets having made at least one trade, I will be shocked. A draft-day (or later offseason) trade of Martin or Scola could dramatically increase the Rockets’ available cap room to sign free agents or to provide further flexibility in future trades.

Conclusion
The Rockets have set themselves up nicely to make a run at a major acquisition next summer, either via free agency or via trade, by positioning themselves as one of several NBA teams that will have enough cap room to sign a maximum salary free agent. Or they can make some moves for the future while still preserving salary cap flexibility for 2013 and beyond. Or they can potentially add to their list of talented players on reasonably-priced deals if they retain Lee and/or Dragic, adding even more flexibility to trade other parts going forward in their pursuit of a star trade acquisition.

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For sure: $30.2M
KMart: $13M
Scola: $9.5M
Lowry: $5.7M
Morris: $2M

Qualifying Offer: $3.2M
Lee: $3.2M (no brainer)

Team Options: $9.7M
Dalembert: $6.7M - maybe/probably
Patterson: $2M - yes
Budinger: $1M - yes

So that gives you $43M right there. This year's cap was $58M and it shouldnt' go up much, if at all.

Here are your UFAs playing significant minutes: Camby (Currently $9.2M), Dragic (currently $2.1M), Parsons (league min)

You can assume Dragic will get closer to Lowry money, Parsons will get a bump, and Camby will get Dalembert money.

We COULD move money around and squeeze in a max free agent and then sign Lee, Patt, Bud, and Parsons to fill in around them, but then you don't have a center.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Donatas Motiejunas, our 7 foot Lithuanian player who we got in a draft package with Jonny Flynn. Would have played with the Rockets this year probably if there wasn't all the lockout issues.

Is there anyway they can amnnesty K-Mart's salary next season? I really don't see him sticking unless he blows up if he comes back for the playoffs.

I will be severely pissed if we don't trade Kmart for a minimum of a case of Gatorade. I loathe that worthless p.o.s.

You can't trade unless you have.enough money coming back or a trade exception. We could still amnesty him, but i doubt we would.

Why would we not amnesty Martin? I think this team has proven that they are at least as good if not better without him and it would clear $13mil off the books.

Because for most of his career he's maintained the ability to be a top 10 type scorer at a high percentage, and even if he doesn't add much else he still brings value to a team who needs someone who can create theri own shot, put points on the board, and can be paired with an athletic wing who is more defensively focused to hide his shortcomings. Why would you amnesty him, when he still has some decent trade value and you could get something for him?

I dont care what moves the Rockets make other than keeping Dragic the guy is a legit bad ass.

Is anyone REALLY going to be interested in trading anything of value for Martin?

He's a top scorer when healthy for sure but its not like the team has missed him much in his absence.

Best case scenario is Morey trades him for a future 1st rounder.

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brings value to a team who needs someone who can create theri own shot,

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Are you serious? Kmart can NOT create his own shot to save his life. He's a mediocre ball handler, atrocious defender, can't create any type of shot that's isn't a pick & roll, a good three point shooter and an amazing flopper. The nights he averages 25 ppg go look at how many of those are FTs. You'll be shocked. Kmart is a total non fit to this team, he is better suited as a sixth man on a good championship team

Who cares how many of those are free throws and you're crazy if you don't think he can create his own shot. He wouldn't score 20+ ppg for most of his career if he.couldn't.

You're high sir. Claiming Kmart can create his own shot is ridiculous. I work for the rockets and there isn't a person I work with that would agree with you.

With the new rules in place regarding what is considered a shooting foul, his production has gone down. Last season, he attempted 8 free throws per game. This season, he averages 4 FTs per game.

I just don't think you can get much for Kmart in a trade. If Morey can then thats great, but if not then you amnesty him.

Speaking of projects, what's Motiejunas looking like?

Well I am not down on K Mart, but if it came down to deciding to keep Dragic or amnesty K Mart I would amnesty K Mart.

I felt the trade of A Brooks to Phoenix for 1st and Dragic was down right highway robbery. I have always liked Dragic, mentored and stuck behind Nash at Phoenix and then Lowery here. He was nails at the end of last year. I would of tried to re up him then for cheaper.

Here is the deal, what big stud FA is going to be available to the Rockets, D Williams?! A NO! and the combo of Lowery and Dragic is better then he is anyway.

They need to keep Dragic, those two guys cause a lots of problems for teams.

I just don't see any stud big man coming out that is worth more then Dragic. Patterson is still young. We got the kid in Europe, we got this other kid G Smith and we have some draft picks coming.

Here is the real deal, it takes about 3 to 4 years for a legit NBA player to develop especially the inside guys. They have to mature physically, mentally and it would be nice to have a system.

The Rockets system really fits Dragic and they have proven that they can put both of them on the floor and it just creates havoc for teams. They get along well too.



[This message has been edited by OPAG (edited 4/10/2012 11:37a).]

Here is a link on Motiejunas:

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=LCZ

The Rockets asked to get stronger on the boards, he leads the league in defensive rebounds.

He is a young guy with a lot of upside, like most young guys is going to have to learn how to be consistent. He's got the good to be something special, doesn't mean he will be but he has to tools to be.

Dragic is not gonna re-sign with the Rockets. He wants to be a starter and deserves to be one with his performance this year while Lowry was out.

quote:

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For sure: $30.2M
KMart: $13M
Scola: $9.5M
Lowry: $5.7M
Morris: $2M

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You need to add Parsons at $900k. He's under a guaranteed contract, he's not up for FA. You also need to add Greg Smith at about $760k. Dalembert's partial guarantee at $1.5M, Fisher's buyout at $650k, and Donatas's rookie scale hold of $1.13M.

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Qualifying Offer: $3.2M
Lee: $3.2M (no brainer)

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Lee's cap figure won't be $3.2M until he signs the QO, which he may not, he may sign an offer sheet. Until he signs something, his cap hold is $5.5M when you're calculating salary cap space for this summer.

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Team Options: $9.7M
Dalembert: $6.7M - maybe/probably
Patterson: $2M - yes
Budinger: $1M - yes

So that gives you $43M right there. This year's cap was $58M and it shouldnt' go up much, if at all.

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No, those 11 players (Dalembert, Martin, Motiejunas, Morris, Scola, Lowry, Budinger, Parsons, Lee, Patterson, Smith) brings you to about $48.2M. That's about $10M under the cap, not enough for a max FA. And if you want to go over the cap to re-sign Dragic, his cap hold is $4M, which only leaves you with $6M under the cap.

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Here are your UFAs playing significant minutes: Camby (Currently $9.2M), Dragic (currently $2.1M), Parsons (league min)

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Parsons is not an UFA, nor does he make the minimum. He signed a 4 year deal and will make about $900k next year.

quote:

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We COULD move money around and squeeze in a max free agent and then sign Lee, Patt, Bud, and Parsons to fill in around them, but then you don't have a center.

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Huh? Parsons is not a FA. And why would the rockets make Budinger an UFA and have to competitively bid for him when they own a team option at the minimum? And who is Patt? Patterson? The rockets already exercised his 3rd-year option, he's not going to be a FA either.

The rockets can clear enough money to sign a max FA, but only by waiving Dalembert, and renouncing Camby, Lee, and Dragic. Once you renounce Lee and Dragic though to sign your max FA, you lose their bird rights and they become UFA's and then the rockets would only have the MLE to split between them which would make them good as gone.

I think what Morey will do is look at the 2012 FA landscape, decide no one is worth a max deal (Howard was the big potential prize but he's off the table) who fits the rockets roster, re-sign some of his own FAs, and save the cap space for 2013.


[This message has been edited by cdhaggie07 (edited 4/10/2012 1:22p).]

This team is looking really good right now, Im loving the Camby-Dalembert combo in the paint!

Re-sign everyone but Camby, amnesty KMart and sign Dwight Howard to a max deal. Hello title.

Howard is not going to be a FA after the season. He has one more season with the Magic.

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Dragic is not gonna re-sign with the Rockets. He wants to be a starter and deserves to be one with his performance this year while Lowry was out.

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ship lowry out..

Lowry, draft picks and who ever else it takes for Howard

Lowry will be great trade bait. His contract isn't bad at all. Would really like to keep Dragjc

We are not getting Howard, guys. He doesn't want to come here and we can't offer Orlando enough in return. Not happening.

What is enough for Orlando? They aren't going to get some blockbuster deal for him considering his expiring contract. If you get Howard and the opportunity to resign him for just Lowry, draft picks, scola etc. you do it. Dwight Howard will NOT be in a magic uniform next season if the dont get him extended by July

[This message has been edited by Mr.Bond (edited 4/10/2012 3:27p).]

The Lakers offer of Bynum and Gasol would certainly be 10x any deal we could offer, plus Howard would re sign there.